Brais - Master Thesis TU Delft

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A transition towards a

sustainable energy

system in Galicia

Combining backcasting, sustainable

energy landscape design and energy

planning to achieve a sustainable

energy system by 2030

B. García Nodar

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A transition towards a sustainable energy

system in Galicia

Combining backcasting, sustainable energy landscape

design and energy planning to achieve a sustainable

energy system by 2030

By

B. García Nodar

Student number: 4412508

in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of

Master of Science in Sustainable Energy Technology

at the Delft University of Technology,

to be defended publicly on Monday August 22, 2016.

Supervisor: Prof. dr. ir. J. N. Quist

Thesis committee: Prof. dr. ir. J. N. Quist TU Delft

Ir. S. Broersma TU Delft

Prof. dr. K. Blok TU Delft

Prof. dr. ir. A.A. J. van Dobbelsteen TU Delft

An electronic version of this thesis is available at http://repository.tudelft.nl/.

http://repository.tudelft.nl/

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Summary

Globally, a growing effort towards sustainability has arisen from the increasing pressure on global resources. A transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies has been internationally identified as one of the main challenges to achieve global sustainability. The region of Galicia, in the North West of Spain, has certain defining characteristics which suggest it could lead by example. Firstly, its geographical situation and its complex orography create a significant potential for a wide range of renewable energy sources. Secondly, its location in a corner of the Iberian peninsula, with more than 1200 km of coast, reduces the degree of interconnectivity with other regions, bridging the gap between self-sufficiency projects currently being developed in islands (e.g. Texel, Samsø, El Hierro, Galápagos…) and the energy transition in larger and more interconnected areas such as central European countries. Furthermore, a rather disperse population is an interesting factor for the implementation of distributed energy systems such as solar panels. Finally, the importance of the environment for tourism and as one of the defining elements of its culture may increase the interest in these sustainable initiatives. The great investments made in wind energy during the late 1990’s and the decade of the 2000’s placed Galicia at the forefront of the implementation of this technology, being for many years the sixth largest wind energy producer in the world on its own. However, the effects of the 2007 economic crisis and the unfavourable energy policy measures taken afterwards have greatly slowed down the investments in renewable energy. For that reason, this master’s thesis aims at exploring the challenges and opportunities of retaking and strengthening the previous pathway towards sustainability in the Galician energy system. Such an energy transition requires academic support and a theoretical framework, but widespread future studies such as forecasting tend to perpetuate the drawbacks of the present situation into the future. Participatory backcasting is proposed as a normative approach to design desirable futures and broaden the scope of policy-makers and other stakeholders. By reinforcing Quist’s backcasting approach with sustainable energy landscape design and energy planning, a combined theoretical framework is created as a tool for designing and implementing a sustainable energy future for the region of Galicia, where the energy demand can be fulfilled by locally available renewable energy sources. The objective of this master’s thesis is summarized in its main research question:

How can a sustainable energy system be achieved in Galicia by 2030? To achieve this target, several steps have been followed. First, a strategic problem orientation stage has been performed by analysing the current energy system and its stakeholders (Section 3), and the potential of different renewable energy sources, energy efficiency measures and energy storage in the region (Section 4). Secondly, a desirable energy system for 2030 was defined and compared with the Business As Usual Scenario (Section 5). Thirdly, the backcasting analysis was divided in technical and spatial interventions (Section 6), on the one hand, and social, cultural and political interventions (Section 7), including the actions to be taken by different stakeholders and the follow-up efforts, on the other hand. The Desired Vision defined in this master’s thesis is based on goals such as a 50% cut in the energy demand from 2012 levels by 2030, self-sufficiency, meeting the demand with locally available renewable energy sources, or an extensive use of energy efficiency measures. The current energy system, as described in Section 3, is far away from these goals. In fact, 84% of the primary energy is imported, with virtually all of it coming from fossil fuels. Therefore,

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not only the objective of being self-sufficient is distant, but also less than 16% of the primary energy is currently produced from renewable energy sources. Additionally, the Business As Usual Scenario depicted in Section 5 highlights that the current trends and forecasts will only perpetuate these issues into the future. Firstly, 80% of the primary energy would still be imported in the BAU Scenario, and less than 20% of the total would be produced by renewable energy sources. Furthermore, the total energy demand by 2030 in the BAU Scenario would actually increase by 18% when compared with 2012, far from the desired 50% cut. The implementation of technical, spatial, social, cultural, and institutional changes required to achieve the Desired Vision by 2030 has been outlined. A widespread use of energy efficiency measures across all sectors, the implementation of renewable energy systems, the electrification of the road transportation sector, upgrades on the Galician energy infrastructure, the installation of additional support capacity, the implementation of cross-subsidies in the transportation sector, the establishment of quotas and technology-specific feed-in-tariffs assuring a floor price for renewable energy systems, the reduction in the cultural value of car ownership, achieving long-term social and institutional commitment, or the creation of a coordinating institution for the energy transition have all been identified as measures leading to the objective of achieving a sustainable energy system by 2030. In conclusion, achieving a sustainable energy system by 2030 is technically feasible, but a serious social and political commitment is required in the mid- to long-term. The renewable energy potentials are way larger than the required installed capacity for each technology, making self-sufficiency an achievable objective if the road transportation sector is powered by electricity. The 50% cut in the energy demand from 2012 levels, however, can only be achieved if significant social and institutional changes are made, according to the comparison between the BAU Scenario and the Desired Vision performed in Section 5.

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Table of Contents Summary ............................................................................................................................. 3

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 9

1.1. Problem exploration ........................................................................................ 10

1.2. Objective and research questions ................................................................. 11

1.3. Research approach ......................................................................................... 11

1.4. Scientific and social relevance ....................................................................... 12

1.5. Research boundaries ...................................................................................... 13

1.6. Definitions........................................................................................................ 13

1.7. Outline of the report ........................................................................................ 13

2. Theoretical framework .................................................................................................. 15

2.1. Backcasting ............................................................................................................ 15

2.1.1. Future studies .................................................................................................. 15

2.1.2. History of backcasting ..................................................................................... 17

2.2. Sustainable energy landscape design .................................................................. 19

2.3. Energy planning .................................................................................................. 23

2.3.1. Multi-level perspective of energy transitions............................................. 23

2.3.2. Energy policy: Supply side ......................................................................... 26

2.3.3. Demand Side Management ......................................................................... 27

2.4. Methodological framework ................................................................................. 29

2.4.1. Backcasting as a generic framework .............................................................. 29

2.4.2. Morphological analysis as a tool to envision future visions ......................... 29

2.4.3. Methodological framework of research .......................................................... 30

3. Current energy system ................................................................................................. 35

3.1. System .................................................................................................................... 35

3.1.1. Energy supply .................................................................................................. 35

3.1.2. Energy demand ................................................................................................ 38

3.2. Stakeholders ........................................................................................................... 40

3.2.1. Financers .......................................................................................................... 40

3.2.2. Research and knowledge institutes................................................................ 40

3.2.3. Companies........................................................................................................ 41

3.3.4. Users ................................................................................................................. 42

3.3.5. Interest groups ................................................................................................. 42

3.3.6. Media................................................................................................................. 43

3.3.7. Policy makers ................................................................................................... 43

3.3.8. Overview of stakeholders and their interests ................................................ 43

3.3.3. Social factors ................................................................................................... 47

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3.3.4. Technological factors ...................................................................................... 47

3.3.5. Environmental factors ..................................................................................... 47

3.3.5. Legal factors ..................................................................................................... 48

3.3.6. Summary .......................................................................................................... 48

4. Renewable energy potential ......................................................................................... 50

4.1. Biomass energy ...................................................................................................... 50

4.1.1. Biodiesel ........................................................................................................... 50

4.1.2. Bioethanol ............................................................................................................ 51

4.1.3. Wood .................................................................................................................... 52

4.1.4. Agricultural residues and manure ...................................................................... 53

4.2. Geothermal energy ................................................................................................. 54

4.3. Hydroelectric energy .............................................................................................. 56

4.4. Ocean energy .......................................................................................................... 57

4.4.1. Wave energy ..................................................................................................... 57

4.5. Solar energy ............................................................................................................ 59

4.5.1. Solar photovoltaic ............................................................................................ 60

4.5.2. Solar thermal .................................................................................................... 61

4.5.3. Solar thermoelectric ........................................................................................ 61

4.5.4. Solar energy potentials .................................................................................... 62

4.6. Wind energy ............................................................................................................ 63

4.6.1. Onshore wind energy ...................................................................................... 64

4.6.2. Offshore wind energy ...................................................................................... 64

4.7. Urban Solid Residues (USR) .................................................................................. 66

4.8. Energy efficiency .................................................................................................... 66

4.8.1. Appliances and equipment .............................................................................. 66

4.8.2. Lighting ............................................................................................................. 67

4.8.3. Sustainable building ........................................................................................ 67

4.8.4. Transport .......................................................................................................... 68

4.8.5. Industrial activities ........................................................................................... 69

4.9. Energy storage ....................................................................................................... 70

4.9.1. Fast response storage ..................................................................................... 70

4.9.2. Short-term electricity storage ......................................................................... 71

4.9.3. Seasonal electricity storage ............................................................................ 71

4.10. Overview of renewable energy potentials ........................................................... 72

4.10.1. Electricity generation potential ..................................................................... 72

4.10.2. Heat generation potential .............................................................................. 72

4.10.3. Fuel generation potential ............................................................................... 74

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5. Future visions ............................................................................................................... 75

5.1. Morphological analysis .......................................................................................... 75

5.2. Business As Usual Scenario ................................................................................. 76

5.2.1. Energy demand ................................................................................................ 78

5.2.2. Available energy............................................................................................... 80

5.2.3. Energy exports ................................................................................................. 82

5.2.4. Energy production and imports ...................................................................... 83

5.2.5. Summary BAU Scenario by 2030 .................................................................... 84

5.3. Desired vision ......................................................................................................... 87

5.3.1. Energy demand ................................................................................................ 90

6. Technical and spatial interventions ............................................................................. 95

6.1. Transportation ........................................................................................................ 95

6.2. Energy efficiency measures .................................................................................. 97

6.3. Renewable energy systems ................................................................................... 99

Wind energy ............................................................................................................. 100

Hydropower and minihydro .................................................................................... 102

Biomass and biogas ................................................................................................ 104

USR and other residues .......................................................................................... 106

Abandonment of fossil fuels ................................................................................... 107

Solar energy ............................................................................................................. 109

6.3. Summary: Supply, demand and potentials ......................................................... 110

6.4. Infrastructure ........................................................................................................ 114

6.5. Energy storage and other support capacity ....................................................... 115

Figure 6.32. Necessary support capacity according to the proposed implementation

timeline of the Desired Vision. ................................................................................... 116

7. Backcasting analysis .................................................................................................. 117

7.1. Transportation ...................................................................................................... 117

7.1.1. Necessary changes ........................................................................................ 117

7.1.2. How to achieve them and who should act .................................................... 118

7.2. Energy efficiency measures ................................................................................ 119

7.2.1. What ................................................................................................................ 119


7.3. Renewable energy systems ................................................................................. 121

7.3.1. What ................................................................................................................ 121


7.4. Infrastructure ........................................................................................................ 123

7.4.1. What ................................................................................................................ 123


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7.5. Energy storage and other support capacity ....................................................... 124

7.5.1. What ................................................................................................................ 124


7.6. Political, cultural, and social changes ................................................................ 125

7.6.1. What ................................................................................................................ 125


7.7. Transition pathway and timeline of implementation .......................................... 129

8. Conclusions, recommendations, and methodological reflection ............................ 133

8.1. Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 133

8.2. Recommendations ............................................................................................... 135

8.3. Methodological reflection and recommendations .............................................. 136

References ...................................................................................................................... 140

Books, articles, and reports ....................................................................................... 140

Online ........................................................................................................................... 146

Interviews ..................................................................................................................... 148

Appendix A. Energy balances ........................................................................................ 149

Appendix B. Morphological Analysis ............................................................................ 152

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1. Introduction Global warming and the depletion of natural resources are issues that need to be tackled quickly if disastrous effects on the climate are to be avoided, such as the 2°C rise in the average global temperature that is likely to be exceeded by 2100, as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013). A coordinated range of international mandates and incentives is required to face this technical, social and economic challenge. However, leading local and regional initiatives are highly valuable as they spur change in other regions by building experience in such a transition and by demonstrating its feasibility. The region of Galicia, in the North West of Spain, is of special interest for the implementation of renewable energies. Its geographical situation and its complex orography provide an unusual mix of both high wind and solar energy potentials. Galicia’s permanent and relatively large rivers have already made hydropower a vital part of its power mix. The potential for biomass energy is large as well, due to the abundant forests and the agricultural and livestock farming tradition. Low enthalpy geothermal energy is also being used to provide heating and cooling to a relatively small percentage of houses. The roughness of the Atlantic Ocean hitting its coast and the expertise of the Galician shipyards have also attracted attention towards the development of wave energy systems. Furthermore, its geographical location in a corner of the Iberian peninsula, a strongly defined cultural identity and its rather disperse population can be identified as additional factors to consider Galicia as an interesting subject to lead the transition towards a higher share of renewable energies in the mix. The Energy Institute of Galicia (Instituto Enerxético de Galicia, INEGA) is actively developing different ways of improving energy efficiency, reducing energy demand and stimulating the development of renewable energies in the region. The subsidies given to the development of wind energy in the late 1990’s and the decade of the 2000’s placed Galicia and Spain at the forefront of the implementation of this technology. However, policy measures taken during and after the financial crisis have slowed down the investments in renewable energy, as shown below.

Figure 1.1. Installed electricity generation capacity in Galicia 1976-2014 (based on data

from INEGA).

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400

600

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1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Inst

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apac

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[MW

]

Hydro Biomass CHP PV USR Minihydro Thermoelectric (coal) Thermoelectric (oil&gas) Wind

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In this master’s thesis, the potential of Galicia to spearhead the shift towards a sustainable energy future in Spain will be assessed by using a theoretical framework where participatory backcasting and sustainable energy landscape design are combined. The locally available renewable energy sources and the current energy system will be analysed. Subsequently, a vision of desired energy future will be created as a vital part of the backcasting analysis and compared to the Business As Usual scenario by 2030. A backcasting analysis is then expected to provide insight on the interventions required to achieve the Desired Vision. Finally, a comprehensive implementation pathway will be developed, proposing an implementation timeline for the identified technical, social, and political changes. In the following Sub-sections of this introduction, the research problem will be explained and defined. Its scientific and societal relevance will be assessed, and the objective of the project will be determined. The research question and the sub-questions related to it will be presented afterwards. Finally, a founded choice of the research methods and data collection issues will be explained, followed by an outline of the thesis.

1.1. Problem exploration

The implementation of renewable energy sources in Galicia has been particularly successful in the wind, hydroelectric and biomass energy sectors. Huge investments were made in hydroelectric power in the decades of the 1950’s, 60’s and 70’s, when 78% of the current hydroelectric capacity (3.3GW) was installed (INEGA, 2014). In the 1990’s and the first decade of the 21st century, subsidies and an extraordinary wind resource placed Galicia as one of the world leaders in wind-MW per capita. In 2012, wind, hydroelectric and biomass combined accounted for 91% of the primary energy obtained from local resources (INEGA, 2014). However, 82% of the primary energy is still being imported and virtually all of it consists of fossil fuels, as it can be seen in the figure below. The severe economic recession of 2008 resulted in a sharp reduction of subsidies and investments in renewable energy sources, as it was discussed in the introduction.

Figure 1.2. Primary energy consumption in Galicia 2012 (data from INEGA, 2014).

47.5%

12.2%

22.7%

17.6%

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Renewables

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With the current improvement in the economic atmosphere and the increasing international focus on fighting climate change and on the transition towards a sustainable energy system, regions like Galicia should take advantage of their privileged natural resources and lead the change. The policies in place in the next five years shape investments for the next ten years, which largely shape the regional and global energy picture out to 2050 (Shell, 2011). Consequently, this thesis aims to provide relevant stakeholders with a vision to continue with the steps initiated in the past and broaden their scope on the possibilities that the future might hold.

1.2. Objective and research questions

Developing a way to achieve the aforementioned vision of a sustainable future for Galicia is the fundamental unknown in this research. A methodological framework that supports the process of designing a desired future for the energy system of this region must be developed as well. Furthermore, the potential for renewable energy of Galicia needs to be determined if a sustainable future is to be built, and the stakeholders involved in the energy system must be identified in order to understand it and design a satisfactory implementation strategy. The main research question and the eight proposed sub-questions are presented below:

How can a sustainable energy system be achieved in Galicia in 2030?

a) How is the current energy system of Galicia? b) Who are the stakeholders involved? c) What is the potential of different renewable energy sources, energy efficiency

measures and energy storage in Galicia? d) How would a desirable energy system for this region look like in 2030? e) How would such a Desired Vision compare to a Business As Usual scenario? f) What kind of interventions are needed to achieve this desired future? g) How can these interventions be feasibly planned over time? h) What could different stakeholders do?

1.3. Research approach

The most popular approaches of future studies are meant to describe likely futures and possible futures. As a consequence, several examples can be found for these common means of tackling a similar problem: forecasting (e.g. Meadows et al, 1972) and scenario design (e.g. Shell, 2008), respectively. However, forecasting is based on dominant trends, which results in solutions which are unlikely to break them (Dreborg, 1996). Scenarios can unconsciously narrow the scope of the possible futures, finding an obstacle in our perception of what is possible or reasonable. Therefore, designing likely or possible futures offers a questionable solution to sustainability in general and to the energy transition that is required to achieve it in particular. To overcome these limitations, a third type of approach to future studies is introduced: backcasting. Backcasting is preferred when a major societal problem needs to be solved, and focuses on describing desirable futures and analysing the way they can be achieved. Building on Dreborg, backcasting is a particularly promising alternative to forecasting and scenario design in case of complex problems, a need for major change, when dominant trends are part of the problem, when externalities that cannot be satisfactorily solved in markets exist and for long-time horizons (Dreborg, 1996). The transition taking place in the first half of the XXI century, moving from a fossil fuel-based economy towards a sustainable energy system with large-scale

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implementation of renewable energies, fulfils all of the elements mentioned above. Accordingly, backcasting is indeed a firm candidate to help Galician policy-makers and other stakeholders broaden their scope and design desirable energy systems for the future of this region. By combining energy backcasting with sustainable energy landscape design, the desired visions of the future for Galicia can be designed based on the optimization of locally available renewable energy sources. By merging these two approaches, as previously done by Ricken (2012), a new theoretical framework can be created, with better tools to identify the renewable energy potentials and the spatial distribution of the proposed interventions. While the value of this approach is based on taking advantage of the singularities of each region, the sustainable energy landscape design approach has traditionally been applied to local initiatives, and consequently it will have to be adapted in this case, given the larger scale of the region. Additionally, this combined framework can be reinforced with energy planning. A more comprehensive understanding of the tools available to implement the technical, social, and political changes is expected to improve the proposed implementation and follow-up efforts. In spite of the limited attention paid to implementation in many examples where backcasting approaches have been used, developing a realistic and detailed implementation pathway is critical to achieve the desired future vision.

1.4. Scientific and social relevance

On the one hand, the scientific relevance of the research proposed here can be found in the integration of Backcasting, Sustainable Energy Landscape Design, and Energy Planning. By using backcasting as a generic theoretical framework and reinforcing it with the other two approaches, a comprehensive framework with the tools to successfully propose a way to achieve a sustainable energy system for Galicia by 2030 is achieved. On the other hand, the social relevance of this master’s thesis has its foundations in four pillars:

Developing a sustainable energy system is one of the most direct means of fighting global warming. This has the deep ethical connotation of guaranteeing a healthy and secure place to live for the generations to come.

Basing the energy system on locally available renewable energy sources eradicates the dependence on other countries in energy matters. Particularly, an energy system with a high reliance on oil implies having a supply which is highly dependent on countries in the Middle East. Frequent social unrest and conflicts in this region generate important fluctuations in the price of the imported oil, which in turn has a significantly negative effect on the economy.

Supporting sustainability improves the general image of Galicia and brings added-value to the tourism sector, which has made of nature its main appeal.

Being at the forefront of the transition of Spain towards a sustainable energy system would be a great opportunity to create jobs in the renewable energy industry.

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1.5. Research boundaries

The goal of achieving a sustainable energy system in Galicia by 2030 can be met in different ways. In order to better define the scope and constraints of the research developed in this master’s thesis, a set of research boundaries and conditions is defined:

It is considered that self-sufficiency is one of the characteristics of a sustainable energy system. Therefore, achieving self-sufficiency will be a key defining parameter of the Desired Vision. In other words, all the energy demand must be met with locally available energy sources.

It is also considered that a sustainable energy system can only be achieved if the energy supply is fully integrated by a portfolio of renewable energy systems. As a consequence, no fossil fuels will be used to produce energy in the Desired Vision.

Interviews with relevant stakeholders from academia, industry, professional associations, and energy cooperatives, will also be used to partly define the characteristics of the Desired Vision.

Air and maritime transport are excluded from the research. Since most of the routes followed by airplanes and ships are intrinsically international, European or even global regulations would be needed to successfully achieve a transition in these two transportation modes. As a consequence, they are left out of the boundaries of this research.

The Galician boundaries will be taken into account, including the coastal areas belonging to this region. Consequently, ocean and offshore wind energy will be eligible to compose the part of the energy mix.

1.6. Definitions

The terms “Scenario” and “Vision” are often used in an interchangeable fashion. In this master’s thesis, they have been used with the following defining characteristics:

The term “Vision” is frequently mentioned in this master’s thesis when referring to future situations partly or entirely defined by someone’s preferences or desires.

“Scenario”, on the other hand, has been associated with possible futures purely based on external data and forecasts.

As a consequence, the Desired Vision is one among many future visions built on the preferences of the author and the interviewed stakeholders, while the Business As Usual Scenario depicts a future which is purely defined by current and predictable trends, with no personal opinions of preferences involved.

1.7. Outline of the report

A generic backcasting approach will be combined and reinforced with sustainable energy landscape design and energy planning in Section 2, with the objective of defining a theoretical framework for this master’s thesis. The backcasting approach can be identified in the structure starting in Section 3, where a PESTEL analysis of the current energy system will be performed, outlining the starting point of the energy transition from the political, economic, social,

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technological, environmental, and legal perspectives. Section 4 will rely on sustainable energy landscape design tools in order to assess the renewable energy potentials of the region, serving as a continuation of this strategic problem orientation step. In Section 5, a Desired Vision of the Galician energy system and a Business as Usual Scenario will be defined and compared. The insights provided by this Section are expected to be used to perform a better backcasting analysis, which will be included in Section 6 following the PESTEL structure. A pathway to achieve the Desired Vision will be developed in Section 7, where both energy planning and sustainable energy landscape design are expected to help with the creation of a comprehensive implementation step. The proposed implementation timelines, the required technical and social interventions, the spatial distribution of these changes, the suggested supporting policies, and the role of different stakeholders in the transition towards a sustainable energy system will be presented in this Section. Finally, the conclusions and recommendations of this master’s thesis will be explored in Section 8.

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2. Theoretical framework Developing a deep understanding of the trends and possibilities related to the future of energy is crucial in order to avoid disastrous effects on the climate caused by global warming and the depletion of natural resources. However, understanding the energy future is not at all a trivial matter, given its complex and ambiguous nature. In this section, we take an academic approach to studying and designing visions for the future, with the ambition of coping with its inherent uncertainty and developing strategies to achieve a sustainable energy system.

2.1. Backcasting

In this sub-section, a reasoned choice for backcasting will be made after comparing three different types of future studies. Then, the main approaches of backcasting will be described and compared by using Quist’s comprehensive review of the history of backcasting (Quist, 2007). Finally, the advantages of merging different theories and frameworks in a generic backcasting approach will be highlighted.

2.1.1. Future studies

Energy plays a central role in the issues of climate change and the depletion of the resources. In order to understand the trends of the development of energy and the possibilities of transitioning towards a system based on renewable energy, a scientific approach must be used. Forecasting, exploratory scenarios and backcasting have been identified as the most popular approaches. Using forecasting, we can predict the most likely future based on observations of the past, e.g. McKinsey (2015). By definition, forecasting is based on dominant trends, which results in solutions that are unlikely to break them (Dreborg, 1996). Accordingly, forecasting the future of energy systems can be useful to warn stakeholders about the dangers of following the current trends, but it is questionable that this approach can provide solutions to the aforementioned problems. We can map uncertainty and complexity by using explorative scenarios, e.g. (Shell, 2008, 2013). However, scenarios can unconsciously narrow the scope of the possible futures, finding an obstacle in our perception of what is possible or reasonable. As a consequence, some disruptive technologies might be discarded from explorative scenarios because the authors see them as completely implausible. Systematically neglecting these possibilities may hinder the discovery of vital breakthroughs in the development of a sustainable energy future.

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Figure 2.1. Future studies (Robinson, 1990).

Backcasting is a planning method which starts by defining a desirable future vision or normative scenario and subsequently looking back at how this desirable future could be achieved (Quist & Vergragt, 2006). Building on Dreborg, backcasting is a particularly promising alternative to forecasting and scenario design in case of complex problems, a need for major change, when dominant trends are part of the problem, when externalities that cannot be satisfactorily solved in markets exist and for long-time horizons (Dreborg, 1996). The transition taking place in the first half of the 21st century, moving from a fossil fuel-based economy towards a sustainable energy system with large-scale implementation of renewable energies, fulfils all of the elements mentioned above. Accordingly, backcasting is indeed a firm candidate to help policy-makers and other stakeholders broaden their scope and design desirable energy systems for the future.

Figure 2.2. Backcasting: principle and key characteristics (Quist, 2013).

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2.1.2. History of backcasting

The comprehensive review of the history of backcasting presented by Jaco Quist in his PhD dissertation (Quist, 2007) has been taken as an outline for this section. Additionally, several references found in it, linked to core articles of energy backcasting, were also selected due to the inherent quality of their content.

Origins of backcasting: soft energy paths

Backcasting emerged as an adaptation of normative forecasting with a government-oriented perspective (Quist, 2007: 18). Its goal was to identify the policy measures that should be implemented in order to achieve the strategic objectives of a desired future. The origins of energy backcasting, or backwards-looking analysis, as it was then referred to, can be traced back to several publications focused on the creation of soft energy paths in the 1970s (Lovins, 1977a, 1977b), presenting backcasting as an alternative to traditional energy forecasting and planning. In successive decades, numerous studies on this field were written, and backcasting was applied to plan electricity supply and demand (Anderson, 2001) and to design other soft energy paths.

Backcasting for sustainability

“Futures under glass” (Robinson, 1990) marked the move towards the application of backcasting to sustainability, as most of the topics related to it fulfil the previously mentioned features: they are often complex problems in fields where there is a need for change, present trends are part of the problem, and deal with long-time horizons.

Figure 2.3. Outline of generic backcasting method. Adapted from Robinson (1990).

Robinson developed the generic six-step methodology shown in Figure 2.3, serving as a general outline for analyses oriented to environmental issues. More importantly for this master’s thesis, Robinson (1990) already warned in Futures under glass about the strong

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assumptions needed when defining the boundary conditions, in order to take into account the effect of global scenarios into national or regional backcasting analyses such as this one. Many European countries have done studies on water, mobility and mobility technologies. Åkerman and Höjer (2006) have published one among many Swedish studies on the future of mobility in this country. In this example, it can be seen how backcasting is not always necessarily used as one of the methodologies that will be described in section 5, but rather as an approach where a desired future is designed and the steps or policy measures required to reach it are described.

Participatory backcasting

The origin of participatory backcasting dates back to the 1990s in the Netherlands. The Dutch government has been applying this approach, linked with Constructive Technology Assessment (Dreborg, 1996), as part of the philosophy of programmes such as Sustainable Technology Development (STD) and Strategies towards the Sustainable Household (SusHouse) (Quist, 2007: 20). This shift towards participatory backcasting has also been seen in other parts of the world. The significant increase in the number of publications related to backcasting since the 2000’s, mainly originating from countries such as Sweden, the Netherlands, Japan, Canada and the United Kingdom, can be seen in Figure 2.4. Robinson et al have more recently published a paper where several examples of participatory backcasting were analysed: South Okanagan Land Use Modelling Project, Local Climate Change visioning project, Collaborative for interactive research with communities using information technologies for sustainability and MetroQuest (Robinson, 2011). In the same paper, the authors emphasise the spirit and limitations of participatory backcasting by stating the importance of a truly consultative process which includes a large sample of the community (Robinson, 2011).

