Brief Overview of the Current South Africa Grain...
42
Brief Overview of the Current South Africa Grain Supplies 19 February 2016 1
Transcript of Brief Overview of the Current South Africa Grain...
Brief Overview of the Current
South Africa Grain Supplies
19 February 2016
1
Background on the Grain Supply Industry
• RSA growers produce 42% of all maize in SADC
• SADC is a net importer of RSA maize
• RSA Summer grain production yield decreases
27%y/y in 2015 (maize -30%y/y).
• RSA 2016 maize production might decrease further
by 25%y/y.
2
Source: BFAP and Grain SA
Maize Production : Negatively Affected Across the Region
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
SA ZAM MOZ TAN MAL ZIM KEN
Mill
ion
to
ns
2014 2015 EST 2016
3
Source: Grain SA
RSA Total Maize Production Lowest since 2006/07…
0.0
3000.0
6000.0
9000.0
12000.0
15000.0
19
91
/92
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92
/93
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/94
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94
/95
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/00
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05
/06
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06
/07
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/09
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/10
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/11
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/12
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12
/13
20
13
/14
20
14
/15
20
15
/16
*
‘00
0 T
on
s
4
Source: Grain SA
White maize Production is at the lowest level since ‘94…
.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
7000.0
8000.0
9000.0
‘000 t
on
s
Noordwes/North West Gauteng Limpopo
Mpumalanga Kwazulu-Natal Oos-Kaap/E. Cape
Vrystaat/Free State Noord-Kaap/N. Cape Wes-Kaap/W. Cape
5
Source: Grain SA
Yellow Maize Production Lowest since ‘06/07…
.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
7000.0
‘000 t
on
s
Noordwes/North West Gauteng Limpopo
Mpumalanga Kwazulu-Natal Oos-Kaap/E. Cape
Vrystaat/Free State Noord-Kaap/N. Cape Wes-Kaap/W. Cape
6
Source: Grain SA
RSA Production: All Summer Crops have been
Negatively Affected
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ind
ex 2
00
4/0
5 =
10
0
Groundnuts (-48% y/y) Maize (-25% y/y)
Soybean (-27% y/y) Sunflowerseed (-6% y/y)
7
Source: Grain SA
Production: All Summer Crops have been Negatively
Affected
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ind
ex 2
00
4/0
5 =
10
0
Groundnuts (-48% y/y) Maize (-25% y/y)
Soybean (-27% y/y) Sunflowerseed (-6% y/y)
8
Source: Grain SA
Production: All Summer Crops have been Negatively
Affected
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ind
ex 2
00
4/0
5 =
10
0
Groundnuts (-48% y/y) Maize (-25% y/y)
Soybean (-27% y/y) Sunflowerseed (-6% y/y)
9
Source: Grain SA
Continuous Growth in Demand of RSA Maize for Feed
Consumption
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
'00
0 T
on
s
Human Consumption Feed Consumption
11
Source: Grain SA
YMAZ: Maize for Animal Feed At Higher Levels
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
500 000
550 000
Jan 2013 June 2013 Nov 2013 Apr 2014 Sep 2014 Feb 2015 July 2015 Dec 2015
Ton
s
-animal -human
12
Source: Grain SA
WMZ: Maize for Animal Feed Peaks July – Feb
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
Jan 2013 June 2013 Nov 2013 Apr 2014 Sep 2014 Feb 2015 July 2015 Dec 2015
Ton
s
-human -animal
13
Source: Grain SA
Commercial Demand Remains Strong
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16* 2016/17**
‘00
0 T
on
s
‘00
0 T
on
s
Imports Whole maize exports
Carry-out stocks Production
Total commercial demand14
RSA White Maize: Supply and Demand
2014/15 2015/16* 2016/17 (3.16)
Opening stocks 274 000 1 283 000 1 017 000
Commercial Deliveries
7 593 000 4 618 000 3 182 000
Imports 0 70 000 1 100 000
Total supply 7 876 000 5 971 000 5 299 000
RSA consumption 5 952 000 4 404 000 4 304 000
Exports 548 000 470 000 470 000
Total demand 6 593 000 4 954 000 4 854 000
Carry-out (30 Apr) 1 283 000 1 017 000 445 000
Surplus/deficit above pipeline
554 000 479 000 -80 000
Mexico & Zam
Area planted (x1 000 ha) 1 448 1033
Yield (ton/ha) 3.25 3.16
15
RSA Yellow Maize: Supply and Demand
2014/15 2015/16* 2016/17 (4.33)
Opening stocks 315 000 791 000 349 000
Commercial Deliveries 6 235 000 4 802 000 3 734 000
Imports 65 000 900 000 2 700 000
Total supply 6 632 000 6 493 000 6 783 000
RSA consumption 4 326 000 5 884 000 6 092 000
Exports 1 410 000 160 000 160 000
Total demand 5 841 000 6 144 000 6 352 000
Carry-out (30 Apr) 791 000 349 000 431 000
Surplus above pipeline 285 000 - 354 000 - 297 000
Arg.
