The Importance of Climate

Observations from Space

Prof. Stephen Briggs

European Space Agency

Credit: Victor & Kennel, Nature Climate Change, 2014.

The importance of observations………

Global Climate Observations – history

• Flamsteed, Cassini (c.1650-1700)• Humboldt (1769-1859)• Maury and the Brussels Conference (1853)• International Meteorological Org. (1873)• International Polar Years and IGY (1957)• World Weather Watch and GARP (1967)• World Climate Conference (1979) and the World Climate Programme• Villach (1985), Brundtland (1987) and the

IPCC (1988)• World Climate Conference-2 (1990)

Second World Climate Conference

(WCC-2) Ministerial Session

UN Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC) (May 1992)

Article 4 Commitments

Article 5 Research and Systematic Observation

All Parties shall:

1(g) Promote and cooperate in scientific, technological, technical, socio-

economic and other research, systematic observation and development

of data archives related to the climate system……….

In carrying out their commitments under Article 4, paragraph 1(g), the Parties shall:

(a) Support and further develop…programs and networks or organizations aimed

at defining, conducting, assessing and financing research, data collection and

systematic observation, taking into account the need to minimize duplication

of effort;

(b) Support international and intergovernmental efforts to strengthen systematic

observation….particularly in developing countries, and to promote access to,

and the exchange of, data and analyses thereof……

GCOS Essential Climate Variables

GCOS Essential Climate Variables

Road Map for 2014 to 2016

WCRP Conference 2011

Status report

2014 2015 2016COP21 COP22COP20

New Plan

August

October

For Public ReviewDraft of

Finalisation

Summer

Finalisation

SPARC Data Workshop 2013

IPCC AR5 2013/2014

UNFCCC National Reports

GCOS AOPC TOPC OOPC

GEO Work Plan Symposium (April 2014)

WIGOS Planning IOC GOOS Planning

Space Architecture–ECV Inv.

ESA CCI QA4ECVCORE-CLIMAX

GCOS Adaptation Workshop 2013

GCOS GOFC-GOLD Mitigation Workshop (5-7 May 2014)

WCRP-IPCC WG I Workshop (Sep 2014)

GCOS-IPCC WG II and DRR Workshop (Nov 2014)

WCRP WDAC (May 2014)

CEOS-CGMS Response

Report to SBSTA41on status

Report to SBSTA43

Report to SBSTA45Submission of new Plan

EUMETSAT-WCRP Climate Symposium (Oct 2014)

GCOS Planning and documents

First image of the Earth from space

11

ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use

ESA Climate Change Initiative

System Context

FCDR

FCDR

FCDR

Satellites Ground

Segments

CCIClimate

DataUsers

Level 1b

Level 1b

Level 1b

Level 1b

Level 1b

Level 1b

Level 1b

Climate Reanalysis

Climate Modellers

ECV DP

ECV DP

ECV DP

ESA

NASA

Eumetsat

NOAA

Jaxa

…

Others Climate Services

Scope of extended CCI

CCI Products Time Coverage (Current)

Cloud

Ozone

Aerosol

GHG

Sea Ice

Sea Level

SST

Ocean Colour

Glaciers

Ice Sheet

Land Cover

Fire

Soil Moisture

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

2

1

8

3

3

2

2

2

1

2

2-3 measurements per glacier over the period

4

1

The Climate Change Initiative in IPCC AR5 WGI

Results from the CCI are cited in AR5, notably:

• CCI Glaciers played a leading role in creating the first globally-complete glacier inventory, the Randolph Glacier Inventory.

• CCI Sea Level produced improved Global Mean Sea Level estimates using Envisat data.

• The Ice sheets Mass Balance Intercomparison Exercise, involving CCI Ice Sheets, has led to improved confidence in the measurement of ice sheet mass balance and the associated global sea level contribution.

Further CCI projects are also citedin the report:

Glaciers_cci• Observations: Cryosphere• Sea Level Change

Greenhouse_Gases_cci• Carbon and Other Biogeochemical

Cycles

Ice_Sheets_cci• Observations: Cryosphere• Sea Level Change

Sea_Level_cci• Observations: Cryosphere • Sea Level Change

Ozone_cci• Evaluation of Climate Models

Sea_Surface_Temperature_cci• Observations: Atmosphere and Surface

Soil_Moisture_cci• Observations: Atmosphere and Surface

1990 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

50

0

-50

-100

-150

-200

-250

-300

-350

Ice

mas

s lo

ss (

Gt/

yr)

-400

Previous surveys: Antarctica

imbie

Gravimetry

Radar Altimetry

Interferometry

Laser altimetry

1mm

50

0

-50

-100

-150

-200

-250

-300

-350

1990 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Ice

mas

s lo

ss (

Gt/

yr)

-400

Previous surveys: Greenland

imbie

Gravimetry

Radar Altimetry

Interferometry

Laser altimetry

1mm

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

0

Combined

Greenland

Antarctica

Increased ice sheet mass losses

10

8

6

4

2

12

0.27 mm per yr

0.95 mm per year

imbie

Sea

leve

l co

ntr

ibu

tio

n (

mm

)

CryoSat: Yearly Ice Loss in Greenland

Courtesy: Helm et al. (2014)

