BREXIT BRIEF | MAR 2016

Introduction

Brexit Brief, published by the IIEA’s UK Project Group, covers developments in the on-going debate in the United Kingdom – and between the UK and the other EU Member States – on the UK’s negotiations over its membership of the Union.

The Brief seeks to provide up-to-date information on the progress and content of the UK re-negotiation and on relevant statements and policy positions – of key individual players, EU institutions, national governments, political parties, business interests and civil society actors. Particular attention is given to identification of references – website coordinates, book titles, official publications, media coverage etc.

The Brief is part of a wider communications programme covering the work of the IIEA’s UK Project Group – involving commentaries, speeches, texts and event reports – which will be highlighted on the Institute website.

Section One: Brexit State of Play

The UK referendum campaign is underway – promising four months of political wrangling, as the main campaign groups on both sides of the argument attempt to sway the UK electorate in their favour.

Prime Minister Cameron returned from the Brussels European Council meeting on 18-19 February with what he described as ‘Britain’s new settlement with the European Union’. Two days of protracted negotiations – in plenary and in bilateral encounters – resulted in

a complex set of documents, incorporating a formal Decision and six Statements and Declarations which were designed to address the four main areas of policy concern for the UK.

David Cameron’s position

Presenting his new settlement to the House of Commons, the Prime Minister took on many of the arguments of the ‘leave’ side, notably those of the Mayor of London, and made it clear that he would campaign vigorously across the country on the basis of the simple argument that Britain would be safer and stronger by remaining inside a reformed European Union.”

In particular, he dealt with the suggestion that if the UK voted to leave there could be a second renegotiation and a second referendum:

I want to spell out this point carefully because it is important. If the British people vote to leave there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger Article 50 of the Treaties and begin the process of exit and the British people would expect that to start straight away. And we should be clear that this process is not an invitation to re-join; it is a process for leaving. I have known a number of couples who have begun divorce proceedings but I do not know any who have begun divorce proceedings in order to renew their marriage vows.

The UK Government also published a policy paper, entitled The best of both worlds: the United Kingdom’s special status in a reformed European Union. This document, published under the terms of the European Union Referendum Act 2015 to satisfy the duty to provide information, deals in detail with the content and implications of the Brussels

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BREXITB R I E F BREXIT BRIEF | MAR 2016

settlement but also puts forward arguments likely to figure in the Prime Minister’s personal campaign, based on the assertion that “leaving Europe would threaten our economic and our national security.”

The UK Cabinet

The majority of the UK Cabinet subsequently endorsed the Brussels package and agreed that the government’s position was to recommend that Britain remains in a reformed European Union and that the referendum will be held on Thursday 23 June 2016. The Prime Minister announced that, from that moment, individual Cabinet Ministers would have the freedom to campaign, in a personal capacity, for the UK to leave the EU. As he was speaking, six Ministers left No.10 Downing Street for the headquarters of the Vote Leave campaign group where they began to make their case for leaving the EU. They were to be joined within two days by the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, and then by the former Tory Party Leader, Michael Howard and the former Labour Party Foreign Secretary and founder of the Social Democrats, David Owen.

Initial reactions

The final package of reforms received a less than enthusiastic reception in the British media. The Europhile Observer commented that “it does not represent a fundamental shift in Britain’s relationship with the EU, but that was never on the table” while the Eurosceptic papers – Telegraph, Daily Mail – reflected the view of Vote Leave that “David Cameron always wanted to campaign to stay in the EU so he only asked for very minor changes. He will now declare victory but it is an entirely hollow one.”

The likely tone of the referendum campaign was set in a dispute over the legal status of the Brussels settlement. The Justice Secretary, Michael Gove, one of the six, claimed that the deal could be overruled by the European Court of Justice. He was backed by a number of lawyers, including a Junior Minister, Dominic Raab, whose legal opinions were released.

Downing Street responded by lining out the opinions of Attorney General, Jeremy Wright, and his predecessor, Dominic Grieve. The Attorney General, in a most unusual step, released the text of the legal opinion he had provided for the Government, declaring the Brussels text to be watertight in law.

The view from abroad was best summed up by the Polish Institute of International Affairs, who commented that:

The agreement […] brings a certain comforting experience to the EU. It proves that 28 very different states joined by common interests are capable of conducting a comprehensive, self-critical review of their co-existence and agree on improvements, which, although not very substantial – still constitute a refreshing facelift. And now that the deal is sealed, all eyes are set on the British voters, who soon will be making an assessment of not only the credibility of the renegotiation but also the broader pros and cons of EU membership.