Figure 2.4. Overview of number of articles published on the topic of backcasting (using the

Scopus online database).

Participatory backcasting has also been applied in the strategic planning for sustainability within companies in Sweden by applying ‘The Natural Step’ methodology (Holmberg & Robert, 2000). In this case, management and employees at all levels of the company are involved in the creation of a sustainable vision for the future. Quist developed a generic methodological framework for participatory backcasting in his PhD dissertation, consisting of five steps: STEP 1: Strategic problem orientation; STEP 2: Develop

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future vision; STEP 3: Backcasting analysis; STEP 4: Elaborate future alternative & define follow-up agenda; STEP 5: Embed results and agenda & stimulate follow-up. In Table 2.1, we made a selection of the approaches mentioned in the previous section, with the objective of making a comparison between them. The key assumptions, the methodology and some examples have been included for a better understanding of each approach.

Table 2.1. Comparison of five backcasting approaches; extended from Quist (2007: 25).

Robinson’s

‘The Natural Step’

Sustainable Technology

Development

SusHouse

Quist’s

Ke

y a

ss

um

pti

on

s Criteria for social and

environmental desirability are set externally to the analysis

Goal-oriented

Policy-oriented

Design-oriented

System oriented

Decreasing resource usage

Diminishing emission

Safeguarding

biodiversity and ecosystems

Fair and efficient usage of resources in line with

the equity principle

Sustainable future need fulfilment

Factor 20

Time horizon of 40-50 years

Co-evolution of technology &

society

Stakeholder participation

Focus on realising follow-up


Factor 20

Sustainable households in 2040

Social and technological

changes are needed

Achieving follow-up is relevant


Goal-oriented

Stakeholder learning

Achieving follow-up is

relevant

Me

tho

do

log

y (

ste

ps)

(1) Determine objectives

(2) Specify goals, constraints and targets & describe

present system and specify exogenous variables

(3) Describe present system

and its material flows

(4) Specify exogenous variables and inputs

(5) Undertake scenario

construction

(6) Undertake scenario impact analysis

(1) Define a framework and criteria for sustainability

(2) Describe the current situation in relation to

that framework

(3) Envisage a future sustainable situation

(4) Find strategies for

sustainability

(1) Strategic problem orientation

(2) Develop sustainable future vision

(3) Backcasting – set out

alternative solutions

(4) Explore options and identify bottlenecks

(5) Select among options & set

up an action plan

(6) Set up cooperation agreements

(7) Implement research agenda

(1) Problem orientation and function definition

(2) Stakeholder

analysis and involvement

(3) Stakeholder

creativity workshop

(4) Scenario construction

(5) Scenario assessments

(6) Stakeholder backcasting and

strategy workshop

(7) Realisation follow-up and implementation

(1) Strategic problem orientation

(2) Develop future

vision

(3) Backcasting analysis

(4) Elaborate future alternatives & define

follow-up agenda

(5) Embed results and agenda & stimulate

follow-up

Ex

am

ple

s o

f

me

tho

ds

Social impact analysis

Economic impact analysis

Environmental analysis

Scenario construction methodologies

System analysis & modelling

Material flow analysis and

modelling

Creativity techniques

Strategy development

Employee involvement

Employee training

Stakeholder analysis

Stakeholder workshops

Problem analysis

External communication

Technology analysis

Construction of future visions

System design & analysis

Stakeholder analysis

Function & system analysis

Backcasting analysis

Stakeholder workshops

Scenario construction

Scenario evaluation

Generating future visions

Putting visions and

options on the agenda of relevant arenas

Developing follow-up

agenda

Realising follow-up and stakeholder

cooperation

2.2. Sustainable energy landscape design

Sven Stremke (Wageningen Unviersity, The Netherlands) and Andy van den Dobbelsteen (TU Delft, The Netherlands) published in 2013 an extensive book on Sustainable Energy Landscapes. By exploring the potentials of spatial planning, planning in landscape architecture and design-oriented planning, these authors have developed a five-step approach to design long-term robust visions of sustainable energy landscapes. The resulting methodology is founded on a literature study of these three fields that leads to the comparison between tree different approaches:

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Strategic spatial planning: Four-Track Approach (Albrechts, 2004).

Landscape architecture: Design Framework by Steinitz (2002).

Design-oriented planning: Cyclic Scenario Approach (Dammers, 2005).

A transition towards a sustainable energy system or the adaptation to climate change require the modification of large scale infrastructures such as the energy system, which have a very high inertia. As a consequence, these fields have to tackle the problem of developing and implementing plans which require long time frames to become a reality. It can be seen in the table included below, made by Stremke and van den Dobbelsteen, that similarities can be found in the way authors from these different fields. The first step can be commonly classified as an analysis or evaluation of the current conditions. It is followed by the identification of the short-term developments that will take place given the current conditions. The long-term futures, those that can be steered by the action of these planning strategies, are then identified as possibilities in the third step of these methodologies. Subsequently, the long-term visions – or the “change(s) caused by implementable design” – are described, followed by the implementation and recommendations step. Table 2.2. Comparison of the Cyclic Scenario Approach, the Four-Track Approach, and the

Design Framework (Stremke & Dobbelsteen, 2013).

Cyclic Scenario Approach

Four-Track Approach Design Framework

Init

ial

ste

p

Basic analysis Analyse present situation, trends and policies Identify focal issues

Analysis Analyse main processes that shape environment Agenda setting

Representation Analyse conditions Process Study relationships Evaluation Identify dysfunctions

Fir

st

mo

de o

f

ch

an

ge

Analysis of current trends is part of analysis

No explicit reference to current projected trends

Change caused by current projected trends Identify trends

Seco

nd

mo

de o

f

ch

an

ge

External scenarios Compose scenarios to identify possible futures

No explicit reference to context scenarios and critical uncertainties

No explicit reference to context scenarios and critical uncertainties

Th

ird

mo

de o

f

ch

an

ge

Policy scenarios Explore alternative policy strategies

Long-term vision Represent values and meanings for the future

Change caused by implementable design Describe interventions

Fin

al ste

p

Recommendations and knowledge questions Support development of policy strategies Master plan with short-term actions Contingency plan with long-term actions

Short- and long-term actions Short-term actions to solve present problems Long-term actions to achieve desired future Budged and strategy for implementation Creation of commitment

Impact Estimate impact of alternative interventions Decision Support decision-making process

Combining these building blocks found in strategic spatial planning, landscape architecture and design-oriented planning with more general knowledge taken from scenario studies and planning paradigms, Stremke et al (2012) published an alternative approach included in their methodological framework for long-term regional design.

21

This methodological framework was developed to meet a set of prerequisites which were identified in the literature study mentioned above. As mentioned by Stremke et al. (2012), “any alternative approach to long-term regional planning and design” must:

Be flexible, so it can be adapted to local conditions

Aid the development of solutions specific to the context and the area

Promote active stakeholder participation in the development of the long-term visions

Be transparent and explicit about rational and normative steps

Take into account current projected trends

Consider critical uncertainties

Create several alternative proposals

Allow the use of existing scenario studies

Help to identify innovative and robust interventions

Enable the assessment of the robustness of interventions

Avoid narrowing the scope of future options

As a result of the previous analysis, a methodological framework for integrated visions called Five-step approach was developed by Stremke et al (2012) and applied for the development of sustainable energy landscapes in the Dutch municipality of Margraten in the second part of the publication (2012a).

Figure 2.5. Methodological framework of the five-step approach (Stremke et al, 2012).

Figure 2.5 contains the representation of the sequence of five steps used in this envisioning process, which should be iterated at least twice. According to Stremke et al (2012), “during the first cycle, the context and scope of the study are defined, maps and data are gathered, and stakeholders and decision-makers are invited to participate in the study. During the second cycle, the actual visions are developed”. The authors also make emphasis on the iterative nature of the entire process, which implies that the five steps are not linear, but returning to previous steps might be necessary to answer all questions completely. Adapting the five-step approach for the EU project City-zen, Broersma & Fremouw (Work in progress) are currently developing a multi-layered approach for urban energy master plans which consists six steps:

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Step 1: Map the present and near future Step 2: Select potentially suitable measures Step 3: Determine scenarios Step 4: Create a vision Step 5: Define the roadmap Step 6: Re-calibrate and adjust

Figure 2.6. City-zen approach framework (work in progress…).

Energy Potential Mapping (EPM) is a related method which has been used for the visualisation of energy potentials and demands of areas ranging from neighbourhoods to regions. As part of the effort developed by TU Delft to work towards a generic model to the calculate energy potentials, Broersma (2013) proposed a formal methodology to achieve the exergetic optimisation of the built environment by using EPM and Heat Maps (HM). Energy Potential Mapping can be integrated in the aforementioned approaches as an important element describing sources (renewable energy potentials, infrastructure…) and sinks (residential demand, transport demand…) of the area under study. Subsequently, both short-term and long-term visions can be developed based on the information gathered, as depicted in Figure 2.7.

Figure 2.7. Method of Energy Potential Mapping (Broersma & Fremouw, 2014).

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2.3. Energy planning Energy planning refers to the development of long-range policies to help guide the future of energy systems. While the backcasting approach is useful in identifying the modifications required to reach a desired future (Olsson et al, 2015), prevailing policy processes can greatly differ from the pathway suggested by backcasting, obstructing the process of achieving such a vision. Nilsson et al. (2011), Olsson et al (2015) and Robinson (1990) established the importance of connecting backcasting to the policy process in order to improve its implementation and usefulness. Consequently, this sub-section will try to provide the necessary theoretical knowledge on energy policy and planning required to fill the implementation gap. Energy policies have played a major role in shaping our current landscape (Narbel, 2014). Intervention in the energy market is justified when perceived market failures lead to situations that are not found socially optimal by governments (Narbel, 2014). Fighting climate change, energy diversification, energy security and industry creation are four of the most common goals of energy policies. However, transformations in energy systems are long-term change processes in technology, the economy, institutions, ecology, culture, behaviour, and belief systems (Patwardhan, 2012), which means that decisions must be taken well in advance:. the policies in place in the next five years shape investments for the next ten years, which largely shape the global energy picture out to 2030 and 2050 (Shell, 2011). An increasing understanding of how energy transitions take place has opened the possibility to actively influence or manage them (Patwardhan, 2012). Energy planning, multi-level perspective, demand-side management, transition management, strategic niche management (SNM), functions of innovation systems (FIS) and other theories and frameworks can be used to analyse and manage the transition from an energy system based on fossil fuels to a sustainable energy system where renewable energies play a central role. First, a theoretical explanation of how such a transition takes place will be achieved by applying Geel’s dynamic view of the multi-level perspective (MLP) to the energy transition. The pathways that characterize and represent transitions will be also studied. Secondly, the need for an intervention in the energy market will be justified by showing the existence of a market failure, where externalities are not currently being taken into account in the pricing of energy, followed by the most common policy instruments used to support the implementation of renewable energy sources will be presented. Finally, the complete vision of the energy system will be covered by including Demand-Side Management strategies.

2.3.1. Multi-level perspective of energy transitions

By combining insights from the sociology of technology and evolutionary theory, the “multi-level perspective” (Geels, 2002; Rip & Kemp, 1998) is an approach to understanding transitions which conceptualizes transformative changes as the product of interrelated processes at three different levels (Patwardhan, 2012). As shown in Figure 2.8, this perspective distinguishes between the micro-level of niches (e.g. wind energy, photovoltaic energy, biomass energy…), the meso-level of socio-technical regimes (e.g. the electricity system, transportation fuels, the gas market…), and the macro-level of landscapes (public opinion, climate change, EU regulation, geopolitical relations…).

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Figure 2.8. Multi-level perspective (Geels, 2002).

The dynamic view of the multi-level perspective, explained in the figure below, is a powerful visualization on how niche innovations and experiments can break through when there is sufficient pressure on a given socio-technical regime. If these innovations become powerful and lead to major changes in technology, market or user practices, they can eventually become part of the landscape (Geels, 2002).

Figure 2.9. A dynamic representation of the multi-level perspective on transitions (Geels,

2002).

If there is no external pressure from the landscape, radical innovations will be less likely to break through (Geels & Schot, 2007). Consequently, a dynamic stability will be achieved in the energy regimes, where market competition and innovation still take place. However, modifications and innovations will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary, leading to regimes which move in predictable trajectories. A lock-in situation is therefore established. Geels and Geels and Schot (2007) developed four transition pathways based on the reinforcing or disruptive relationships of the regime with niche-innovations and landscape developments. When understanding the energy transition, either one of these pathways or a combination of several pathways can be used to explain the underlying forces and dynamics:

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Transformation path: External pressure coming from the landscape level, social movements and public opinion leads to a gradual adjustment and reorientation of existing regimes. This change in primarily enacted by regime actors.

De-alignment and re-alignment path: The existing regimes are eroded and destabilized by major landscape changes. After an initial period of widespread experimentation where multiple niche innovations coexist, one of then eventually becomes dominant and leads to a major restructuring of the system (new actors, principles, beliefs, and practices).

Technological substitution: Landscape pressures open windows of opportunity for those niche innovations which have the sufficient momentum and stability. These newcomers compete with incumbent regime actors, eventually replacing them.

Reconfiguration pathway: In this pathway, niche innovations are further developed when regimes face landscape pressures. Instead of competing with existing regime actors, the regime adopts certain niche innovations into the system as add-ons or component substitutions (Patwardhan, 2012). This leads to a gradual reconfiguration of the regime’s basic architecture, being a more radical transition than that of the transformation pathway.

The policy environment, as part of the landscape, is one of the key factors influencing the scaling up of niches to larger regimes. By definition, niches provide a protective environment where they have space to develop and improve while they are less susceptible to market pressures (Patwardhan, 2012). Transition management puts this evolutionary view of change within an iterative, four-stage governance framework (Smith & Stirling, 2010):

1. Problem structuring and goal envisioning 2. Transformation pathways and experiments 3. Learning and adaptation 4. Institutionalization

Certain analogies can be found between the aforementioned steps and Quist’s five-step backcasting approach. Additionally, the similarities between a transition management approach and backcasting are clear: they tackle the energy transition’s wicked problem by using sustainability as a normative concept, taking a system approach with a focus on vision, actors, learning and change. This master’s thesis will use backcasting as its pivotal framework due to the flexibility and diversity that will be further discussed in section 2.4.1. However, including energy planning elements based on transition management and other theories can improve and strengthen the final recommendations. Therefore, the common policy instruments used to support renewable energy will be explained after understanding the need for a market intervention.

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2.3.2. Energy policy: Supply side

Need for market intervention and externalities

Paraphrasing the first paragraph of this sub-section, intervention in the energy market is justified when perceived market failures lead to situations that are not found socially optimal by governments (Narbel, 2014). Many renewable energy technologies are still in its development phase and they have not achieved grid-parity with conventional technologies yet. In a deregulated energy market, investors would readily discard developing technologies, making it harder for them to achieve maturity. Therefore, niches with market distortions are required to support expensive forms of renewable energy in a deregulated energy market. Since technological innovation or a substantial increase in fuel prices is unlikely in the short term, favourable policy instruments have an important role to play in helping costly technologies reach grid-parity with conventional technologies (Narbel, 2014). Furthermore, a direct comparison of the cost of the energy produced by renewable and conventional energy systems will inevitably lead to distorted conclusions. The consumption or production of energy results in a cost to another entity which is not compensated for. For example, the contribution to global warming and the impact on health caused when burning coal is not accounted for in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) generated from coal. In other words, the direct cost of energy leaves aside the concept of externality. The cost of these externalities is paid by current and future generations via their health, a warmer climate, and decreased biodiversity and agricultural output (Narbel, 2014).

Common policy instruments used to support the energy transition

In practice, policy makers use two different approaches to support the energy transition: discouraging the use of polluting energy sources, and promoting the use of renewable energy sources. Under the first category, governments can tax carbon emissions to fight global warming by reducing CO2 emissions. The European emission trading scheme (EU-ETS) is a good example of internalizing the externalities using a “cap and trade” system: the acceptable level of externality is chosen (cap) and the market regulates the price which is necessary to ensure that this cap is not crossed (trade) Additionally, there are three common approaches to supporting the use of renewable energy technologies. The tendering process and Tradable Green Certificates are quantity-based instruments, while Feed-in Tariffs are price-based instruments (Narbel, 2014) :

Tendering process: The government sets a quantity of energy capacity to be built. The energy developers are selected in a bidding process, theoretically assuring that the cheapest energy projects will be realized first.

Feed-in Tariffs (FiT): Feed-in tariffs are price-based policy instruments which guarantee a fixed price for each unit of energy (€/MWh) produced over a set period of time. Different FiTs might be used are often used to reflect the specific degree of maturity and costs of each technology. However, the cost of a project is not known in advance with certainty. Consequently, the marginal cost curve of a technology is usually overestimated or underestimated by policy makers setting FiTs, leading to very

27

high costs for countries in the first case and to little capacity being built in countries that underestimated the marginal cost.

Tradable Green Certificates (TGF): Under this system, it is mandatory for a producer to generate part of its energy from renewable sources. Certificates will be awarded for each MWh of green electricity produced. These certificates can be bought and sold in a secondary market, ruled by supply and demand, which will determine its price and drive additional investment when needed. The cost of this policy instrument is uncertain and it is completely covered by the producers – and eventually by the consumers – of electricity.

On the one hand, the deployment of renewable energy systems will be slower under a TGC system when compared to a FiT system due to the uncertainty of future certificate prices. Furthermore, while a TGC system is efficient and results is more GHG abatement, only the cheapest energy source is usually supported. This can be seen as a disadvantage, since less mature technologies are not benefitted from this scheme. On the other hand, price fluctuations of green certificates derived from the rules of supply and demand serve as a trigger to accelerate or slow down investment in new capacity. In opposition to this self-regulation, we have seen that the efficiency of FiT systems is highly dependent on the accuracy of the estimated marginal cost curve (Narbel, 2014). In conclusion, governments can decide which combination of these policies should be implemented to support the transition towards a sustainable energy system. It must be noted that an energy transition involves parallel policy processes in different sectors (e.g. energy, transportation, urban planning, etc.). To avoid creating contradictory policies, it is essential to coordinate the different policy sectors (Geerlings and Stead, 2013; Söderberg, 2011), usually referred as policy integration (Olsson et al, 2015). The most appropriate support scheme for Galicia to achieve the future visions designed in the backcasting step of this master’s thesis will be selected in section 7.

2.3.3. Demand Side Management

The term Demand Side Management (DSM) encompasses a set of strategies aiming at “improving power energy utilization efficiency, optimizing resource allocation, protecting the environment, and accomplishing power consumption management activities carried out with power service at the lowest cost” (Hu et al, 2013) by leading energy users to use it in a more rational fashion. DSM plays a vital role in the transition towards a sustainable energy system, as it reduces the need for extra capacity or unnecessary energy use. Energy Efficiency and Load Management are two of the main tools encompassed by DSM to achieve the effective utilization of energy, mainly used in the electricity sector (Bhattacharyya, 2011). The objective of Energy Efficiency measures is to provide the same service while decreasing its energy demand. This can be achieved by either modifying the behaviour of energy users or, more often, by implementing technical measures that improve the overall efficiency of products and services. There are several tools to increase energy efficiency (IEA, 2015): Both in the residential and the services sector, energy labelling of buildings and appliances is frequently used, with efficient ones being more attractive for prospective buyers or renters. The retrofit of existing buildings by improving their thermal isolation can also lead to significant decreases in the heating and cooling demand in these sectors. Furthermore, promoting zero-

28

energy design in new residential buildings assures that the new stock will not repeat the energetically inefficient designs of the past. Meanwhile, recycling is often promoted in the industrial sector as a way of saving raw materials, costs, and energy. The implementation of minimum standards of energy efficiency can lead to significant energy savings, especially in energy-intensive industries such as aluminium production. Furthermore, energy management and benchmarking is starting to be the norm in some countries, where energy audits are required by law in order to reduce the overall energy demand in industry. Finally, fuel efficiency standards for vehicles and subsidies for the most efficient ones, such as the Spanish “Plan PIVE”, are also being used in combination in order to promote the use of less energy-intensive and less polluting vehicles. It is important to note that the reductions achieved by energy efficiency measures often come with an associated rebound effect or take-back effect. For example, more efficient appliances may encourage buying larger ones (GEA, 2012); and more efficient cars may encourage driving more. However, the rebound effect of the changes proposed in this master’s thesis will not be considered, as it is hard to predict and depends on the social consciousness towards the environment and sustainability. Load Management can improve the efficiency of the power utilization by adjusting and controlling the load. Peak shaving, shown in Figure 2.10, can achieve a significant reduction in costs by eliminating the need for the extra capacity in power generation and transport caused by peak demand requirements. This can be achieved by mechanisms aimed at changing the consumer behaviour, such as pricing incentives, or by using technical measures such as frequency sensitive relays.

Figure 2.10. Graphic representation of peak shaving (Yeung, 2007).

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2.4. Methodological framework

Based on the previous sub-sections 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3, common steps and complementary objectives can be found when comparing backcasting, SLD and energy planning. Subsequently, these synergies will be further analysed in order to create a comprehensive methodological framework aimed at creating desirable future energy visions based on the actual potential of a certain area and at providing sound policy recommendations to achieve them.

2.4.1. Backcasting as a generic framework

In order to build trustworthy scientific knowledge regarding the energy transition, academics must design frameworks with a relatively unchanging set of core elements - a stable backbone. At the same time, they should also create looser, more dynamic elements that can be adapted quickly to the specific requirements of every challenge. With the five steps of the methodological framework described by Quist, his intention was “to cover the full range of participatory backcasting approaches found in the literature” (Quist, 2007: 28). Consequently, it can be used as the backbone to create strong visions of a future sustainable energy system; a standard framework which can endure over a reasonable period and be generic enough as to adapt to different regions and needs. At the same time, more dynamic elements can be implemented in this methodology by combining backcasting with other relevant techniques and theories, allowing the framework to be adapted quickly to new challenges and situations. All in all, integrating different theories and approaches in Quist’s generic approach to backcasting improves the latter by adding a scientifically sound basis to the elaboration of the desired future visions and the proposal of recommendations to achieve them.

2.4.2. Morphological analysis as a tool to envision future visions

In order to provide a more systematic approach to the process of envisioning future scenarios, the General Morphological Analysis (GMA) method is introduced. GMA was developed by the Swiss astro-physicist Fritz Zwicky for structuring and investigating “the total set of relationships contained in multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable, problem complexes” (Zwicky, 1969). For these types of problems, such as policy analysis and future studies, causality-based methods such as simulation and quantitative methods are rather intricate and relatively useless. In contrast to causal modelling, GMA relies on judgmental processes and internal consistency in order to identify and investigate the total set of possible configurations contained in a given problem complex (Ritchey, 1998). The first step of a GMA consists of creating a morphological box – or “Zwicky box”- where the parameters of the problem complex, and the range of values associated with each parameter, are defined by using a morphological field format (Ritchey, 1998). The parameters –or dimensions- of the problem complex represent the relevant issues involved, with no formal constraints to mixing and comparing political, technical, financial, and other types of issues. The second step in the General Morphological Analysis process is the Cross-Consistency Assessment (CCA). The objective of this step is to reduce the total set of possible configurations in the aforementioned problem space to a smaller set of internally consistent configurations representing a solution space. The CCA is based on the existence of numerous pairs of conditions (or values) in the Zwicky box which are mutually incompatible. Therefore,

30

any configuration containing a pair of these mutually incompatible conditions will also be internally inconsistent (Ritchey, 1998). Citing Tom Ritchey, “there are three types of inconsistencies involved here: purely logical contradictions (i.e. those based on the nature of the concepts involved); empirical inconsistencies (i.e. relationships judged to be highly improbable or implausible on empirical grounds), and normative constraints (e.g. relationships ruled out on e.g. ethical or political grounds)” (Ritchey, 1998).

2.4.3. Methodological framework of research

An outline of a toolbox for backcasting has been proposed in the literature (Quist, 2007), consisting of participatory tools and methods, design tools and methods, analytical tools and methods, and tools and methods for management, coordination and communication. However, by complementing backcasting with Sustainable Energy Landscape Design (SLD) and with Energy Planning (EP), we can take advantage of pre-developed methods and tools, achieving a comprehensive theoretical framework for the energy transition towards renewable energies. Firstly, SLD provides a systematic approach to mapping the renewable energy potentials of a certain region and to studying its current energy system, which is vital for Step 1: Strategic problem orientation. Furthermore, it overlaps with backcasting in the generation of future visions. Secondly, EP provides a solid foundation for the recommendations and follow-up activities included in Step 4: Elaborate future alternatives & define follow-up agenda, and Step 5: Embed results and agenda & stimulate follow-up. The resulting methodological framework to design the transition towards a sustainable energy system in Galicia be explained below by using Quist’s five-step backcasting methodological framework as its backbone. Table Y will provide a summary of the steps where SLD and EP have been particularly useful by providing additional tools and methods for each step.

Figure 2.11. Influence of the different theories in the theoretical framework of this master’s

thesis.

Step 1: Strategic problem orientation This step is shared by most backcasting approaches. Defining the present conditions can also be found in the first step of Stremke’s five-step framework (Stremke & Koh, 2012), and the analysis of the renewable energy potentials can be performed by means of Energy Potential Mapping and other SLD tools. Therefore, the methodological gap found in traditional backcasting approaches to reach an in-depth understanding of the current energy system and the renewable energy potentials can be filled by Sustainable Energy Landscape Design methodologies. All in all, four key issues can be tackled by combining these two methodological frameworks:

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Defining goals, targets, and constraints.

Analysing the current energy system.

Identifying the key stakeholders and their interests.

Assessing the renewable energy potentials in the region.

Exogenous variables, goals, constraints and target of the research are defined in this first step. A broad analysis of the current energy system and its stakeholders is performed, as understanding how the current energy system works is the starting point for the desired energy transition. An assessment of the renewable energy potentials of the region, including energy saving and energy storage potentials, will set the technical limits for any future intervention. For instance, if energy self-sufficiency is part of the future visions designed in the following step, studying the renewable potential of Galicia is essential to assess its feasibility. Step 2: Develop future visions This step of the backcasting approach traditionally involves designing different conceptions of a desirable future. In this case, such visions should be based on the transition towards a renewable energy system in Galicia. The development of integrated visions is also one of the key features of Sustainable Landscape Design’s five-step framework (Stremke, 2012). Most applications of the backcasting or the SLD approaches found in the literature develop these desirable visions and provide insight on its implementation, but they fail to provide a benchmark on how the future would look like if those changes wouldn’t take place. In other words, the desired future visions are compared between them and with the current situation, but the expected developments are often neglected, providing less support to the subsequent recommendations on the necessary changes to achieve such desired visions. In order to tackle this gap in the methodology, this master’s thesis will take a slightly different approach. First, a Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario will be developed by combining current Galician, European, and global trends in the economic activity and the energy sector. Then, a desired vision will be designed following the conventional backcasting approach. Step 3: Backcasting analysis In this backcasting step, it is essential to understand what, who and how needs to be changed or reinforced in other to transform the current energy system into the desired one, as described in the previous step. Consequently, the necessary changes will be pointed out (what), the key stakeholders will be defined (who), and the main drivers and barriers will be identified (how). As it was already explained in the previous step, the comparison between the BAU Scenario and the desired vision is expected to provide additional insight on the areas where major change is required. For instance, while some sectors or stakeholders might reach the targets by following their current path, others might need major incentive schemes and social changes. Consequently, this should easily highlight the areas where a more aggressive approach needs to be adopted. Step 4: Elaborate future alternatives & define follow-up agenda Once it is clear that the designed scenarios comply with the sustainability criteria, the interventions needed to achieve them will be determined, and pathways will be provided. The energy planning literature reviewed in the previous sub-section will be highly valuable for this step.

