Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.
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Transcript of Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.
![Page 1: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Briefing toKenai Peninsula Borough
February 19, 2013
![Page 2: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• What is a Risk Assessment?
• Study Results• Risk Reduction
Options• Questions?
![Page 3: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
What is a Risk Assessment?
• What can go wrong?
![Page 4: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
What is a Risk Assessment?
• How likely is it?
![Page 5: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
What is a Risk Assessment?
• What are the impacts?
![Page 6: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
What is a Risk Assessment?
• Can the risk be reduced or the impact mitigated?
![Page 7: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Project Scope
Substances• Oil– Cargo, Crude Oil or Refined Product– Fuel, Bunkers
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Project Scope
Vessel Types– Containerships– Bulk carriers– Gas carriers– Car carriers– Cruise ships and Ferries– Crude oil tankers– Product tankers
– Tank barges and tugs– Cargo barges and tugs– Chemical carriers– Tugs– Offshore Supply Vessels– Mobile Drill Rigs– Government Vessels
![Page 9: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Project Scope
Accident Types• Collisions• Allisions• Powered Groundings• Drift Groundings• Foundering
• Structural Failures• Mooring Failures• Fires
![Page 10: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Project Scope
Geographic Region
![Page 11: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Organization
Management Team
– Mike Munger, CIRCAC– Steve Russell, ADEC– Captain Paul Mehler, USCG
Project Managers– Nuka Research and Planning Group, LLC.
![Page 12: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Organization
Advisory Panel• Fisheries
• Local Government
• Mariner, Pilot
• Mariner, Salvor
• Mariner, Containerships
• Mariner, Tug and Barge
• Mariner, Tank Ship
• Mariner, General
• Non-Governmental Org.
• Resource Manager
• Subsistence Users
![Page 13: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Tasks Completed
• Vessel Traffic Study
• Baseline Accident and Spill Study
• Consequence Analysis Study
![Page 14: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Vessel Traffic Study
Objectives
1. Characterize Vessel Traffic Utilizing Cook Inlet in 2010 Base Year (≥ 300 Gross Tons),
2. Predict Vessel Traffic Until 2019
![Page 15: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Vessel Traffic Study
Findings
• 480 ship port calls• 80% of the calls were made by 15 ships• 218 million gallons of persistent oil and 9
million gallons of non-persistent oil were moved on 83 tank ship voyages to or from the Nikiski and Drift River terminals
![Page 16: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Vessel Traffic Study
Findings
• 36% of all persistent oil moved was fuel oil on dry cargo ships calling at Anchorage
• 102 oil barge transits moved 366 million gallons of nonpersistent oil; the greatest amount of oil moved by a single vessel type
![Page 17: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Vessel Traffic Study
• AMHS ferries 23%• Horizon Lines container ships 22%• TOTE Ro-Ro cargo ships 22%• Crude oil tank ships 15.5%• Refined product tank ships 4%• Bulk carriers 4%• Gas carriers 2.5%• Cruise ships 3%• Fish industry 1%
![Page 19: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
45
450 million gallons of persistent oil were move in 2010
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566 million gallons of non-persistent oil was moved in 2010
![Page 21: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
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Spill Baseline & Causality Study
ObjectivesStudied Historical Incidents and Vessel Traffic to Define:
1. Baseline (2010-2014) and;2. Projected (2015- 2020) annual spill rate
Scenario Development
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Spill Baseline & Causality Study
• Analyzed vessel casualty/spill incidents
• Analyzed casualty/spill causes
• Analyzed potential spill volumes
• Determined most likely scenarios
![Page 24: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Spill Rates
• Vessel Types– Tank Ships– Tank Barges– Non-Tank/Non-workboat vessels (Cargo, Cruise
ship)• Highest forecasted spill rate of 1.3 per year
– Workboats (OSV, Towboat/Tugboat)• Highest baseline spill rate of 0.96 per year
– Sum of the four vessel types is 3.9 spills per year
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Scenarios
• Defined for 2,112 unique combinations of vessel types and spill factor subcategories.
• Majority of scenarios have low to very low relative risk level.
• Tank ships have lowest baseline spill rate, but have the most risk from an oil spill.
![Page 26: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Consequence Analysis
• Workshop was held in Anchorage Oct 30 & 31
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Consequence Analysis
• Based on Expert Judgment
• Considered 7 spill scenarios
• Characterized likely impacts
![Page 28: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Consequence Analysis
Environmental • Habitat• Fish• Birds• Mammals
Socioeconomic• Subsistence• Commercial Fishing• Recreation and Tourism• General Commerce• Oil Industry Operations
Impacts Considered
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Consequence Analysis
• Both persistent and non-persistent oil spill scenarios were evaluated
• The conclusion were that even moderate size spills (~100 bbl) can have significant impacts
• Over 40 people attended the Workshop• Workshop report was posted for public review
and is being finalized.
![Page 30: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Risk Reduction Options
Indentify Potential Risk Reduction Options
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Risk Reduction Options
• Some potential Risk Reduction Options have already been identified
• We want to consider the broadest array of options, so we are asking anyone with a idea to submit it for consideration
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Risk Reduction Options
• The Advisory Panel will meet Friday February 22nd to consider Risk Reductions Options
• The most promising ones will be evaluated for possible recommendation for implementation by the Advisory Panel
![Page 33: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Risk Reduction Options
• The evaluation process will consider– Estimating costs and benefits
– Evaluating ease of implementation
– Considering Un-intended consequences
• Based on these evaluations the Advisory Panel will prioritize and make final recommendations in their Final Report
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www.cookinletriskassessment.com
![Page 35: Briefing to Kenai Peninsula Borough February 19, 2013.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110206/56649ce05503460f949a9c78/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Questions?