Brancaccio Studi Economici Preliminare

8/9/2019 Brancaccio Studi Economici Preliminare

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lgn|gecfhnfg|c ce fc|vhllg vzh eh pzgfrvvcqcvï `bfch fbc fgfclc b eb jbn pcó

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xrhvvzg phb|c fbe \rf Brzgph b vrvvc kec hevzc. Hf b|b`pcg% vzh ce 8331 b ce :??1 ce



;

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c`pzb|b pcó kzhnfc zcb|lgng h lgn|bkrczb rn `hkkcgz pzgfgvvg pbz gzh ehqgzhvh

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3H xrb|vh bqcfbnyh gllgzzb pgc

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eh xrheb dh agzvb`bnvb fhnnbkkchvg c phb|c lg|cffbvvc

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fcqhzcg vzh pzgfrvvcqcvï gzhzch vbfb|lh b cvhechnh ä ph||hvg fh 2 h 8? prnvc pbzlbnvrhec.

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Kbz`hnch b Cvhech ä pzhvclh`bnvb zhffgppchvg% ph||hnfg fh lczlh 4 prnvc $<?%24 lgnvzg::%88# h lczlh 81 prnvc $6<%1; lgnvzg :;%4#. _có cn kbnbzheb% hnldb nbe lh|g fbeehpzgfrvvcqcvï cn qhegzb nbe |bvvgzb fbeeb `hncahvvrzb% |c zbkc|vzh rn heehzkh`bnvg fbeehagzjclb vzh c phb|c fbe \rf Brzgph b vrvvc kec hevzc `b`jzc fbee–Rncgnb `gnbvhzch.

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zc|lgnvzc% vbgzclc bf b`pczclc. _bz e–Cvhech% |c qbfhng Gncfh $:??6# b C\VHV $:??;#.Vhec bqcfbnyb ngn |b`jzhng gaazczb |g|vbkng he lgnqcnlc`bnvg vrvvgzh fcaar|g ldb ehlg|cffbvvh ―qch cvhechnh‐ heeg |qcerppg lhpcvhec|vclg% agnfhvh |rc |c|vb`c h zbvb b |rcfc|vzbvvc% pg||h b||bzb hnlgzh lgn|cfbzhvh rnh |gerycgnb fc |rllb||g. \vhnfg hc fhvc |cpgvzbjjb hnyc zcvbnbzb ldb xrb|vh cfbh% `gevg cn qgkh nbkec hnnc –4? b —3?% hjjch

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`gnbvhzch brzgpbh% `c|rzhvh fhe lgbaaclcbnvb fc qhzchycgnb he xrhfzhvg% ph||h fh gevzb?%8 nbe 8332 h ?%?1 nbe :??2.88

Ce lgbaaclcbnvb fc qhzchycgnb he xrhfzhvg fbc lg|vc fbe ehqgzg pbz rncvï pzgfgvvh fbc

phb|c fbee–Rncgnb ä ph||hvg fh lczlh ?%?2 fbe 833? h lczlh ?%?8 fbe :??1.



4

lzb|lbzb ngvbqge`bnvb c egzg lg|vc rncvhzc% acng h zhkkcrnkbzb b h |rpbzhzbxrbeec fbeeh Kbz`hnch b fbkec hevzc phb|c lg|cffbvvc ―lbnvzhec‐ fbee–Rncgnb.