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Policies will be selected to support this implementation step from both the energy supply and energy demand sides. This will be based on the selection of energy policy measures presented in the previous sub-section, including Demand-Side Management (DSM) measures and economic incentives for the deployment of renewable energy systems. As it has already been pointed out, the comparison between the BAU Scenario and the desired vision is expected to provide insight in this step by highlighting the areas where the energy policies should be focused. Step 5: Embed results and agenda & stimulate follow-up The importance of serious follow-up efforts has often been underestimated in the past, leading to unsatisfactory results. This step will be reinforced by energy planning and a deeper understanding of the dynamics behind energy transitions. Follow-up proposals such as programmed stakeholder meetings in sufficient milestones of the transition should be defined. Finally, the proposed theoretical framework is aimed at providing a scientifically sound answer to the main research question and the eight sub-questions, as presented in the introduction: How can a sustainable energy supply be achieved by Galicia in 2030?

a) How is the current energy system of Galicia?

b) Who are the stakeholders involved?

c) What is the potential of different renewable energy sources, energy savings and

energy storage in Galicia?

d) What are the developments concerning sustainability in the energy system?

e) How would the Galician energy system look like in 2030 in a Business As Usual

pathway?

f) How would a desirable energy system for this region look like in 2030?

g) What kind of interventions are needed to achieve this desired future?

h) How can these interventions be feasibly planned over time?

i) What could different stakeholders do?

Novelty of this theoretical framework While the integration of Backcasting and Sustainable Landscape Design methodologies has already been successfully achieved by Dennis Ricken (2012), this master’s thesis aims at continuing its research by reinforcing the implementation step with energy planning and by providing several new additions:

First, the advantages and limitations of using Sustainable Landscape Design for

relatively extensive regions will be assessed. While Ricken’s efforts were focused on

the small Dutch island of Texel, the area of Galicia is over 60 times larger.

Secondly, the development of a Business As Usual Scenario and its comparison with

the Desired Vision are included. The prospective advantages of this addition include a

better assessment of the feasibility of the Desired Vision, and enhanced insight on the

sectors and stakeholders where major change is required, allowing for a more efficient

use of resources and policies.

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The addition of a General Morphological Analysis provides a more systematic

approach to envisioning energy futures, and facilitates the future development of

different desirable futures consistent with the logic of this master’s thesis

Additionally, energy planning provides a sound theoretical framework to understand

the underlying principles behind energy transitions. Recognizing and influencing the

current transition pathway is expected to have a significant impact in steps 4 (Elaborate

future alternatives & define follow-up agenda) and 5 (Embed results and agenda &

stimulate follow-up) of the backcasting approach.

Finally, the inclusion of energy policy facilitates an overview of all the major policy

instruments available to stimulate the implementation of renewable energy systems,

discourage the use of fossil fuels, incentivize energy users to adopt Demand-Side

Management measures, and spark change in social behaviour.

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Table 2.3. Description of the tasks that compromise the methodological framework of this

research and the complementarities between backcasting, SLD and EP (extended from

Ricken (2012) and Quist (2013)).

Step Backcasting methods/tools Description SLD EP

1 S

trate

gic

pro

ble

m

ori

en

tati

on

Setting demands and basic assumptions

Defining goals, constraints and targets of research ×

System and regime analysis

Analysing the characteristics of the energy system in the region ×

Identifying the renewable energy potentials in the region ×

Stakeholder analysis Identifying the stakeholders that are involved and their interests and influences regarding the vision

×

2 D

ev

elo

p f

utu

re v

isio

n

Idea articulation and elaboration

Construction of BAU Scenario and a Desired Vision by merging a systematic approach, input from different stakeholders, and creativity via a General Morphological Analysis (GMA)

×

Generation of multiple perspectives ×

Creative techniques ×

Scenario elaboration Turning vision into quantified scenario ×

3 B

ac

kca

sti

ng

an

aly

sis

What-Who-How analysis

Defining changes that are necessary for achieving the desirable futures

Defining key stakeholders and their required actions

Identifying and analysing the main drivers and barriers

4 E

lab

ora

te f

utu

re

alt

ern

ati

ves

…

Generation of follow-agenda Define the interventions needed to achieve the desired visions × ×

Transition pathway Defining a possible pathway to achieve the constructed desirable vision × ×

5 E

mb

ed

re

su

lts

& s

tim

ula

te

follo

w-u

p

Construct follow-up agenda and plan the interventions over time

Dissemination of results and policy recommendations ×

Generation of follow-up proposals ×

Stakeholder meetings ×

35

3. Current energy system An overview of the current energy system in Galicia will be presented in this section structured around three areas. Firstly, the technical aspects of the energy supply and demand systems will be presented. Then, the actors associated with the energy system and their interests in the energy transition will be assessed. Finally, the factors affecting the Galician energy system will be structured as a PESTEL analysis: Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal factors will be analysed from the perspective of the energy system.

3.1. System

In this Sub-section, both the energy supply and the energy demand will be analysed in order to design future visions which are coherent with the actual energy needs of the region. Most of the figures contained in this section have been elaborated from several publications of the Energy Institute of Galicia (Instituto Enerxético de Galicia, INEGA), particularly from one of their publications: the Galician Energy Balance 2012 (Balance Enerxético de Galicia 2012). Any scenario or vision described for 2030 will take these characteristics as its starting point.

3.1.1. Energy supply

The region of Galicia is currently far from self-sufficient. As it can be seen in the figure below, only 16% of the primary energy needs of this region are currently being fulfilled by local energy sources. Meanwhile, imports fulfil the rest -443 PJ, or 84%- of the primary energy needs.

Figure 3.1. Primary energy in Galicia in 2012 by origin.

Due to the lack of oil and natural gas reserves in the area, most of the current local energy sources being used are renewable. While two of the thermoelectric power stations used Galician brown lignite in the past, it was substituted by imported coal and natural gas due to the high levels of pollution caused by the local coal (Vázquez Sola, 2007). As it can be seen in Figure 3.2, biomass (39%), wind energy (34%) and hydropower (17%) were the main local sources of primary energy in 2012.

84%

16%

Imported

Galicia

36

Figure 3.2. Local primary energy production in Galicia in 2012 by source.

With regard to the 84% of the primary energy imported from outside of Galicia, Figure 3.3 shows that virtually all of it (99%) comes from fossil fuels. The remaining 1% are mainly biofuels which are blended with transportation fuels in order to comply with European directives regarding their progressive implementation in this sector. The presence of a Repsol’s oil refinery near the city of A Coruña explains the high proportion of imported oil crude. Oil crude accounted for 39% of the imported primary energy in 2012, or 173 PJ. This unrefined petroleum product is then used to generate a variety of products such as kerosene, diesel oil, gasoline or butane.

Figure 3.3. Imported primary energy production in Galicia in 2012 by source.

Regarding electricity production, the mix of different energy sources diverges from the predominance of fossil fuels which can be easily identified in the primary energy sources mentioned above. In fact, 46% of the electricity generated in Galicia in 2012 was produced from renewable energy sources. Wind energy (27%) and hydropower (14%) were the main renewable energy contributors to the Galician electricity mix in 2012. However, coal still accounted for 41% of the 108 PJ of electricity produced in the region in this year.

0%

17% 3%

39%

0%4%2%

1%

34%

0%Coal

Hydropower

Biomass

Biogas

Biofuels

USR

Other residues

Wind

39%

18%

27%

15%

1%

Oil crude

Petroleum products

Natural gas

Biofuels

37

Figure 3.4. Electricity generation in Galicia in 2012 by source.

Coming back to the information presented in the introduction of this master’s thesis, Figure 3.5 shows how the subsidies given to wind energy in the late 1990’s and the decade of the 2000’s led to a great development of this technology in the region. The wind farms built during these years placed Galicia and Spain at the forefront of the implementation of this technology and left a legacy of over 3.3 GW of installed wind power.

Figure 3.5. Installed electricity generation capacity in Galicia 1976-2014 by source.

Finally, an overview of the installed energy capacity and generation in Galicia is presented in Table 3.1 for the year 2012. Based on this information, the practical capacity factor of each technology in this region can be readily calculated. It must be noted, however, that some of these capacity factors do not represent the full potential of the technologies. For instance, thermoelectric power plants running on natural gas or hydroelectric turbines are often used for peak demand needs and they are shut down when renewable energy sources and the Spanish nuclear power plants can fulfil the electricity demand.

4%

41%

9%

14%

2%

27%

1% 0%

1%

1%

0% Petroleum products

Coal

Natural Gas

Hydropower

Minihydro

Wind

Biomass

Biogas

USR

Other residues

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Inst

alle

d c

apac

ity

[MW

]

Hydro Biomass CHP

PV USR Minihydro

Thermoelectric (coal) Thermoelectric (oil&gas) Wind

38

Photovoltaic (PV) cells were responsible for only a very small fraction (<0.1%) of the electricity generated in Galicia in 2012. The potential for solar technologies will be more comprehensively assessed in the next section dealing with renewable energy potentials. Nonetheless, it seems reasonable to assume that this area of Southern Europe should have a better solar energy resource than countries with much more installed solar capacity such as Germany.

Table 3.1. Overview of the electricity generation in Galicia in 2012.

Installed capacity (MW)

Energy generation (GWh/y)

Capacity factor (-)

Petroleum products 317 1104 0.40

Coal 1945 12251 0.72

Natural gas 1449 2589 0.20

Hydropower 3112 4184 0.15

Minihydro 303 614 0.23

Wind energy 3313 8059 0.28

Biomass 63 415 0.75

Biogas 11 24 0.25

USR 24 169 0.80

Other residues 111 139 0.14

Solar PV 17 17 0.11

TOTAL 10665 29565 0.32

3.1.2. Energy demand

The Galician energy demand has been divided in three types, as shown in Figure 3.6, namely electricity, heat and transport. As a summary, the energy consumption of the region amounted to 74 PJ of electricity, 95 PJ of heat and 105 PJ of fuels for transportation in 2012.

Figure 3.6. Energy consumption in Galicia 2012 by type.

An overview of electricity consumption by sectors is presented in Figure 3.7. The presence of two alumina production plants in San Cibrao and A Coruña makes an important contribution

27%

35%

38%

Electricity

Heat

Transport (fuels)

39

to the electricity consumption of the Galician industries. For instance, Alcoa San Cibrao has an annual electricity demand of nearly 13 PJ (ADEGA, 2012), 17% of the total electricity demand in Galicia. Besides Alcoa, Grupo Ferroatlántica (iron alloys), Celsa Atlantic (steel) and PSA Peugeot-Citröen (automotive) are some of the biggest electricity consumers among the Galician industries. The services sector and the households were responsible for 23% and 22% of the electricity consumption in the region in 2012, which amounted to a total of 74 PJ.

Figure 3.7. Electricity consumption in Galicia 2012 by sectors.

Regarding the transportation sector, the figure below clearly shows that it relies heavily on fossil fuels. Diesel oil and gasolines are the main energy sources used for transportation, mainly for cars and regional freight transport. In total, 105 PJ were used for road, sea and air transport during the year 2012. Biofuels, electricity and LPGs remain as marginal contributors in this picture.

Figure 3.8. Fuels used for transportation in Galicia 2012 by type.

Finally, an overview of the installed energy capacity and generation in Galicia is presented in Table 3.2 for the year 2012.

1%

49%

2%

23%

2%

1% 22% Fishing, agriculture, mines

Industry

Services

Construction

Transport

Households

16%

68%

2%2%

0% 0%

1%4%

7%

Gasolines

Diesel oil

Kerosene

Fuel oil

LPG

Natural gas

Electricity

Bioethanol

Biodiesel

40

Table 3.2. Overview of the energy consumption in Galicia in 2012.

Consumption (PJ)

Electricity 74

Heat from CHP 14

Heat from fuels 82

Petroleum products and coal 34

Natural gas 17

Biomass and residues 30

Solar thermal 0.1

Fuels for transportation 105

Petroleum products 98

Natural gas 0.1

Biofuels 7

TOTAL 265

3.2. Stakeholders

In this Sub-section, the most relevant actors concerning the transition towards a sustainable energy system in Galicia will be analysed by firstly dividing them into seven groups, and then identifying their interests in the energy transition. Having assessed the role and interests driving each group of stakeholders is expected to provide relevant information for the backcasting analysis and the recommendations of this master’s thesis, where the actions that different stakeholders should perform to achieve the Desired Vision will be highlighted.

3.2.1. Financers

The significant investments associated with energy projects, often with payback periods longer than a decade, make financers a very important group of stakeholders if an energy transition is to be achieved. Investors, subsidy providers and banks, including the Official Credit Institute (Instituto de Crédito Oficial, ICO), a public bank, can be tagged as financers. The main driver behind for-profit institutions such as banks and other financers such as venture capital firms is maximizing their profits while minimizing the risk of their investment. Therefore, investments in sustainable energy technologies are expected to be more attractive for this group of stakeholders when a stable and trustworthy framework for the implementation of these technologies is provided by the government.

3.2.2. Research and knowledge institutes

A research or knowledge institute is an establishment endowed for developing science by performing research activities. Subsequently, the main representatives of this category will be briefly described in this sub-section.

41

There are three public universities in Galicia, namely the University of A Coruña (Universidade da Coruña, UDC), the University of Santiago de Compostela (Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, USC), and the University of Vigo (Universidade de Vigo, UVigo). UVigo has several research groups focused on sustainable energy, and it offers a bachelor’s degree in energy engineering and two master’s degree: energy & sustainability, and management for the sustainable development. Consequently, this university has the potential to instruct a number of highly formed professionals in the field of sustainable energy and to make a significant contribution through its own research. The USC offers a master’s degree in renewable energies and energy sustainability, along with other related master and PhD programmes focusing on sustainable management of the territory, environmental engineering, forest engineering, etc. Therefore, many professionals on fields which are relevant to achieve a sustainable energy system can receive relevant education in this institution, and an important contribution to the knowledge on these topics can be made from Santiago de Compostela. Due to the efforts of the Galician government to distribute the areas of focus of these three universities to pursue excellence, the UDC may contribute the least to topics related to the energy transition. Nonetheless, a master’s degree in sustainable building technologies and a research group focusing on the social aspects of sustainability, among others, show the potential of this university to provide important support to achieve a sustainable energy system. At a national level, the Institute for Energy Diversification and Savings (Instituto para la Diversificación y el Ahorro de la Energía, IDAE) is the biggest research and knowledge institute. They have published a variety of comprehensive national energy balances, potentials for different energy sources, prospects on the effect of energy efficiency, etc. The Energy Institute of Galicia (Instituto Enerxético de Galicia, INEGA) develops its activities at the regional level, focusing on energy savings and energy efficieny, promoting renewable energies, energy planning, etc. INEGA, as seen in subsections 3.1 and 3.2, publish the annual energy balance of Galicia. The Technology Institute of Galicia (Instituto Tecnolóxico de Galicia, ITG) is a national technology centre which offers R&D management for companies and develops its own research on different topics. Among others, the ITG works on several energy efficiency projects and promotes the implementation of the sustainable building certification BREEAM© (BRE Environmental Assessment Method) in Spain. According to their own description, “Energy Lab is a non-profit public-private foundation. Its mission involves developing and spreading technologies, products and consumption habits that optimize energy efficiency and sustainability in several sectors such as industrial, tertiary, transport and society in general” (Energy Lab, 2015).

3.2.3. Companies

These stakeholders are responsible of designing, building and installing renewable energy technologies, energy efficiency measures and power infrastructure. There are many local and national companies involved in this process. The National Market and Competition Commission (Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia, CNMC) offers two updated lists regarding the natural gas and the electricity

42

commercialization companies in Spain (CNMC, 2015), respectively. Meanwhile, the INEGA keeps track of the electricity distribution and commercialization companies; as well as operators of natural gas, LPGs and petroleum products in the region (INEGA, 2015). The existence of a petroleum refinery near the city of A Coruña can be highlighted due to the relevance of its operations at the regional level. Given the relatively high implementation of wind energy in Galicia, companies like Fenosa Wind, Iberdrola, Enel Green Power, Endesa, Acciona and Norvento play an important role by building and operating the wind farms. The latter, Norvento, is a local engineering company which has developed its own small wind turbines, the nED 100. Enertres and Ecoforest, among many other companies, are leading the installation of low temperature geothermal systems and biomass heaters in the region, while Ence produces energy from biomass at a larger scale along with cellulose products in their factory of Pontevedra. The Galician Society for the Environment (Sociedade Galega do Medio Ambiente, SOGAMA) has an incinerating plant which generates energy from urban solid residues (USR). Magallanes Renovables has recently launched a prototype of a trimaran which can generate tidal energy (Magallanes Renovables, 2015). Finally, only relatively small sized companies such as Galivoltaica or Enertres have been found to be taking part in the solar energy market, with barely any research projects going on.

3.3.4. Users

Users of energy –be it electricity, natural gas, fuels…- are a vital stakeholder group. On the one hand, users have the possibility to influence the evolution of the energy system by generating a demand of green energy. For instance, this can be reflected in the choice of suppliers with a higher share of renewable energy in their mix. On the other hand, as citizens, users also have the power to influence the policy regarding energy by voting political parties which are in favour of a more sustainable society and by demonstrating for or against measures and laws regarding energy. As an example, great opposition was shown by many people to the Royal Decree regulating electricity self-supply. Wind farms and other energy infrastructure can also cause a public debate.

3.3.5. Interest groups

Interest groups such as associations, groups and clusters of individuals, companies and organizations, have interests related with the transition towards a sustainable energy system where renewable energies play a vital role. In Galicia, there are several associations representing, among others:

Wind energy: Asociación Eólica de Galicia, EGA;

Galician Offshore Energy Group, GOE.

Geothermal energy: Asociación Clúster da Xeotermia Galega, Acluxega.

Renewable energies: Clúster de Energías Renovables de Galicia, CLUERGAL.

Energy self-supply: Clúster Galego do Autoconsumo Enerxético, AGAEN.

Energy cooperative: Nosa Enerxía S.C.G.

Environmental groups: Grupo Naturalista Hábitat;

Federación Ecoloxista Galega; Asociación para a Defensa Ecolóxica de Galicia, ADEGA; Verdegaia; Amigos da Terra; etc.

43

3.3.6. Media

Often referred as the Fourth Estate, the news media has an undeniable power as a generator of opinion. Print journalism, radio, television and the internet can play an important role in the transition towards a sustainable energy system by providing users with relevant information and by creating debate around energy-related topics. Dinamo Técnica is a Galician magazine specialised on energy. Regional newspapers such as La Voz de Galicia, Faro de Vigo, El Ideal Gallego, Atlántico, El Correo Gallego, or La Opinión de A Coruña are also important means of communication, albeit without focusing on energy issues. Additionally, there are regional radio and televisión companies such as the Compañía de radio televisión de Galicia (CRTVG).

3.3.7. Policy makers

The European Union (EU) and other international decision-making bodies such as the United Nations’ Conference of the Parties (COP) set laws and objectives related to energy and climate change. These common objectives and agreements generate an ecosystem where national and regional bodies as the ones mentioned below must operate, and the measures that can or must be taken. Usually, these international organizations set minimums that all countries must comply with. The Spanish Government (Gobierno de España), and in particular the Ministry of Industry, Energy and Tourism (Ministerio de Industria, Energía y Turismo, MINETUR), are responsible of the energy policy at the national level. The Spanish Government creates its own laws, regulations and frameworks, setting targets which stimulate the implementation of sustainable energy technologies. The Government of Galicia (Xunta de Galicia) and the Parliament of Galicia are the decision-making bodies which operate in the autonomous community of Galicia. The Government of Galicia also comprises a specialised Ministry of Economy and Industry (Consellería de Economía e Industria) which has competences in the energy policy of the region, as long as they do not interfere with national policies. For the last 30 years, the president of Galicia has alternatively been affiliated to either the Partido Popular (PP) or the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE), the two major Spanish political parties. Nationalistic parties and movements also have a significant support, and usually voice the most environmentally-friendly concerns in the Galician parliament. Additionally, all four provinces of Galicia have their own council (Deputacións de A Coruña, Lugo, Ourense e Pontevedra). In collaboration with local municipalities, both are responsible for some local and regional energy-related initiatives. However, the municipalities and provincial councils are very dependent on laws and regulations set by the Spanish and the Galician governments.

3.3.8. Overview of stakeholders and their interests

In order to summarize the most important stakeholders related to the transition towards a sustainable energy in Galicia, Table 3.3 provides an overview of the aforementioned stakeholder groups and their general interests, as well as a more detailed list of many individual stakeholders and their specific interests in this topic.

44

Table 3.3. Overview of stakeholders and their interests in the transition towards a sustainable energy system in Galicia.

Stakeholder

group General interest Stakeholders Specific interest

Financers

Investing or lending money

with the objective of maximizing profits and/or encouraging

certain activities

Banks and investors

Maximizing profits from investments associated with the implementation of sustainable energy technologies

Subsidy providers

Encouraging the implementation of sustainable energy technologies by

reducing the economic uncertainty of these investments

Research and knowledge institutes

Creating and

spreading knowledge by

educating experts, publishing reports, and doing scientific

research

Universities Performing scientific research on SETs

and educating engineers and scientists

IDAE

Encouraging the Spanish objectives regarding energy efficiency,

renewable energies and other low-carbon technologies

INEGA Encouraging the use of Galician energy sources and renewable

energies

ITG

Performing R&D projects on energy efficiency, energy audit, simulation,

certification, monitoring, and management

EnergyLab

Developing and spreading technologies, products, and

consumption habits that optimize energy efficiency and sustainability

Companies

Maximizing profits

Energy companies

Maximizing profits by operating in the energy generation, transportation,

and/or distribution sectors Consulting companies

Maximizing profits by providing energy advisory services

Technology and Engineering companies

Maximizing profits by designing, building and installing sustainable

energy technologies and power infrastructure

Users

Using different types of energy and

influence the decisions of policy

makers

Users

Covering their electricity, heat, and fuel needs. Choices based on personal

preferences (e.g. economic, environmental factors)

Citizens Showing (dis-)agreement with energy

policies via their vote and/or demonstrations

Interest groups

Promoting sustainable energy

technologies, EGA

Promoting the use of wind energy and the creation of a favorable legal

framework

45

increasing cooperation, and lobbying for their

interests

GOE Promoting the construction and

maintenance of offshore wind energy farms in Galicia

Acluxega Spreading the knowledge, promoting

the market, and creating standards on geothermal systems

CLUERGAL

Increasing the collaboration, promoting innovations, improving the

education and training, and the promotion of joint actions to gain

competitiveness in the field of renewable energies

AGAEN Promoting energy self-consumption and employment in the renewable

energy sector

Nosa Enerxía S.C.G.

Spreading the democratization of the energy system and the access to

renewable electricity

Environmental groups

Protecting the environment and natural spaces, animals, plants, water

bodies, and forests

Media

Providing information,

creating debate, and spreading

knowledge

General media Providing relevant information and creating debate on the transition

towards a sustainable energy system

Energy media Spreading knowledge on sustainable

energy technologies and specific developments in the region

Policy makers

Setting targets and boundaries for

different stakeholders, and

ensuring their compliance with

the laws and regulations

European Union and international

partnerships

Setting targets on the share of renewable energy sources in the mix,

reduction of CO2 emissions, energy efficiency standards, etc.

Spanish Government

Creating laws, regulations and agreements related to sustainable

energy technologies

Galician Government

Complying with national and international laws, regulations and

targets

Regional Governments


targets. Limited decision making power

Municipal Governments


targets. Local decision making power

46

3.3. Factors

In the previous Sub-sections, the technical aspects of the current energy system and the actors involved in the state and developments of the energy system in Galicia have been assessed. The factors affecting the evolution of the Galician energy system will be presented in this Sub-section structured as a PESTEL analysis: Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal factors will now be analysed from the perspective of the energy system.

Figure 3.9. Factors studied in a PESTEL analysis.

3.3.1. Political factors

The political factors determine the extent to which a government may influence the energy industry. As it is the case in most western countries, the implementation of long-term policies with associated short-term disadvantages tends to be avoided by politicians. The perceived risk of curbing the economic growth or losing popularity by implementing aggressive energy policies keep delaying the most economically efficient ones, such as taxing fossil fuels, legislature after legislature. The lack of agreement between the two major Spanish political parties in energy issues and the erratic incentive schemes hinder the trust of investors, such as the retroactive measures included in the clean energy bill overhaul of 2014 which capped the earnings from renewable energy investments under feed-in-tariff schemes (Roca, 2014).

Political

Economic

Social

Technological

Environmental

Legal

47

3.3.2. Economic factors

These factors determine the performance of the economy that directly impacts the energy industry. The effects of the 2007 economic crisis seem to be finally reversing also in Galicia, with an increase of 3.2% in the GDP in 2015, after decreasing over 8% between 2008 and 2015. While the unemployment rate is recovering as well, it still remains very high at 17.7% in 2015 (Expansión, 2016). This creates a rather pessimistic economic perspective in a significant part of the population, and an unfavourable atmosphere to make unnecessary long-term investments such as installing solar panels at home. A Coruña and Pontevedra are undoubtedly the most industrialized provinces of Galicia and have driven a significant part of the economic growth. Large exporters such as the textile conglomerate Inditex, the oil and gas refinery of Repsol in A Coruña, the aluminium factories of Alcoa, or the PSA Peugeot Citroën factory in Vigo, make a strong contribution to the GDP, create employment, and are among the most important energy consumers in the region. Therefore, interventions affecting these industries, such as raising the price of electricity or banning the use of oil derivatives, might face additional opposition from the communities that directly and indirectly depend on these large corporations.

3.3.3. Social factors

Social preferences can redefine what is politically acceptable in any region. These factors determine the social environment such as cultural trends or environmental concern of the citizens. Social changes such as the use of public transport, the adoption of energy efficiency measures, or the willingness to accept higher taxes on fossil fuels or promote subsidies on renewable energies can greatly influence the energy landscape of the region. Three main subsets of stakeholders can be defined: users, interest groups, and media.

3.3.4. Technological factors

The technical part of the current energy system has already been analysed in Sub-section 3.4. Other technological factors are related to the stage of development of certain sustainable energy technologies. For instance, while wind energy has been extensively implemented in the region, producing biodiesel from microalgae still requires additional research and development before reaching commercial stages. As a consequence of the time horizon selected for this backcasting exercise being 2030, basing the Desired Vision on mature or almost mature technologies would reduce the uncertainty and help develop a more realistic future for the Galician energy system.

3.3.5. Environmental factors

The Galician identity is linked to nature, and its tourism traditionally relies on its numerous natural spaces. Galician dunes, forests, lagoons or estuaries are just some examples among more than 50 protected areas in the Natura 2000 network. Consequently, any energy infrastructure located in this region should pay special attention to its effects on the local landscape and wildlife. While this can affect in a negative way some potential wind farm sites, the memory of eight oil spills and their associated natural disasters in the Galician coast, with the Prestige in 2002 being the most recent one, tend to favour the social opinion towards transitioning to a more sustainable energy system.

48

In section 4, the potential to generate energy from the sun, wind, biomass, waves, and geothermal energy will be analysed.

3.3.5. Legal factors

The European Union, as mentioned previously when discussing the stakeholder group of policy-makers, sets common targets that EU countries must comply with. Meanwhile, the Spanish Government creates more specific measures and laws to regulate the energy market and achieve the guidelines given by the EU. While discussing in detail all the laws and mandates is out of the scope of this master’s thesis, an overview of the relevant documents can be found in the website of the Spanish Association of Renewable Energy Companies (Asociación de Empresas de Energías Renovables, APPA) for both European (APPA, 2015) and Spanish (APPA, 2015a) laws regarding renewable energy. An overview of the laws relevant to each sector (e.g. electricity, oil, gas, renewable energy…) can also be found in the yearly Spanish Energy Balance (MINETUR, 2014).

3.3.6. Summary

The most important takeaways from this PESTEL analysis of the factors affecting the current energy system are presented below:

Political: The lack of agreement between the two major political parties, their short-

term focus, and the insufficient stability of incentives for renewable energy sources

hinder the crucial step of gaining the investors’ trust.

Economic: The GDP growth seen in 2015 could mean that the recovery from the 2007

global economic crisis is on its way. On the one hand, as proposed by some Spanish

political parties at a national level, raising the public spending on energy efficiency

measures and a transformation of the energy system could also create jobs to alleviate

the high unemployment rate. On the other hand, households still lack the confidence

to make unnecessary long-term investments such as buying a photovoltaic system to

generate their own electricity.

Social: In spite of a general agreement that a transition towards a sustainable energy

system is positive and even necessary, few groups are willing to take action.

Technological: The energy supply and demand systems described in sub-section 3.1

are the starting point of the transitions that will be proposed in subsequent sections. It

can be noted that almost 50% of the electricity production came from renewable energy

sources in 2012, while 88% of the energy used for transportation is obtained from fossil

fuels. Furthermore, the use of technologies at or approaching its maturity has been

recommended in order to avoid the uncertainty associated with pending R&D efforts.

Environmental: Nature is particularly valuable in Galicia from both an economic and

a sentimental point of view. On the one hand, this feeling can be used to drive the

transition towards a sustainable energy system. On the other hand, the effect of new

49

energy infrastructure on the ecosystem must be assessed with particular care in order

to avoid social opposition.

