Brancaccio Studi Economici Preliminare
Transcript of Brancaccio Studi Economici Preliminare
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:. Rnh cnvbzpzbvhycgnb ―lzcvclh‐ fbc fc|hqhnyc b|vbzc
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|bfb hfgvvbzb`g rng |ldb`h fc hnhec|c eb lrc zhfclc lgnlbvvrhec zc|cbfgng nbc
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c`pbzabycgnc fc `bzlhvg b h|c``bvzcb cnagz`hvcqb% e–hnhec|c nbgleh||clh fbvbz`cnhpzbyyc b xrhnvcvï fc bxrcecjzcg phzvbnfg fheeb fgvhycgnc fc zc|gz|b b fheeb pzbabzbnybfbkec hkbnvc blgng`clc% fhvh eh vblngegkch fc|pgncjceb. \reeh jh|b fc rn pzgkzh``h fc`h||c`cyyhycgnb fbeeb pzbabzbnyb% |gvvg ce qcnlgeg fbeeb zc|gz|b fc|pgncjcec b fc
bqbnvrhec c`pbzabycgnc b h|c``bvzcb% qbnkgng lg|å h fbvbz`cnhz|c fbc pzbyyc fcbxrcecjzcg% c xrhec h||r`gng ce lhzhvvbzb fc cnfclc fc |lhz|cvï fbeeb fgvhycgnc cn zhppgzvgheeb zc|pbvvcqb fg`hnfb. E–bxrcecjzcg lg|å fbvbz`cnhvg ä frnxrb fh lgn|cfbzhz|c
―gvvc`heb‐% fhvc c qcnlgec b|c|vbnvc. \ch pbz eb qbz|cgnc ―przb‐ ldb pbz xrbeeb lg|cffbvvb―c`pbzabycgnc|vb‐% |c prú frnxrb phzehzb fc rn lg`rnb phzhfck`h fbeeh |lhz|cvï fbeebzc|gz|b b fbeeh rvcecvï fbkec hkbnvc heeh jh|b fbee–hppzgllcg nbgleh||clg. Laz. vzh kec hevzc
Jzhnlhllcg $:??1% :??3j#.
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lgnvzcjrvc fc vbgzch lzcvclh fbe Ngqblbnvg1
b ldb pbz ce lh|g brzgpbg zc|revhb||bzb |vhvg hppeclhvg% vzh kec hevzc% fh Kzhychnc $:??:#. Heeh erlb fc xrb|vh
fcqbz|h ldchqb fc ebvvrzh lc hllcnkch`g frnxrb h agznczb rnh cnvbzpzbvhycgnb
hevbznhvcqh fbc fhvc b`pczclc zbehvcqc hkec |xrcecjzc lg``bzlchec brzgpbc. Cnphzvclgehzb% lbzldbzb`g rn |rppgzvg b`pczclg heeh |bkrbnvb lhvbnh
hzkg`bnvhvcqh. Cn pzc`g ergkg% |g|vbzzb`g ldb c phb|c lg|cffbvvc ―lbnvzhec‐%
lhzhvvbzcyyhvc fh rnh |rpbzcgzb gzkhncyyhycgnb fbc lhpcvhec b fh `hkkcgzc
fc`bn|cgnc f–c`pzb|h% |c lhzhvvbzcyyhng pbz rnh fcnh`clh pcó |g|vbnrvh fbeehpzgfrvvcqcvï zc|pbvvg hc phb|c lg|cffbvvc ―pbzcabzclc‐. Cn |blgnfg ergkg%
zcebqbzb`g zc|pbvvg he ph||hvg rnh `hkkcgzb lgnqbzkbnyh vzh eb zbvzcjrycgnc
`gnbvhzcb fbc phb|c ―lbnvzhec‐ b xrbeeb fbc phb|c ―pbzcabzclc‐. \g|vbzzb`g
xrcnfc ldb xrb|vg fgppcg abng`bng% fc fcqbzkbnyh fbeeb pzgfrvvcqcvï b fc
zbehvcqh lgnqbzkbnyh fbc |hehzc `gnbvhzc% fgqzbjjb h`pechzb ce fcqhzcg vzh clg|vc fc pzgfrycgnb b fgqzbjjb xrcnfc lgnfrzzb h rn heehzkh`bnvg fbkec
|xrcecjzc lg``bzlchec brzgpbc% lgn c phb|c ―lbnvzhec‐ hf hllr`rehzb hqhnyc b eb
―pbzcabzcb‐ haaecvvb fh rnh |c|vb`hvclh vbnfbnyh he fc|hqhnyg b|vbzg.
Cn baabvvc eh |bxrbnyh hppbnh fb|lzcvvh |b`jzh vzgqhzb fbc zc|lgnvzc cn
helrnb ng|vzb behjgzhycgnc fc fhvc b`pczclc zbehvcqc hee–Brzgph vzhvvc fhe
fhvhjh|b fbee–GBLF.;
\reeh jh|b fbeeb leh||caclhycgnc GBLF% fbacnch`g eh
pzgfrvvcqcvï vgvheb fbe ehqgzg cn vbz`cnc zbhec lg`b zhppgzvg vzh e–grvprv
ng`cnheb fbaehycgnhvg b ce nr`bzg fc gzb fc ehqgzg fbeeh pgpgehycgnb vgvhebgllrphvh cn rn hnng cn rn fhvg phb|b. Fhc fhvc fc|pgncjcec |c zcebqh ldb
nbee–revc`g fblbnncg eb pzgfrvvcqcvï zbhec fbe ehqgzg fbc phb|c fbee–Rncgnb
`gnbvhzch dhnng ahvvg zbkc|vzhzb rnh `gfbzhvh vbnfbnyh h fcqbzkbzb vzh egzg.