Cngevzb% ä pg||cjceb ldb cn arvrzg c lg|vc rncvhzc fbc phb|c fbe \rf Brzgph

vbnfhng hf hr`bnvhzb revbzcgz`bnvb% heegnvhnhnfg|c |b`pzb fc pcó fhc lg|vcfbkec hevzc phb|c. Hqhnych`g h xrb|vg zckrhzfg rnh cpgvb|c pzbec`cnhzb |rc

pg||cjcec hnfh`bnvc pzg|pbvvclc fbc lg|vc. Ce kzhaclg ldb |bkrb fb|lzcqb

e–hnfh`bnvg baabvvcqg fbc lg|vc acng he :??;% b pgc eh egzg pzgcbycgnb ecnbhzb

pbz kec hnnc |rllb||cqc. G||bzqhnfg kec hnfh`bnvc% |c lg`pzbnfb ldb |b ebfcnh`cldb fbee–revc`g fblbnncg qbnc||bzg cn arvrzg hnldb |geg phzyche`bnvb

lgnabz`hvb% eh vbnfbnyh lbnvzcarkh vzh c lg|vc cn |bng hee–Rncgnb pgvzbjjb

h||r`bzb pzgpgzycgnc bllbycgnhec $Ack. 8#.

Ack. 8



3

Nhvrzhe`bnvb eb fcnh`cldb pzg||c`b qbnvrzb pgvzbjjbzg h||r`bzb hnfh`bnvcngn |cnvbvcyyhjcec fh rnh `bzh pzgcbycgnb ecnbhzb. Vrvvhqch% ce kzhaclg `g|vzh

lgn rnh lbzvh ldchzbyyh ldb |b hnldb c lg|vc `hnvbnb||bzg |geg cn phzvb eb zgvvb

fbkec revc`c hnnc% eb fcqbzkbnyb pgvzbjjbzg zc|revhzb fcaaclce`bnvb |g|vbncjcec bfcqbnvbzbjjb eblcvg hvvbnfbz|c rn revbzcgzb heehzkh`bnvg fbkec |xrcecjzc nbc

lgnvc b|vbzc fbc qhzc phb|c.8:

Cn h||bnyh frnxrb fc lh`jch`bnvc |ckncaclhvcqc

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fg`hnfh% fbe zbffcvg b fbeeb c`pgzvhycgnc% |hzhnng c phb|c fbe \rf Brzgph h

zbkc|vzhzb c fbaclcv lg``bzlchec pcó lgn|c|vbnvc. Xrb|vc phb|c zc|revhng cnahvvc

lhzhvvbzcyyhvc fh rnh pcó jh||h lzb|lcvh fbeeh pzgfrvvcqcvï fbe ehqgzg% fh lg|vc b

pzbyyc zbehvcqc |b`pzb pcó hevc% b xrcnfc fgqzbjjbzg vbnfbzb pcó ahlce`bnvbfbkec hevzc hf hllr`rehzb fc|hqhnyc lgn e–b|vbzg.

8: Nbee–h`jcvg fbeeh c`pg|vhycgnb lzcvclh c nb||c lhr|hec vzh pzbyyc zbehvcqc b lgnvc b|vbzc|gng pcó lg`peb||c b |gvvg lbzvc h|pbvvc pcó fcaaclcec fh fbvbz`cnhzb zc|pbvvg h xrbeec

vcpclc fbee–hnhec|c nbgleh||clh. Vrvvhqch eh egzg pehr|cjcecvï ngn qcbnb nbkhvh% nã |repchng vbgzclg nã |r xrbeeg b`pczclg. H vheb zckrhzfg% l–ä rnh qh|vh |bzcb fc hnhec|c|vhvc|vcldb c lrc zc|revhvc ngn |gng qcnlgehvc hee–hllbvvhycgnb fc cpgvb|c nbgleh||cldb bldb cn kbnbzheb lgnabz`hng e–b|c|vbnyh fc lgzzbehycgnc |ckncaclhvcqb vzh cnlzb`bnvc fbc

pzbyyc zbehvcqc fh rn ehvg% b h`pech`bnvg fbe fbaclcv b|vbzg fhee–hevzg. Vhec ebkh`czc|revhng gevzbvrvvg zcjhfcvc hnldb fhc vb|v fc lgzzbehycgnb |re nb||g vzh lg|vc rncvhzc bjcehnlch lg``bzlcheb% baabvvrhvc |rc phb|c fbee–Rncgnb `gnbvhzch brzgpbh. Ebzbkzb||cgnc lgnabz`hng cn ehzkh pzbqhebnyh ce |bkng hvvb|g b zc|revhng cn kbnbzheb

