Brazilian Second Round: Post-Electoral Analysis

Wilson Center, Brazil Institute

November 1, Washington DC

The Crystallization of the Brazilian

Electorate

[ 3 ]

Final Results Crystallized Electorate

TSE

C Class increases by 30 million, from 34% to 49% of the Brazilian

adult population

2002 2006 2010

PT Candidate 61 61 56

PSDB Candidate 39 39 44

PSDB 35%

PT 46%

Floaters 19%

[ 4 ]

No Movment in the 2nd Round

Institutoanalise

C Class increases by 30 million, from 34% to 49% of the Brazilian

adult population

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5556 56

5756

55 5556 56 56

4544 44

4344

45 4544 44 44

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

10/17/2010 10/18/2010 10/19/2010 10/20/2010 10/21/2010 10/22/2010 10/23/2010 10/24/2010 10/25/2010 10/26/2010

Dilma Serra

The Electoral Environment

[ 6 ]

Explosion in “C Class” Middling Class

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

AB 26,421,172 32,809,554 28,078,466 29,377,015 30,217,541

C 62,702,248 66,716,976 86,207,480 84,621,066 92,850,384

DE 92,936,688 84,862,090 72,941,846 75,822,249 66,884,870

Total 182,060,108 184,388,620 187,227,792 189,820,330 189,952,795

Ipsos Cetelem 2005 - 2009

C Class increases by 30 million, from 34% to 49% of the Brazilian

adult population

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[ 7 ]

Election about Brazilian’s consupltion and mobility conquests...

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Dilma Serra Diff

Honest 41 48 -7

Adminstrative Experience 56 83 -27

Understands Poor People 64 50 14

Healthcare 35 54 -19

Education 48 43 5Increase Purchasing Power/Consumption 55 33 22

Generate Jobs 57 35 22

Dilma Next Steps

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Lula First Year average 80%

FHC First Year Average 80%

Strong Economy and Positive Scenario Should keep Dilma’s Number up.

Less of honeymoon in Brazil

Approval Ratings

Where does the PSDB/Opposition go from here?

[ 11 ]

What is the PSDB’s vision for Brazil?

Both PT and PSDB are trying to fill the same space: Center-Left

Ultimately, both parties are very class oriented in their electoral make-up

Key Elite Issues

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PSDB versus PT

Qual desses partidos é de oposição? Qual desses partidos mais defende a redução de impostos?

Qual desses partidos é de esquerda?

E qual é de direita?

Qual desses partidos mais defende os pobres?

E qual deles mais defende os ricos?

Qual desses partidos tem as pessoas mais preparadas para governar?

Qual desses partidos fala mais a linguagem que o povo entende?

Qual desses partidos tem os políticos menos desonestos?

E qual deles tem as pessoas que mais trabalham pelo Brasil?

E qual deles é o que mais combate a inflação?

E qual deles é que mais quer que a população compre mais?

Qual deles o(a) sr(a) gosta mais?

Qual deles o(a) sr(a) gosta menos?

PT

PFLPMDB

PSDB

Nenhum

Não sabe/Não respondeu

-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

-0,8 -0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0 0,2 0,4 0,6-- axis F1 (70 %) -->

-- a

xis

F2

(15

%)

-->

Ipsos 2008

Voter Demands: Rise of the Quality of Life Agenda

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Rise of the Quality of Life Agenda: 2005 vs. 2010

0

10

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60

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Quality of Life Jobs and Economy

Middle Class Demand Profile

Inflation is #1 issue in 1993

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Voter Agenda: Main Problems (September 2010)

8

8

9

14

19

27

37

44

49

50

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Housing

Lack of OpportuntiesYouth

Support for the poor

Corruption

Low Salaries

Education

Drug Trafficking

Healthcare

Jobs

Crime and Violence

 

Social Class

AB C DE

Crime and Violence 50 49 53

Jobs 44 49 54

Healthcare 41 43 48

Drug Trafficking 31 37 41

Education 39 27 15

Low Salaries 15 21 20

Corruption 20 14 10

Elite Agenda:The Bottleneck Agenda

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Education is Key (2009)

Elite Study 2009 Brasil: Jornalists, Politicians/Government, and Private Sector

70

46

23

19

18

15

10

45

%

Corruption

Health

Education

Crime

Government Incompetence

Jobs/Unemployment

Economic Development

Lack of support of the Poor

Constant Issues across polls

Education and

Infrastructure

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Consensus Issues Bottlenecks Infrastructure and Education Impact on Macro-economic policies over the last

16 years Huge inequality problems hurt Brazil globally

Size of State and Taxes among private sector

Key Elite Issues