Area planted (x1 000 ha) 1205 963
Yield (ton/ha) 4.35 4.33
17
RSA Total Maize : Supply and Demand
2014/15 2015/16* 2016/17 (4.53)
Opening stocks 589 000 2 074 000 1 366 000
Commercial Deliveries 13 828 000 9 420 000 6 916 000
Imports 65 000 970 000 3 800 000
Total supply 14 508 000 12 464 000 12 082 000
RSA consumption 10 278 000 10 288 000 10 396 000
Exports 1 957 000 630 000 630 000
Total demand 12 434 000 11 098 000 11 206 000
Carry-out (30 Apr) 2 074 000 1 366 000 876 000
Surplus above pipeline 839 000 126 000 - 378 000
Area planted (x1 000 ha) 2 653 1 995
Yield (ton/ha) 3.75 4.53
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RSA Traditionally a net exporter….
Source: Grain SA
-
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
Ton
s
Imports Exports21
RSA Exports to SADC Likely To Continue….
Source: Grain SA
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
-
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
% R
SA e
xpo
rts
to S
AD
C
Ton
s
Imports Exports % RSA exports to SADC
22
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
% im
po
rts
of
ann
ual
mai
ze c
on
sum
pti
on
SADC: Expected % Imports of Annual Domestic
Consumption
Source: USDA, ITC and Grain SA 23
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
Millio
n t
on
s
Production Consumption Ending Stocks
Source: IGC and Grain SA
Global Maize Supply Remains at High Levels
24
KEY COMMODITY PRICE MOVEMENTS
25
Source: JSE, IGC and Grain SA
Maize and Rice Prices have Peaked
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
US$
/T
ZAR
/T
Rice (Thailand) Yellow Maize White Maize US Maize
26
Continuous Depreciation of the ZAR Adds Inflationary
Pressure
Source: Bloomberg and Grain SA
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
01
-Jan
-15
22
-Jan
-15
12
-Fe
b-1
5
05
-Mar
-15
26
-Mar
-15
16
-Ap
r-1
5
07
-May
-15
28
-May
-15
18
-Ju
n-1
5
09
-Ju
l-1
5
30
-Ju
l-1
5
20
-Au
g-1
5
10
-Se
p-1
5
01
-Oct
-15
22
-Oct
-15
12
-No
v-1
5
03
-De
c-1
5
24
-De
c-1
5
14
-Jan
-16
04
-Fe
b-1
6
25
-Fe
b-1
6
ZAR
/USD
27
White Maize Price is well Above the Import Parity Price
Source: IGC and Grain SA
1 300
1 700
2 100
2 500
2 900
3 300
3 700
4 100
4 500
4 900
5 300
15
-Feb
-13
15
-Ap
r-1
3
15
-Ju
n-1
3
15
-Au
g-1
3
15
-Oc
t-1
3
15
-De
c-1
3
15-F
eb
-14
15-A
pr-
14
15-J
un
-14
15-A
ug
-14
15-O
ct-
14
15-D
ec-1
4
15-F
eb
-15
15-A
pr-
15
15-J
un
-15
15-A
ug
-15
15-O
ct-
15
15-D
ec-1
5
15-F
eb
-16
R/t
on
USA Import Parity USA Export Parity Safex WM
28
Yellow Maize Price is at Import Parity Price Level
Source: IGC and Grain SA
1 300
1 700
2 100
2 500
2 900
3 300
3 700
4 100
1-O
ct-
12
1-D
ec-1
2
1-F
eb
-13
1-A
pr-
13
1-J
un
-13
1-A
ug
-13
1-O
ct-
13
1-D
ec-1
3
1-F
eb
-14
1-A
pr-
14
1-J
un
-14
1-A
ug
-14
1-O
ct-
14
1-D
ec
-14
1-F
eb
-15
1-A
pr-
15
1-J
un
-15
1-A
ug
-15
1-O
ct-
15
1-D
ec-1
5
1-F
eb
-16
R/t
on
ARG Import Parity USA Import parity USA Export Parity Safex YM
29
SOUTH AFRICAN WHEAT PRODUCTION
30
Source: Grain SA
RSA Wheat Production is under Pressure….