Cn phzvclgehzb% lg`b hqbqh`g hnvclcphvg% ä hnfhvg pzgkzb||cqh`bnvb
lgn|gecfhnfg|c ce fc|vhllg vzh eh pzgfrvvcqcvï `bfch fbc fgfclc b eb jbn pcó
`gfb|vb pzgfrvvcqcvï fbc xrhvvzg phb|c fbe \rf Brzgph9 Cvhech% \phknh%
_gzvgkheeg b Kzblch.4
Xrb|vc hnfh`bnvc |b`jzhng cngevzb hqqhegzhzb
1 Jzhnlhllcg $:??3h#.;
Ehffgqb ngn fcqbz|h`bnvb |pblcaclhvg% vrvvb eb zcebqhycgnc ldb |bkrgng lg|vcvrc|lgngng|vzb behjgzhycgnc fc fhvc vzhvvc fh dvvp9''|vhv|.gblf.gzk'{jg| .4
B– gppgzvrng pzblc|hzb ldb eh lhfrvh zbehvcqh fbeeh pzgfrvvcqcvï fbee–Cvhech b fbeebhevzb pbzcabzcb brzgpbb |b`jzh qbzcaclhz|c cn gknc lh|g% cnfcpbnfbnvb`bnvb fhe vcpg fc`c|rzh hfgvvhvh $|ch b||h fbaehycgnhvh g ng`cnheb# b cnfcpbnfbnvb`bnvb fhe ahvvg ldb
e–hnhec|c |ch baabvvrhvh |ree–grvprv vgvheb g |reeh |geh pzgfrycgnb `hncahvvrzcbzh. Hfb|b`pcg% |b |c hfgpbzh eh `c|rzh GBLF fbeeh pzgfrvvcqcvï cn vbz`cnc zbhec $lcgä fhvhfhee–grvprv ng`cnheb fbaehycgnhvg% fcqc|g pbz ce vgvheb fbeeb gzb fc ehqgzg fbeeh
pgpgehycgnb vgvheb gllrphvh# |c gvvcbnb ldb vzh ce 8331 b ce :??1 eh fc|pbz|cgnb vzh cphb|c fbee–Rncgnb “ `c|rzhvh fhe lgbaaclcbnvb fc qhzchycgnb he xrhfzhvg - ä hr`bnvhvhfh lczlh ?%?6 h lczlh ?%?1. @h hnlgzh pcó agzvb ä e–hr`bnvg fbeeh fc|pbz|cgnb vzh c
xrhvvzg phb|c fbe \rf Brzgph b vrvvc kec hevzc. Hf b|b`pcg% vzh ce 8331 b ce :??1 ce
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e–b|c|vbnyh fc rn nb||g vzh `hkkcgzc fc`bn|cgnc f–c`pzb|h b pcó hevhpzgfrvvcqcvï fbe ehqgzg. _gvzb``g fczb lcgä ldb c phb|c lhzhvvbzcyyhvc fh
c`pzb|b pcó kzhnfc zcb|lgng h lgn|bkrczb rn `hkkcgz pzgfgvvg pbz gzh ehqgzhvh
zc|pbvvg hc phb|c lgnvzhffc|vcnvc fh rnh `hkkcgzb azh``bnvhycgnb fbc lhpcvhec bfh `cngzc fc`bn|cgnc `bfcb hycbnfhec.
3H xrb|vh bqcfbnyh gllgzzb pgc
hkkcrnkbzb rn hevzg beb`bnvg pbz lg`pebvhzb ce xrhfzg hnhecvclg. B||g hvvcbnb
hee–hnfh`bnvg fbeeh lgnvzhvvhycgnb |hehzcheb nbc qhzc phb|c brzgpbc. Qh fbvvg% cn
pzgpg|cvg% ldb eb zbvzcjrycgnc `gnbvhzcb fbc ehqgzhvgzc fbc qhzc phb|c `b`jzcdhnng `g|vzhvg rnh lgnqbzkbnyh vzh egzg% he fc eï fc xrbeeh cnfgvvh
fhee–hfgycgnb fc rnh `gnbvh lg`rnb.8?
Rnh qgevh ngvc kec hnfh`bnvc fbeeb zbvzcjrycgnc b fbeeh pzgfrvvcqcvï% ä
pg||cjceb b|h`cnhzb hnldb ce egzg zhppgzvg9 qheb h fczb% ce lg|vg fbe ehqgzg pbz
rncvï fc pzgfgvvg $fbvvg LER_#. Bjjbnb% pgcldã eh lgnqbzkbnyh fbeebzbvzcjrycgnc dh acngzh pzbqhe|g |reeh fcqbzkbnyh fbeeb pzgfrvvcqcvï% ce zc|revhvg ä
lgn|c|vcvg cn rnh lgnqbzkbnyh fbc lg|vc rncvhzc fbe ehqgzg fbc qhzc phb|c
fbee–Rncgnb%88
eh xrheb dh agzvb`bnvb fhnnbkkchvg c phb|c lg|cffbvvc
―pbzcabzclc‐ fbe \rf Brzgph. Cnahvvc% xrb|vc phb|c nbkec revc`c hnnc dhnng qc|vg
fcqhzcg vzh pzgfrvvcqcvï gzhzch vbfb|lh b cvhechnh ä ph||hvg fh 2 h 8? prnvc pbzlbnvrhec.
Cngevzb% rn zc|revhvg fbe vrvvg hnhegkg prú b||bzb zclhqhvg fheeh `c|rzh fbeehpzgfrvvcqcvï cn qhegzb% cnvb|h lg`b zhppgzvg vzh qhegzb ng`cnheb fbeeh pzgfrycgnbnhycgnheb b nr`bzg fbkec gllrphvc. \b |c pzbnfgng c fhvc GBLF |reeh pzgfrvvcqcvïng`cnheb nbe |bvvgzb `hncahvvrzcbzg% |c zcebqh ldb vzh ce 8331 b ce :??1 ce fcqhzcg vzh
Kbz`hnch b Cvhech ä pzhvclh`bnvb zhffgppchvg% ph||hnfg fh lczlh 4 prnvc $<?%24 lgnvzg::%88# h lczlh 81 prnvc $6<%1; lgnvzg :;%4#. _có cn kbnbzheb% hnldb nbe lh|g fbeehpzgfrvvcqcvï cn qhegzb nbe |bvvgzb fbeeb `hncahvvrzb% |c zbkc|vzh rn heehzkh`bnvg fbeehagzjclb vzh c phb|c fbe \rf Brzgph b vrvvc kec hevzc `b`jzc fbee–Rncgnb `gnbvhzch.