Legal: Most energy policies are adopted from higher governmental bodies. Fossil fuels

are not heavily taxed, while national laws on self-consumption of energy are creating

barriers that hinder the development of photovoltaic energy.

50

4. Renewable energy potential In this section, the potential of different renewable energy sources (i.e. biomass, geothermal, hydroelectric, ocean, solar, and wind) will be individually assessed for the autonomous community of Galicia. Subsequently, the potential of energy efficiency measures to reduce the energy demand will be analysed. Additionally, the different options to store energy in this region will be discussed. Finally, an overview of all these potentials will compare these potentials with the current demand of electricity, heat, and fuels.

4.1. Biomass energy

Biomass is organic matter derived from plants and animals. It can either be used directly via combustion to produce heat, or indirectly after converting it to various forms of biofuel. In this thesis, the focus will be put on direct combustion and on the production of biodiesel and biogas. Consequently, biodiesel sources will be first assessed. Then, wood, agricultural residues and manure will be analysed as energy sources.

4.1.1. Biodiesel

If a transition to a sustainable energy system is to be achieved, a significant substitution of fossil fuels in the transportation sector is needed. As it is also the case in other European countries and as it was already discussed in section 3, 68% of the fuels used for transportation in Galicia in 2012 was diesel oil. The feasibility of substituting fossil diesel oil with biodiesel is assessed by means of Table 4.1 Once the productivity of each raw material is known, the percentage of the Galician agricultural land needed to satisfy the entire the diesel demand using biodiesel is calculated. The considered agricultural area is 914853 ha (IGE, 2009) and the lower heating value (LHV) of biodiesel is considered to be 37.53 MJ/kg (DOE, 2011). Finally, the amount of diesel oil consumed in Galicia in 2012 was 99 PJ (INEGA, 2014).

Table 4.1. Comparison between several energy crops for the production of biodiesel

(adaptation from Mata et al, 2010).

Raw material

Oil content (%weight in

biomass)

Oil production

(L/ha*y)

Land use (m2 year/

kgbiodiesel)

Productivity (kgbiodiesel/ ha*year)

% Agr. area of Galicia needed to

satisfy diesel demand

Corn 44 172 66 152 1901

Hemp 33 363 31 321 900

Soy 18 636 18 562 514

Jatropha C. 28 741 15 656 441

Camelina 42 915 12 809 357

Rapeseed 41 974 12 862 335

Sunflower 40 1070 11 946 305

51

Castor 48 1307 9 1156 250

Palm 36 5366 2 4747 61

Microalgae (low oil content)

30 58700 0.2 51927 5.6

Microalgae (medium oil content)

50 97800 0.1 86515 3.3

Microalgae (high oil content)

70 136900 0.1 121104 2.4

The conclusion that can be drawn from the estimations shown in Table 4.1 is that microalgae are the only viable raw material. Besides palm oil, which is grown in tropical climates different to that of Galicia, the remaining crops would need an unacceptable portion of the agricultural land. For example, over three times the current agricultural land of Galicia would be needed if the petro-diesel demand was fulfilled by biodiesel using rapeseed or sunflower crops, which are currently the most widespread energy crops in Spain. One of the peculiarities of microalgae is that they don’t have to be produced in agricultural land, which means that the potential of biodiesel from microalgae in Galicia can be determined using other factors. First of all, although some microalgae strains can be grown in fresh water, the vast availability of seawater in the region can avoid the use of valuable fresh water with this end. Consequently, a maximum distance to the coast of 20 km2 is selected, which leaves approximately 6500 km2 of land. IDAE-AICIA-CENER-IDOM (2011) use a factor of 38% in order to exclude protected natural areas, hydrography, roads and population centres. That is, only 38% of the total area is available for the installation of energy systems. This factor is scaled down to 20% in order to account for the fact that most of the population, cities and villages are located in coastal areas. By applying this factor to the value calculated in the previous paragraph, the total available area where microalgae could be grown is approximately 1300 km2, or 130000 ha. Based on this estimation, and using microalgae with medium oil content as a benchmark, over 11 million tonnes of biodiesel could be produced annually. This amount would be equal to 421 PJ per year, more than four times the petro-diesel consumption in Galicia in 2012, while avoiding competition with food crops in terms of freshwater and agricultural land. It must be noted, however, that biodiesel production from microalgae is still in a developing stage. While there are already some pilot plants in the US and Israel, and even Spanish companies such as AlgaEnergy aiming to reach this objective within the next decade, there are still many technical challenges that need to be overcome before these facilities can be profitable and reliable at the large-scale. Therefore, a big question mark surrounds the potential of biodiesel to displace diesel in Galicia before 2030. If only currently available technology is used, and considering (an extra) 25% of agricultural land being used for rapeseed crops (sunflower, castor and palm are discarded due to climate conditions), the regional potential to produce biodiesel would be 7 PJ.

4.1.2. Bioethanol

Continuing with the potential to substitute transportation fuels with renewable and local resources, the bioethanol potential will be calculated. As it was already discussed in section 3, 16% of the fuel used for transportation in Galicia in 2012 were gasolines.

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The feasibility of substituting fossil diesel oil with biodiesel is assessed by means of Table 4.1. Once the productivity of each raw material is known, the percentage of the Galician agricultural land needed to satisfy the entire the diesel demand using biodiesel is calculated. The considered agricultural area is 914,853 ha (IGE, 2009) and the lower heating value (LHV) of bioethanol is considered to be 21.29 MJ/L (DOE, 2011). Finally, the amount of diesel oil consumed in Galicia in 2012 was 14 PJ (INEGA, 2014).

Table 4.2. Comparison between several energy crops for the production of biodiesel.

Sources: Kim & Dale (2004), Bourne (2007), Chisti (2008), DFRA (2015), World Bank

(2016).

Raw material

Productivity (Lbioethanol /ha*y)

% Agr. area of Galicia needed

to satisfy gasoline demand

Soybeans 560 133

Bagasse 1400 53

Sorghum 1760 42

Oat 1810 41

Rice 1920 39

Barley 2700 28

Corn 2800 27

Wheat 3520 21

Sugarcane 7500 10

Microalgae 47000 1.6

In this case, locally produced bioethanol does have the potential to displace gasoline. Microalgae, as mentioned in the previous sub-section, are still in R&D stage and have numerous technical challenges to be overcome. The Galician climate hinders the cultivation of sugarcane, rice, or soybean. However, corn and wheat are already being produced in Galicia for food, and additional energy crops of these raw materials could take advantage of the deeply rooted agricultural tradition of the region. Considering that (an extra) 25% of the agricultural land could be used for wheat and corn energy crops, a potential of 15 PJ/y could be achieved.

4.1.3. Wood

Every year, between 6 and 7 million m3 of wood is cut from the Galician forests (IGE, 2012). The forestry area in Galicia accounts for 70% of its surface, and 30% of it remains unused. The model of private smallholders is the main cause of inefficiencies in the management of forests (BCG, 2013). By restructuring property, the volume of wood could be ramped up and reach 9 Mm3/y, while improving the management of forests and transforming the industry could potentially have greater impact.

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This raw material mainly comes from two species of trees: the maritime pine (pinus pinaster) and the eucalyptus; accounting for approximately 35% and 52% of the total, respectively (IGE, 2012). The remaining 13% of wood comes from similar trees, so for the following calculations it will be assumed that 60% and 40% of the wood comes from eucalyptus and maritime pine, respectively. In the next step, a higher heating value (HHV) of 17.6 MJ/kg for Eucalyptus and of 20.2 MJ/kg for the maritime pine (Telmo & Lousada, 2011) is used. Eucalyptus wood has a density of 750 kg/m3 (Pérez et al, 2006), while pine wood’s density is approximately 540 kg/m3 (Fortunato et al, 1992). Consequently, the energy potential of the annual production of wood in Galicia can be calculated, resulting in 104 PJ of heat. It must be noted that this wood can be distributed anywhere in the region as wood pellets and/or logs, which means that the heat is generated where needed.

4.1.4. Agricultural residues and manure

Agricultural activities and the regional cattle industry produce a significant amount of residues. Manure and crop leftovers (e.g. corn, wheat, potatoes, legumes…) can be used to generate heat locally and/or to produce biogas which can also be transported to other locations. The energy potential of agricultural residues is estimated. In the first place, data regarding the area used by the main Galician crops is obtained from the Galician Institute of Statistics (IGE, 2015). The amount of residues produced per hectare and the volume of biogas produced per tonne is extracted from Ricken (2012: 49). Subsequently, the potential heat produced by direct combustion or by using the biogas can be estimated.

Table 4.3. Energy potential of agricultural residues.

Residues of…

Area used

(ha)

Production (tondry

matter/ ha)

Amount (tondry

matter)

HHV (MWh/

ton)

Biogas productio

n (m3/ton)

Heat (PJ)

Biogas

(PJ)

Cereals 41000 4.5 184500 5.1 380 3.4 1.5

Grass 287000 12 3444000 5.1 300 63.2 21.7

Tubers 20000 10 200000 4.8 350 3.5 1.5

Legumes 2100 5 10500 4.6 300 0.2 0.1

Vegetables and fruits

16000 6 96000 4.5 300

1.5 0.6

Total

71.8 25.3

Then, the energy potential of manure produced by the most common farm animals is estimate. First, the amount of animals of each type is found (IGE, 2015a). Then, an estimate of the daily amount of manure produced per 1000 lb animal unit (USDA, 1992) is adapted to the average weight of each animal in order to obtain the second column of Table 4.4. Again, using the same data as Ricken (2012: 50) for the Higher Heating Value (HHV) and the biogas produced from each source, the potential for direct and indirect heat production can be calculated.

Table 4.4. Energy potential of animal manure.

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Manure from…

Animal units

Total manure per animal unit

(kg/day)

HHV (MWh/ton)

Biogas

production (m3 /ton)

Heat (PJ)

Biogas (PJ)

Cows 936000 27 4.1 25 136.2 4.9

Hogs and pigs 1071000 22 4.1 25 126.9 4.5

Sheep 187700 6 4.1 25 6.1 0.0

Goat 42900 5 4.1 25 1.2 0.0

Total 270.4 2.7

To wrap up, the main biomass energy potentials of Galicia are summarized in Table 4.5. It must be noted that the heat and biogas potentials from the same source (i.e. agricultural residues or manure) are mutually exclusive. In other words, if all crop residues were to be used to generate heat by means of direct combustion, there would be no crop residues left to be transformed in biogas. Furthermore, it is assumed that only 70% of these residues can be used.

Table 4.5. Biomass energy potentials.

Fuel (PJ/y) Heat (PJ/y) Biogas (PJ/y)

Biodiesel 637 - -

Bioethanol 14 - -

Wood - 104 -

Crop residues - 72 25

Manure - 270 11

Real potential 70% 70% 70%

Total 457 410-446 0-36

4.2. Geothermal energy

While over 82% of the European surface has available temperature data at 2000m depth (Chamorro et al, 2013), this percentage goes down to 0% in the case of Galicia. As a consequence, the temperature profile as a function of depth needs to be estimated. Many studies (e.g. Hurtig, 1995; Cloetingh et al, 2010) use the one dimensional approach to solve Poisson’s equation (Chamorro, 2014). A detailed explanation of the values chosen for each parameter can be found in the aforementioned article (Chamorro et al, 2014). A commercial Geographic Information System software was used by this author to combine the information available in temperature maps for different depths. In general, these maps show that Galicia has one of the biggest geothermal resources of the Iberian Peninsula, but it can’t be compared to regions with volcanic activity such as Italy, Japan, Iceland or Turkey.

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Figure 4.1. Surface heat flow rate map of the Iberian Peninsula extracted from the Atlas of

Geothermal Resources in Europe (Hurter et al, 2002; as cited in Chamorro et al, 2014).

In general, geothermal systems are not completely sustainable. That is, they are designed to deplete the geothermal reservoir faster than its natural recovery rate. As a consequence, they typically last for about 30 years, and a 10% decrease of the reservoir temperature is allowed (Maghami Nick H, personal communication, May 12, 2015). Since the intention of this section is to assess the sustainable energy potentials, the utilization of the geothermal heat flow will be considered, as the natural renewal rate. An average heat flow of 120 mW/m2 can be extracted from Figure 4.1. Assuming that geothermal systems could be placed all over Galicia’s underground (29574 km2), an efficiency of 0.9 and a capacity factor of 0.8 (Maghami Nick H, personal communication, May 19, 2015), 81 PJ/y of low temperature geothermal energy could be sustainably extracted in Galicia:

𝐺𝑒𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 (𝑇𝑊ℎ

𝑦) = 120

𝑘𝑊

𝑘𝑚2∗ 29574 𝑘𝑚2 ∗ 0.9 ∗ (8760

ℎ

𝑦∗ 0.8) ∗

1 𝑇𝑊ℎ

109𝑘𝑊

No high temperature areas were found in Galicia due to the lack of active volcanic areas.

Table 4.6. Geothermal potential of Galicia, elaborated with data from IDAE (2011) and

Camorro et al (2014).

Low temperature High Temperature

Heat potential (PJth/y)

81

Not considered

Electricity potential (PJe/y)

Not considered

Not considered

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4.3. Hydroelectric energy

Hydropower consists in the generation of electricity through the use of gravitational force of falling or flowing water. Galicia belongs to the North Basin (Cuenca Norte), which is divided in the Atlantic watershed (Vertiente Atlántica) and the Cantabrian watershed (Vertiente Cantábrica). These are shown in the map of Figure 4.2 as the dark turquoise and the pink areas belonging to Galicia, respectively.

Figure 4.2. Map of the hydrographic basins of Spain (Franco Aliaga, 2010).

Hydroelectric energy has been extensively developed in Spain during the XX century. As a result, 3.4 GW are already installed in the Galician rivers, particularly in the Miño, Sil, Xallas, Tambre, Ulla and Bibey rivers. However, there is still room for hydroelectric capacity. The IDAE has determined that the North Basin has a total technically feasible potential of 81 PJ/year (IDAE, 2011a: 314). Since this piece of information includes the potential of other regions of Spain which belong to the North Basin, the Galician potential needs to be isolated. Coming back to the information shown in Table 3.1, the energy generated by hydropower in Galicia in 2012 was 17 PJ. When compared to the 38 PJ of yearly hydroelectric production of the North Basin (IDAE, 2011a: 314), and assuming an equal contribution of the different areas, it can be concluded that Galicia represents approximately 44% of the North Basin’s generation. Therefore, applying this percentage to the aforementioned 81 PJ/year, the technically feasible potential of hydropower in Galicia can be estimated to be 36 PJ/year. In other words, Galicia could produce twice as much hydroelectric energy as it is currently generating.

Table 4.7. Hydroelectric energy potential of Galicia.

Hydropower + Minihydro

Average energy potential (PJ/y)

36

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4.4. Ocean energy

Ocean energy systems encompass five different technologies which generate energy from the sea, namely: Wave energy, Tidal energy, Marine current energy, Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) and Salinity gradients. Based on global estimations by the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2007), osmotic power, marine current power and tidal energy have the lowest potentials among these technologies. In particular, the great environmental value of the Galician rías could be expected to be a major reason for social resistance against the implementation of tidal barrages, while tidal stream energy showed limited potential in a study performed for the Ría de Muros e Noia in Galicia (Carballo, 2009), which suggests that the annual potential for the entire region is well below 3.6 PJ. In spite of OTEC being a promising technology with a global potential of 3 to 5 TW (TU Delft, 2015), it is viable primarily in equatorial areas where the year-round temperature differential is at least 20ºC. The Galician coasts are not suitable for this technology at the moment, given that the average temperature near the surface is around 15ºC and that deep ocean water is at least 0-3ºC. Bearing this in mind, this thesis will only assess the potential of wave energy in Galicia.

4.4.1. Wave energy

As wind blows over the Atlantic Ocean, it is supplying the NW of Spain with a significant amount of energy in the form of waves. Galicia is well known for its harsh wave climate, which is among the most energetic in Europe (Iglesias, 2009). A study of the wave energy potential in Galicia developed by Iglesias (2009) failed to quantify the total resource in the region, but provides a great methodological introduction to the topic and examples of its use. Figure 4.3 shows the offshore wave energy potential of Galicia as calculated by this author by means of a WAM numerical model which delivers a data set of time series of wind and wave parameters.

Figure 4.3. Wave energy potential offshore Galicia (Iglesias, 2009).

A more complex approach needs to be taken when the wave energy converters are placed closer to the coastline. The deep water model presented above must be adapted to include the refraction, shoaling and bottom friction effects caused by the interaction of the waves with seabed as they travel towards the shoreline. The examples presented in the mentioned study use the third generation nearshore wave model SWAN, developed by TU Delft. When applied

58

to a specific area, this model facilitates the identification of areas where refraction caused by the bathymetry may lead to local concentrations of energy. Figure 4.4 is a good example where areas of relatively high wave energy concentration can be easily spotted in the Costa Ártabra, Galicia. It can also be seen how wave energy generally decreases as the distance to shore is diminished.

Figure 4.4. Wave power between Cape San Adrián and Cape Ortegal (Iglesias, 2009).

A similar propagation model was used by IH Cantabria (2011) to calculate the wave energy potential of the Spanish coasts for different depths (20m, 50m and 100m). Galicia stands out as the region with the highest gross average energy. A rather rough estimation of the net average energy potential was performed by using coefficients taking into account nature protection areas (0.8), storm and calm stops (0.8), hydrodynamic efficiency (0.4), electro-mechanic efficiency (0.8), transformer efficiency (0.9), alternator consumption (0.95) and electricity transport (0.9). Despite using these optimistic coefficient, the resulting overall efficiency to obtain the net average energy production is 16% (IH Cantabria, 2011). These parameters are presented so they can be easily modified under different conditions and for future developments in wave energy technologies.

Table 4.8. Average wave energy potential of Galicia (data from IDAEa, 2011).

Depth 100 m 50 m 20 m

Gross average energy potential (PJ/y)

325

263

181

Net average energy potential (PJ/y)

52

42

29

59

4.5. Solar energy

Figure 4.5. Global horizontal irradiation [kWh/m2day] – annual average.

Solar energy. There are different systems capable of transforming the solar energy into electricity (photovoltaics, thermoelectric) or heat (solar thermal). Prior to assessing the potential for each of these types of solar systems in Galicia, the irradiance of this region must be analysed. The yearly average of the global horizontal irradiation (GHI) is shown in Figure 4.5. Unsurprisingly, the North of Galicia has the lowest GHI levels of the entire region, while the most promising areas for solar energy are located in the South, as well as in the South-West coast – Rías Baixas – and in the mountains of Ourense in the South-East. Accordingly, the provinces of Pontevedra and Ourense would have, in principle, the highest potential for solar energy systems. However, solar modules are rarely installed horizontally. They are usually installed with the annual optimal inclination, 32.5°, which is given by the latitude (42.5°) minus 10°. Figure 4.6

includes the global horizontal irradiation in Spain for the optimal inclination in each location. It can also be used to compare the potential of other regions in Spain. While it can be clearly seen that the average global irradiation in Galicia is nearly 40% lower than in the South of Spain, it is still 30-50% higher than in other European countries such as Germany or the Netherlands (Huld & Pineda, 2012a). Therefore, Galicia can still be seen as a promising location for solar energy systems with a yearly average of nearly 1600 kWh/m2.

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Figure 4.6 Global irradiation in Spain for the optimal module inclination (Huld & Pinedo-

Pascua, 2012).

Once the solar energy resource is known, the area which is available for solar energy systems should be estimated before calculating the potential of Galicia. These systems can either be installed on roofs or on the ground. The built-up area, which is the area covered with buildings and greenhouses, was 6268 km2 in 2012 in Spain as a whole (Eurostat, 2015). Given that the population of Galicia stands for 5.88% -2.75 million- of the Spanish population (INE, 2014), and assuming that the built-up area is proportional to the population, we can conclude that the built-up area in Galicia amounts to 369 km2. As a consequence of the way that “built-up area” is defined by Eurostat, these 369 km2 coincide with the total roof area of Galicia. Finally, a 60% factor is used to account for the roof area which can’t be used because of excessive shadowing and/or the presence of chimneys and antennas. All in all, the estimated roof area available for the installation of solar systems would be 221 km2. With regard to the total land area available for solar systems mounted on the ground, a larger number can be found. Starting with the total area of Galicia -29680 km2-, a study developed by IDAE, AICIA, CENER and IDOM applied filters to exclude protected natural areas, hydrography, roads, coastline and population centres. As a result, only 38% of the grounds -11338 km2- are available for the installation of solar energy systems (IDAE-AICIA-CENER-IDOM, 2011). Based on the available area and the solar resource, the potential can be estimated for the three types of systems: solar photovoltaic, solar thermal and solar thermoelectric.

4.5.1. Solar photovoltaic

Photovoltaic (PV) solar modules can be divided in monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon solar cells, thin-film technologies and third generation concepts. Both roof-mounted and ground-mounted systems have been considered for PV systems.

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Monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon solar cells account for nearly 30% and 60% of the market, respectively. Meanwhile, thin-film technologies such as CdTe account for almost the rest of the market. Consequently, the average efficiency of the solar cells has been calculated as the weighted average of the maximum efficiencies that are currently available for each technology: 25% for monocrystalline; 20.4% for polycrystalline; and 11% for thin film (Green et al, 2014). This choice can be explained because the trend of improving efficiency means that future systems will have a better efficiency than the current average ones. The resulting average efficiency for PV cells is 20.8%. In addition to the efficiency of the solar cells, a performance ratio of 0.75 is used to account for the losses in the rest of the PV system (i.e. inverter, cables, batteries…). Therefore, the net efficiency of a PV system would be 15.6%.

4.5.2. Solar thermal

Solar thermal (ST) also comprises a set of three different technologies: evacuated tube collector, flat plate collector, and unglazed water collector. Given the great inefficiencies and losses associated with the transport of heat, only roofs have been considered as feasible surface for these systems. Following an analogous analysis as the one developed for PV, the market share of these technologies is 78%, 18% and 4%, respectively (SolarServer, 2012). The efficiency of these collectors depends on the difference between the inlet fluid temperature and the ambient temperature, so an estimation needs to be done: 45% for evacuated tube; 60% for glazed flat plate; and 20% for unglazed flat plate (adapted from a spreadsheet by Jan Erik Nielsen, Solar Keymark, European Solar Thermal Industry Federation (ESTIF), 2006). The resulting efficiency for ST modules is 46.7%. Again, a performance ratio of 0.9 is then used to account for inefficiencies in the ST system, which makes the net efficiency 42%. This number is in line with the 44.5% (being the average incident energy equal to 1600 kWh/m2y) which can be estimated from the yearly energy generation by province shown in Table 4.9.

Table 4.9 Energy generated per m2 every year, including losses (IDAE-Eclareon-Creara,

2011: 37).

Province Energy generated per year, including losses (kWh/m2y)

A Coruña 632

Lugo 635

Ourense 821

Pontevedra 763

4.5.3. Solar thermoelectric

Parabolic trough collectors, linear Fresnel reflectors, parabolic dishes and central tower are the four main types of systems associated with solar thermoelectric energy. Large areas are often required by these technologies, so only ground-mounted systems will be considered. The market share trends may be misleading in the changing environment created by solar thermoelectric energy being a rather immature technology. Therefore, the net solar-to-electricity efficiency of parabolic trough collectors (13.4%), linear Fresnel reflectors (10.1%),

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parabolic dishes (21.4%), and central tower (14.96%) (IDAE-AICIA-CENER-IDOM, 2011) can be averaged in order to obtain a guiding net efficiency value of 15%.

4.5.4. Solar energy potentials

A summary of the solar energy potentials can be found in Table 4.10. The resulting electricity/heat generation is calculated as the average incident energy, times the built-up/ground area, times the net efficiency of the system.

Table 4.10. Summary of solar energy potentials.

Solar PV Solar Thermal Solar Thermoelectric

Average incident energy – optimal

(PJ/km2y)

6

6

6

Built-up Area (km2)

221

221 -

Ground Area (km2)

11338 -

11338

Net Solar-to-electricity efficiency

(%)

15.6

-

15

Net Solar-to-heat efficiency (%)

-

42

-

Electricity generation on roofs (PJe/y)

198

-

-

Electricity generation on ground (PJe/y)

10200

-

9800

Heat generation (PJth/y)

-

536

-

It must be noted that some of these potentials are mutually exclusive. In other words, if one of these technologies reached its full potential (i.e. used the entire available area), the other technologies couldn’t be placed in that area. Furthermore, not all of the available land can be used for solar thermoelectric power plants, since they require large –and often flat – plots. For instance, the estimated potential for thermoelectric power is three times higher than the one published by IDAE-AICIA-CENER-IDOM (2011).

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4.6. Wind energy

The considerable wind resource present in the region of Galicia can be seen as a prolongation of the Western European coast in European wind atlases. Figure 4.6 shows how the wind potential of NW Galicia is not only among the greatest in Spain, but it is also comparable to those found in the coasts of other leading European countries in wind energy implementation such as Denmark, the United Kingdom and Germany.

Figure 4.7. Onshore wind energy map of Europe (Risø National Laboratory).

The Spanish Institute for Energy Saving and Diversification (IDAE) has elaborated a more comprehensive map where the effect of the complex orography on the wind resource can be identified. Based on this map, as depicted in Figure 4.8, both the onshore and the offshore wind energy potentials can be assessed. A number of Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) and Special Protection Areas (SPAs) have been identified in Galicia by Natura 2000, a well-known network of nature protection areas. Therefore, the final viability of a wind farm will have to be assessed by means of a comprehensive environmental impact assessments developed for each particular site.

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Figure 4.8. Wind energy map of Galicia (IDAE).

4.6.1. Onshore wind energy

It can be seen in the previous figure the way in which hill effect speeds up the wind in many mountaintops of the interior of Galicia, generating a great amount of scattered placements with a great potential in the region. However, the large potential found in these singular locations is overshadowed by the vast wind resource of the N-NW coasts of A Coruña and the N coast of Lugo. The exposure of these locations to marine storms and the existence of cliffs create a vast amount of opportunities for wind energy generation. An analysis of the wind energy resource in Spain (IDAE, 2011b) was done by running a simulation in Meteosim Truewind. The percentage of the area of mainland Galicia with an average wind speed above 6 m/s at 80 meters of height was found to be 35%, the largest in Spain, after applying technical and environmental filters. Using 4 MW/km2 as a bench mark, an estimated onshore wind energy potential of 41.5 GW is found (IDAE, 2011b). A range of 2300-2500 net equivalent hours was considered by IDAE, which has been proved to be in line with the actual 2430 equivalent hours for wind energy in Galicia in 2012 (based on data from INEGA, 2014). As a consequence, the potential electricity generation amounts to 342-378 PJ/year.

4.6.2. Offshore wind energy

While the wind energy map of Galicia depicted in Figure 4.7 suggests that a tremendous amount of electricity could be generated by means of offshore wind farms, technical and environmental factors affect this potential in a stronger way than in other European countries. Particularly, the bathymetry of the Galician coast hinders the development of offshore wind turbines due to the steepness of the seabed. Unlike the offshore wind farms mushrooming in the relatively shallow waters over the continental shelf in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, with an average depth of 22.4 meters and found 30 km offshore (EWEA, 2014), a project developed in the coast of Galicia would have to deal with depths well above 50 meters within 10 km from the coast in most locations.

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Figure 4.9. Bathymetry of the Galician coast (Raia, 2015).

According to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA, 2013), “current commercial substructures are economically limited to maximum water depths of 40m to 50m”. This is equivalent to a maximum distance from shore of 3 to 7 km in the majority of the Galician coast, which prevents reaching the areas of highest wind power density found in Figure 4.8. The future development of economically viable floating foundations for offshore wind farms could release the potential of these areas. Furthermore, a strategic environmental study of the Spanish coast developed by IDAE (2009) for the installation of offshore wind farms has divided the Galician littoral in three areas, as shown in Figure 4.10. The red areas are known as the “exclusion zones” and no wind farms are allowed in them. The environmental effects of such a system would have to be carefully assessed in the case of yellow areas, where the construction of offshore wind farms is subject to conditions. Finally, green areas are “suitable zones” for this technology due to its reduced environmental impact.

Figure 4.10. Classification of offshore wind areas in Galicia (IDAE, 2009).