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990/91 1993/94 1996/97 1999/00 2002/03 2005/06 2008/09 2011/12 2014/15
00
0 t
on
NOK produksie skatting/CEC crop estimate ('000ton)
Totaal RSA verbruik / Total RSA consumption
Linear (NOK produksie skatting/CEC crop estimate ('000ton))
Linear ( Totaal RSA verbruik / Total RSA consumption)31
Source: Grain SA
RSA is Increasingly Importing more Wheat….
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
1990/91 1994/95 1998/99 2002/03 2006/07 2010/11 2014/15
%
00
0 t
on
Invoere / Imports
% invoere t.o.v RSA verbruik/ % imported of RSA consumption
32
RSA Wheat: Domestic Demand and Supply
2013/14 2014/15* 2015/16**
Opening stocks 489 000 489 000 594 00
Commercial Deliveries
1 817 000 1 701 000 1 470 000
Imports 1 668 000 1 832 000 1 950 000
Total supply 3 975 000 4 037 000 4 014 000
RSA consumption 3 218 000 3 151 000 3 140 000
Exports 255 000 275 000 265 000
Total demand 3 486 000 3 443 000 3 427 000
Carry-out (30 Sep) 489 000 594 000 587 000 33
Source: IGC and Grain SA
Global Wheat Supply Remains at High Levels
35
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
Mil
lio
n t
on
s
Production Consumption Ending Stocks
Continuous Depreciation of the ZAR Adds Inflationary
Pressure
Source: Bloomberg and Grain SA
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
01
-Jan
-15
22
-Jan
-15
12
-Fe
b-1
5
05
-Mar
-15
26
-Mar
-15
16
-Ap
r-1
5
07
-May
-15
28
-May
-15
18
-Ju
n-1
5
09
-Ju
l-1
5
30
-Ju
l-1
5
20
-Au
g-1
5
10
-Se
p-1
5
01
-Oct
-15
22
-Oct
-15
12
-No
v-1
5
03
-De
c-1
5
24
-De
c-1
5
14
-Jan
-16
04
-Fe
b-1
6
25
-Fe
b-1
6
ZAR
/USD
36
Wheat Prices Trade Along Import Parity Prices…
Source: IGC and Grain SA
2 000
2 400
2 800
3 200
3 600
4 000
4 400
4 800
5 200
5 600
1-O
ct-
12
1-D
ec-1
2
1-F
eb
-13
1-A
pr-
13
1-J
un
-13
1-A
ug
-13
1-O
ct-
13
1-D
ec-1
3
1-F
eb
-14
1-A
pr-
14
1-J
un
-14
1-A
ug
-14
1-O
ct-
14
1-D
ec-1
4
1-F
eb
-15
1-A
pr-
15
1-J
un
-15
1-A
ug
-15
1-O
ct-
15
1-D
ec-1
5
1-F
eb
-16
R/t
on
USA Import Parity Safex USA Export Parity
37
Weekly Wheat Imports (tons) and Tariff triggers…
Source: SAGIS and Grain SA
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 0000
4-O
ct-1
3
08
-No
v-1
3
13
-De
c-1
3
17
Jan
20
14
21
-Fe
b-1
4
28
-Mar
-14
02
-May
-14
06
-Ju
n-1
4
11
Ju
l 20
14
15
-Au
g-1
4
19
-Se
p-1
4
24
Oct
14
28
-No
v-1
4
02
-Jan
-15
06
Fe
b 1
5
13
-Mar
-15
17
-Ap
r-1
5
22
-May
-15
26
-Ju
n-1
5
31
-Ju
l-1
5
04
-Se
p-1