\b`jzh frnxrb |`bnvcvh e–gpcncgnb ldb cn Cvhech |vhzbjjb qbzcaclhnfg|c rn |hevg|vzrvvrzheb qbz|g pzgfrycgnc hf hevg qhegzb hkkcrnvg b ldb fc lgn|bkrbnyh% |bjjbnb ehpzgfrvvcqcvï ac|clh pg||h hffczcvvrzh fc`cnrczb% xrbeeh cn qhegzb |ch cn lzb|lcvh.3 Eh zbehycgnb vzh fc`bn|cgnc f–c`pzb|h b pzgfrvvcqcvï fbe ehqgzg vzgqh fcqbz|c
zc|lgnvzc% vbgzclc bf b`pczclc. _bz e–Cvhech% |c qbfhng Gncfh $:??6# b C\VHV $:??;#.Vhec bqcfbnyb ngn |b`jzhng gaazczb |g|vbkng he lgnqcnlc`bnvg vrvvgzh fcaar|g ldb ehlg|cffbvvh ―qch cvhechnh‐ heeg |qcerppg lhpcvhec|vclg% agnfhvh |rc |c|vb`c h zbvb b |rcfc|vzbvvc% pg||h b||bzb hnlgzh lgn|cfbzhvh rnh |gerycgnb fc |rllb||g. \vhnfg hc fhvc |cpgvzbjjb hnyc zcvbnbzb ldb xrb|vh cfbh% `gevg cn qgkh nbkec hnnc –4? b —3?% hjjch
lgnvzcjrcvg h zcvhzfhzb c pzglb||c fc zcgzkhncyyhycgnb fbc lhpcvhec nhycgnhec b fc lzb|lcvhfc`bn|cgnheb fbeeb c`pzb|b.8?
Eh fc|pbz|cgnb fbeeb zbvzcjrycgnc `gnbvhzcb gzhzcb vgvhec nbc phb|c fbee–Rncgnb
`gnbvhzch brzgpbh% `c|rzhvh fhe lgbaaclcbnvb fc qhzchycgnb he xrhfzhvg% ph||h fh gevzb?%8 nbe 8332 h ?%?1 nbe :??2.88
Ce lgbaaclcbnvb fc qhzchycgnb he xrhfzhvg fbc lg|vc fbe ehqgzg pbz rncvï pzgfgvvh fbc
phb|c fbee–Rncgnb ä ph||hvg fh lczlh ?%?2 fbe 833? h lczlh ?%?8 fbe :??1.
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lzb|lbzb ngvbqge`bnvb c egzg lg|vc rncvhzc% acng h zhkkcrnkbzb b h |rpbzhzbxrbeec fbeeh Kbz`hnch b fbkec hevzc phb|c lg|cffbvvc ―lbnvzhec‐ fbee–Rncgnb.
Cngevzb% ä pg||cjceb ldb cn arvrzg c lg|vc rncvhzc fbc phb|c fbe \rf Brzgph
vbnfhng hf hr`bnvhzb revbzcgz`bnvb% heegnvhnhnfg|c |b`pzb fc pcó fhc lg|vcfbkec hevzc phb|c. Hqhnych`g h xrb|vg zckrhzfg rnh cpgvb|c pzbec`cnhzb |rc
pg||cjcec hnfh`bnvc pzg|pbvvclc fbc lg|vc. Ce kzhaclg ldb |bkrb fb|lzcqb
e–hnfh`bnvg baabvvcqg fbc lg|vc acng he :??;% b pgc eh egzg pzgcbycgnb ecnbhzb
pbz kec hnnc |rllb||cqc. G||bzqhnfg kec hnfh`bnvc% |c lg`pzbnfb ldb |b ebfcnh`cldb fbee–revc`g fblbnncg qbnc||bzg cn arvrzg hnldb |geg phzyche`bnvb
lgnabz`hvb% eh vbnfbnyh lbnvzcarkh vzh c lg|vc cn |bng hee–Rncgnb pgvzbjjb
h||r`bzb pzgpgzycgnc bllbycgnhec $Ack. 8#.
Ack. 8
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Nhvrzhe`bnvb eb fcnh`cldb pzg||c`b qbnvrzb pgvzbjjbzg h||r`bzb hnfh`bnvcngn |cnvbvcyyhjcec fh rnh `bzh pzgcbycgnb ecnbhzb. Vrvvhqch% ce kzhaclg `g|vzh
lgn rnh lbzvh ldchzbyyh ldb |b hnldb c lg|vc `hnvbnb||bzg |geg cn phzvb eb zgvvb
fbkec revc`c hnnc% eb fcqbzkbnyb pgvzbjjbzg zc|revhzb fcaaclce`bnvb |g|vbncjcec bfcqbnvbzbjjb eblcvg hvvbnfbz|c rn revbzcgzb heehzkh`bnvg fbkec |xrcecjzc nbc
lgnvc b|vbzc fbc qhzc phb|c.8:
Cn h||bnyh frnxrb fc lh`jch`bnvc |ckncaclhvcqc
zc|pbvvg heeb fcnh`cldb fbee–revc`g fblbnncg% |b`jzh zhkcgnbqgeb pzbqbfbzb
rn h`pech`bnvg fbc fcqhzc lg``bzlchec vzh c phb|c fbee–Rncgnb `gnbvhzch. Cnphzvclgehzb% h `bng fc c``hkcnhzb fbeeb |bqbzb pgecvcldb fc zb|vzcycgnb fbeeh
fg`hnfh% fbe zbffcvg b fbeeb c`pgzvhycgnc% |hzhnng c phb|c fbe \rf Brzgph h
zbkc|vzhzb c fbaclcv lg``bzlchec pcó lgn|c|vbnvc. Xrb|vc phb|c zc|revhng cnahvvc
lhzhvvbzcyyhvc fh rnh pcó jh||h lzb|lcvh fbeeh pzgfrvvcqcvï fbe ehqgzg% fh lg|vc b
pzbyyc zbehvcqc |b`pzb pcó hevc% b xrcnfc fgqzbjjbzg vbnfbzb pcó ahlce`bnvbfbkec hevzc hf hllr`rehzb fc|hqhnyc lgn e–b|vbzg.