lhzhvvbzcyyhvb fh rn kzhfg hppzbyyhjceb fc |ckncaclhvcqcvï. \c qbfhng kec GBLFBlgng`cl grveggm| b kec C@A |vhaa phpbz| fbkec revc`c hnnc $Fzr``gnf bv he. :??1#.Cn ebvvbzhvrzh qcbnb xrcnfc lgnabz`hvh pbz c phb|c GBLF eh lgzzbehycgnb nbkhvcqh vzhlg|vg rncvhzcg b |hefg lg``bzlcheb% he ec`cvb lgn rnh |ckncaclhvcqcvï fblzb|lbnvb helzb|lbzb fbe zbffcvg pzglhpcvb fbe phb|b b|h`cnhvg. Laz. Lhzecn% Kesn% Qhn Zbbnbn

$:??8#. Ce ebkh`b ä frnxrb he ec`cvb h|c``bvzclg% b pgvzbjjb hnldb pbz xrb|vg hqbzbzcpbzlr||cgnc nbkhvcqb |gpzhvvrvvg |rc phb|c cn fbaclcv. Cn gknc lh|g pbzú b||g |b`jzhvzgqhzb nr`bzg|b lgnabz`b. \c jhfc gevzbvrvvg ldb xrb|vc zc|revhvc |gng |vhvc gvvbnrvc

ahlbnfg zcabzc`bnvg hc |gec lg|vc% ce ldb |ckncaclh ldb b||c zc|revbzbjjbzg hnlgz pcóbqcfbnvc |b eb |vc`b qbnc||bzg baabvvrhvb b|h`cnhnfg fczbvvh`bnvb c pzbyyc $eh zhkcgnb ä|b`peclb9 eh fcnh`clh fbc lg|vc rncvhzc pgvzbjjb b||bzb lg`pbn|hvh fh rn hnfh`bnvg

lgnvzhzcg fbc `hzkcnc fc pzgacvvg% ce ldb bqcfbnvb`bnvb ngn prú hqqbnczb pbz c pzbyyc#.



8?

6. C lgnvc b|vbzc ―fg`cnhng‐ |rc lgnvc prjjeclc

Xrhec pgvzbjjbzg b||bzb kec baabvvc fc rnh pzgkzb||cqh b|phn|cgnb fbc fc|hqhnyc

b|vbzc7 Rnh pg||cjcecvï ä ldb vhec fc|hqhnyc h egzg qgevh |aglcng cn rnh lzc|c fbe

fbjcvg% b cn phzvclgehzb cn rnh lzc|c fbe jcehnlcg prjjeclg. \c ngvc eh |bxrbnyh

lhr|heb ldb qcbnb xrc |rkkbzcvh9 ä e–hnfh`bnvg fbc lgnvc b|vbzc ldb prúpzgqglhzb rnh lzc|c fbc lgnvc prjjeclc. Cn rn lbzvg |bn|g lcgä c pzc`c

pgvzbjjbzg ―fg`cnhzb‐ c |blgnfc. Xrb|vh vb|c ngn ä nrgqh% fhe `g`bnvg ldb

qhzcb zclbzldb dhnng bqcfbnychvg ce zrgeg fbe fc|hqhnyg b|vbzg nbeeh

fbvbz`cnhycgnb fbeeh |g|vbncjcecvï fbc jcehnlc |vhvhec.8<

B||h lg`rnxrb phzb

vzgqhzb rn zc|lgnvzg hnldb cn rn ng|vzg vb|v |reeh |bn|cjcecvï fbc fcaabzbnychecfbc vh||c f–cnvbzb||b zc|pbvvg hee–hnfh`bnvg fbc lgnvc prjjeclc b fbc lgnvc b|vbzc.