Digital Elevation Model

2003-2008 2011-2012

IMBIE CryoSat

-189±20 km3/yr -352±29 km3/yr

• Unique (first ever) combination of S1A stripmap and TerraSAR-X SAR data

provides first map of Austfonna ice speed in 2014

• Data show that glacier at Cap Mohn has experienced a rapid acceleration

Ice Speed (kilometres per year)

0 4

1995 (ERS) 2008 (ALOS) 2014 (TSX-S1)

Credit: N. Gourmelen, University of Edinburgh

Sentinel-1A: Svalbard Ice Cap

Glacierarea

Inventory

Elevation change

dh/dttrendsfrom

altimetry

mean changes fromDEM differencing

Velocity

DisplacementVectors

Glacier products

7/10/201523

Climate Impact on Marine Ecosystem StateImpact of El Niño variability on ocean primary producers

Impact on Phytoplankton Indicators:• Chlorophyll• Primary Production• Phenology (bloom timing, growth duration)

Change in forcing:• Climate Index• El Niño variability

Primary Production

0

+10

-10

% change

Growth duration

0

+50

-50

% change

Racault et al., In prep. ESA Living Planet Fellowship 2015-2017 Capotondi et al., JAS 2014

Eastern Pacific El Niño

Central Pacific El Niño

The impact on ocean primary producers is different in different regions for the two types of El Niño

Relation between EL Nino/La Nina and CO2 anomalies (trend removed)

Harrison et al. 2014, TPOS 2020 Report.

Atmospheric Methane (CH4) is Increasing

• Third most abundant greenhouse gas after H2O and CO2

• Grown by 150% since pre-industrial era (in 1750 it was 700 ppb*)

• Less abundant than CO2 but more efficient as a greenhouse gas

• Relative to CO2 it contributes about 60% in terms of radiative forcing

*ppb = parts per billion

OCO-2 CO2 concentrations (NASA-JPL)

Surface albedo from geostationary satellites

MODIS

Lattanzio A.; et al., 2013:

Land Surface Albedo from Geostationary

Satellites: a multi-agency collaboration

within SCOPE-CM, 2013.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological

Society.

GeosatsSum

Geostationary satellites have

better temporal sampling, hence a

higher probability to obtain a clear

sky view

29

GSMaP: Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation

•Rapidly changing precipitation phenomena need frequentobservations.

•Global rainfall map merging TRMM, polar orbiting microwaveradiometer/sounders, and geostationary infrared radiometers.

http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GSMaP/

met.no

Map of Arctic sea ice cover at record low minimum mid-September 2012 (white-blue shades). The minimum cover 32 years earlier (September 1980) is contoured in orange.

More information and graphs are available from http://osisaf.met.no

Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Exte

nt

(Mil

lio

ns o

f sq

ua

re k

ilo

mete

rs)

Arctic Sea Ice Extent(Area of Ocean with at least 15% sea ice)

1981-2010 Average

±2 Standard Deviations

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Show all Hide all

1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May

BETA - National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO

1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug

1 Sep 1 Oct

1 Nov 1 Dec 31 Dec0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Polar shipping summer 2014

28th Plenary session

Tromsø, Norway

28-30 October 2014

33

Global Forest Observation Initiative (GFOI)

Co-leads:

• Australia (DOTE)

• Norway (NSC)

• USA (USGS)

• FAO

• CEOS (ESA)

GFOI Objectives:

• to foster sustained availability of

satellite and ground observation

in support of national forest

information systems

• to support countries in the use

of observations for their national

forest information systems GFOI Country Coverage In 2013 AND 2014

2008 Establishment of GEO FCT task

2009+ FCT demonstration based on NDs

2010 GFOI Concept plan

2011 GFOI Implementation plan

2012 GFOI Start-Up Phase

2013-15 Incrementing coverage

2016+ Operations Phase www.gfoi.org

34

Red dots indicate new logging locations in Amazon rainforest

Identification of new logging locations every 5 days

140 illegal loggings among 1007 new logging locations in 2010

On-site survey and revelations by Federal Police

Brazil

Monitoring of Illegal Logging with Brazilian environmental agency (IBAMA)

History: Zeeland, 31 Jan 1953

ENVISAT for monitoring dykes in the Netherlands

On the potential of PS-InSAR for monitoring dikes in the Netherlands

Courtesy of Ramon Hansen Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems

Overflowing

Overtopping

Piping

Sliding inner slope

Plastic horizontal sliding

Nipping ice

BLUE Below Sea level

17000 km of water barriers:

– 3565 km primary water barriers (big rivers, sea, IJsselmeer, Markermeer),

– >14000 km regional water barriers

On the potential of PS-InSAR for monitoring dikes in the Netherlands

Courtesy R. Hansen Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems

Landsat background, with PSI-dike results of 9 frames superposed (1992-2005)

On the potential of PS-InSAR for monitoring dikes in the Netherlands

Courtesy of Ramon Hansen Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems

Summary

1. Historical approach to climate observations formalised through

creation of the Global Climate Observing System, GCOS

2. Dialogue with CEOS established, with formal requirements

definition and coordinated response form all agencies,

research and operational meteorology.

3. Satellites support over 50% of GCOS ECVs directly, about

half remainder together with in situ data

4. Major initiatives in and among space agencies provides

comprehensive response

5. Satellites now a fundamental source of climate

observations for understanding climate, for adaptation and

mitigation.