8: Nbee–h`jcvg fbeeh c`pg|vhycgnb lzcvclh c nb||c lhr|hec vzh pzbyyc zbehvcqc b lgnvc b|vbzc|gng pcó lg`peb||c b |gvvg lbzvc h|pbvvc pcó fcaaclcec fh fbvbz`cnhzb zc|pbvvg h xrbeec
vcpclc fbee–hnhec|c nbgleh||clh. Vrvvhqch eh egzg pehr|cjcecvï ngn qcbnb nbkhvh% nã |repchng vbgzclg nã |r xrbeeg b`pczclg. H vheb zckrhzfg% l–ä rnh qh|vh |bzcb fc hnhec|c|vhvc|vcldb c lrc zc|revhvc ngn |gng qcnlgehvc hee–hllbvvhycgnb fc cpgvb|c nbgleh||cldb bldb cn kbnbzheb lgnabz`hng e–b|c|vbnyh fc lgzzbehycgnc |ckncaclhvcqb vzh cnlzb`bnvc fbc
pzbyyc zbehvcqc fh rn ehvg% b h`pech`bnvg fbe fbaclcv b|vbzg fhee–hevzg. Vhec ebkh`czc|revhng gevzbvrvvg zcjhfcvc hnldb fhc vb|v fc lgzzbehycgnb |re nb||g vzh lg|vc rncvhzc bjcehnlch lg``bzlcheb% baabvvrhvc |rc phb|c fbee–Rncgnb `gnbvhzch brzgpbh. Ebzbkzb||cgnc lgnabz`hng cn ehzkh pzbqhebnyh ce |bkng hvvb|g b zc|revhng cn kbnbzheb
lhzhvvbzcyyhvb fh rn kzhfg hppzbyyhjceb fc |ckncaclhvcqcvï. \c qbfhng kec GBLFBlgng`cl grveggm| b kec C@A |vhaa phpbz| fbkec revc`c hnnc $Fzr``gnf bv he. :??1#.Cn ebvvbzhvrzh qcbnb xrcnfc lgnabz`hvh pbz c phb|c GBLF eh lgzzbehycgnb nbkhvcqh vzhlg|vg rncvhzcg b |hefg lg``bzlcheb% he ec`cvb lgn rnh |ckncaclhvcqcvï fblzb|lbnvb helzb|lbzb fbe zbffcvg pzglhpcvb fbe phb|b b|h`cnhvg. Laz. Lhzecn% Kesn% Qhn Zbbnbn
$:??8#. Ce ebkh`b ä frnxrb he ec`cvb h|c``bvzclg% b pgvzbjjb hnldb pbz xrb|vg hqbzbzcpbzlr||cgnc nbkhvcqb |gpzhvvrvvg |rc phb|c cn fbaclcv. Cn gknc lh|g pbzú b||g |b`jzhvzgqhzb nr`bzg|b lgnabz`b. \c jhfc gevzbvrvvg ldb xrb|vc zc|revhvc |gng |vhvc gvvbnrvc
ahlbnfg zcabzc`bnvg hc |gec lg|vc% ce ldb |ckncaclh ldb b||c zc|revbzbjjbzg hnlgz pcóbqcfbnvc |b eb |vc`b qbnc||bzg baabvvrhvb b|h`cnhnfg fczbvvh`bnvb c pzbyyc $eh zhkcgnb ä|b`peclb9 eh fcnh`clh fbc lg|vc rncvhzc pgvzbjjb b||bzb lg`pbn|hvh fh rn hnfh`bnvg
lgnvzhzcg fbc `hzkcnc fc pzgacvvg% ce ldb bqcfbnvb`bnvb ngn prú hqqbnczb pbz c pzbyyc#.
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6. C lgnvc b|vbzc ―fg`cnhng‐ |rc lgnvc prjjeclc
Xrhec pgvzbjjbzg b||bzb kec baabvvc fc rnh pzgkzb||cqh b|phn|cgnb fbc fc|hqhnyc
b|vbzc7 Rnh pg||cjcecvï ä ldb vhec fc|hqhnyc h egzg qgevh |aglcng cn rnh lzc|c fbe
fbjcvg% b cn phzvclgehzb cn rnh lzc|c fbe jcehnlcg prjjeclg. \c ngvc eh |bxrbnyh
lhr|heb ldb qcbnb xrc |rkkbzcvh9 ä e–hnfh`bnvg fbc lgnvc b|vbzc ldb prúpzgqglhzb rnh lzc|c fbc lgnvc prjjeclc. Cn rn lbzvg |bn|g lcgä c pzc`c
pgvzbjjbzg ―fg`cnhzb‐ c |blgnfc. Xrb|vh vb|c ngn ä nrgqh% fhe `g`bnvg ldb
qhzcb zclbzldb dhnng bqcfbnychvg ce zrgeg fbe fc|hqhnyg b|vbzg nbeeh
fbvbz`cnhycgnb fbeeh |g|vbncjcecvï fbc jcehnlc |vhvhec.8<
B||h lg`rnxrb phzb
vzgqhzb rn zc|lgnvzg hnldb cn rn ng|vzg vb|v |reeh |bn|cjcecvï fbc fcaabzbnychecfbc vh||c f–cnvbzb||b zc|pbvvg hee–hnfh`bnvg fbc lgnvc prjjeclc b fbc lgnvc b|vbzc.