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A very rough estimation of the available area, based on a maximum depth of 50 meters, ignoring maritime routes and removing “exclusion zones” has resulted in 500 km2. While it is nearly impossible to use grid configurations in Galician onshore wind farms, this type of set up could achieve 7-9 MW/km2, which results in a potential of 3.5-4.5 GW. Using a value of 3500-4000 equivalent hours (Díaz Rivas, 2014), a value in the order of magnitude of 54 PJ/year is the potential of the offshore wind energy in Galicia, although most of it falls under the yellow area in the classification. Again, the improvement of floating foundations for wind turbines could greatly increase the potentially useful wind resource in this region.

4.7. Urban Solid Residues (USR)

This Sub-section refers to the incineration of Urban Solid Residues (USR) with the objective of producing electricity. At the moment, USR are transferred from garbage collection trucks to bigger long-distance ones in 37 plants distributed all over the region (SOGAMA, 2016). Then, they are transported to a central location in Cerceda, where they are converted into energy. Currently, 1.2 Mt of USR are produced every year in Galicia, a number which is expected to remain steady until 2017 and to start a slow decline afterwards (GDR, 2011). Taking into account that the current power plant has a capacity of 0.5-0.55 Mt of residues per year and 24 MW of power (SOGAMA, 2016a), it can be deduced that 55 MWe could be installed in total. Assuming that the current capacity factor for USR in Galicia (0.8) can be extrapolated into the future, USR would have a total potential of 1.4 PJ/y.

Table 4.12. Summary of USR potential.

Urban Solid Residues (USR)

Average energy potential (PJ/y)

1.4

4.8. Energy efficiency

Energy efficiency encompasses all kind of measures which aim to deliver the same services for less energy input. In this sub-section, five different sectors will be analysed: appliances and equipment, lighting, sustainable building, transport, and industrial activities. A summary of the potential savings will be included at the end.

4.8.1. Appliances and equipment

Fridges, televisions, glass-ceramic hobs, washing machines, electric ovens, microwaves and other appliances account for a yearly electricity demand of 2560 GWh in Galicia, 64% of the households’ electricity demand (INEGA, 2014 and IDAE, 2011c). Since 2010, the Energy Efficiency Index (EEI) is used as an energy labelling system in the European Union. Different criteria are used for each appliance, which makes the selection of a single estimate a challenging task. According to a report developed by the UK’s Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC, 2014), the electricity demand of an A+++ rated refrigerator is approximately 70% lower than a C-rated one. Likewise, 30% of the energy

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demand can be saved by substituting a C-rated by a A+++ rated washing machine (DECC, 2014). According to a different analysis featured in the Global Energy Assessment, present and foreseen cutting-edge technologies can reduce the energy consumption of appliances, ICT, and other electricity-using equipment in buildings by 65% by 2020 (GEA, 2012). All in all, approximately a 55% decrease in their energy consumption is considered to be achievable by changing the most common appliances in Spain –energy label E (Certicalia, 2015)- with A+++ rated appliances. Considering the contribution of appliances and home equipment to a household’s electricity demand, 33.6% of it can be reduced by using more energy efficient appliances and equipment.

4.8.2. Lighting

Lighting represents 18% of the total electricity demand in Spanish households (IDAE, 2011c). In other words, 720 GWh of electricity are used annually in Galicia to power household lighting systems. Significant energy savings can be made by substituting the current systems – especially incandescent lights – by LED lighting and other low-consumption lighting systems. Currently, light bulbs of 200W are the most common light bulbs used for outdoor lighting. These can be substituted by 40W LED lampposts. Similarly, a 12W LED light bulb can replace a 75W incandescent light bulb (84% energy saved) or a 17W CFL (30% energy saved). According to IDAE (2011c), 80% of the electricity demand caused by lighting can be reduced. Daylighting is the use of windows and skylights to bring sunlight into a building, reducing the need for artificial lighting during daylight hours. This can be achieved without causing heating or cooling problems by using highly energy-efficient windows, as well as advances in lighting design (DOE, 2015). Turning off lights when not needed is especially important for incandescent lights, since these are the most inefficient type of lighting. An exception can be made with compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs); since they are highly efficient and their operating life is more affected by the number of times they are switched on and off (DOE, 2015a), CFLs should be left on if the user is planning to switch it on again within the next 15 minutes. Daylighting and turning off lights when not needed, in combination with LED lighting, have been estimated to save an additional 10% of the original energy demand, leading to a total potential saving of 90% of the lighting electricity demand, or 16.2% of a household’s electricity consumption.

4.8.3. Sustainable building

A 40-50% reduction of energy consumption can be achieved in new buildings where energy efficiency principles are taken into account. Furthermore, it is also possible to achieve zero-energy designs when renewable energy systems are implemented. However, the burst of the bubble in the Spanish construction sector in 2009 has resulted in a 97% decrease in the construction of new buildings when comparing 2014 (1200) to 2008 (over 45000) (IGE, 2016). This fact, combined with the stagnation of the Galician population, means that the effect of energy efficiency measures on new buildings can be neglected when looking at the overall effect of the Galician energy demand. Therefore, the focus will be put on retrofitting existing buildings.

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The Global Energy Assessment identifies potential savings of up to 46% in global building heating and cooling energy use by 2030 in their “Energy efficiency” scenario (GEA, 2012) thanks to retrofitting. The energy efficiency of buildings can be achieved by improving thermal isolation in walls, balconies, thermal bridges and windows (e.g. using double glazing); as well as by implementing energy efficient thermal systems (e.g. domestic heat water systems). As a consequence, heating and cooling demands can be significantly reduced in winter and summer periods, respectively. All in all, a decrease of 46% in the energy demand of buildings will be used as the achievable potential for this master’s thesis.

4.8.4. Transport

As it can be seen in Figure 4.11, road transport accounts for 80% of the energy consumption of the Spanish transportation sector. Therefore, this sub-section will be focused on freight and passenger transport by road.

Figure 4.11. Energy consumption by transport mode (based on IDAE, 2011c).

The International Energy Agency published in 2011 a report on transport energy efficiency where the potential of four different measures was estimated. Based on this report (Kojima & Ryan, 2010), energy consumption could be reduced by 12% with fuel efficiency standards for Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDVs) and by 20-30% with fuel efficiency standards for Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs). Additionally, implementing fuel-efficient tyres (4-5%) and eco-driving (10% in the medium term) could reduce the energy consumption of both segments of vehicles. In the figure below, the relative contribution of LDVs (car and motorcycle) and HDVs (lorry, van, bus and coach) to the total transport energy demand can be seen.

Table 4.12. Energy consumption of road transport modes (based on IDAE, 2011c).

2% 4%

14%

80%

Railway Maritime Air Road

49%

48%

3% 0%

Freight (Lorry & Van) Car Bus & Coach Motorcycles

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Although it has not been estimated in this master’s thesis, changing the social behaviour towards transportation could potentially lead to much larger energy savings than technical measures. For example, policies and campaigns promoting the shared use of vehicles could double the urban occupation of cars from the current average of 1.2 person per vehicle. Furthermore, promoting public transport and the use of bicycles would also have a very significant impact in the energy demand of the transportation sector. Finally, it must be noted that a large-scale switch to highly-efficient electric vehicles could greatly increase the overall efficiency of the transportation sector.

4.8.5. Industrial activities

According to the Global Energy Assessment, industrial activities achieved a 30% improvement

in energy efficiency from 1990 to 2007 (2.1%/y). In the mid-term, energy efficiency

improvement potentials in the manufacturing industry for industrialized countries are in the

range of 20% for petrochemicals (Repsol), 35% for alumina production (Alcoa), 25% for pulp

and paper (Ence), and 20% for other industrial activities (GEA, 2012).

Since some of these industries are the largest consumers in Galicia, great energy savings could be achieved. For example, just by reducing 35% of the 14 PJ/y of consumed by Alcoa San Cibrao (La Opinión, 2016), 18 PJ/y could be saved. Overall, the energy saving potential in the Galician industries amounts to 24% for electricity demand, and 20% for heat demand. These values have been calculated by weighing the contribution of Repsol, Alcoa, Ence, and the rest of the industries to the total electricity and heat demands, and by applying the aforementioned energy efficiency improvement potentials.

Table 4.13. Summary of energy efficiency potentials for electricity.

Energy demand Potential savings in specific area/sector

Potential savings over the total electricity demand

Households 49.8 % 7.4%

Industry 24% 12%

Total - 19.4%

Table 4.14. Summary of energy efficiency potentials for heat.

Energy demand Potential savings in specific area/sector

Potential savings over the total heat demand

Households 46% 29.3%

Industry 20% 7%

Total - 36.3%

Table 4.13. Summary of energy efficiency potentials for transportation fuels.

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Energy demand

Potential savings in specific

area/sector

Potential savings over the total transportation fuels

demand

Road vehicles 20% 18.6%

4.9. Energy storage

The assessment of the energy storage potential in Galicia will be limited to electricity storage,

as it is the one more commonly associated with the intermittency of renewable energy

technologies such as solar photovoltaics and wind energy.

When dealing with biomass, the heat can be produced when needed, being the feedstock

itself stored, instead of the heat generated by its combustion. A well-designed geothermal

system should not extract heat from the reservoir at a much higher rate than its natural renewal

capabilities. Under this condition, it is reasonable to assume that the soil and the rocks

themselves are heat storing units for the Earth’s geothermal energy. Furthermore, geothermal

systems can be used as heat and cold storage systems (HCS), effectively using the subsoil

as a sink during the summer months, and as a source of heat during the winter. Finally, solar

thermal panels are usually installed with their own matching buffer tanks.

Coming back to the electricity storage, there are six main technologies that can be used for different purposes: flywheel, supercapacitor, battery, hydrogen, pneumatic, and pumped storage (Hadjipaschalis et al, 2009). These can be classified in fast response storage (very short-term), short-term storage, and seasonal storage systems.

4.9.1. Fast response storage

Flywheels are rotating mechanical devices that store kinetic energy at operating speeds of 6,000-50,000 rpm. They are usually coupled with an electric motor which accelerates the flywheel’s rotating mass when charging, and retrieves the energy from the flywheel by decelerating it. The main advantage of these systems are the high charge and discharge rates for many cycles (105 to 107) at high efficiencies (90%). However, they are expensive and have a high self-discharge ratio, losing at least 20% of the stored capacity per hour (Hadjipaschalis et al, 2009). As a consequence, these systems can only be effectively used as fast response storage, providing reliable standby power and assuring a quality power supply. Super- and ultra-capacitors are very high surface area capacitors with very high power densities (10,000 W/kg) and very low energy densities (5 Wh/kg). On the one hand, their cycle life goes beyond 500,000 cycles at 100% depth of discharge (Hadjipaschalis et al, 2009) at 85-98% efficiency. On the other hand, their nominal voltage is limited to 1 V, they are costly, and self-discharge rates reach 14% of nominal energy per month. All in all, supercapacitors can provide effective short duration peak power boost, and short term peak power back up for uninterruptible power supply (UPS) applications (Hadjipaschalis et al, 2009). Since neither flywheels nor supercapacitors have extreme space requirements, they can be installed almost anywhere. As long as they are used for its purpose –fast response storage-, there should be no physical limitation to deploy as many of these systems as needed in Galicia.

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4.9.2. Short-term electricity storage

While there are two mature and developed technologies to store hydrogen -hydrogen pressurization and hydrogen adsorption in metal hydrides- the production of hydrogen remains a problem in the short- to mid-term. The process of converting electricity to hydrogen (electrolysis), storing the hydrogen (compression/adsorption), and re-converting hydrogen to electricity (fuel cells) has an approximate efficiency of 20% (Van Mierlo et al, 2006). Furthermore, associated inversions such as electrolysers for its production and large-scale deployment of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) are required to make the most of large-scale production of hydrogen. As a consequence, hydrogen storage is not considered as a reasonable option for this region and time horizon. Pumped storage consists of moving water between reservoirs at different elevations in order to store and produce hydroelectricity to supply high peak demands (Hadjipaschalis et al, 2009). Iberdrola is planning to build the 750 MW pumped storage facility of Santa Cristina, while Endesa’s projects include a 600 MW one near As Pontes. This would yield a combined pumped storage capacity of 6 PJ/y with a capacity factor of 14%, which is taken as the minimum potential. By assuming that all the currently available hydropower stations can incorporate lower-level reservoirs for pumped storage with the same rated capacity and the same capacity factor of 15%, the upper limit of the potential for pumped storage in Galicia would be 32 PJ/y by 2030. Batteries are electrochemical systems consisting of an anode, a cathode, an electrolyte, and separators for electrical insulation. Currently, lead-acid batteries, lithium-based batteries, and nickel-based batteries are the most widely used. The focus will be put on the first two types. Lead-acid batteries offer energy densities of 30 Wh/kg and power densities around 180 W/kg. They are relatively cheap, easy to install, relatively easy to maintain, and their self-discharge rate is low, at 2% of rated capacity per month (Hadjipaschalis et al, 2009. However, their cycle life often remains below 1800 charge/discharge cycles (5-15 years of operation) and it can be greatly reduced by deep discharges and high operating temperatures. In this case, the storage potential of lead-acid batteries in Galicia is only limited by economic considerations, as utility-scale lead-acid battery systems are a currently available and mature technology. Lithium-ion batteries have energy densities ranging from 80 to 150 Wh/kg and power densities between 50 and 250 W/kg (Hadjipaschalis et al, 2009), delivering power at 3.7 V and energy efficiencies above 90%.Their self-discharge rate is low (5% per month) and lifetime can reach 1500 cycles when the operating temperatures are not high. Lithium-ion batteries are mostly used in relatively small-scale applications such as mobile phones, laptops, and electric vehicles and, as a consequence, their potential in Galicia will be assessed in the context of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) energy storage. Considering that 1.46 million cars were using the Galician roads in 2012 (INE, 2016), and extrapolating the average annual growth rate of 1.72%, the number of cars in Galicia would reach 2 million by 2030. Assuming that all of these vehicles were electric by 2030 and equivalent to a Renault Zoe (65.6 kW, 22 kWh battery), and assuming that just 10% of the vehicles would be connected to the grid at any given time, lithium-ion batteries could potentially provide 1.3 GW to the grid at any given time Galicia, or 41 PJ/y.

4.9.3. Seasonal electricity storage

Seasonal balancing can only be done by storing technologies with minimum self-discharge rates. This can be done either with small-scale liquid-piston technologies, which still face technical difficulties, or with large-scale compressed air energy storage (CAES). Since the first type is still trying to find its way to commercial state, the focus will be put on CAES.

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Underground geologic formations such as aquifers, salt caverns and rock caverns can be used to store off-peak power taken from the grid by pressurizing air to about 75 bar. When power wants to be retrieved from these very large-scale facilities, the air is extracted from the cavern, mixed with small quantities of oil, and burnt in a combustor to generate electricity in a turbine (Hadjipaschalis et al, 2009). CAES can be used to store energy for more than a year, and have typical capacities of around 50-300 MW. The Galician potential for this type of storage has not been estimated, as there are no salt mines and there is no information regarding the potential aquifers and rock caverns suitable for pressurized air in the region.

4.10. Overview of renewable energy potentials

In this sub-section, an overview of the potential of renewable energy systems and energy

efficiency measures in Galicia will be presented.

4.10.1. Electricity generation potential

Figure 4.13 shows how solar, wave, or wind energy could single-handedly provide the electricity consumed by Galicia. Furthermore, it has been found that while hydroelectric can still play a major role in the Galician energy mix, its real potential is several orders of magnitude below solar and wind energy. Finally, energy efficiency measures across different sectors could reduce the electricity demand by 23%.

Figure 4.13. Overview of electricity production potentials.

4.10.2. Heat generation potential

Based on the information presented in Figure 4.14, it is easy to see that solar thermal, geothermal, and biomass energy could individually provide all the heat needed in the region. Energy efficiency could reduce the heat demand in the region by 36%.

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Figure 4.14. Overview of heat production potentials.

Significant losses are associated with long-distance transport of heat, making this type of energy geographically dependent. In order to better assess the real match between heat demand and heat generation potential, two maps have been created where Galicia is divided in its 53 individual regions (comarcas). The heat demand has been calculated based on the geographical distribution of the population and the main industries. Meanwhile, the heat generation potential of solar and geothermal energy is based on Figures 4.1 and 4.4, and the potential of biomass pellets has been evenly distributed, as it can be easily transported.

Figure 4.15. Overview of heat demand by region.

Given that solar thermal energy has the potential to cover 5.6 times the heat demand of the region, the focus will only be put on the 8 regions with the highest heat demand, assuming that the more modest heat demand of the other regions could be covered by either of them.

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Figure 4.16. Percentage of regional heat demand that could be potentially covered by solar

thermal energy.

Considering that logs and pellets can be transported virtually anywhere, the heat generation potential from biomass is not included in a map either. In addition to what is shown in Figure 4.14, it is interesting to highlight that even if the entire feedstock of autochthonous wood was used for paper pulp production, agricultural residues and manure would be enough to cover the current heat demand in Galicia.

4.10.3. Fuel generation potential

Microalgae are the only feedstock with a yield per hectare which is high enough to displace fossil fuels currently used in transport. However, as it was already discussed in sub-section 4.1, both technical and economic challenges need to be solved before biodiesel and bioethanol from microalgae can be produced reliably at a large-scale. Consequently, biodiesel and bioethanol from locally produced biomass are considered, with the results shown in Figure 4.17: none of these options can displace the current demand for diesel and gasolines. Finally, energy efficiency measures would be able to save almost 20% of the current fuel consumption in the region, making this option the most attractive and achievable.

Figure 4.17. Overview of fuel production potentials.

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5. Future visions

5.1. Morphological analysis

Since this master’s thesis deals with the regional transition towards a sustainable energy system, the following six parameters have been selected to carry out the General Morphological Analysis using the Zwicky box: Key governance aspects, key supply side technologies, change in energy demand, key demand side technologies, key actors, and key infrastructure aspects. The spectrum of values associated with each parameter represent possible and relevant states that each parameter can assume. Table 5.1 contains the complete morphological box of this problem. Many of these parameters have been based on the aspects defined by Timothy Foxon (2013) when defining the key aspects of the transition pathways for a low carbon electricity future in the UK. Overall, this allows for a systematic structuring approach to multi-dimensional problems.

Table 5.1. Morphological box.

Key governance

aspects

Key supply side

technologiesEnergy demand

Key demand side

technologiesKey actors

Key infrastructure

aspects

Market logic Biomass Increase Energy efficiencyLarge energy

companiesSmart Grids

Government logic Geothermal Stable Electric Vehicles Central governmentTransmission grid

reinforcement

Civil society logic Hydroelectric DecreaseFossil Fuels for

transportation

Energy Service

Companies (ESCOs)

Charging

infrastructure for

Evs

OceanBiofuels for

transportation

Users and local

communities

Centralized

generation

Solar - RoofsHydrogen for

transportationNGOs

Distributed

generation

Solar - GroundPublic transport &

bicycles

Distribution grid

reinforcement

Wind onshore

Wind offshore

Coal and

natural gas

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Key governance aspects: Foxon (2013) defined three core transition pathways to a

UK low carbon electricity system based on three competing logics: a market-led

pathway, a government-led pathway, and a civil society-led pathway. These competing

logics of a transition have also been used to define the possible key governance

aspects of the future development of the Galician energy system.

Key supply side technologies: the defining technologies of a scenario’s energy mix

are highlighted with this dimension.

Energy demand: delta in the total energy demand of Galicia, including electricity, heat,

and transportation, when compared to the 2012 situation.

Key demand side technologies: this parameter takes into account the defining

technologies of the energy system’s demand side, focusing on transportation.

Key actors: this dimension traces the most relevant stakeholders in the future

developments of the energy system in Galicia.

Key infrastructure aspects: the most significant changes in development of the

energy infrastructure are described within this parameter.

The second step in the General Morphological Analysis process is the Cross-Consistency Assessment (CCA). The objective of this step is to reduce the total set of possible configurations in the aforementioned problem space -17010, in this case- to a smaller set of internally consistent configurations representing a solution space (Ritchey, 1998). The CCA is based on the existence of numerous pairs of conditions (or values) in the Zwicky box which are mutually incompatible. Therefore, any configuration containing a pair of these mutually incompatible conditions will also be internally inconsistent (Ritchey, 1998). Consequently, a cross-impact matrix of this problem’s morphological field can be developed. The result can be found in Figure B.1 of the Appendix. Every pair of conditions have been checked to judge whether they can coexist. A red box is assigned to those pairs of conditions which are mutually inconsistent (whether they are very unlikely, contradictory, or just normatively constrained). When no evident inconsistency is found for a given pair, its possible existence is tagged with blue box. An effective choice of scenarios will ultimately come down to achieving consistency between the selected values of each parameter or dimension. Ideally, a Business As Usual Scenario should be compared to a rich variety of desirable futures in order to assess the robustness of the resulting interventions and be able to make stronger short-term recommendations. However, the time limitations associated with this master’s thesis have resulted in only a Business As Usual Scenario and a Desired Vision being delimited, following the guidelines shown in tables 5.2 and 5.6.

5.2. Business As Usual Scenario

The Business As Usual (BAU) scenario depicts an energy system shaped by historical trends. In this context of BAU development, Galicia fails to develop a unified vision for the future and to establish a clear regulatory framework. As a consequence, global and climate concerns are pushed in the background, and only immediate issues regarding the energy system are

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addressed. Galicia continues historical trends in the residential, industrial, commercial, and transportation sectors, while the energy generation patterns in the region are still dictated by the European Union and Spain. This pathway is characterized by a steady growth in the economy, which allows more people to have a comfortable lifestyle: more and bigger appliances at home, more vehicle kilometres travelled, and more leisure activities. While a general feeling of concern towards climate change keeps arising in the public opinion, this is not translated into personal energy choices and behaviour, as people feel entitled to consume what they can afford. Despite some of the incentives provided to renewable energies in the decade of the 2000’s, the development of the Galician energy system is largely determined by market mechanisms. It can be expected that the current energy mix (dominated by centralized energy sources such as fossil fuels, biomass, hydroelectricity, and onshore wind energy) will still be representative by 2030 under these BAU conditions. Likewise, the energy demand will likely keep increasing in the next decade and a half, with internal combustion vehicles defining the road transportation sector and reinforcements of the transmission grid being the most significant infrastructure changes in the mid-term. Large energy companies such as Gas Natural Fenosa or Iberdrola are expected to remain as the key actors under this context.

Table 5.2. Morphological box of the BAU Scenario.

Key governance

aspects

Key supply side

technologiesEnergy demand

Key demand side


Key infrastructure

aspects

Market-led Biomass Increase Energy efficiencyLarge energy


Government-led Geothermal Stable Electric Vehicles Central governmentTransmission grid

reinforcement

Civil society-led Hydroelectric DecreaseFossil Fuels for

transportation

Energy Service

Companies (ESCOs)

Charging

infrastructure for

Evs

OceanBiofuels for

transportation

Users and local

communities

Centralized

generation


transportationNGOs

Distributed

generation


bicycles

Distribution grid

reinforcement

Wind onshore

Wind offshore

Fossil fuels

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Besides pure historical trends, realistic adjustments based on previous energy technology deployment rates and reasonable assumptions (e.g. by outweighing the relevance of the most recent trends, the ongoing European trends, and by taking into account the production limits of natural gas and coal power plants) are included in the BAU scenario.

Figure 5.1. Modelling process of the BAU scenario.

The modelling process, as explained in Figure 5.1:

1. First, future demand of electricity, heat, and fuels is calculated based on historical

trends.

2. At the same time, the evolution of the available energy is based on historical trends

and adapted to the proposed evolution of energy demand. The available energy is

divided in electricity, heat, and fuels.

3. The energy exported can be readily calculated as the difference between the available

energy and the energy demand for each of the three categories.

4. The transformation efficiencies (from primary energy to available energy) are

considered for each energy source, with no temporal evolution taken into account.

5. Then, the primary energy is calculated as the available energy divided by the

transformation efficiency for each energy source.

6. Local primary energy sources are identified.

7. The rest of the primary energy is imported.


The average annual growth rates used for the three periods of time considered (2013-2018, 2019-2024, and 2025-2030) are shown in Table 5.3.

Table 5.3. Average annual growth rates for the energy demand in the BAU scenario.

2000-18 2019-24 2025-30

2.8 1.5 1.2

0.9 -0.2 -0.6

Fuels for transport 1.7 0.9 0.4

Heat

Electricity

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The available data from the Galician energy balances of 2000-2012 has been extrapolated unntil 2018, considering that the continuation of these trends is a reasonable assumption. For the periods 2019-2024 and 2025-2030, the forecasts of the PRIMES model for the European Union have been used, as explained in the report “EU energy trends to 2030” (Capros et al, 2010). According to Capros (2014), the PRIMES model is a partial equilibrium model for the European Union energy system developed by and maintained at the National Technical University of Athens, E3M-Laboratory led by Prof. Capros. It covers a medium to long-term horizon. While the electricity consumption peaked in 2007 and has remained fairly constant during the financial crisis, the 3% annual growth rate of the Spanish economy in 2015 is expected to continue at least in the near future. This growth in the living standards suggests that it is indeed reasonable to assume that the electricity demand will increase by an average of 2.8% per annum until 2018, partly recovering pre-economic crisis levels. However, European trends of consumption should catch up sooner than later, with energy efficiency measures moderating the electricity demand. Heat demand’s average growth rate of 0.9% per annum between 2000 and 2012 has been used to forecast the expected heat consumption until 2018. Again, improvements in wall insulation and other energy efficiency measures should allow Galicia to catch up with Europe and start curbing its heat demand during the 2020s. Spikes in the heat demand can be expected during harsh winters due to a larger demand of residential heating. There are no major changes regarding the technologies of choice in the transportation sector, and alternative ways of transport remain limited and aren’t always competitively priced. Variations in the price of oil and fuel efficiency have historically conditioned the demand of fuels for transportation. However, when averaging the annual growth of this parameter in Galicia over a 12-year period (1.73% p.a.), its correlation with the growth in the number of cars (1.72% p.a. (IGE, 2016a)) and lorries and vans (1.74% p.a. (IGE, 2016a)) becomes apparent, since they represent 78% of the energy demand in the transportation sector. After 2018, the tendency towards more compact cars and the stabilization of the number of personal vehicles in Galicia allow for a steady decrease in the fuel consumption in the BAU scenario, in agreement with European trends. All in all, Figure 5.2 shows the impact of the aforementioned growth rates. This forecast suggests that the total energy demand in Galicia will reach 325 PJ/y in 2030, a 12% increase when compared to the 289 PJ consumed in the region in 2015.

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Figure 5.2. Galician energy demand in the BAU scenario.

5.2.2. Available energy

The forecasted annual growth rates for the available energy until 2018 have been extrapolated from the Galician energy balances 2000-12, but some of these values have been moderated due to the recent introduction in the market of certain technologies causing misleading values (e.g. 30% average annual growth rate for solar energy or 33% for natural gas). For instance, we can conclude that the production of electricity from wind turbines in Galicia has had an average growth of 17.4% per annum between 2000 and 2012, based on data published in the Galician Energy Balances. However, virtually no new wind turbines have been installed in the region since 2012, when feed-in tariffs stopped being awarded by the Spanish Government. Therefore, it would be unwise to project a 17.4% annual growth for wind energy until 2030. For the other periods (2019-2024 and 2025-2030), two sources have been used: the BP Energy Outlook (BP, 2016), and the aforementioned PRIMES model. Small modifications have been added as well to allow for a more gradual change in the case of petroleum products and solar PV. All in all, Table 5.4 shows the average annual growth rates used for the available energy forecasts.

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Table 5.4. Average annual growth rates for the available energy in the BAU scenario.

The available energy forecasted for the period 2013-2030 using this model can be seen in Figures 5.3, 5.4, and 5.5 for electricity, heat, and fuels, respectively.

2013-2018 2019-2024 2025-2030

Imports 2.0 0 -2

Petroleum products -2.9 -1.45 -0.1466

Coal 1.7 -2 -2

Natural gas 4.0 0.808 0.808

Hydro 2.0 0.89 0.89

Minihydro 2.0 0.89 0.89

Wind 0.0 5.5 7.72

Biomass 5.0 -0.2 -0.6

Biogas 4.0 -0.2 -0.6

USR -5.2 -2 0

Other residues -4.8 0 0

Solar 30.1 17 7.72

Total electricity 2.8 1.5 1.2

Petroleum products -0.3 -0.1466 -0.62

Natural gas 2.5 0.808 0.808

Biomass 2.5 -0.2 -0.6

Residues & Others -5.0 -5 -4

Total heat 0.9 -0.2 -0.6

Natural gas 4.7 0.808 0.808

Diesel oil 1.8 1 0.65

Fuel oil 2.5 1 0

Gasolines -3.4 -3.4 -3.4

Kerosenes 0.3 0.4 0.5

LPG 6.0 2 -2

Coke 4.5 2.35 2

Coal 0.0 0 0

Biofuels 5.0 2 0

Biomass 0.0 0 0

Solar thermal 0.0 0 0

Residues 0.0 0 0

Other 2.4 0 -2

Total fuels 1.7 0.9 0.4

BAU

Average annual growth (%)

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Figure 5.3. Available electricity by source in the BAU scenario.