Hjjch`g cnahvvc zcebqhvg ldb c fcaabzbnychec vzh c vh||c |rc vcvgec prjjeclc cvhechnc

b c vh||c |rc vcvgec prjjeclc vbfb|ldc zc|revhng |vhvc|vclh`bnvb `gevg pcó |bn|cjcec

heeh fcnh`clh fbeeh jcehnlch lg``bzlcheb cvhechnh ldb h xrbeeh fbe jcehnlcg

|vhvheb cvhechng. Cn phzvclgehzb% hjjch`g zcebqhvg ldb eh qhzchycgnb fbeeg |pzbhf

vzh c vh||c |rc vcvgec prjjeclc “ |ch h jzbqb ldb h pcó ernkg vbz`cnb - fc

Kbz`hnch b Cvhech zc|revh |bn|cjceb heeb qhzchycgnc fbe |hefg b|vbzg cvhechng cn

zhppgzvg he _ce lgn rnh |ckncaclhvcqcvï |rpbzcgzb hee–rng pbz `ceeb% `bnvzb ngnzc|revh |ckncaclhvcqg ce phzh`bvzg fc |bn|cjcecvï fbeeg |pzbhf heeb qhzchycgnc fbe

fbaclcv prjjeclg nhycgnheb cn zhppgzvg he _ce. Zcnqch`g h vheb zckrhzfg heeh

Hppbnfclb fbe pzb|bnvb hzvclgeg.

Rnh pg||cjceb |pcbkhycgnb fc xrb|vg zc|revhvg ä eh |bkrbnvb. Lg`b ä

ngvg% e–rnclh lczlg|vhnyh cn lrc |ch eblcvg hvvbnfbz|c rnh qbnfcvh cn `h||h fc

vcvgec prjjeclc ä xrbeeh cn lrc |ch fcaar|h eh pzbqc|cgnb fc rnh lhfrvh fbe egzg

qhegzb arvrzg. Gzh% nbee–h`jcvg fbeeh vbgzch lzcvclh% c `gvcqc pbz lrc rnh

pzbqc|cgnb fbe kbnbzb pgvzbjjb c`pgz|c |gng c pcó |qhzchvc% cnler|h

rn–cncychvcqh lggzfcnhvh fbc lg|cffbvvc ―ehzkb pehsbz|‐ |re `bzlhvg acnhnychzcg

cnvbznhycgnheb.86

Vrvvhqch% nb``bng ce pgvbzb fc `bzlhvg fbc kzhnfc gpbzhvgzc

acnhnychzc pgvzï zcvbnbz|c cnacncvg. Cn kbnbzheb ä eblcvg zcvbnbzb ldb b||c |c

lgeegldcng h `byyh |vzhfh vzh e–hvvcqcvï fbe ―ahzb‐ b e–hvvcqcvï fbe ―pzbqbfbzb‐

kec hnfh`bnvc fbe `bzlhvg. Ce ldb |ckncaclh ldb eh egzg fblc|cgnb fc lggzfcnhzb

8<\c qbfh hf b|b`pcg @hnh||b b Zgrjcnc $:??2#.

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|pcnkhng hf rnh qbnfcvh cn `h||h fbkec |vb||c. Bpprzb% vzh c frb lh|c% ce ng|vzgvb|v |vhvc|vclg |b`jzbzbjjb cnfclhzb rn–hvvbnycgnb `hkkcgzb fbkec gpbzhvgzc he

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xrhec pgvzbjjbzg lbzlhzb |jgllg cn rnh zcldcb|vh fc hjjhnfgng fbee–rncgnb