Hjjch`g cnahvvc zcebqhvg ldb c fcaabzbnychec vzh c vh||c |rc vcvgec prjjeclc cvhechnc
b c vh||c |rc vcvgec prjjeclc vbfb|ldc zc|revhng |vhvc|vclh`bnvb `gevg pcó |bn|cjcec
heeh fcnh`clh fbeeh jcehnlch lg``bzlcheb cvhechnh ldb h xrbeeh fbe jcehnlcg
|vhvheb cvhechng. Cn phzvclgehzb% hjjch`g zcebqhvg ldb eh qhzchycgnb fbeeg |pzbhf
vzh c vh||c |rc vcvgec prjjeclc “ |ch h jzbqb ldb h pcó ernkg vbz`cnb - fc
Kbz`hnch b Cvhech zc|revh |bn|cjceb heeb qhzchycgnc fbe |hefg b|vbzg cvhechng cn
zhppgzvg he _ce lgn rnh |ckncaclhvcqcvï |rpbzcgzb hee–rng pbz `ceeb% `bnvzb ngnzc|revh |ckncaclhvcqg ce phzh`bvzg fc |bn|cjcecvï fbeeg |pzbhf heeb qhzchycgnc fbe
fbaclcv prjjeclg nhycgnheb cn zhppgzvg he _ce. Zcnqch`g h vheb zckrhzfg heeh
Hppbnfclb fbe pzb|bnvb hzvclgeg.
Rnh pg||cjceb |pcbkhycgnb fc xrb|vg zc|revhvg ä eh |bkrbnvb. Lg`b ä
ngvg% e–rnclh lczlg|vhnyh cn lrc |ch eblcvg hvvbnfbz|c rnh qbnfcvh cn `h||h fc
vcvgec prjjeclc ä xrbeeh cn lrc |ch fcaar|h eh pzbqc|cgnb fc rnh lhfrvh fbe egzg
qhegzb arvrzg. Gzh% nbee–h`jcvg fbeeh vbgzch lzcvclh% c `gvcqc pbz lrc rnh
pzbqc|cgnb fbe kbnbzb pgvzbjjb c`pgz|c |gng c pcó |qhzchvc% cnler|h
rn–cncychvcqh lggzfcnhvh fbc lg|cffbvvc ―ehzkb pehsbz|‐ |re `bzlhvg acnhnychzcg
cnvbznhycgnheb.86
Vrvvhqch% nb``bng ce pgvbzb fc `bzlhvg fbc kzhnfc gpbzhvgzc
acnhnychzc pgvzï zcvbnbz|c cnacncvg. Cn kbnbzheb ä eblcvg zcvbnbzb ldb b||c |c
lgeegldcng h `byyh |vzhfh vzh e–hvvcqcvï fbe ―ahzb‐ b e–hvvcqcvï fbe ―pzbqbfbzb‐
kec hnfh`bnvc fbe `bzlhvg. Ce ldb |ckncaclh ldb eh egzg fblc|cgnb fc lggzfcnhzb
8<\c qbfh hf b|b`pcg @hnh||b b Zgrjcnc $:??2#.
86E–cpgvb|c ldb ce `bzlhvg acnhnychzcg pg||h b||bzb lgnvzhffc|vcnvg fh rnh |vzrvvrzh
ngn lgnlgzzbnycheb ngn lg|vcvrc|lb pcó rnh pzbzgkhvcqh fbeeh |geh vbgzch lzcvclh. Hnldbnbee–h`jcvg fbe `hnc|vzbh` qhnng fcaagnfbnfg|c hnhec|c fbfclhvb he pgvbzb fc `bzlhvgfbc lg|cffbvvc ―ehzkb pehsbz|‐ fbeeh acnhnyh cnvbznhycgnheb $vzh kec hevzc% |c qbfh
Lgz|bvvc% _b|bnvc b Zgrjcnc :??8#.
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rn hvvhllg |pblrehvcqg ngn |hzï hzjcvzhzch% `h hqqbzzï |geg cn phzvclgehzclczlg|vhnyb% g||ch xrhnfg |c lzbcng lgnfcycgnc b|gkbnb ahqgzbqgec pbz rnh
|lg``b||h lgn krhfhkng hvvb|g pg|cvcqg g he ec`cvb nreeg. \c pgnb heegzh ce
pzgjeb`h fc lhpczb cn xrhec lh|c |pblcaclc vhec lgnfcycgnc pg||gng qbncz|c hfbvbz`cnhzb. H xrb|vg zckrhzfg% |pblche`bnvb cn Cvhech% |c vbnfb h zcldch`hzb
e–hvvbnycgnb |re pbzclgeg fc rnh lzc|c fbc lgnvc prjjeclc cn xrhnvg vhec% lcgä
|bnyh cnaerbnyb b|vbznb9 qheb h fczb rnh lzc|c ac|lheb fbeeg \vhvg fbzcqhnvb fh
rnh lhvvcqh kb|vcgnb fbe jcehnlcg% fh rn fbaclcv prjjeclg bllb||cqg b fh rnh|gpzhqqbnrvh cnlhphlcvï fc zc`jgz|g fbc fbjcvc. @cngzb hvvbnycgnb |b`jzh
cnqblb b||bzb zcqgevh heeh pg||cjcecvï ldb eh pbzfcvh fc lg`pbvcvcqcvï nhycgnheb b
eh vbnfbnyh he fbaclcv b|vbzg hllzb|lhng eb h|pbvvhvcqb fc rn hjjhnfgng fbeeh
`gnbvh rnclh b fc rn lgn|bkrbnvb fbpzbyyh`bnvg fbc vcvgec nhycgnhec% b xrcnfc
|pcnkhng hf rnh qbnfcvh cn `h||h fbkec |vb||c. Bpprzb% vzh c frb lh|c% ce ng|vzgvb|v |vhvc|vclg |b`jzbzbjjb cnfclhzb rn–hvvbnycgnb `hkkcgzb fbkec gpbzhvgzc he
fbaclcv b|vbzg zc|pbvvg he fbaclcv prjjeclg cn xrhnvg vheb. Lgn lcú ngn |c qrgeb
gqqch`bnvb nbkhzb zcebqhnyh hc ecqbeec% h||gervc b zbehvcqc% fbe fbjcvg b fbe