Figure 5.4. Available heat by source in the BAU scenario.

Figure 5.5. Available fuels by source in the BAU scenario.

5.2.3. Energy exports

Finally, the forecasted exports for each type of energy are calculated by subtracting the Galician energy demand to the available energy. As a result, Figure 5.6 shows that Galicia could keep increasing its exporting capacity of petroleum products and natural gas to other regions and countries.

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Figure 5.6. Galician energy exports in the BAU scenario.

5.2.4. Energy production and imports

Moving on to the supply side of the energy balance, the transformation efficiency provided by previous Galician Energy Balances was used to forecast the local production and the necessary imports. Since 2008, when Galician lignite was finally considered as economically and technically unattractive, the local primary energy has been dominated by renewable energy sources such as biomass, wind energy, or hydropower. Building on this trend, 23% of the primary energy of the BAU scenario would be produced locally with fossil-fuel-free sources by 2030.

Figure 5.7. Local primary energy in the BAU scenario.

However, 85% of the primary energy and 99% of the imported primary energy would still come from fossil fuels (petroleum, natural gas, and coal) by 2030 in the BAU scenario. It was assumed that two thirds of the available biofuels are produced locally, while the other 33% is imported. Furthermore, it is interesting to realise that no electricity imports would be needed besides marginal quantities resulting from eventual power balances in the national grid.

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Figure 5.8. Imported primary energy in the BAU scenario.

In order to complete the energy balance, the transformation losses must also be taken into account. Considering the criteria used by the Galician Energy Balances, these losses are minimal (0-2%) for systems producing electricity directly (e.g. hydro, wind, solar), while they can be significant for coal (63%), natural gas (17%), or USR (68%). When the magnitude of all these energy sources is included, the model predictions remain consistent with the current situation: most of the (absolute) energy transformation losses are associated to imported energy sources, while the “high efficiency” and smaller contribution of the local primary energy sources result in the unequal distribution shown in Figure 5.9.

Figure 5.9. Galician energy transformation losses in the BAU scenario.

5.2.5. Summary BAU Scenario by 2030

In Section 3, it was observed that Galicia is currently far from self-sufficient. Unsurprisingly, the Business As Usual Scenario would not solve this issue, with the percentage of the energy needs of this region being fulfilled by local energy sources rising from 16% in 2012 to 20% in 2030.

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Figure 5.10. Primary energy in Galicia 2030BAU by origin.

The breakdown of energy demand by type (electricity, heat, and transportation fuels) remains fairly steady in the BAU Scenario. When compared to the situation in 2012 as depicted in Section 3, the most significant changes are the relative (and absolute) growth of electricity, which increases from 27% to 32% of the total energy demand, and the decrease of heat demand, going from 35% in 2012 to just 29% in 2030.

Figure 5.11. Energy consumption in Galicia 2030BAU by type.

Regarding electricity, the total electricity demand grows in the BAU Scenario by almost 28%, from 74 PJ in 2012 to 103 PJ by 2030. Furthermore, significant changes can be seen in the supply side. The share of renewable energy sources grows by 11 percentage points to reach 57%, with wind energy (41%) and hydropower (12%) still being the main renewable energy contributors to the Galician electricity mix in the BAU Scenario by 2030. The relative contribution of coal and natural gas to the electricity mix is consequently reduced in this BAU Scenario by 16% and 4%, respectively, to reach the values seen in Figure 5.12. In absolute terms,

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Figure 5.12. Electricity generation in Galicia 2030BAU by source.

The absolute value of heat demand is reduced after an initial increase in the BAU Scenario, resulting in both the start (2012) and end (2030BAU) points hovering 96 PJ/year. The relative contribution of the different sources, as shown in Figure 5.13, remains fairly steady as well, with fossil fuels still covering over 60% of the heat demand in the region.

Figure 5.13. Heat generation in Galicia 2030BAU by source.

Transportation fuels remain largely dominated by diesel oil, with the absolute demand from this sector growing by 12% in this BAU Scenario. The tendency towards compact vehicles powered by diesel is also represented in the shrinking share of gasoline. Natural gas suffers the greatest change, growing steadily in the BAU scenario, and being used mostly by urban buses and taxis. Fuel oil and kerosene continue supplying a significant part of maritime and air transport, respectively, with both of them growing at a slow pace. While the relative contribution of diesel oil shrinks by 13 percentage points, its absolute demand will keep growing in this Scenario.

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Figure 5.14. Fuels used for transportation in Galicia 2030BAU by type.

5.3. Desired vision

The desired future vision is based on two set of criteria:

a) Opinions collected during the interviews carried out with relevant stakeholders in

Galicia, including:

Extensive electrification of the energy system, with a widespread use of

electric vehicles.

Widespread use of renewable energy systems, paying special attention to

the great potential of hydropower, wind, biomass, and solar energy in the

region.

Sufficient energy storage capacity must be installed to deal with the

intermittency inherent to some renewable energy systems.

Energy efficiency must play a pivotal role in the transition towards a

sustainable energy system.

Change in the social behaviour towards energy should be promoted:

increased use of public transport, shared vehicles, and bicycles.

Distributed energy sources, such as solar, should be included in the mix.

b) Other goals:

By 2030, a 50% cut in the energy demand from 2012 levels should be

achieved.

Self-sufficiency. While electricity exchanges with the Spanish and Portuguese

grids are expected for balancing and quality purposes, these connections

should be used as little as possible.

The energy demand must be met with locally available renewable energy

sources by 2030. Two exceptions have been made:

i. Maritime and air transport keep using fuel oil and kerosene,

respectively.

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ii. Repsol’s refinery in A Coruña keeps operating at least until 2030, but

only the necessary fuel oil and kerosene will be used in Galicia. The

rest of its products will be exported.

A rather qualitative comparison of the different renewable energy sources from the economic, environmental, technical, and social perspectives is presented in Table 5.5. The proposed desirable energy mix will be based on a qualitative assessment of the criteria presented in this table, paying special attention to their potential, state of development, and geographical availability (i.e. whether a certain renewable energy source is evenly distributed over the Galician territory or highly focused on a small region).

Table 5.5. Comparison of the renewable energy sources that could be used in the energy

mix of the Desired Vision.

Considering these sets of criteria, the defining parameters of one of the possible desirable futures can be marked in the morphological box. In this case, the governance aspects of the Desired Vision are not purely defined market, but rather by government-led initiatives and mandates based on sustainability objects, and by civil society-led initiatives and behavioural changes based on environmental concerns. Relatively mature renewable energy technologies such as hydroelectricity, biomass, roof-mounted solar PV panels, and onshore wind farms will form the core of the energy supply mix in the Desired Vision, leading to a hybrid generation system where centralized and distributed energy systems will be used. Energy efficiency and behavioural changes such as an increased use of public transport and bicycles will lead to a decrease in the energy demand. The electrification of the road transportation system will also drive the energy demand down, but infrastructural issues such as the construction of charging points for EVs and the reinforcement of the distribution grid will need to be tackled. Additionally, the coordination of an increasingly complex energy system will benefit from the control and monitoring capabilities facilitated by smart grids.

Biomass Geothermal Hydroelectric Ocean Solar - Roofs Solar - Ground Wind onshore Wind offshore Energy efficiency

Cap-ex Moderate Moderate Very high Moderate Low Moderate Moderate High Low

Op-ex High Moderate Low High Very low Low Low Moderate Very low

Local Moderate-High Moderate Very high Moderate Low-Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Very low

CO2 emissions Moderate-High Low Moderate Very low Very low Very low Very low Very low Very low

WasteHigh (but can be

reused)Very low Very low Very low Very low Very low Very low Very low Very low

Potential 2030

[PJ/y]490 81 36 125 536 10000 360 54 (exc. Floating) 85

State of

developmentConsolidated Moderate Consolidated Developing Moderate Moderate Consolidated Developing Consolidated

Geographic

availabilityHigh Moderate Moderate Low High High High Low High

Reliability High Very high Very high Moderate-high High High High Moderate-high Very high

Scalability Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Very high High High High Moderate

Durability High High Very high High High High High High Moderate

Predictability Very high Very high High High Low Low Very low Very low High

Safety High High High High High High High High High

User-friendlinessLow-High (e.g.

wood / biodiesel)Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low High

Acceptance Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High Moderate Moderate Moderate Very high

Eco

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Table 5.6. Morphological box of the Desired Vision.

In this sub-section, a series of waterfall charts will illustrate the forecasted energy demand in 2030 from the BAU scenario (2030BAU), and the energy demand in the desired future vision (2030DV), as well as the relative contribution of different measures to achieve the desired vision. In particular, it will be easy to see whether (technical) energy efficiency measures are enough to achieve the 50% cut in the energy demand, or if changes in the social behaviour are also needed. First, the energy demand will be broken down into heat, transport, and electricity. Subsequently, the energy supplies associated with the BAU scenario and the Desired Vision will be compared. Finally, a similar comparison will be made for the energy imports and exports, in order to check that the goals of the desired vision are met.

Key governance

aspects

Key supply side

technologies

Change in energy

demand

Key demand side


Key infrastructure

aspects

Market-led Biomass Increase Energy efficiencyLarge energy


Government-led Geothermal Stable Electric Vehicles Central governmentTransmission grid

reinforcement

Civil society-led Hydroelectric DecreaseFossil Fuels for

transportation

Energy Service

Companies (ESCOs)

Charging

infrastructure for

Evs

OceanBiofuels for

transportation

Users and local

communities

Centralized

generation


transportationNGOs

Distributed

generation


bicycles

Distribution grid

reinforcement

Wind onshore

Wind offshore

Coal and

natural gas

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The heat, transport, and electricity demand will be analysed. As it was previously mentioned, the comparison will include the last available data (2012), the forecast for the BAU scenario (2030BAU), the desired vision (2030DV), and the technical and social changes required to reach the desired vision. Heat demand By studying Figure 5.15, it is easy to spot that the two main goals of the desired vision are not even close to being met in the BAU scenario, as explained in 5.1.5: virtually no reduction of the heat demand is achieved, and 62% of it is covered with fossil fuels.

Figure 5.15. Heat in the desired vision.

On the one hand, not only must the full potential of energy efficiency be exploited in order to come closer to the objectives of the DV, but a change in social behaviour is needed to reduce an extra 14% of the heat demand in the region by 2030. On the other hand, sustainably produced electricity and solar thermal energy cover 40% of the heat consumption in the DV, substituting natural gas and petroleum products. While biomass and solar thermal panels would be ideal solutions for single-family houses in rural areas and suburbs, radiators and similar electric devices would become a more practical source of space heating in urban areas. Additionally, industries could cover their low- and medium-temperature heating requirements with biomass, leaving electric arc furnaces for high-temperature applications. Electrification of transport Figure 5.16 clearly shows that the BAU demand in the transportation sector would lead to a situation which is far from ideal: 90% of the energy would still come from fossil fuels, and the

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32% increase in the demand compared to 2012 is very far away from the objectives set for the Desired Vision.

Figure 5.16. Transportation fuels in the desired vision.

Despite the significant gap between the BAU scenario and the 50% cut in energy demand, 20% of the energy consumption in road transport can be saved by improving fuel-efficiency standards, eco-driving, and the use of fuel-efficient tires, as explained in section 4.8.4. More importantly, the higher efficiency of electric vehicles when compared to internal combustion vehicles – 90% vs 25%- can reduce the energy demand of road transportation by 70%. This is, to transport the same amount of passengers/cargo over the same distance, the energy associated with the electricity required by the EV would be 3.5 times lower than the energy associated with the diesel/gasoline/LPG required by an ICV (Amores et al, 2016). Even though switching from ICVs to EVs and implementing energy efficiency measures would be sufficient to cut the energy demand by more than 50%, the effects of car-pooling are also considered. It is assumed that these measures could achieve a 30% increase in the average occupancy of personal vehicles, from 1.2 to 1.56 person/vehicle. Consequently, roughly a 30% decrease in the energy demand of LDV –which account for 38% of the energy consumption of road transport modes (IDAE, 2011c) - can be expected. Kerosene and fuel oil demands will remain unchanged, in agreement with the boundary conditions selected at the beginning of this section. Meanwhile, 100% of the resulting energy demand for the road transportation sector by 2030 will be covered by electricity. Electricity demand In spite of renewable energy sources covering almost half of the BAU electricity demand by 2030, significant efforts will be needed to turn around the upwards trend of electricity consumption in Galicia and meet the goals of the desired vision.

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Figure 5.17. Electricity in the desired vision.

Again, the different energy efficiency potentials discussed in section 4.8 are fully exploited in the path towards the desired vision. By implementing energy efficiency measures across industries, the service sector, and households, 42 PJ/y could be saved in the DV compared to the BAU scenario by 2030. However, technical changes alone are not enough in this case: an even larger amount of electricity -54 PJ/y more- would need to be saved by other means, namely changing social behaviour towards energy. A breakdown of the electricity demand in Galicia shows that 49% of it comes from industry, 23% from services, and 22% corresponds to households. If and how modifying the social habits would make this electricity saving possible will be analysed in the next section of this master’s thesis. One of the most interesting conclusions of this analysis is that over 69% of the overall energy savings required can be achieved without substantially modifying the habits and behaviour of people: implementing energy efficiency standards and using renewable energy sources instead of fossil fuels are two changes with very little impact on the final user, besides for those who own distributed energy sources such as photovoltaic or solar thermal systems. The third technical measure -switching from ICVs to EVs- should be easily accepted by society once two conditions are met: EVs are made economically attractive, and a reliable and quick charging infrastructure is built. 5.3.2. Energy production and storage The primary energy produced is compared in Figure 5.18 for the current situation (i.e. the last data available, 2012), the BAU Scenario and the Desired Vision. On the one hand, it is necessary to increase the Galician primary energy production by two thirds even while the overall demand is cut by half in order to meet the demand with locally available renewable energy sources. On the other hand, imported primary energy is reduced to the fuel oil and kerosene requirements of the maritime and air transportation sectors, respectively.

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Figure 5.18. Primary energy in 2012, 2030 in a Business As Usual Scenario, and 2030 in

the Desired Vision (the diagonal lines in the Desired Vision indicate that the oil crude is

transformed and exported, rather than consumed in Galicia).

The necessary installed capacity is calculated in the by applying technology-specific capacity factors to the breakdown of the primary energy production. While this would be enough for a “net” supply/demand balance, a high penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind and solar -which cover 75% of the electricity demand in the desired future vision- means that an additional 25-30% capacity has to be installed as support (Amores et al, 2016). Traditional backup power options include energy storage, demand side management (DSM), interconnections with other networks, or natural gas power plants. The focus will be put on energy storage, combining power balancing solutions with short-term and seasonal storage.

Figure 5.19. Imported primary energy in the desired vision.

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All in all, the necessary installed capacity required by the desired vision is summarized in Figure 5.19. It is not surprising to see that technologies such as solar PV require a high number of installed capacity relative to the amount of energy that they produce, as a result of their low capacity factors. 5.3.3. Imports and exports In this sub-section, the impact of achieving self-sufficiency in the desired future vision is analysed. While 80% of the primary energy is imported in the BAU scenario, this number drops to 0% in the desired future vision. The oil crude which can be seen in Figure 5.20 corresponds to the full-capacity operation of Repsol’s refinery in A Coruña.

Figure 5.20. Imported primary energy in the desired vision.

Similarly, Figure 5.21 includes the export of all petroleum products refined in Galicia except for the kerosene and fuel oil necessary to cover the local demand of air and maritime traffic.

Figure 5.21. Energy exports in the desired vision.

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6. Technical and spatial interventions In this section, the Desired Vision will be elaborated and its implementation will be discussed. It will be structured around the six major areas of change: Renewable energy systems; Energy efficiency measures; Transportation; Infrastructure; Energy storage; and Social behaviour. To design the implementation timelines in the best possible way, the areas affecting energy demand will be discussed first (Transportation and Energy efficiency measures). Then, the implementation of new energy sources and the abandonment of fossil fuels in the energy supply will be examined (Renewable energy sources) in order to fit the changing demand needs. After a brief summary of the evolution of the energy supply and demand, the necessary evolution in the last two technical areas (Infrastructure and Energy storage) will be explored. Finally, the required social changes and the functions of the different stakeholders in the implementation process will be proposed. For each one of the five technical areas, the most important questions will be answered. First, what needs to be implemented (i.e. the physical devices and facilities associated with the energy transition) will be analysed. Secondly, the time planning of the transition will be considered, or when these changes should be implemented. Finally, where to place these facilities and systems will be discussed.

6.1. Transportation

While air and maritime transport would remain the same, a huge transformation would be needed in road transport. Most importantly, all vehicles (light and heavy duty) would have to be powered by electricity before 2030. By assuming that the combined average annual growth rate of 1.73% in the last 16 years is representative of the future growth, 2.52 million vehicles are expected to be registered in Galicia by 2030. As a consequence, achieving the Desired Vision would require the implementation of almost 2 million electric cars, over 300 thousand electric trucks and vans, 6 thousand electric buses, and almost 200 thousand electric motorbikes. In addition to the widespread use of electric vehicles itself, this could be done in an innovative way by taking advantage of new technologies such as mobile internet and autonomous driving. These new technologies allow for a smart way of transport where private property of the vehicles would be changed by shared personal vehicles that anyone could use, empowering the users to boundless driving. In other words, the limited options of public transport are changed by complete freedom of movement, and maintenance and parking issues could be forgotten. With the average vehicle age in the European Union approaching 10 years and 43% of the Spanish cars being 10 years or older (ACEA, 2016), it can be safely assumed that the average lifespan of cars in Galicia could be around 15 years. Therefore, 1/15th of the vehicle fleet is renewed every year, assuming that the age of cars is evenly distributed (there are as many 1 year old cars as 2 years old cars, and so on). In order to achieve the Desired Vision, some extra replacements should be done before their expected 15-year lifespan, something that can potentially be done in 2030. It must be noted that a simplistic approach has been selected in this implementation timeline: in reality, a more progressive implementation scheme would take place, with the typical S-curve showing up. In other words, few electric vehicles would be bought during the first years, and a significant number of ICVs would still be bought around 2020. As a consequence, this would result in 10 year old ICVs being scrapped or sold to other countries by 2030 in order to achieve the Desired Vision.

96

Figure 6.1. Proposed implementation timeline of the transformation of the road

transportation sector in the Desired Vision.

As it was previously mentioned, the higher efficiency of electric vehicles means that the effect of such a replacement in the energy demand of the road transportation sector is significantly more pronounced. Figure 6.2 shows this unequal distribution: while the abandonment of 1/15th of internal combustion vehicles every year is associated with a reduction of 15 PJ in the energy demand of this sector, the substitution –electric vehicles- adds less than 5 PJ per year.

Figure 6.2. Yearly changes in the energy demand of the road transportation sector

according to the proposed implementation timeline.

As a consequence, the energy demand in the road transportation sector steadily decreases with the implementation of electric vehicles. Figure 6.3 summarizes this trend.

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Figure 6.3. Energy demand in the transportation sector (excluding air and maritime) for the

proposed implementation timeline.

6.2. Energy efficiency measures

The energy efficiency measures covered in Section 4.8 regarding industry, service, appliances, and lighting, could reduce the annual electricity consumption in Galicia by 34 PJ once implemented. Since this amount of energy could be saved every year, and the substitution of old appliances by new ones could be done in a shorter timeframe, the implementation of these energy efficiency measures is gradually achieved over the 7-year period ending in 2023 in the proposed implementation timeline of the Desired Vision. The effect of these energy efficiency measures in the Galician electricity demand are shown in Figure 6.4.

Figure 6.4. Changes in electricity demand in the Desired Vision due to energy efficiency

measures in lighting, appliances and equipment, and industrial services, for the proposed

implementation timeline. It excludes transportation.

Additionally, 19 PJth worth of heat could be saved every year by implementing energy efficiency improvements in buildings and industrial CHP units. Among other things, these energy efficiency measures include the improvement of thermal isolation in buildings, and the

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substitution of current thermal systems by more efficient ones. Again, it is assumed that the implementation of these energy efficiency measures is gradually achieved over the 7-year period starting in 2017, as presented in Figure 6.5. While only 1% of the Galician households have air conditioning systems, almost 60% of these households (960,000) have some sort of heating (INE, 2016a). According to the Instituto Galego de Estadística, only 25% of these heating systems are powered by electricity, which means that 720,000 heating systems powered by fossil fuels will have to be replaced within seven years. All in all, over 100,000 houses would have to be adapted to electric heating every year in the region, leading to a significant effort which could nonetheless provide interesting opportunities to generate jobs in a country with such a high unemployment rate.

Figure 6.5. Changes in heat demand in the Desired Vision due to energy efficiency

measures in sustainable building and industrial activities, for the proposed implementation

timeline.

In addition to the energy savings achieved by substituting ICVs by EVs covered in the previous sub-section, 25 PJ/y can be saved in the road transportation sector by implementing stricter fuel efficiency standards to heavy duty (12%) and light duty (25%) vehicles, using fuel-efficient tyres (5%), and eco-driving (10%). By gradually implementing these potentials up to 2030, Figure 6.3 can be adapted with these energy savings achieved by energy efficiency measures, resulting in the evolution of the energy demand of the transportation sector exhibited in Figure 6.6.

Figure 6.6. Total energy demand in the transportation sector (including air and maritime) for

the proposed implementation timeline, including energy efficiency measures.

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With the implementation of electric vehicles and energy efficiency measures, the largest effects on the energy demand have been covered. Subsequently, the transformation of the supply side of the energy system will be analysed, and an adequate implementation timeline will be proposed for the required renewable energy systems.

6.3. Renewable energy systems

The primary energy that would need to be produced in Galicia by 2030 in the Desired Vision was determined in section 5.2.2. The result of that analysis and its comparison with the current energy system can be seen in Figure 6.7, showing that significant investments need to be done in wind and solar energy systems. Meanwhile, the contribution of biomass will still be important, although the changes needed are more modest. In line with the saturation of the most suitable locations for hydropower discussed in Section 4, the growth of this energy source will be marginal.

Figure 6.7. Galician primary energy. Comparison between the current situation and the

Desired Vision.

The capacity that needs to be installed can now be calculated by applying the capacity factor

of each technology to the primary energy needs, following the equation shown below. The

results are shown in Table 6.1.

𝐼𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝑀𝑊) = 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 (

𝑀𝑊ℎ𝑦 )

𝐶𝐹 (−) ∗ 8760 (ℎ𝑦)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2015 2030DV (PJ)

Pri

mar

y en

ergy

[P

J]

Hydropower Minihydro Biomass

Biogas Biofuels USR

Other residues Wind Sun (PV+Thermal)

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Table 6.1. Necessary installed capacity by 2030 in the Desired Vision.

Capacity factor (-)

Primary energy 2030DV (PJ/y)

Installed capacity 2030DV (MW)

Hydropower 0.15 16.1 3625

Minihydro 0.23 2.7 369

Biomass 0.75 48.6 2055

Biogas 0.25 0.8 106

Biofuels 0.75 0 0

USR 0.80 1.2 47

Other residues 0.14 0.4 101

Wind 0.28 60.5 6855*

Solar 0.11 41.5 11974*

TOTAL 172.9 25131

Some adjustments need to be made to these calculations. Firstly (*), considering that wind and solar are intermittent energy sources and that they would comprise 60% of the primary energy by 2030 in the Desired Vision, a safety factor –an extra 20%- will be used on the installed capacity of these two technologies to assure that extreme fluctuations of energy production can be dealt more easily with the storage systems. Secondly, it must be taken into account that some of the current facilities will need to be replaced before 2030, while others have a much longer lifetime. This is largely dependent on the type of technology, with hydropower dams lasting 50-100 years and wind turbines having an estimated life-span of 20 years. With these considerations in mind, the outcome of what renewable energy systems should be installed and when are shown next, taking into account each different technology. Since the largest new source of energy demand will be electric vehicles, the implementation of new energy sources and the abandonment of old ones should be appropriately timed with the implementation of a highly-electrified transportation sector. Subsequently, how to implement all of these technologies will be discussed in the backcasting analysis, in Section 7.

Wind energy

The Desired Vision requires 8.13 GW of wind turbines to be functioning in Galicia by 2030. While over 3 GW had already been installed by 2012, their 20 year life-span means that most of them will have to be replaced before 2030. Consequently, it can be assumed that approximately 8 GW of wind power needs to be installed between 2016 and 2030. In this case, given that the best locations have been used to locate the current wind parks, the effect of repowering is remarkable. With just 16% of the wind parks using wind turbines of 2 MW or more, and over 60% of the wind parks being powered by small wind turbines of less than 1 MW, there is a significant opportunity to repower the Galician wind parks. In fact, 99% of the required 8.13 GW of wind power could be installed by placing 2 MW wind turbines instead of each and every one of the current ones (4016 in total, excluding mini-wind turbines). By doing this, the additional environmental impact is completely minimized, while taking advantage of the best locations and therefore ensuring the best capacity factors. Figure

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6.8 depicts the yearly changes in wind energy capacity due to the dismantling of old wind turbines and the installation of new ones.

Figure 6.8. Yearly installed and dismantled wind energy capacity according to the proposed

implementation timeline of the Desired Vision.

The evolution of the total wind energy capacity installed in Galicia is represented in Figure 6.9, showing how the substitution of the old turbines by larger ones results in an overall increase of the cumulative wind power in Galicia. As a result, the 8 GW required in the Desired Vision would be achieved by 2030.

Figure 6.9. Cumulative installed wind energy capacity according to the proposed


Repowering the current wind farms means that no new locations are needed. Besides taking advantage of the placements with the best capacity factors, repowering has the advantage of limiting the visual and environmental impacts of wind energy. As a consequence, the “Not-in-my-backyard” (NIMBY) effect is limited as well, facilitating the transition towards a sustainable energy system while avoiding social opposition or rejection. Therefore, the spatial distribution of the current and future wind parks is essentially the same, and it can be found in Figure 6.10.

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Figure 6.10. Location of the Galician wind parks in the Desired Vision. Since repowering

alone would cover the necessary installed capacity, they coincide with the current ones.

Source: Asociación Empresarial Eólica (2016).

Hydropower and minihydro

Out of the 3625 MW of large-scale and 369 MW of small-scale hydropower needed by 2030, more than 80% was already in place in 2012 (INEGA, 2014). Considering the 50-100 years of expected life-span for these facilities, it can be assumed that only the remaining capacity needs to be installed between 2016 and 2030: 513 MW of hydropower and 66 MW of minihydro. On the one hand, many large-scale hydropower plants in Galicia surpass 200 MW of rated power. However, it is also reasonable to assume that the best locations have already been taken, so new locations providing smaller capacities should be found. All in all, an illustrative number of eight 65 MW plants would need to be installed before 2030. Considering their long development and planning times, it is assumed that they will start to produce electricity by 2027-2029, as represented in Figure 6.11.

103

Figure 6.11. Yearly installed hydropower capacity according to the proposed implementation

timeline of the Desired Vision.

The effect of the implementation of these eight new hydropower facilities in the cumulative installed hydropower capacity can be seen in Figure 6.12.

Figure 6.12. Cumulative installed hydropower capacity according to the proposed


On the other hand, most of the latest minihydro power plants installed in Galicia in the 2000’s have a rated power of 5-10 MW. Consequently, it is safe to assume that around ten new 7 MW locations should be found so the aforementioned 66 MW can be supplied on time. Considering a development time of around 5 years, the first minihydro power plants would be implemented by 2022.

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Figure 6.13. Yearly installed minihydro capacity according to the proposed implementation


Figure 6.14 displays the changes achieved in the cumulative installed minihydro capacity in Galicia with the progressive installation of the aforementioned 66 MW.