`gnbvhzch b fc fbpzbyyh`bnvg. Ngn |c prú fczb cnqblb eg |vb||g fbe fbaclcv

prjjeclg% ce lrc hr`bnvg cn zhppgzvg he zbffcvg ngn pzb|bnvh nb||rnh zbehycgnb

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b|c|vbzhnng cnacncvb lg`jcnhycgnc fc fbaclcv b fbjcvg prjjeclg vblnclh`bnvb

|g|vbncjcec.82

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zhkcgnh`bnvc phzychec b pg||hng zcqbehz|c argzqchnvc.81

Bf ä gppgzvrng ldchzczb

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8:

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acnhnychzch kbnbzhecyyhvh b fc pg||cjceb lzc|c fbeeb pzg|pbvvcqb fc lzb|lcvh fbe

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pzgpzcb qhervb nhycgnhec7 \vch`g lcgä c``hkcnhnfg ldb hnldb nbee–h`jcvg

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baabvvc h lhvbnh vzh phb|c ldb vcpclh`bnvb lhzhvvbzcyyhng rnh lzc|c. Qgebnfg

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|khnlch`bnvg fheeh `gnbvh rnclh% cn zc|pg|vh heeh lzc|c blgng`clh g heeh

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arvrzc fbe `gnfg% cnler|g e–hjjhnfgng fbee–brzg% cnfcpbnfbnvb`bnvb fhe ahvvg

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ldb pzgpzcg ce qbzcaclhz|c fbeeh lzc|c fc jcehnlcg pg||h hpzczb eh |vzhfh hf rn

revbzcgzb vbnvhvcqg fc fbaehycgnb cnvbznh% vb|g hf bqcvhzb e–hjjhnfgng fbee–brzg.

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hee–revbzcgzb hjjhvvc`bnvg fbeeh |pb|h prjjeclh b fbc |hehzc.

zcebqhnyh heeh pbzfcvh fc lg`pbvcvcqcvï nhycgnheb% he fbaclcv b|vbzg b he zc|ldcg fcrevbzcgzc fbpzbyyh`bnvc fbe lh`jcg $|c qbfhng cn pzgpg|cvg H||g :??; b Jzhnlhllcg

:??3h#.



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2. Fcaar|cgnb fbc lgnvzhvvc hvcpclc% fc|gllrphycgnb b fbaehycgnb |hehzcheb

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rnh lzc|c ―fc|lcpecnhnvb‐% lc |c prú cnvbzzgkhzb |reeh baaclhlch fbeeb hycgnc

acnhecyyhvb h lgnvbnbzb eh lhr|h pzc`h fc xrb|vc pg||cjcec abng`bnc% qheb h fczb

eh pbzfcvh fc lg`pbvcvcqcvï fbeeb `bzlc nhycgnhec. H xrb|vg zckrhzfg% eh lzc|cblgng`clh ngn |b`jzh acngzh hqbz `rvhvg eg |lbnhzcg fbeeh pgecvclh

blgng`clh nhycgnheb. Eh |bn|hycgnb% cnahvvc% ä ldb |c cnvbnfh pzg|bkrczb ernkg

ce `bfb|c`g |bnvcbzg fbaehycgnc|vh fbee–revc`g xrcnfclbnncg. _rú b||bzb

frnxrb gppgzvrng b|h`cnhzb helrnc fbc pg||cjcec baabvvc fc rnh |lbevh fbe

kbnbzb. \gaabz`ch`glc cn phzvclgehzb |reeb lgn|bkrbnyb fc rnh bqbnvrheb%hnlgz pcó `hzlhvh b|phn|cgnb fbc lgnvzhvvc hvcpclc b rnh lgn|bkrbnvb revbzcgzb

zcfrycgnb fbc zbkc`c fc pzgvbycgnb fbc ehqgzhvgzc. Nbe fcjhvvcvg pgecvclg cvhechng

|c ä |pb||g |g|vbnrvg ldb eh zcfrycgnb fbeeb pzgvbycgnc fbvbz`cnh rn hr`bnvg

fbee–gllrphycgnb b rnh zcfrycgnb fbc vh||c fc fc|gllrphycgnb.8;