fbaclcv prjjeclg. Vrvvhqch ce vb|v |b`jzh |rkkbzczb ldb rn fbpzbyyh`bnvg fbc
vcvgec nhycgnhec lhr|hvg fheeg |khnlch`bnvg fhee–brzg pgvzbjjb zhppzb|bnvhzb
e–bqbnvrhecvï zcvbnrvh pcó pzgjhjceb fhkec gpbzhvgzc acnhnychzc. Ce ldb cn agnfg
hpphzb egkclh`bnvb kcr|vcaclhjceb. E–b|phn|cgnb fbe fbaclcv b|vbzg cn zhppgzvg
he zbffcvg ä rn cnfclb fc fbvbzcgzh`bnvg fbeeb xrgvb fc `bzlhvg |pbvvhnvchee–cnfr|vzch nhycgnheb. B||h xrcnfc prú |r|lcvhzb zbhycgnc pgecvcldb hqqbz|b% eb
xrhec pgvzbjjbzg lbzlhzb |jgllg cn rnh zcldcb|vh fc hjjhnfgng fbee–rncgnb
`gnbvhzch b fc fbpzbyyh`bnvg. Ngn |c prú fczb cnqblb eg |vb||g fbe fbaclcv
prjjeclg% ce lrc hr`bnvg cn zhppgzvg he zbffcvg ngn pzb|bnvh nb||rnh zbehycgnb
c``bfchvh b nblb||hzch lge qhegzb arvrzg hvvb|g fbc vcvgec. Cn ecnbh fc pzcnlcpcg%
b|c|vbzhnng cnacncvb lg`jcnhycgnc fc fbaclcv b fbjcvg prjjeclg vblnclh`bnvb
|g|vbncjcec.82
Cn|g``h% |ch |re pchng b`pczclg ldb |r xrbeeg przh`bnvb egkclg%
e–cfbh ldb rnh lzc|c fbc lgnvc b|vbzc |ch fg`cnhnvb b pzcgzcvhzch zc|pbvvg h rnh
lzc|c fbc lgnvc prjjeclc |b`jzh vzgqhzb fcqbz|c zc|lgnvzc. Lc phzb frnxrb ldb c
azbxrbnvc heehz`c |reeh |g|vbncjcecvï fbc lgnvc prjjeclc cn xrhnvg vhec “ qheb h
fczb |bnyh helrn zcabzc`bnvg heeh fcnh`clh fbc lgnvc b|vbzc “ fbzcqcng fh
zhkcgnh`bnvc phzychec b pg||hng zcqbehz|c argzqchnvc.81
Bf ä gppgzvrng ldchzczb
82\reeh |g|vbncjcecvï fbe fbjcvg prjjeclg nbee–h`jcvg fbeeh c`pg|vhycgnb lzcvclh% b |re
nb||g vzh lgnvc prjjeclc b lgnvc b|vbzc% zcnqch`g h _h|cnbvvc $8334# b Lcllgnb $:??:#._bz rn pg||cjceb cnfczcyyg hevbznhvcqg fc pgecvclh fbe fbjcvg prjjeclg% laz. Jzhnlhllcg bZbheagnyg $:??1#.81
\reeb fbvbz`cnhnvc fc rnh pg||cjceb lzc|c fbc lgnvc prjjeclc% ä cnvbzb||hnvb eh ebvvrzhfc rng |lh`jcg bpc|vgehzb cnbfcvg vzh Vg``h|g _hfgh \ldcgpph b Azhnlg @gfckechnczc|hebnvb he 833<% lgn ce pzc`g ldb cnfcqcfrhqh eb lhr|b fbc zcjh||c fbc vcvgec prjjeclc
cvhechnc nbee–bllb||cqg fbaclcv prjjeclg b ce |blgnfg ldb cnqblb hvvzcjrcqh `hkkcgzb
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ldb ce zrgeg fbc lgnvc b|vbzc hc acnc fbeeh |g|vbncjcecvï fbc lgnvc prjjeclcpgvzbjjb zc|revhzb phzvclgehz`bnvb c`pgzvhnvb nbeeh hvvrheb ah|b fc cn|vhjcecvï
acnhnychzch kbnbzhecyyhvh b fc pg||cjceb lzc|c fbeeb pzg|pbvvcqb fc lzb|lcvh fbe
zbffcvg.\vch`g lgn lcú |g|vbnbnfg ldb c phb|c fbe \rf Brzgph% b cn phzvclgehzb
e–Cvhech% |c pzbphzhng h |khnlchz|c fheeh `gnbvh rnclh brzgpbh b h fbpzbyyhzb eb
pzgpzcb qhervb nhycgnhec7 \vch`g lcgä c``hkcnhnfg ldb hnldb nbee–h`jcvg
fbeeh rncgnb `gnbvhzch pg||h qbzcaclhz|c rnh |cvrhycgnb hnhegkh he vzhlgeeg fbe\c|vb`h `gnbvhzcg brzgpbg fbe 833:7 B– jbnb ldchzczb ldb rnh bqbnvrhecvï fbe
kbnbzb hnfzbjjb b|h`cnhvh vbnbnfg lgnvg fbeeb lg`peb`bnvhzcvï b fbkec
baabvvc h lhvbnh vzh phb|c ldb vcpclh`bnvb lhzhvvbzcyyhng rnh lzc|c. Qgebnfg
vrvvhqch lgnlbnvzhzb e–hvvbnycgnb |gevhnvg |ree–Cvhech% rnh qhecfh zc|pg|vh
hee–cnvbzzgkhvcqg zcldcbfbzbjjb rn–hnhec|c hllrzhvh fbeeh zc|vzrvvrzhycgnblhpcvhec|vclh `b||h cn hvvg nbe ng|vzg phb|b frzhnvb e–revc`g xrcnfclbnncg. \c
vzhvvbzbjjb lcgä fc lhpczb |b fhkec hvvrhec h||bvvc fc pgvbzb fbe lhpcvhec|`g
nhycgnheb pg||h fbzcqhzb rn lgn|bn|g pzbqhebnvb nbc lgnazgnvc fbeeg
|khnlch`bnvg fheeh `gnbvh rnclh% cn zc|pg|vh heeh lzc|c blgng`clh g heeh
pbzfcvh fc xrgvb fc `bzlhvg cnvbznhycgnheb. _bz xrhnvg |pcnvb cn vhe |bn|g ngn