Figure 6.14. Cumulative installed minihydro capacity according to the proposed


Biomass and biogas

The energy produced from these sources can be divided on three types: electricity produced in CHP units, heat produced in CHP units (i.e. industrial use), and direct thermal use (i.e. direct combustion in households). The production of electricity from biogas has to be ramped up from an installed capacity of 11 MW in 2012 to 106 MW by 2030. Nine new biogas power plants similar to the current one (10.5 MW) would be needed. Figure 6.15 shows the proposed implementation timeline, with each one of these new facilities being installed every year from 2022 to 2030.

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Figure 6.15. Yearly installed biogas capacity according to the proposed implementation


The result of these interventions is the progressive increase of the Galician installed capacity of biogas from 11 MW to 105 MW, as required by the Desired Vision and shown in Figure 6.16.

Figure 6.16. Cumulative installed biogas capacity according to the proposed implementation


The capacity of CHP plants using biomass has to be raised by 421 MWe and 300 MWth, affecting mostly the heat generation of some industrial activities. The thermal use of biomass does not necessarily involve sophisticated machinery, as it can refer to logs being directly burnt at home. Nevertheless, the amount of biomass necessary for this would be reduced by 1.3 PJ, the equivalent of 60 MW less. Since sufficient time should be allowed for companies to accommodate these changes in their CHP facilities, the implementation of biomass in this area is delayed until the last six years of the timeline, as depicted in Figure 6.16.

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Figure 6.16. Yearly installed biomass capacity according to the proposed implementation


As a consequence, the required increase in electricity and heat production in CHP facilities and the decrease in biomass use for direct thermal use are only seen between 2025 and 2030, as shown in Figure 6.18.

Figure 6.18. Cumulative installed biomass capacity according to the proposed


USR and other residues

By extending the life-span of the current facility producing energy from residues in Cerceda and installing a second USR plant with the same capacity, 24 MW, enough energy would be produced from these sources. To ensure the social changes required in terms of recycling and residue collection are achieved, it is proposed that the implementation of the second USR should take place in 2028, as shown in Figure 6.19.

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Figure 6.19. Yearly installed USR capacity according to the proposed implementation


Figure 6.20 presents the resulting effect on the installed USR capacity according to the proposed timeline of the Desired Vision.

Figure 6.20. Cumulative installed USR capacity according to the proposed implementation


Taking into account that many USR have to travel over a hundred kilometres from the South of Galicia to Cerceda, it would make sense for the second plant to be located in the south of Galicia, to accommodate the production of residues in this area. However, it must be checked beforehand that the current and the potential amount of residues could supply both plants in the mid-term.

Abandonment of fossil fuels

The transition towards a sustainable energy system implies not only the installation of renewable energy sources, but also the abandonment or dismantling process of the current facilities generating energy from fossil fuels. This transition can be divided in three categories: abandonment of large-scale power plants used to produce electricity, dismantling of heat-generating facilities running on fossil fuels, and the substitution of fossil fuels by electricity in

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the transportation sector. The last one has already been covered in Sub-section 6.1, while the other two will be detailed below. On the one hand, there are three relatively big power plants producing electricity from fossil fuels in Galicia, as shown in Table 6.2.

Table 6.2. Power plants producing electricity from fossil fuels in Galicia.

Capacity [MWe] Year Fuel

Meirama 557 1980 Coal

As Pontes (1-4) 1400 1976-79 Coal

As Pontes (5) 856 2008 Natural gas / Diesel

Sabón 391 2008 Natural gas / Diesel

Since Meirama and groups 1-4 of As Pontes are the approaching their fourth decade and run on coal, “dirtier” than natural gas, these should be the first ones to be dismantled. Nevertheless, their large-scale makes necessary that such process is carried out in a progressive way. As a consequence, Figure 6.21 shows the proposed implementation timeline, where the As Pontes power plant is dismantled one group at a time from 2017 to 2023, Meirama stops producing energy by 2026, and Sabón and As Pontes 5 are retired by 2030, right on time to achieve the Desired Vision while allowing for a 22-year lifespan.

Figure 6.21. Yearly dismantled fossil fuel electricity capacity according to the proposed


On the other hand, the production of heat from fossil fuels is done at a smaller scale. Therefore, the substitution of these facilities by others running on electricity or biomass can be done more progressively, following the implementation timeline proposed in Figure 6.22.

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Figure 6.22. Yearly dismantled fossil fuel heat capacity according to the proposed


Besides dismantling these facilities according to the implementation timelines proposed in Figures 6.21 and 6.22, their utilization factor of these facilities should be adapted to the requirements of the energy system. In other words, the proposed implementation timeline will result in excessive capacity being in place during some periods. In order to achieve a sustainable energy system, renewable energy systems would be prioritized over these power plants running on fossil fuels, with the latter being used for balancing purposes or when needed until they reach their time to stop working altogether.

Solar energy

Solar energy embodies solar photovoltaic (producing electricity) and solar thermal (generating heat). By 2012, only 10 MW of photovoltaic systems had been installed in Galicia, in addition to solar thermal panels with a combined power of 7 MW. All in all, this is three orders of magnitude smaller than the scale required by 2030. Roofs will be the preferred location of the solar modules and collectors, as the need for new artificial areas and the transmission losses are reduced. Nevertheless, the economic advantage provided by large-scale solar plants is vanished by using this strategy. On the one hand, 4113 MW of new solar thermal system would have to be installed in order to generate its share of heat: 12 PJth per year. According to the analysis of the solar energy potentials performed in Section 4.5, this could be achieved by covering 2.2% of the available roof area with over 3 million solar thermal collectors of 1.5 m2 each. On the other hand, 10256 MWp of brand new photovoltaic panels should be installed as well. Combined, they would be producing 140 PJe per year while covering 71% of the available roof area in Galicia. If 150 Wp photovoltaic modules were used, 68 million units would be needed. Additionally, other components, such as inverters, should be installed as well, increasing the price and the complexity of these systems. The proposed implementation timeline is represented in Figure 6.23. In this case, given the modular nature of solar energy systems and the relatively small development times needed, they have been selected as the perfect units to balance the mismatches created by the differences in energy supply and demand created by the chosen implementation timelines of

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electric vehicles and other renewable energy sources, as well as the abandonment schedules of the current facilities running on fossil fuels.

Figure 6.23. Yearly installed solar energy capacity according to the proposed


Subsequently, Figure 6.24 shows the final effect on the cumulative installed capacity of solar energy in the region between 2016 and 2030 according to the proposed implementation timeline of the Desired Vision.

Figure 6.24. Cumulative installed solar energy capacity according to the proposed


6.3. Summary: Supply, demand and potentials

Before diving into other areas of the implementation process, such as infrastructure and energy storage, a sub-section summarizing how the energy supply and demand would look like in the proposed implementation timeline of the Desired Vision. First, the evolution of the three types of energy demand (electricity, heat, and transportation fuels) can be seen in Figure 6.25. The effect of the linear implementation of electric vehicles, according to the proposed implementation timeline, becomes apparent in this figure: the

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transportation fuels needed quickly and progressively decrease, while the improvements in energy efficiency are counteracted by the additional electricity demand created by EVs, resulting in an overall increase of the electricity demand over time. At the same time, heat demand shrinks with energy efficiency and social behaviour improvements.

Figure 6.25. Galician energy demand according to the proposed implementation


Another important consequence of the transition towards a sustainable energy system in Galicia is the notable increase in the cumulative installed capacity of the region exhibited in Figure 6.26. While the overall energy demand is cut by half, the imported fossil fuels are substituted by local renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy.

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Figure 6.26. Cumulative installed capacity according to the proposed


When assessing the feasibility of the Desired Vision, it is useful to compare the proposed energy supply system with the renewable energy potentials calculated in Section 4. Consequently, this comparison will be performed for the three types of energy that have been considered: electricity, heat, and transportation fuels. Firstly, the comparison between the proposed implementation of renewable electricity sources in the Desired Vision is shown in Figure 6.27. It is easy to spot that the large installed capacities of solar PV and wind energy observed in Figure 6.26 are only a fraction of the total potential. Furthermore, the full potential of energy efficiency has been exploited.

Figure 6.27. Comparison between the potential and the proposed (installed)

electricity production in the Desired Vision by 2030.

Regarding the heat generation in the Desired Vision by 2030, the amount of biomass and solar thermal energy required are still far away from their full potential. Again, energy efficiency

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plays a vital role by providing a significant decrease in the required installed heat generation capacity when it is fully exploited.

Figure 6.28. Comparison between the potential and the proposed (installed) heat

production in the Desired Vision by 2030.

Finally, the electrification of the transportation sectors leads to a disregard for the biodiesel and bioethanol generation potential in Galicia. Nevertheless, energy efficiency measures play a significant role in decreasing the overall energy demand in this sector. Additionally, it should be noted that the efficiency improvement which results from switching from ICVs to EVs, which is not included in Figure 6.29, is the most important contribution to achieving a sustainable transportation sector in the Desired Vision.

Figure 6.29. Comparison between the potential and the proposed (installed)

transportation fuels production in the Desired Vision by 2030.

In conclusion, the supply system proposed for the Desired Vision does not approach the total potentials calculated in Section 4, except for the design choice of taking full advantage of energy efficiency measures across all sectors. Therefore, it could be said that it is highly feasible to achieve the energy supply system proposed for the Desired Vision by 2030, at least from a technical point of view.

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6.4. Infrastructure

In order to accommodate the new energy system from both the supply and the demand sides, the infrastructure needs to be modified accordingly. Since the current gas stations are strategically located to provide the best service to vehicles, and in order to take advantage of the existing facilities such as restaurants and recreational areas, it would be appropriate to progressively implement quick-charging spots in the Galician gas stations, starting with cities and the most intensively used highways such as the AP-9 connecting A Coruña and Vigo.

Figure 6.30. Galician gas stations (El País, 2016).

The current gas stations can be seen in Figure 6.30, and the proposed implementation scheme for quick-charging stations for EVs means that the same locations could be used in 2030 to charge EVs instead of refuel ICVs. Installation of charging spots in public parking lots and streets While people living in family houses with garages could use their own electricity sockets to charge their electric vehicles overnight, residents of urban areas living in flats would face a bigger challenge to charge their vehicles. In order to solve this issue, three solutions are proposed. First, charging spots should be progressively implemented in public parking lots linked to the existing demand. Secondly, corporate parking lots where workers park their cars during their work day should adopt the same strategy. Finally, once EVs are widespread, charging spots should be installed in the streets as well, so vehicles can be charged anywhere. Increase capacity of power transmission and distribution lines

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The electrification of the road transportation sector and other services such as space heating means that the power infrastructure will have to be reinforced in both its transmission and distribution lines. The total installed electricity generation capacity will go from 18000 MW in 2015 to 32000 MW in 2030. While the electricity demand will not increase by nearly as much, the current transmission lines shown in Figure 6.31 will have to be reinforced to accommodate the new capacity needed for particularly sunny or windy days.

Figure 6.31. Galician transmission lines (REE, 2016).

Furthermore, the biggest modifications will have to be done on the distribution lines. The implementation of electric vehicles and charging spots will create a notable increase in urban electricity demand, requiring the installation of lines with larger capacities, new substations, and other power infrastructure associated with these.

6.5. Energy storage and other support capacity

The large-scale implementation of intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy requires an additional support capacity. According to a recent study about the energy transition in Spain developed by Deloitte (2016), approximately an extra 25% capacity should be added to the wind and solar implementation. As a consequence, an optimal storage portfolio with hydro pumped storage, demand-side management measures, vehicle-to-grid strategies, and the deployment of other short- and long-term storage technologies can be planned over time according to the forecasted needs. Interestingly, the decision to delay the dismantling process of the gas-fired power stations of As Pontes (5) and Sabón means that no extra support capacity needs to be added before 2020. Additionally, the proposed implementation timeline uses a conservative assumption that at least 10% of the deployed electric vehicles are connected to the grid at any given moment, and the standard socket (slow-)charging power of 6.4 kW can be used as vehicle-to-grid

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storage. Furthermore, it assumes that the planned hydro pumped storage facilities of As Pontes (600 MW) and Santa Cristina (750 MW) could be implemented by 2022 and 2026, respectively.

Figure 6.32. Necessary support capacity according to the proposed implementation


As shown in Figure 6.32, these three strategies cover the short- and mid-term storage needs of the Galician energy system almost until the abandonment of the gas-fired power plants, providing plenty of time for the price of other technologies to reach more affordable values. Nevertheless, very short-term storage systems for balancing purposes should be installed. An in-depth analysis should be performed to decide whether the decision to oversize wind and solar PV capacities is enough to avoid installing seasonal storage systems.

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7. Backcasting analysis The backcasting analysis will be presented in this section. With this in mind, the changes that are necessary to transition from the current energy system to the Desired Vision proposed in Section 5 and elaborated in Section 6 will be analysed. The five major areas of change that defined the previous Section will structure the first part of this backcasting analysis: Sub-sections 7.1 to 7.5 will be clustered around Transportation, Energy efficiency measures, Renewable energy systems, Infrastructure, and Energy Storage. Technical, cultural and structural changes that are specific to each Sub-section will be included. Subsequently, an additional Sub-section will deal with the political, cultural, and social changes that are required at a more general level. Each of the aforementioned Sub-sections will be divided in ‘Necessary changes’ (What) and ‘How to achieve them and who should act’ (Who and How). In other words, the former will focus on the changes that are necessary to achieve the Desired Vision, while the latter will take into account the role of different stakeholders and the actions and measures that need/should be taken. Finally, the backcasting analysis will be connected to the transition pathways theory presented in Section 2.3, and a timeline with the implementation of the changes proposed in this Section will be included.

7.1. Transportation

7.1.1. Necessary changes

Electric vehicles Several new and advanced models of electric vehicles are going to be launched before 2020. By planning a gradual implementation of these vehicles in public fleets, a higher leverage in the negotiations could be achieved due to the large volume of the orders and the testing opportunity for auto-making companies. The technology itself, however, seems to be very close to its mature state and ready to be implemented at a mass scale. Improved electric trucks and buses One of the most challenging points of electrifying the road transportation system is the adaptation of heavy duty vehicles to this new paradigm. Since they typically require more powerful engines and are driven for longer distances at a time, larger battery systems are needed. In order for this transformation to be feasible, the capabilities of electric trucks, electric buses, and/or additional infrastructure (e.g. electric highways, overhead power cables, etc.) should be quickly improved. Immediate change of paradigm in the transportation sector Since the average lifetime of most vehicles is above the 14 remaining years until 2030, drastic measures need to be taken in this area. Any internal combustion vehicle deployed in the following years will probably have to be replaced by an electric vehicle before the end of its lifespan in order to achieve the Desired Vision. Therefore, the proposed implementation timeline implies that no new ICVs could be sold after 2016.

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Reducing the cultural value of private transport Improvements in the public transport system are worthless if people are not willing to use it. The cultural value of personal vehicles and its association with socioeconomic status or even freedom can sometimes be a barrier that needs to be overcome in order to increase the economic feasibility of a prospective improvement in the public transport system. Furthermore, an increasingly interconnected world and the quick growth of new technologies such as autonomous vehicles are enabling new ways of transport. Public fleets of autonomous cars, for example, would combine the benefits of public transport (i.e. affordability, lack of long-term investments, no maintenance…) with the advantages of private transport (i.e. unlimited destinations, convenience, privacy…). However, such a transportation paradigm would require a change in the social perception of the value of owning a personal vehicle. Improved intermodal public transport systems Getting more people to use the public transport not only depends on social behaviour, but also on covering the needs of the great majority of passengers. With that in mind, urban planning should carefully include better bus, train, and car intermodal systems. Autonomous vehicles The fleet of autonomous electric vehicles proposed for the Desired Vision requires an advanced and tested system of autonomous driving. Since this is a highly global technology being developed outside of Galicia, the need for this technology is deeply related to the political need of harnessing the global trends of innovation systems. Economies of scale of battery systems The electrification of the transportation system and the balancing capacity required in the Desired Vision can only be met by deploying a large amount of electric batteries. Gigafactory, the joint venture of Tesla and Panasonic in the area of electric batteries, is an example of the economies of scale that could be achieved by a large facility of this type in the region.

7.1.2. How to achieve them and who should act

Besides providing the necessary infrastructure to support an electrified transportation sector, a topic that will be covered in Sub-section 7.4, certain policies and directives should be implemented in order to achieve this transition away from internal combustion vehicles. This could be achieved following three strategies. The most straightforward measure that could be taken by the Galician government, once the decision to move away from ICVs has been taken, is to prohibit the sales of new internal combustion vehicles in a short timeframe. As it was seen in the previous Section and corroborated by the proposed implementation timeline for the road transportation sector, drastic measures need to be taken in this area. Since the average lifetime of most vehicles is above the 14 remaining years until 2030, any internal combustion vehicle deployed in the following years will probably have to be replaced by an electric vehicle before the end of its lifespan in order to achieve the Desired Vision. Therefore, no new ICVs should be sold after 2016. Furthermore, the Galician and/or Spanish governments could establish cross-subsidies aimed at providing a strong incentive for consumers to buy electric vehicles: by progressively raising

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the price of fossil fuels, EVs could be subsidized and a clear economic incentive would be provided for users to switch to EVs instead of extending the lifespan of diesel- and gasoline-powered cars. This is particularly important when considering that current EVs are more expensive than their equivalent ICVs, which means that only early adopters with sufficient purchasing power and a strong environmental consciousness are willing to buy EVs when no external economic incentives are provided. Finally, public fleets of autonomous electric vehicles could be implemented in the seven largest cities by municipal initiatives. Besides working as demonstration fleets of EVs, this means of transport combines the convenience of private cars (i.e. privacy, completely customizable journeys…) with the advantages of public transport (i.e. no maintenance, no time lost while parking…). Combined with an improved public transport system and a change in social behaviour towards the use of such non-private ways of transportation, the transition of the transportation sector could be achieved more easily. The increased bargaining power of institutional buyers when compared to individual ones (by buying larger volumes), and an attractive opportunity for EV manufacturers to showcase their products, should facilitate the implementation of this measure.

7.2. Energy efficiency measures

7.2.1. What

Improved insulation of buildings, energy efficiency standards, and other energy efficiency measures with reasonable payback times should be highly encouraged and adopted in the short-term in order to start curbing the energy demand. Environmentally-conscious users are needed in order to obtain the maximum effect out of these measures. Energy efficiency standards in vehicles If the energy efficiency savings considered in the Desired Vision are to be achieved, these standards should be tightened. However, given the highly international nature of the automotive industry, energy efficiency standards for vehicles are typically created at the European level. Energy efficient appliances and machinery The energy savings considered in the Desired Vision in household appliances and equipment, lighting, industrial appliances and machinery requires not only that final users replace their old equipment by new one, but also that they choose highly efficient items over more inexpensive ones. This can either be incentivised by the economic savings themselves, by public subsidies, or by the choices of environmentally-conscious buyers. Substitution of inefficient lighting systems Less efficient light bulbs used in public and private areas would have to be replaced with LED lights in order to achieve the target in lighting energy efficiency. It can be deduced from official data of the Galician Institute of Statistics that only 20% of households currently use LED systems (IGE, 2016b). By considering that the average household has 40 light bulbs, almost 40 million LED lamps would have to be installed in households alone. Promoting eco-friendly behaviours The success of many energy efficiency measures is largely dependent on the end-user. For instance, the ‘rebound effect’ can result in great differences between projected and real energy

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savings. Therefore, promoting eco-friendly behaviours should reduce the elasticity of energy demand, making users less likely to consume more energy even if the prices are lower or the devices and technologies are more efficient. Drastic increase in the rate of retrofit While the rate of retrofit of existing buildings is circa 1% (Neuhoff et al, 2011), the decrease in the energy demand of households considered in the Desired Vision would require this retrofit rate to drastically increase to almost 7%. On the one hand, this would require a large effort. On the other hand, it would help decrease the high unemployment rate in the most severely hit sector after the 2007 economic crisis and the burst of the Spanish property bubble. Electrification of the heating systems in households Over 100,000 households would have to replace their current fossil-fuel-powered heating systems by electric ones every year. As it was mentioned in the previous chapter, such an ambitious target would require a significant mobilization of workforce, which could nevertheless have a positive impact by decreasing the high unemployment rate in the Spanish construction industry.


Regulatory changes affecting energy efficiency standards need to be made across several sectors. Efficiency standards on vehicles, such as the mandatory implementation of fuel-efficient tyres, should be implemented at the European level, assuring that electric vehicles are designed to make the most out of their efficiency advantage when compared to internal combustion vehicles. Additionally, current energy labelling of appliances, equipment, and lights could be used by the Galician and/or the Spanish governments in order to incentivise the purchase of the most efficient equipment (e.g. energy label A+ or higher) rather than the more energy intensive one. On the one hand, the attractiveness of these highly efficient appliances and equipment could be reinforced by highlighting not only the environmental, but also the economic advantages for the user, associated with a reduced energy consumption. On the other hand, subsidies could be established in those cases where the reduction in energy demand alone is not enough to attract customers to the energy efficient alternatives. Two different strategies should be adopted in the building sector. On the one hand, new residential and commercial buildings should be required to be based in zero-energy designs in order to assure that the new housing stock will not perpetuate the energy-inefficient designs of the past. On the other hand, sufficient funds should be allocated to raise the rate of retrofit of existing buildings from less than 1% to around 7% per year. These subsidies should be aimed at both reducing the energy demand of existing buildings and also reducing the high rate of unemployment in the region and reactivating the Galician construction industry, which was severely hit by the 2007 economic crisis. The energy efficiency of industrial activities can be increased by setting realistic targets over 5-year periods. Much in the same way that RPI-X mechanisms incentivise monopolistic energy companies to reduce their costs, a target should be established for all large industrial energy consumers to reduce their energy demand by an appropriate percentage every 5 years. Furthermore, the implementation of minimum standards of energy efficiency, coupled with mandatory energy audits, should encourage small and large industrial consumers to reduce their energy demand. Financial support should also be provided to those switching their systems and machinery unnecessarily. However, extreme care should be taken in order to

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avoiding free-rider issues with those actors who were going to change their equipment even in the absence of subsidy schemes. Recycling should be promoted as a way of reducing the necessary feedstocks, costs, and life-cycle use of energy. Finally, load management strategies should be implemented in the power market. By setting pricing incentives (i.e. low electricity prices when the renewable energy production is high and the demand is low, and vice versa), the demand curve could be better adapted to the shape of the supply curve under high levels of penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy.

7.3. Renewable energy systems

7.3.1. What

Building social acceptance on sustainable energy technologies The very large scale (e.g. 2000 MW) of conventional power plants using coal or natural gas means that a small number of them are needed to cover the electricity needs of the entire region. Consequently, it is easy for them to go unnoticed in the daily lives of a large part of the population. Renewable energy systems, on the other hand, typically require a greater amount of devices and installations in order to produce the equivalent amount of energy. As a consequence, social acceptance on the visual impact of certain renewable energy systems, such as wind turbines, is a challenge that needs to be overcome in order to achieve a sustainable energy system by 2030. Discouraging the use of fossil fuels Whether this is done by removing any existing subsidy to fossil fuels or by taxing its use, a decision that will be made in Section 7, it is essential to discourage the transition away from these technologies. Again, the risk of maintaining these subsidies while promoting renewable energies would be political inconsistency and misalignment of incentives. Designing diverse energy supply technology portfolios While maintaining technological diversity and improve economics through standardization is a challenge, energy policies should be able to design a broad innovation portfolio where different energy technologies are supported. In other words, the risk of choosing the wrong “winner” technology (e.g. solar PV, wind energy, passive energy efficiency measures…) can be reduced by spreading it over different technologies. Encouraging the use of sustainable energy technologies A diverse portfolio of different renewable energy systems, energy efficiency measures, and energy storage options should be promoted using the most effective tools, which will be discussed in the following section. Removing the current barriers to electricity self-consumption (i.e. the punitive Sun Tax) should, of course, be a top priority in order to avoid misalignment of policies. Gradual electrification of space heating and cooling systems The substitution of diesel-powered space heating systems can be done gradually over the 14 years prior to 2030, in order to minimize the economic inefficiencies of such modifications.

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Gradual substitution of fossil fuels in industrial heat generators Industrial demand of heat can be either covered by biomass (low-temperature) or by electricity (high-temperature, e.g. arc furnaces). Similarly, these changes should be planned over time, providing financial support to those switching their systems unnecessarily, while at the same time avoiding free-rider issues with those actors who were going to change their systems anyway. Harnessing the global trends of Sustainable Energy Technologies Politicians should create the conditions where the intrinsically international sustainable energy technologies can be easily accessed and assimilated by local stakeholders. Developing the knowledge necessary to adapt, reproduce, and improve these technologies is yet another important step in achieving the Desired Vision. Being unable to take full advantage of the international flow of energy technologies would result in less than ideal solutions, outdated technologies, and missed opportunities. Highly planned transition Typically, implementation rates of renewable energy systems follow an S-curve (i.e. logistic function). In other words, the first years or even decades of implementation of a new technology are marked by sluggish implementation rates, with few MWs being installed by early adopters. This is followed by a rapid increase when the technology is mature and its economics are favourable, and a stabilization once the saturation begins. However, Section 6 outlines a different implementation timeline for many technologies, with sharp changes in the implementation rates from year to year in some technologies, something that can hardly be achieved in a free market. As a consequence, if the Desired Vision is to be achieved according to the proposed implementation timeline, a highly planned and regulated process should be followed. Abandonment of fossil fuel power plants Similarly, the power plants of Meirama, As Pontes, and Sabón, would have to be gradually dismantled. All in all, a combined rated capacity of 3200 MWe, currently being supplied by natural gas, diesel, and coal, would not be used anymore. Implementation of a high number of new renewable energy systems Compared with a natural gas power plant with a rated power of 1,400 MW, renewable energy systems are associated with a large number of smaller units being needed. As a result, the Desired Vision would only be achieved after the following systems are installed:

4,000 wind turbines with a rated power of 2 MWe each.

Eight hydropower plants with a rated power of 65 MWe each.

Ten minihydro power plants of 7 MWe each.

Nine biogas power plants of 10.5 MWe each.

One 24 MWe USR power plant.

Over 3 million solar thermal collectors of 1.5 m2 each.

68 million photovoltaic modules of 150 Wp each.

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Besides demonstrating a serious political and social commitment with the energy transition, an adequate incentive scheme should be provided. Nevertheless, the first measure that should be taken is the abolishment of current legal and regulatory barriers to the implementation of renewable energy systems, such as the infamous “Sun tax” and the Royal Decree regulating electricity self-supply in Spain. On the one hand, failing to provide a safety net to high sunk cost investments could potentially lead to underinvestment in renewable energy technologies. On the other hand, subsidies must be carefully selected and constantly checked in order to avoid free-rider issues in such a constantly changing industry. Among the options discussed in Sub-section 2.3, Feed-in-Tariffs have a better trade-off between impact and remuneration level than tradable certificate systems (IEA, 2011), so the latter are discarded. Additionally, a one-size-fits-all Feed-in Tariff would not lead to the proposed portfolio, but rather to all investments being put into the most profitable technology. Consequently, technology-specific Feed-in Tariffs have been chosen as the most appropriate incentive scheme. Market-based prices will very likely become unpredictable once a large portion of the electricity mix is composed by intermittent renewable energy technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaic. In other words, particularly sunny and windy days could lead to electricity prices close or even equal to 0 €/MWh, so providing a floor price is vital to assure the economic viability of such projects. These Feed-in Tariffs should be reviewed every year and include the acquired knowledge in order to account for the technological progress and provide a better estimate of the real cost of these systems. Furthermore, a tendering process should also be implemented if the highly planned transition proposed in the previous Section is to be followed. By translating a strong political commitment into yearly targets such as the ones proposed in this Section, a fixed quantity of energy capacity can be tendered every year for each renewable energy technology. A fair and transparent bidding process should assure that the cheapest energy projects will be realised first. However, some exceptions could be made. For instance, the repowering process of the Galician wind farms could favour the continuity of current developers.