Vrvvhqch

xrb|vh vb|c ngn |b`jzh vzgqhzb |rppgzvg nbc fhvc. Fgpg hnnc fc zclbzldb b fc

vb|v |vhvc|vclc% cnahvvc% ä gkkc ehzkh`bnvb hllbvvhvh e–cfbh ldb ngn qc |ch helrnh

zbehycgnb |ckncaclhvcqh vzh eb qhzchycgnc fbeeb pzgvbycgnc fbc ehqgzhvgzc b eb

qhzchycgnc fbeeh fc|gllrphycgnb.84

Fc lgnqbz|g% pgvzbjjb b||bzb cnvbzb||hnvb fg`hnfhz|c |b eh zcfrycgnb

fbeeb pzgvbycgnc fbc ehqgzhvgzc hjjch hkcvg pcó |re qbz|hnvb fbeeh fc|vzcjrycgnb

ldb |r xrbeeg fbe ecqbeeg fbe zbffcvg pzgfgvvg b fbc lgnnb||c baabvvc |reeh

fc|gllrphycgnb. Rn |b`peclb b|b`pcg he zckrhzfg prú agz|b gaazczb xrheldb

rvceb |prnvg fc zcaeb||cgnb. @bvvch`g cn zbehycgnb eb qhzchycgnc fbee–cnfclb fc

pzgvbycgnb ngz`hvcqh fbc ehqgzhvgzc lhelgehvg fhee–GBLF $fbvvg B_E%

B`pegs`bnv _zgvblvcgn Ebkc|ehvcgn#% b eb qhzchycgnc zc|pbvvcqh`bnvb fbeeh

fc|gllrphycgnb b fbeeh xrgvh fbeeh pzgfrycgnb vgvheb hvvzcjrcvh he ehqgzg% nbe

pbzcgfg ldb qh fhe 833? he :??6. _zbnfbnfg vrvvc b qbnvrng c phb|c |rc xrhec ce

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zbkc|vzh h||bnyh fc |ckncaclhvcqcvï |vhvc|vclh |ch vzh eb qhzchycgnc fbee–B_E b eb

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\c qbfh he zckrhzfg rnh zblbnvb zh||bknh fc Jehnldhzf $:??6#. Laz. hnldb kecB`pes`bnv Grveggm| fbee–GBLF fbfclhvc hc zbkc`c fc pzgvbycgnb fbee–c`pcbkg $|pblcbeb bfcycgnc fbe 8333 b fbe :??6#. B– cnvbzb||hnvb ngvhzb ldb `bnvzb nbc lczlrcvc

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|reeh |vh`ph nhycgnheb. \c qbfh Jzhnlhllcg $:??3h#.



86

qhzchycgnc fbeeh fc|gllrphycgnb% |ch vzh eb `bfb|c`b qhzchycgnc fbee–B_E b ebqhzchycgnc fbeeh xrgvh fc pzgfgvvg |pbvvhnvb he ehqgzg. Vrvvhqch% nbe lh|g fbe

nb||g vzh B_E b fc|gllrphycgnb |c zbkc|vzh rn |bkng cnqbz|g zc|pbvvg h xrbeeg

lg`rnb`bnvb hqhnyhvg fheeh vbgzch blgng`clh fg`cnhnvb9 he zcfrz|c fbeehB_E% cnahvvc% eh fc|gllrphycgnb ngn |c zcfrlb `h he lgnvzhzcg hr`bnvh.