`hnldcng% e–bqbnvrhecvï fc rng |khnlch`bnvg fhee–brzg hpphzb heeg |vhvg fbc
ahvvc pgecvclh`bnvb zb`gvh. @h xrb|vg% |c jhfc jbnb% ngn b|lerfb eh pg||cjcecvï
fc rnh qbnfcvh cn `h||h fc vcvgec prjjeclc9 cnahvvc% eh lzc|c fc jcehnlcg cnfgvvhfheeg |xrcecjzcg fbc lgnvc b|vbzc pgvzbjjb qbzcaclhz|c hnldb |b e–c`peg|cgnb
fbee–Rncgnb `gnbvhzch ngn hqb||b ergkg. Rnh qbnfcvh |r ehzkh |lheh fc vcvgec
prú zbhecyyhz|c przb nbe lh|g cn lrc hr`bnvc eh |geh pzgjhjcecvï fc rng
|khnlch`bnvg fhee–brzg b fc rn fbpzbyyh`bnvg fbeeh qhervh nhycgnheb% `hkhzc
cnfgvvh fh |pg|vh`bnvc `hzkcnhec fbkec gzcbnvh`bnvc b fbeeb zbehvcqb hvvb|b cn
vhe |bn|g. Eh zhkcgnb ä ldb ce qhegzb fbc vcvgec cnlgzpgzh c qhzc pg||cjcec |vhvc
arvrzc fbe `gnfg% cnler|g e–hjjhnfgng fbee–brzg% cnfcpbnfbnvb`bnvb fhe ahvvg
ldb b||g hzzcqc g `bng h zbhecyyhz|c lgnlzbvh`bnvb. Hnyc% ngn |c prú b|lerfbzb
ldb pzgpzcg ce qbzcaclhz|c fbeeh lzc|c fc jcehnlcg pg||h hpzczb eh |vzhfh hf rn
revbzcgzb vbnvhvcqg fc fbaehycgnb cnvbznh% vb|g hf bqcvhzb e–hjjhnfgng fbee–brzg.
_gvzbjjb hllhfbzb lcgä ldb eh qbnfcvh cn `h||h fc vcvgec h||r`h c vzhvvc fc rnh
―lzc|c fc|lcpecnhnvb‐% qheb h fczb rnh |cvrhycgnb pgecvclh`bnvb ahqgzbqgeb
hee–revbzcgzb hjjhvvc`bnvg fbeeh |pb|h prjjeclh b fbc |hehzc.
zcebqhnyh heeh pbzfcvh fc lg`pbvcvcqcvï nhycgnheb% he fbaclcv b|vbzg b he zc|ldcg fcrevbzcgzc fbpzbyyh`bnvc fbe lh`jcg $|c qbfhng cn pzgpg|cvg H||g :??; b Jzhnlhllcg
:??3h#.
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2. Fcaar|cgnb fbc lgnvzhvvc hvcpclc% fc|gllrphycgnb b fbaehycgnb |hehzcheb
Hf gknc `gfg% cnfcpbnfbnvb`bnvb fhe ahvvg ldb ce fbaclcv lg``bzlcheb fchergkg h rnh lzc|c fbe jcehnlcg prjjeclg b ldb xrb|vh h||r`h g `bng c vzhvvc fc
rnh lzc|c ―fc|lcpecnhnvb‐% lc |c prú cnvbzzgkhzb |reeh baaclhlch fbeeb hycgnc
acnhecyyhvb h lgnvbnbzb eh lhr|h pzc`h fc xrb|vc pg||cjcec abng`bnc% qheb h fczb
eh pbzfcvh fc lg`pbvcvcqcvï fbeeb `bzlc nhycgnhec. H xrb|vg zckrhzfg% eh lzc|cblgng`clh ngn |b`jzh acngzh hqbz `rvhvg eg |lbnhzcg fbeeh pgecvclh
blgng`clh nhycgnheb. Eh |bn|hycgnb% cnahvvc% ä ldb |c cnvbnfh pzg|bkrczb ernkg
ce `bfb|c`g |bnvcbzg fbaehycgnc|vh fbee–revc`g xrcnfclbnncg. _rú b||bzb
frnxrb gppgzvrng b|h`cnhzb helrnc fbc pg||cjcec baabvvc fc rnh |lbevh fbe
kbnbzb. \gaabz`ch`glc cn phzvclgehzb |reeb lgn|bkrbnyb fc rnh bqbnvrheb%hnlgz pcó `hzlhvh b|phn|cgnb fbc lgnvzhvvc hvcpclc b rnh lgn|bkrbnvb revbzcgzb
zcfrycgnb fbc zbkc`c fc pzgvbycgnb fbc ehqgzhvgzc. Nbe fcjhvvcvg pgecvclg cvhechng
|c ä |pb||g |g|vbnrvg ldb eh zcfrycgnb fbeeb pzgvbycgnc fbvbz`cnh rn hr`bnvg
fbee–gllrphycgnb b rnh zcfrycgnb fbc vh||c fc fc|gllrphycgnb.8;
Vrvvhqch
xrb|vh vb|c ngn |b`jzh vzgqhzb |rppgzvg nbc fhvc. Fgpg hnnc fc zclbzldb b fc
vb|v |vhvc|vclc% cnahvvc% ä gkkc ehzkh`bnvb hllbvvhvh e–cfbh ldb ngn qc |ch helrnh
zbehycgnb |ckncaclhvcqh vzh eb qhzchycgnc fbeeb pzgvbycgnc fbc ehqgzhvgzc b eb
qhzchycgnc fbeeh fc|gllrphycgnb.84
Fc lgnqbz|g% pgvzbjjb b||bzb cnvbzb||hnvb fg`hnfhz|c |b eh zcfrycgnb
fbeeb pzgvbycgnc fbc ehqgzhvgzc hjjch hkcvg pcó |re qbz|hnvb fbeeh fc|vzcjrycgnb
ldb |r xrbeeg fbe ecqbeeg fbe zbffcvg pzgfgvvg b fbc lgnnb||c baabvvc |reeh
fc|gllrphycgnb. Rn |b`peclb b|b`pcg he zckrhzfg prú agz|b gaazczb xrheldb
rvceb |prnvg fc zcaeb||cgnb. @bvvch`g cn zbehycgnb eb qhzchycgnc fbee–cnfclb fc