Section Two: The Evolving Debate

In her first comprehensive statement on the referendum debate, the newly appointed Labour Party Shadow Europe Minister, Pat Glass MP, described herself as spokesperson “for a political party that is absolutely united on this issue.” She argued that Britain’s future safety and stability lies in the country remaining at the heart of Europe and pointed to the importance of working together with other EU countries on complex global issues such as climate change, international crime and terrorism and mass migration. She called for a strong campaign to remain in the EU, where the UK could “continue to build a mutually beneficial future with our European partners.”

The final Communique of the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Shanghai on 26 February 2016, warned about the downside risks and vulnerabilities associated with the UK leaving the EU. The US Treasury Secretary, Jacob Lew, remarked that “we see a stronger UK, a stronger EU, a stronger global economy and a more secure world with the UK in the EU.”

The General Secretary of the TUC, Frances O’Grady, has warned that workers’ rights are being forgotten in the Brexit debate: “The big question that the Brexit campaign has to answer is what would happen to rights at work, from maternity leave, to equal pay, to holidays, to consultation on redundancies if we left the EU.”

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author.

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The Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa Villiers, who is campaigning for Brexit, has rejected the suggestion that UK withdrawal from the EU would require border checks to be reinstated arguing that there was “every reason to suggest” that the UK and Ireland could maintain free movement under the Common Travel Area which existed before the two countries entered the European Community in 1973.

The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Charlie Flanagan TD, welcomed the positive conclusion to the European Council and indicated that, as the debate in the UK intensifies Ireland will continue to play a positive and constructive role where appropriate opportunities arise: “The Irish Government is strongly of the view that that the UK should remain in the Union and contributing to that outcome was the Government’s overall objective in the negotiations leading up to today’s agreement, and will remain so in the months ahead.”

Opinion polls

A Survation/Mail on Sunday opinion poll, the first since the Brussels deal, indicated that 48 percent of Britons did not want to leave the EU, 33 percent did and 19 percent were still undecided.

New data from the latest British Social Attitudes survey shows that two thirds of the British public can be considered Eurosceptic; 65% either want the UK to leave the EU (22%) or for the EU’s powers to be reduced (43%). This Euroscepticism is reflected in majority support for radical changes to the way the EU works. Two thirds (68%) favour reducing the ability of EU migrants to access welfare benefits and a majority (60%) also favour reducing the extent to which the EU regulates business.

However, in spite of this deep concern about Britain’s EU membership, when given a straight choice, twice as many think that Britain should ‘continue’ to be an EU member (60%) as believe the country should ‘withdraw’ (30%). For scepticism to translate into support for withdrawal, voters need also to be convinced of the economic case for leaving. And at present most are not.

Section Three: Relevant Research and Events

IIEA Publications and Events

Britain and Europe: The Endgame - A Postscript

A new study updating the analysis in the Institute’s March 2015 book. Edited by Brendan Keenan and Andrew Gilmore, the study includes chapters by Brendan Halligan, Blair Horan, Paul Gillespie, John Bradley, Tom Arnold and Andrew Gilmore. The postscript can be downloaded here.

An ongoing series of blogs on the topic of Brexit can be found on the IIEA website.

Upcoming Events

The UK referendum and its consequences. Charles Grant, Director of the Centre for European Reform

In this address to the IIEA, Charles Grant will outline the factors which are helping and hindering both the In and Out campaigns in Britain ahead of the UK’s EU referendum on 23 June 2016. He will address the impact of a British exit from the EU on the UK, the EU and on the wider world. Finally, he will look at the politics of the campaign as a whole, showing the multifaceted challenges which confront David Cameron’s government.

Past Events

The British Business Vision for a Reformed EU. Paul Drechsler, President of the Confederation of British Industry.

Mr. Drechsler analysed the benefits and drawbacks of EU membership for business, examine the alternatives and set out a business vision for a reformed EU, which works better for firms in the UK, Ireland and across the continent. A transcript and audio from the event can be found here.

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author.

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The UK at the crossroads – Britain’s Brexit debate. Pat McFadden, Labour MP and former Shadow Minister for Europe

In this speech Pat McFadden, a campaigner for Britain to stay in the EU, set out the background for the Brexit debate, the implications of leaving and what this debate will say about Britain’s role in the world. Video and audio from the event can be found here.

