CLIMATE ACTION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA CLIMATE ACTION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA .
British Columbia Climate Facts - PICS 2013-Briefing... · 1 British Columbia Climate Facts...
Transcript of British Columbia Climate Facts - PICS 2013-Briefing... · 1 British Columbia Climate Facts...
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British Columbia Climate Facts Historical (1900-‐2012 trend) based on the Provincial Climate Data Set Temperatures have increased in BC
q Winter (December, January, February): • Temperatures increased 2.1 °C [0.6 to 3.4] °C over
1900-‐2012 [Amounts in square brackets indicate approximate 5 to 95% confidence intervals].
• More warming in the north-‐east than elsewhere. • Frost days per year decreased 24 [17 to 32] days
(over the period 1900-‐2011) q Summer (June, July, August):
• Temperatures increased 1.1 °C [0.6 to 1.5]°C • Summer temperatures have warmed more or less
uniformly across BC PrecipitaYon appears to have increased (low confidence).
• Trend esYmates are very uncertain because sparse precipitaYon observaYons during the first half of the 20th century make it difficult to esYmate long term trends reliably.
• Winter precipitaYon increased 18.3% [-‐0.8 to 37.7]% over 1900-‐2012.
• Summer precipitaYon increased 19.2% [6.5 to 31.8]%
Future (change between 1986-‐2005 and 2081-‐2100) under a moderate emissions scenario (IPCC RCP4.5) Long term warming and precipitaYon change will depend upon future greenhouse gas emissions
• The pa_ern of projected change is the same for all emissions scenarios, but becomes more pronounced with greater emissions.
• The IPCC projects global mean warming is likely to be in the range 1.1 °C to 2.6°C under RCP4.5
ProjecYons for BC for 2081-‐2100 under RCP 4.5 [Amounts in square brackets indicate the likely range of possibiliYes]. q Winter temperature:
• Warming of 2.9 °C [1.4 to 5.9]°C • More warming in the north-‐east than elsewhere • 31 [17 to 51] fewer frost days
q Summer temperature: • Warming 2.4 °C [1.3 to 4.3]°C • Warming roughly uniform across BC
q Winter PrecipitaYon: • Increase of 10.4% [-‐0.2 to 25.5]%
q Summer precipitaYon • Increase of 2.6% [-‐7.0 to 9.9]% • Possible moistening in the north and drying in the
southern mainland and south central regions
Hydrology projecYons show most interior river basins are projected to exhibit increased winter flows, weaker and earlier spring freshet, and lower summer flows
For more informaYon: Pacific Climate Impacts ConsorYum University of Victoria www.PacificClimate.org (250) 721-‐6236
Sept 30, 2013