5
09
Oct
15
13
-No
v-1
5
18
-De
c-1
5
22
-Jan
-16
27
-Jan
-16
01
-Fe
b-1
6
Tariff R461/t
Tariff R800/t
Tariff R911/t
Tariff R510/t
38
Wheat Farmers only Receive R2.38 in a Loaf of Bread…
Source: Grain SA 39
TOTAL GRAIN IMPORTS FOR 2016 TO APRIL 2017…
40
RSA Total Grain and Oilseed Import Estimates for 2016 –
April 2017 is 7.24 million tons…
Source: Grain SA
Maize, 3.80
Wheat, 2.00
Rice, 0.90
Sorghum, 0.06
Barley, 0.06 Soybean, 0.30
Sunflowerseed, 0.10
Peanuts, 0.02
Units: million tons
41
• Maize = 3.8 million tons
• Wheat = 2 million tons
• Rice = 900 000 tons
• Sorghum = 60 000 tons
• Barley = 60 000 tons
• Soybean = 300 000 tons
• Sunflowerseed = 100 000 tons
• Peanuts = 20 000 tons
TOTAL GRAIN & OILSEED IMPORT ESTIMATE FOR 2016-APRIL
2017 = 7.24 million tons
RSA Possible Total Grain Imports for the year….
42
Continuous Depreciation of the ZAR Adds Inflationary
Pressure
Source: Bloomberg and Grain SA
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
01
-Jan
-15
22
-Jan
-15
12
-Fe
b-1
5
05
-Mar
-15
26
-Mar
-15
16
-Ap
r-1
5
07
-May
-15
28
-May
-15
18
-Ju
n-1
5
09
-Ju
l-1
5
30
-Ju
l-1
5
20
-Au
g-1
5
10
-Se
p-1
5
01
-Oct
-15
22
-Oct
-15
12
-No
v-1
5
03
-De
c-1
5
24
-De
c-1
5
14
-Jan
-16
04
-Fe
b-1
6
25
-Fe
b-1
6
ZAR
/USD
45
• WMAZ Spot price have increased by +80% y-o-y
• YMAZ Spot price have increased by +45% y-o-y
• CPI bread & cereal increased by 8.4% y-o-y (Jan 16)
• PPI cereals & crops increased by 53.7% y-o-y (Dec 15)
• Maize meal prices increased by 22% y-o-y (Jan 16)
• Rice prices increased by 5% y-o-y (Jan 16)
• Beef prices increased by 5% y-o-y (Jan 16)
• Milk prices increased by 3% y-oy (Jan 16)
• Egg prices increased by 10% y-o-y (Jan 16)
• Sunflower oil prices increased by 30% y-o-y (Jan 16)
2016 will see the toughest consumer environment
46
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT LOGISTICS…
47
• DBN (130 000 TONS/Month)
• CPT (140 000 TONS/Month)
• PE (70 000 TONS/Month)
• EL (66 000 TONS/Month)
Port Authorities indicated that they can be in a
position to accommodate roughly 7 million tons a year.
The usual grain port usage is roughly 4.8 million tons a
year
48
Thank You!
Wandile Sihlobo Email: [email protected]
Tel: 012 816 8045
www.grainsa.co.za
49
Disclaimer: Everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of this information, however Grain SA takes no
responsibility for any losses or damage incurred due to the usage of this information.