Other Activities

IIEA Director General, Tom Arnold, and John McGrane Director General of the British Irish Chamber of Commerce, testified to the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee of the House of Commons on 10 February 2016. A detailed written submission was also made to the Committee on the implications of a Brexit for Northern Ireland.

Recent Third Party Events and Publications

Publications

The Final Brexit Question: The known Plan A to remain or the unknown Plan B to leave

Michael Emerson, Senior Associate Research Fellow at CEPS, a Brussels-based think-tank, examines the alternatives to EU membership, in the event that Britain votes to leave. The publication can be downloaded from the CEPS website.

Events

European Movement Ireland held another in its series of ‘Reform and Referendum’ conferences on 22 February 2016. Transcripts of presentations are available online.

The British-Irish Chamber of Commerce held its annual conference in Dublin on 19 February 2016 focusing on the Brexit question. A collection of media coverage of the event can be found on the BIC website.

Section Four: Background Material and Further Reading

Background Material

UK Government Policy Paper. ‘The best of both worlds: the United Kingdom’s special status in a reformed European Union’. (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-best-of-both-worlds-the-united-kingdoms-special-status-in-a-reformed-european-union)

House of Commons. European Council. Hansard Debates for 22 February 2016. (http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmhansrd/cm160222/debtext/160222-0001.htm)

Centre for European Reform. ‘Deal done: Now for the hard work’. 20 February 2016.(http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmhansrd/cm160222/debtext/160222-0001.htm)

Open Europe. ‘What did the UK achieve in its EU renegotiation?’ (http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/what-did-the-uk-achieve-in-its-eu-renegotiation/)

Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) A Win-Win Situation? Strategic File No.3, February 2016. (http://www.pism.pl/Publications/PISM-Strategic-Files/PISM-Strategic-File-no-3-84)

Prime Minister David Cameron Statement following Cabinet meeting on EU settlement, 20 February 2016 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pms-statement-following-cabinet-meeting-on-eu-settlement-20-february-2016)

European Council European Council meeting – 18 and 19 February 2016 – Conclusions. (http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2016/02/18-19/)

Prime Minister David Cameron Statement on UK-EU renegotiation, House of Commons, 3 February 2016. (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-eu-renegotiation-3-february-2016)

House of Commons UK-EU Renegotiation. Hansard Debates for 3 February 2016. (http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmhansrd/cm160203/debtext/160203-0001.htm )

House of Commons Parliamentary Sovereignty and EU Renegotiations. Backbench Business, 4 February 2016. (http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmhansrd/cm160204/debtext/160204-0002.htm)

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author.

BREXITB R I E F BREXIT BRIEF | MAR 2016

John Springford ‘Brexit and EU Regulation: A bonfire of the vanities?’ Centre for European Reform. (http://www.cer.org.uk/publications/archive/policy-brief/2016/brexit-and-eu-regulation-bonfire-vanities)

European Commission Communication: Better Regulation for better results – An EU agenda, May 2015. COM(2015) 215 final (http://ec.europa.eu/smart-regulation/better_regulation/documents/com_2015_215_en.pdf )

Philip Stephens ‘Hard interests battle potent emotion over Britain and Europe’ Financial Times, 21 January 2016. (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/69b25512-bdf0-11e5-9fdb-87b8d15baec2.html)

Charles Moore ‘The PM’s tricks are almost over – now the choice is ours, not his’ Daily Telegraph, 6 February 2016. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12143491/I-feel-such-a-fool-for-giving-David-Cameron-the-benefit-of-the-doubt-on-his-EU-deal.html)

Steve Peers EU Law Analysis. Article 50TEU: The uses and abuses of the process of withdrawing from the EU. (http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.ie/2014/12/article-50-teu-uses-and-abuses-of.html)

Further Reading

Jean-Claude Piris The Lisbon Treaty: A Legal and Political Analysis. Cambridge University Press.

Neil MacCormick Questioning Sovereignty. Law, State and Nation in the European Commonwealth. Oxford University Press.

John Peet and Anton La Guardia Unhappy Union. How the euro crisis – and Europe – can be fixed. The Economist and Profile Books.

David Charter Europe: In or Out? Everything You Need To Know. Biteback Publishing.

Official Journal of the European Union. Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union. (www.eur-lex.europa.eu)

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author.