83\b pgc

|c lgnlbnvzh e–hvvbnycgnb |rc ngqb phb|c brzgpbc nbc xrhec eh zcfrycgnb fbeeh

B_E ä |vhvh phzvclgehz`bnvb hllbnvrhvh% |c zcebqh nrgqh`bnvb h||bnyh fc

lgzzbehycgnc |ckncaclhvcqb vzh B_E b fc|gllrphycgnb% b lg`rnxrb rn |bknggppg|vg h xrbeeg pzb|rnvg fheeh qrekhvh. @h |gpzhvvrvvg% |c zc|lgnvzh cn vhe lh|g

rnh lgzzbehycgnb ngn |geg pg|cvcqh `h hnldb |ckncaclhvcqh vzh B_E b xrgvh

fbeeh pzgfrycgnb |pbvvhnvb hc ehqgzhvgzc9 fgqb c ehqgzhvgzc pbzfgng eb vrvbeb

ngz`hvcqb b lgnvzhvvrhec% hnldb eh fc|vzcjrycgnb fbe zbffcvg |c `rgqb h egzg

|ahqgzb.:? Xrb|vg jzbqb b|bzlcycg gqqch`bnvb lg|vcvrc|lb |geg rnh pg||cjcebvzhllch fc ehqgzg% b lg`rnxrb cn jrgnh phzvb |c ec`cvh h zbpeclhzb zc|revhvc kcï

ngvc vzh kec hffbvvc hc ehqgzc. B||g vrvvhqch |b`jzh cnfclhzb ldb |b pzgpzcg |c

qgeb||bzg cnfhkhzb kec baabvvc `hlzgblgng`clc fbeeh aeb||cjcecvï fbe ehqgzg%

xrb|vc hnfzbjjbzg zclbzlhvc nbeeh lg`pzb||cgnb fbeeh xrgvh fbc zbffcvc |pbvvhnvc

hc ehqgzhvgzc pcó ldb cn rnh pzb|rnvh zcfrycgnb fbeeh fc|gllrphycgnb.

83C :8 phb|c lgn|cfbzhvc |gng9 Hr|vzhech% Hr|vzch% Jbekcg% Lhnhfh% \qcyybzh% Kbz`hnch%

Fhnc`hzlh% \phknh% Acnehnfch% Azhnlch% Zbkng Rncvg% Kzblch% Czehnfh% Cvhech%Kchppgnb% _hb|c Jh||c% Ngzqbkch% _gegnch% _gzvgkheeg% \qbych% \vhvc Rncvc. E–cnfclb fclgzzbehycgnb vzh eh Gqbzhee B_E qbz|cgn 8 $qhzchycgnb h||gervh `bfch vzh ce 833? b ce

:??<# b eg \vhnfhzfc|bf Rnb`pegs bnv Zhvb $qhzchycgnb h||gervh `bfch vzh ce 8338 bce :??6# ä phzc h -?%:3. Eh lgzzbehycgnb vzh eh `bfb|c`h B_E b eh Ehjgrz Cnlg`b\dhzb Zbhe REL Vgvhe Blgng`s $qhzchycgnb h||gervh `bfch vzh ce 8338 b ce :??6# ä fc?%8;. Ng|vzh behjgzhycgnb |r fhvc GBLF $:??;#% \vhvc|vcl|% dvvp9''|vhv|.gblf.gzk'{jg| .:?

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$:??;#% \vhvc|vcl|% dvvp9''|vhv|.gblf.gzk'{jg| .



82

1. \reeh baaclhlch fc rnh zbcvbzhvh fbaehycgnb |hehzcheb

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vzh`cvb fbaehycgnb. H fc|vhnyh fc rn fblbnncg fhee–hfgycgnb fbeeh `gnbvh

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pzc`hzch:<

b lgn rn vh||g fc lzb|lcvh fbe zbffcvg jbn he fc |gvvg fbeeh `bfch

brzgpbh.:6

Lcú ngng|vhnvb% ce phb|b zbkc|vzh lg`rnxrb rnh vbnfbnyh h pbzfbzb

xrgvb fc `bzlhvg cnvbznhycgnheb b hf hllr`rehzb fc|hqhnyc b|vbzc.:2

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Brancaccio Studi Economici Preliminare

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