pzgvbycgnb ngz`hvcqh fbc ehqgzhvgzc lhelgehvg fhee–GBLF $fbvvg B_E%
B`pegs`bnv _zgvblvcgn Ebkc|ehvcgn#% b eb qhzchycgnc zc|pbvvcqh`bnvb fbeeh
fc|gllrphycgnb b fbeeh xrgvh fbeeh pzgfrycgnb vgvheb hvvzcjrcvh he ehqgzg% nbe
pbzcgfg ldb qh fhe 833? he :??6. _zbnfbnfg vrvvc b qbnvrng c phb|c |rc xrhec ce
|r``bnycgnhvg fhvhjh|b fbee–GBLF zbnfb fc|pgncjcec eb zcebqhycgnc% |c
zbkc|vzh h||bnyh fc |ckncaclhvcqcvï |vhvc|vclh |ch vzh eb qhzchycgnc fbee–B_E b eb
8;\r xrb|vh ecnbh% vzh kec hevzc% laz. Azhnlb|lg Kchqhyyc $Lgzzcbzb fbeeh \bzh% :1 hkg|vg
:??;# b Vg``h|g _hfgh \ldcgpph $Ce \geb-:6 Gzb% :2 |bvvb`jzb :??;#.84
\c qbfh he zckrhzfg rnh zblbnvb zh||bknh fc Jehnldhzf $:??6#. Laz. hnldb kecB`pes`bnv Grveggm| fbee–GBLF fbfclhvc hc zbkc`c fc pzgvbycgnb fbee–c`pcbkg $|pblcbeb bfcycgnc fbe 8333 b fbe :??6#. B– cnvbzb||hnvb ngvhzb ldb `bnvzb nbc lczlrcvc
hllhfb`clc xrb|vb bqcfbnyb hpphcgng pcrvvg|vg lgn|gecfhvb% nbee–h`jcvg fbeehlg`rnclhycgnb pgecvclh qc |gng cnaerbnvc lg``bnvhvgzc ldb |b`jzhng vheqgevh lbfbzbheeh vbnvhycgnb fc vzh|lrzhzeb. Vhec xrb|vcgnc |gng |vhvb hnldb gkkbvvg fc rn fcjhvvcvg
|reeh |vh`ph nhycgnheb. \c qbfh Jzhnlhllcg $:??3h#.
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qhzchycgnc fbeeh fc|gllrphycgnb% |ch vzh eb `bfb|c`b qhzchycgnc fbee–B_E b ebqhzchycgnc fbeeh xrgvh fc pzgfgvvg |pbvvhnvb he ehqgzg. Vrvvhqch% nbe lh|g fbe
nb||g vzh B_E b fc|gllrphycgnb |c zbkc|vzh rn |bkng cnqbz|g zc|pbvvg h xrbeeg
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rnh lgzzbehycgnb ngn |geg pg|cvcqh `h hnldb |ckncaclhvcqh vzh B_E b xrgvh
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ngvc vzh kec hffbvvc hc ehqgzc. B||g vrvvhqch |b`jzh cnfclhzb ldb |b pzgpzcg |c
qgeb||bzg cnfhkhzb kec baabvvc `hlzgblgng`clc fbeeh aeb||cjcecvï fbe ehqgzg%
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:??<# b eg \vhnfhzfc|bf Rnb`pegs bnv Zhvb $qhzchycgnb h||gervh `bfch vzh ce 8338 bce :??6# ä phzc h -?%:3. Eh lgzzbehycgnb vzh eh `bfb|c`h B_E b eh Ehjgrz Cnlg`b\dhzb Zbhe REL Vgvhe Blgng`s $qhzchycgnb h||gervh `bfch vzh ce 8338 b ce :??6# ä fc?%8;. Ng|vzh behjgzhycgnb |r fhvc GBLF $:??;#% \vhvc|vcl|% dvvp9''|vhv|.gblf.gzk'{jg| .:?
C 3 phb|c lgn|cfbzhvc cn vhe lh|g |gng9 Jbekcg% Kbz`hnch% Fhnc`hzlh% \phknh%
Kzblch% Cvhech% _hb|c Jh||c% _gzvgkheeg% \qbych. B||c |gng |vhvc |bebycgnhvc ac||hnfg eh|gkech `cnc`h fbeeh qhzchycgnb `bfch fbeeh B_E vzh ce 833? b ce :??< he qhegzb fc -?%<$eg |lgpg ä |vhvg fc bec`cnhzb c phb|c lhzhvvbzcyyhvc fh qhzchycgnc nreeb g vzh|lrzhjcec#.
Cn vhe lh|g eh lgzzbehycgnb vzh Gqbzhee B_E qbz|cgn 8 b eg \vhnfhzfc|bf Rnb`pes`bnvZhvb ä |vhvh fc -?%:8. Eh lgzzbehycgnb vzh Gqbzhee B_E qbz|cgn 8 b eh Ehjgrz Cnlg`b\dhzb Zbhe REL Vgvhe Blgng`s ä |vhvh fc ?%;1. Ng|vzh behjgzhycgnb |r fhvc GBLF
$:??;#% \vhvc|vcl|% dvvp9''|vhv|.gblf.gzk'{jg| .
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1. \reeh baaclhlch fc rnh zbcvbzhvh fbaehycgnb |hehzcheb
@h |c prú fczb% fhvc heeh `hng% ldb rnh pgecvclh hnlgz pcó `hzlhvh`bnvb
fbaehycgnc|vh zhppzb|bnvc rnh |gerycgnb cn kzhfg baabvvcqh`bnvb fc zc`bvvbzb|gvvg lgnvzgeeg c lgnvc b|vbzc7 Ce nb||g lhr|heb vzh lg|vc b jcehnlch lg``bzlcheb
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8/9/2019 Brancaccio Studi Economici Preliminare
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