7.4. Infrastructure

7.4.1. What

Re-thinking the role of the oil refinery On the one hand, the oil refinery of Repsol in A Coruña would gradually lose its Galician market. Although less than ideal from a corporate point of view, the global demand for oil derivatives would probably still be high enough to accommodate the production of this refinery at a profit. Therefore, these facilities would serve as a transformation spot, importing crude oil and exporting oil derivatives with a minimal fraction of its products being sold in Galicia. Transformation of gas stations into quick-charging stations The progressive implementation of electric vehicles explained in Sub-section 6.1 must be synchronised with the implementation of the required charging stations. Since the current gas stations are strategically located to provide the best service to vehicles, and in order to take advantage of the existing facilities such as restaurants and recreational areas, it would be appropriate to progressively implement quick-charging spots in the Galician gas stations,

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starting with cities and the most intensively used highways such as the AP-9 connecting A Coruña and Vigo. On the other hand, gas stations play a pivotal role in the current energy system and provide an invaluable source of reliability to the transportation sector. The transition from internal combustion engines to electric ones could be coupled with the substitution of petrol pumps with fast-charging sockets. Given that charging at 120 kW is already available at numerous locations around the globe, these strategically located refuelling stations could be transformed to recharge the batteries of electric vehicles within minutes when driving in the Galician highways. Installation of charging spots in public parking lots and streets First, charging spots should be progressively implemented in public parking lots linked to the existing demand. Secondly, corporate parking lots where workers park their cars during their work day should adopt the same strategy. Finally, once EVs are widespread, charging spots should be installed in the streets as well, so vehicles can be charged anywhere. Upgrading power grid While using intermittent renewable energy systems has inherent peaks of production that should be accommodated in the electricity infrastructure, the Desired Vision’s objective of cutting energy demand by half means that the current capacity of the transportation grid will likely be enough. However, the more distributed nature of these sustainable energy technologies and the bidirectional nature of the flows will require upgrades in the electricity distribution infrastructure. Smart grids In order to control energy supply, demand, and storage, control and monitoring via ICT (the elements defining a smart grid) should be implemented to provide information and control capabilities. Smart meters, vehicle-to-grid chargers, and other related technologies need to be implemented to assure a working sustainable energy system.


Distribution companies could be enforced to comply with an adequate rate of implementation of smart meters and control mechanisms associated with smart grids. The reinforcement of the transmission lines by Red Eléctirca Española should be done according to the changing requirements of the Galician energy system. The significant upgrades of the distribution power grids associated with the implementation of electric vehicles and distributed energy systems should be done by distribution companies and tightly regulated in order to assure a good quality of service.

7.5. Energy storage and other support capacity

7.5.1. What

Balancing intermittencies of RES-e: Support capacity Some renewable sources of electricity, such as solar PV and wind energy, are intermittent, posing a challenge to the balance of the electricity system. As a consequence, short-, mid-, and long-term electricity storage systems are needed as buffers where the excess electricity

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production can be saved for its future use. Both stationary systems and vehicle-to-grid technologies can be used for this purpose. However, other support capacity mechanisms, such as the gas-fuelled power plants, can be used to fight the intermittency of these renewable energy systems. Using Vehicle-to-Grid strategies In Section 6.5, Vehicle-to-Grid strategies as considered. In other words, the batteries of EVs should be partially available to cope with the fluctuations of electricity supply and demand. In order to achieve this, sufficient control over the process should be achieved.


The use of the gas-fired power plants of As Pontes (5) and Sabón as support capacity means that no additional measures need to be implemented until 2020. The increasing share of wind and solar PV generation in the electricity mix, however, mean that pumped storage and vehicle-to-grid storage will have to be working during the decade of the 2020s. As mentioned in Sub-section 6.5, the addition of 1350 MW of new pumped storage capacity is already within Iberdrola’s plans in the region. Therefore, awarding green light to these projects should be enough. The use of electric vehicles’ batteries as storage systems could be encouraged by the same pricing incentives suggested in Sub-section 7.2.2: drivers could charge their vehicles less expensively by making part of their batteries’ capacity in the hours they don’t intend to use their vehicles, and charging them more money when no flexibility is provided. Finally, the technical and economic development of other short- and long-term storage systems and other strategies should be assessed before 2029, when the implementation of 2 GW of support capacity will be required. It is too early to decide whether economic incentives will be needed by then.

7.6. Political, cultural, and social changes

The previous Sub-section has covered the implementation of technological measures and the installation of physical systems, as well as the cultural and structural changes associated with each specific area of study. However, in order for the Desired Vision to be achieved in an effective and affordable way, more general cultural and social changes and opportunities must be taken under consideration as well.

7.6.1. What

Re-adaptation of workers The transition towards a sustainable energy system has collateral effects on the status quo, such as dismantling the current power plants running on fossil fuels or the transformation of gas stations into quick-charging stations for electric vehicles. All in all, workers whose jobs are directly related to fossil fuels will face a challenge when this industry is progressively abandoned. In order to avoid social disruptions and unnecessary job losses that could potentially lead to difficult personal situations, appropriate planning and resources should be provided to experienced workers affected by these changes, offering them the chance to recycle their knowledge and skills to reduce their risk of unemployment.

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Transformation of the industrial activities to make the most of the energy transition The implementation of energy efficiency measures, renewable energy technologies, and energy storage systems is associated with the deployment of new devices. While these could be purchased to other countries, a well-planned energy transition would provide the opportunity for local entrepreneurs and multinational corporations to produce these devices and systems in Galicia. On the one hand, the deployment of over 3 million electric vehicles would provide the opportunity to boost the economy by building a factory of EVs and another factory of lithium-ion batteries. On the other hand, a factory of solar panels and companies specialized in repowering wind farms and energy efficiency measures would take advantage of the energy transition by providing a significant number of jobs to Galicia. While a planned transition such as the proposed one would set the foundations for these companies by assuring a demand in the short- and mid-term, these companies could keep importing their know-how and products abroad after 2030, endorsed by their experience in the Galician energy transition. Other social changes In order to achieve the 50% reduction in energy demand by 2030, the purely technical energy efficiency improvements were not enough. A small reduction in heat demand and large reduction in electricity demand have to be provided by changes in social behaviour. In general, a more energy-conscious behaviour should be adopted by the population, something that can either be based on economic incentives or in an enhanced environmentally-friendly attitude. Besides reducing the energy consumption at home, a larger sector of society should be attracted towards public transport or to car-sharing options. Other possibilities, such as the existence of a publicly owned fleet of autonomous EVs, would also require reducing the social status value traditionally assigned to owning a personal vehicle. Creating a lasting engagement in society Long-term political commitment is only possible if a large part of society is deeply engaged with the energy transition. Otherwise, politicians will be put under huge pressure when the economic needs of the pathway towards the Desired Vision directly conflict with other social priorities, resulting in inconsistencies and lack of stability in the long-term. Embracing the role of prosumers Some sustainable energy technologies, such as roof-mounted photovoltaic systems, are distributed energy systems and require a more active role of users in the energy system, which now consume and produce energy: the role of ‘prosumers’ is created. Increasing cooperation between institutions, companies, interest groups, and users The lack of cooperation between different stakeholders has been mentioned in the interviews. A successful transition towards a sustainable energy system in Galicia needs the capacity to reach agreements and spread knowledge and information between different actors. Being able to voice different concerns and ideas would also help create a long-lasting commitment of all stakeholders involved in the process. Providing objective and transparent information and knowledge

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Renewable energy systems often generate polarized views. It is essential to provide citizens with objective and unbiased information on the benefits and disadvantages of an energy transition. By fostering a transparent debate and avoiding fanaticisms, it should be easier to promote the necessary social changes. Furthermore, the implementation of a sustainable energy system should incorporate and reinforce the democratic values usually associated with these technologies by providing total transparency in the implementation of policies and the fund allocation process. Aligning incentive structures Misaligned incentive structures aimed at the encouraging the energy transition can result in market confusion and contradictions. For example, policies encouraging the implementation of wind energy could clash with local planning laws prohibiting the installation of these facilities. Furthermore, these incentive schemes should also be aligned with those adopted in different innovation systems, in order to encourage spill overs. For instance, transportation and energy policies are often deeply interrelated, but misalignments can easily arise if the policy makers of these sectors don’t pay careful attention. Achieving long-term political compromise and consistency Coming back to the conclusion obtained from the PESTEL analysis presented in Section 3, the lack of agreement between the major political parties in energy issues at both the Spanish and the Galician levels is one of the most important barriers for the implementation of such a vision. Transitioning to a sustainable energy system with 2030 as the time horizon requires a strong political commitment, able to create stable and consistent expectations for actors for at least the next two decades, in order to create enough credibility and incentives for society and investors to align themselves with the necessary changes and goals. However, avoiding constant changes in the direction of the energy policy does not depend exclusively of the autonomous community of Galicia. While European and supranational institutions provide minimum levels of implementation of renewable energies, it is the Spanish government the one that has a larger effect on the energy policy of the entire country. Therefore, it is essential for the implementation of the Desired Vision that the Spanish government commits itself in the long-term with the Galician energy transition. This could be achieved either by adapting the incentives of the entire country at the same time, or by providing exceptional room for manoeuver to Galicia, as it could be used as a test area for a latter energy transition in the rest of Spain. Reassuring existing companies, workers, and investors Transitioning towards a sustainable energy system implies abandoning part of the existing facilities and investments. Politicians should provide a fair exit strategy and enough room for manoeuvre to the owners of gas stations, refineries, coal and gas power plants, and other affected sectors. Furthermore, enough support should be offered to workers of these industries who will have to relocate or recycle their knowledge and skills to new positions and sectors. Avoiding free-rider issues will remain a challenge, but reassuring existing stakeholders is a vital step to avoid social opposition, distrust from investors, and sudden disruptions of an already weak job market. Alleviating the financial risk of high sunk cost investments Both large-scale and small-scale projects can result in long-term investments with sunk costs which are difficult to assume for investors, companies, and families. Long term contracts can be used in the private sector to alleviate these risks, while cost-plus pricing and RPI-X are

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widespread strategies to achieve the same risk alleviation in high sunk cost investments involved with energy infrastructures. Attracting investments Financers are key stakeholders in the transition towards a sustainable energy system. The trust created by the aforementioned political changes should create an ecosystem where investors, companies and users can all share a vision of the future energy system. The next step could be marketing the opportunity to national and international companies, research groups, and financers. Taking full advantage of the energy transition As it was already mentioned in the previous sub-section, a change of paradigm in the energy sector could result in the loss of a significant number of jobs in the fossil fuel industry. However, the implementation of a new energy system is also a great opportunity for the job market and the industrial landscape of Galicia. By taking full advantage of the energy transition, Galician companies moving into the field of renewable energies, energy efficiency and energy storage could start building early on the necessary expertise to be successful not only in this region, but also in an international environment.


Since long-term social and political commitment is a pivotal condition for the success of such a vision, Galician politicians should democratically consult citizens if they want to pursue such a target. Ideally, all citizens should be informed objectively of the advantages, disadvantages, and consequences of following this path. If the Galician society decides that this is the way to go, the different political parties should reach a strong long-term agreement to demonstrate their commitment to pursue the transition towards a sustainable energy system. The interests of society, companies, investors, and other stakeholders should be appropriately aligned before embarking in such a long-term and large-scale project. Since most energy policies currently depend on the Spanish government, three possibilities arise. The first of them is the entire country joining the energy transition, and therefore creating equal laws for all Spanish autonomous communities. The second option consists on providing Galicia with the complete legal authority to legislate in energy policy matters and create an independent energy system. Finally, the Spanish government could make exceptional regulations for Galicia, using this region as a testing ground for the energy transition. It seems vital to create an institution to coordinate the energy transition. This would also be done by transforming the Galician Energy Institute (INEGA) into the Galician Energy Transition Institute (INTEGA), as proposed by one of the interviewees. Such an institution should be used to coordinate all the efforts and propose the necessary laws and adjustments. Furthermore, it should lead the implementation and follow-up efforts by, for instance, organizing meetings with all relevant stakeholders every year to check the progress made and propose any necessary changes. Additionally, the coherence of different policy areas should be assured by keeping track of the policies in energy, transportation, and other related areas.

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7.7. Transition pathway and timeline of implementation

The transition towards a sustainable energy system in Galicia, as defined by the Desired Vision and the proposed implementation timelines, can be now connected to the Multi-level perspective and the transition pathways’ literature presented on Sub-section 2.3.1. It is now easy to spot that such a transition can only be accepted when the cultural and environmental factors exert sufficient pressure from the landscape level (i.e. climate change concerns, environmentally-conscious lifestyles…). The necessary changes identified in this backcasting analysis intend to create a disruptive change at the landscape and regime levels in order to destabilize the existing regime. Thanks to the design choice of discarding technologies in early development stages, most of the required technical interventions are based on previously developed niche-innovations such as wind and solar PV energy, or electric vehicles. Looking back at the four transition pathways, the proposed Desired Vision and its associated implementation timeline would be associated with a technological substitution, where “a disruptive change or shock at the landscape level destabilizes the existing regime, and enables previously developed niche-innovations to break through and replace the existing regime” (Foxon et al, 2010). Finally, a pathway narrative will be presented with the implementation timeline of the most important changes outlined by the backcasting analysis. As it has been previously mentioned, this pathway and its proposed implementation timeline of the technical, spatial, cultural, social and political changes is just one among many possible ones. 7.7.1. Desired Vision’s Pathway The market-led logic that has been followed for a long time assuring relatively affordable and reliable energy in Galicia no longer works to satisfy the environmental concerns of citizens. The projection of current trends into the future suggests that the energy system will continue to contribute to global warming, and before the start of 2017, citizens decide to pursue the Desired Vision by demanding a long-term social and political commitment in a democratic vote. As a consequence of these existing cultural and environmental pressures at the landscape level, the target of achieving a sustainable energy system in Galicia by 2030, as described by the Desired Vision, is established. In order to achieve such an ambitious target, the focus is initially put on making technical and institutional changes with the intention of gaining momentum. These “quick wins” can potentially be provided by creating a coordinating organism for the energy transition in Galicia and taking advantage of the significant potential of technical improvements, such as the widespread implementation of energy efficiency measures and mature renewable energy sources such as the repowering of wind parks reaching the end of its useful life. This initial stage will be refined in the narrative for the period 2017-2019. Nevertheless, the effects of the measures taken during this period will be felt until the conclusion of the energy transition in 2030. Subsequently, the equally important social changes will be tackled. Once initial momentum has been gathered, the policies and initiatives should be focused at achieving the long-term social behaviour changes required to achieve the Desired Vision. Similarly, the actions taken in this period of social action (2019-2021) will be extended until 2030.

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Finally, the importance of follow-up efforts in the backcasting process highlighted by Quist & Vergragt (2006) is reflected in the revision, learning, and adaptation process planned for the decade of the 2020s.

Figure 7.1. Proposed implementation pathway to reach the Desired Vision.

2017 – 2019: Gaining momentum with technical and institutional changes The urgency for action highlighted in the previous backcasting analysis results in a quick transformation of the current Galician energy institute, which by 2017 will be the Galician Energy Transition Institute, the coordinating organism of the transition towards a sustainable energy system. As one of the first and most challenging measures to be taken by this institution, the purchase of internal combustion vehicles is drastically forbidden in Galicia in the same year, with immediate alternatives being offered in the form of electric vehicles. Additional taxes on fossil fuels are established in order to subsidize electric vehicles; in other words, a cross-subsidy is established with the objective of reducing the economic burden of buying EVs instead of ICVs. Quick-charging stations are quickly implemented in gas stations across Galician highways in order to supply the necessary infrastructure for EVs to travel around the region. Furthermore, companies and entrepreneurs start deploying a system of electric charging spots, taking advantage of the opportunity created by the serious commitment on electrifying the road transportation system. Also in 2017, a tendering process is established in order to comply with the proposed implementation timelines for the different sustainable energy technologies (i.e. wind farms, solar PV panels…) and a “floor price” is designed in a technology-specific way, in order to reduce the price uncertainty associated with a power system with an increasing share of wind and solar energy. Widespread control and monitoring of the electric system via ICT starts to be progressively implemented in order to facilitate Demand Side Management measures and Vehicle-to-Grid strategies. Based on the same landscape pressures that facilitated the beginning of the energy transition in Galicia and spur by the regional ambitions, the European Union tightens energy efficiency standards by 2018. Energy demand reduction targets are established for all large industrial energy consumers within 5 years. Furthermore, minimum standards of energy efficiency are

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established for both large and small industrial consumers, and mandatory energy audits are enforced in order to assure that they are being respected. Among other changes, 2018 brings additional taxes on inefficient appliances and machinery that encourage their substitution by new ones, a regional plan of energy efficiency in households aimed at achieving a seven-fold increase in the rate of retrofit, new efficiency standards are established for new buildings, the gradual installation of charging spots in public parking lots starts to take off, and the power grid starts to be gradually upgraded according to the new requirements. 2019 – 2021: Influencing social behaviour By 2019, a new campaign is launched aimed at reducing the cultural value of private transport. By leaning on the same cultural and environmental values that led to the energy transition in the first place, and by acquiring a serious commitment of improving the public transportation system, less people is expected to use private transportation forms in the future. From 2021, the promotion of eco-friendly behaviours and the implementation of re-adaptation schemes for workers coming from the fossil-fuel industry reduce the social opposition to such a transition, and facilitate the behavioural changes required to cut by half the energy demand by 2030 when compared to 2012. 2020 – 2030: Reviewing, learning, and adapting As part of the extensive follow-up efforts, a comprehensive review of the progress achieved so far and the necessary adaptations is done in 2020, reinforcing the communication and interaction between different stakeholders. Furthermore, the challenges and possibilities of being a prosumer are presented more clearly to the electricity users, preparing them for the positive and negative consequences of the progressive implementation of distributed energy sources. Every four years, in 2024 and 2028, extensive follow-up efforts are made. Again, these are based on comprehensive reviews of the progress made so far and an assessment of the necessary adaptations. Furthermore, by 2028, the experience and knowledge gathered during the energy transition should be applied to create a blueprint for the period 2030-2040, where maintaining and improving the Galician energy system’s sustainability, affordability, and reliability are the main targets. Finally, by 2030, the implementation efforts are wrapped up and the knowledge gained from the energy transition is extensively shared in order to help other regions.

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Figure 7.2. Specific actions related to the implementation pathway proposed to reach the

Desired Vision.

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8. Conclusions, recommendations, and methodological reflection This Section is structured around three areas. First, the conclusions of this master’s thesis will be explored, establishing a connection with its objective and the main research question presented in the introduction. Subsequently, the recommendations to better achieve the objective of transitioning towards a sustainable energy system will be discussed. Finally, a reflection on the methodology and recommendations for its future application will be presented, providing insight on the advantages and challenges faced when developing and using the theoretical framework used in this master’s thesis.

8.1. Conclusions

The objective of this master’s thesis is to analyse how a sustainable energy system could be achieve in Galicia by 2030. With that in mind, Quist’s generic backcasting approach has been combined with sustainable energy landscape design and energy planning to create a theoretical framework which suited the needs of this research. As a result, this master’s thesis has followed the five steps of the aforementioned backcasting approach. First, the strategic problem orientation was performed by analysing the current energy system and its stakeholders (Section 3), and the potential of different renewable energy sources, energy efficiency measures and energy storage in the region (Section 4). Secondly, a desirable energy system for 2030 was defined and compared with the Business As Usual Scenario (Section 5). Thirdly, the backcasting analysis was divided in technical and spatial interventions (Section 6), on the one hand, and social, cultural and political interventions (Section 7), including the actions to be taken by different stakeholders and the follow-up efforts, on the other hand. The Desired Vision defined in this master’s thesis is based on goals such as a 50% cut in the energy demand from 2012 levels by 2030, self-sufficiency, meeting the demand with locally available renewable energy sources, or an extensive use of energy efficiency measures. The current energy system, as described in Section 3, is far away from these goals. In fact, 84% of the primary energy is imported, with virtually all of it coming from fossil fuels. Therefore, not only the objective of being self-sufficient is distant, but also less than 16% of the primary energy is currently produced from renewable energy sources. Additionally, the Business As Usual Scenario depicted in Section 5 highlights that the current trends and forecasts will only perpetuate these issues into the future. Firstly, 80% of the primary energy would still be imported in the BAU Scenario, and less than 20% of the total would be produced by renewable energy sources. Furthermore, the total energy demand by 2030 in the BAU Scenario would actually increase by 18% when compared with 2012, far from the desired 50% cut. Achieving a sustainable energy system by 2030 is technically feasible, but nevertheless challenging, and a serious social and political commitment is required in the mid- to long-term. The renewable energy potentials are way larger than the required installed capacity for each technology, making self-sufficiency an achievable objective if the road transportation sector is powered by electricity. The 50% cut in the energy demand from 2012 levels, however, can only be achieved if significant social and institutional changes are made, according to the comparison between the BAU Scenario and the Desired Vision performed in Section 5. It must be noted that other sustainable energy systems where the reduction in the total energy demand is not seen as an important factor, could be achieved with less social and cultural changes thanks to the vast renewable energy potentials in the region.

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The implementation timelines for each renewable energy technology, energy efficiency measure, and energy storage need are included in Section 7 (Elaboration and implementation). Some of the most important takeaways are presented in this conclusion:

The most important contribution to the reduction in energy demand comes from the

substitution of ICVs with EVs. Given the relatively long life-span of cars, radical and

immediate action would need to be taken in the very short-term in order to achieve the

Desired Vision. For instance, buying ICVs should be forbidden as soon as possible,

and every ICV should be replaced by an EV. As a consequence, around 0.2 million

electric vehicles should be deployed in Galicia every year from 2017 to 2030, turning

this change into one of the most important and challenging ones at the same time.

Energy efficiency measures in all sectors should be implemented as soon as possible,

as the reduction in the energy demand is achieved in every year since its

implementation.

The implementation of different renewable energy technologies should be done by first

taking into account the energy demand, and then considering the development time of

each technology (e.g. hydropower is associated with large projects and long

development times, while PV systems can be designed and installed in less than a

year).

The abandonment of fossil fuel power plants should be done gradually, starting with

the oldest and “dirtiest” ones, in order to allow renewable energy production to catch

up.

Energy infrastructure should be gradually implemented as well. A detailed

implementation timeline such as the one proposed in this master’s thesis allows for a

better planning of the future changes, such as installing charging spots for EVs or

increasing the capacity of the power grids.

The gradual implementation of intermittent renewable energy sources (wind energy

and solar) in the electricity sector, and the abandonment of the gas-fired power plant

by 2029, means that no additional support capacity would be needed until 2021.

Additionally, vehicle-to-grid strategies could contribute significantly to the required

support capacity, highlighting the importance of a simultaneous transition in the energy

system and the road transportation sector.

Social interventions require the change in cultural behaviour in many cases, leading to

more challenging and blurry implementation timelines: while it is easy to decide when

to install a PV panel and effectively achieve this goal, re-adapting workers or achieving

a more eco-friendly behaviour depend on external factors.

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8.2. Recommendations

Discarding technologies in R&D stage Considering the extended lead times needed to research and develop novel energy technologies, one of the premises of this master’s thesis was basing most of the Desired Vision on currently available technologies. As a consequence, the transition towards a sustainable energy system in Galicia should not rely on technological breakthroughs or disruptive new technologies, but rather focus on improvements of the economic competiveness required to achieve the energy transition in an economically efficient manner. Involving citizens in the decision-making process Since the energy policy changes proposed in the backcasting analysis depend on the Spanish government, Galicia should base its requests to change these policies on a strong social interest, shown by their decisions in a democratic voting process. Simultaneous deployment of EVs and RES-e The intermittency of certain renewable electricity sources, such as wind and solar energy, requires the existence of support capacity. The coordinated deployment of these two technologies, renewable electricity sources and electric vehicles, can be seen as an advantageous move due to several reasons. On the one hand, the “fuel” of EVs, electricity, can be directly produced by wind turbines and photovoltaic panels, reducing the transformation losses. On the other hand, the batteries used by EVs could potentially be used as support capacity in order to fight the intermittency of these renewable energy sources by adopting Vehicle-to-Grid strategies. Optimizing the timing of the transition in the transportation sector While the transition from internal combustion vehicles to electric vehicles has been identified as one of the most promising changes, it is also one of the most challenging ones. On the one hand, the proposed implementation timeline would mean that the amount of electric vehicles sold in Galicia would grow from a few dozens to 0.2 million in less than a year, something extremely ambitious for a market which hasn’t reached maturity yet. On the other hand, electric trucks and buses do not still have the capabilities to fully substitute the current ones without a vast infrastructure. Therefore, a more gradual adoption of electric vehicles is advised, even if that means delaying the objective of achieving a completely sustainable road transportation sector by several years. Considering more moderate cuts in energy demand The 50% cut in energy demand when compared to 2012 levels has been a rather arbitrary choice. The backcasting analysis shows that the achievement of such a target relies heavily on behavioural changes. Considering that the potential for renewable energy sources significantly exceeds the energy supply system proposed for the Desired Vision, the adoption of a less extreme reduction in the energy demand would increase its feasibility. Be prepared for continuous adaptation of the initial planning As it has been already discussed, an extremely planned transition would be required to follow the proposed implementation timelines. In reality, it is much more likely that external factors such as social acceptance or affordability influence the decisions of different stakeholders, leading to pathways which could vastly differ from the planned ones. Therefore, constant follow-up and steering is advised.

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8.3. Methodological reflection and recommendations

Backcasting: Quist’s and Robinson’s approaches While the initial intention of this master’s thesis was to use Quist’s generic backcasting approach to create a solid backbone where the other methodologies could be integrated, the final result could be interpreted as a mixture of Quist’s and Robinson’s backcasting approaches. The participatory element of Quist’s backcasting approach has been very limited in this master’s thesis. While the opinions of different stakeholders have been pivotal in the design process of the Desired Vision and the identification of some important challenges and opportunities in the energy transition, this has been done with individual interviews. All in all, broad stakeholder involvement has not been achieved, and the tools aimed at increasing the stakeholder interactivity have been neglected. The lack of a strong and existing initiative led by the Galician government towards a sustainable energy system could be one of the causes of the absence of an institutional participation in the process. Furthermore, the organization of workshops and group activities could have led to more interesting results if sufficient interest had existed. Despite Robinson’s late incorporation of participatory elements in 2003, his 1990 approach with little stakeholder involvement is more similar to the one followed in this master’s thesis. Sustainable energy landscape design and backcasting The five-step backcasting approach developed by Quist and Vergragt (2006) has been used in combination with sustainable energy landscape design and energy planning methods and tools. By using this generic backcasting approach, the flexibility required to accommodate the other methods has been easily found. On the one hand, energy planning methods have been added to the mix with the main objective of providing additional tools to carry out the implementation steps, reinforcing the theoretical framework overall. On the other hand, sustainable energy landscape design and backcasting had already been combined by Ricken (2014) in a previous master’s thesis, dealing with an energy backcasting exercise in the Dutch island of Texel. As a consequence, the integration of these two methodologies in this master’s thesis is a straightforward adaptation of Ricken’s approach. While the methods and tools provided by this integration have proved to be useful when assessing the renewable energy potentials of Galicia, some challenges have also been found. Most importantly, defining and mapping all the spatial interventions proposed in a relatively large region like Galicia, which is over sixty times larger than Texel and has a rather complex orography, would require an excessive amount of time in order to be developed and optimized. Consequently, those spatial interventions which could be precisely defined with a reasonable effort (e.g. wind farms, quick-charging stations for EVs, USR power plant…) have been covered in depth, while others have been loosely described (e.g. installing solar panels “on roofs”, deploying chargers “in the cities”…) in order to achieve a satisfactory result within the time allocated for this master’s thesis. Additionally, spatial barriers were also considered at a higher level by taking into account protected areas (e.g. Red Natura 2000) and the specific spatial constraints of each technology (e.g. offshore wind turbines not being located where water depth exceeds 50 meters).

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Energy planning and backcasting Defining a comprehensive and coherent methodology based on the existing energy planning literature has been the biggest challenge of developing the theoretical framework of this master’s thesis. Although a significant amount of books, reports, and scientific articles related to the topics encompassed in this term can be found, some problems have been encountered. The objective of including energy planning methods in this master’s thesis is to provide tools for the implementation step. In order to do so, energy planning should help answering three questions: What interventions need to be done in the demand side of the energy system? How can these necessary changes be implemented? When should these changes be done (i.e. defining implementation timelines)? As a consequence, three different sets of tools had to be explored. Demand Side Management strategies were chosen due to their ability to reduce the magnitude of the energy demand (Energy Efficiency) and reshape the load curve (Load Management), effectively reinforcing the answer to the What question. How all the interventions should be implemented is covered by presenting the common policy instruments used to support the energy transition, and exploring the transition pathways proposed by Geels and Schot as part of their Multi-Level Perspective of energy transitions. The first major problem encountered in this process was binding these three topics together and creating a simple and solid “energy planning” Sub-section. The second problem was providing a sound theoretical framework to help defining implementation timelines for the required interventions (When). Despite energy policies being often embedded in case studies and practical examples, a rather comprehensive list of political measures to support the energy transition could be created, providing support to answer How these changes could be implemented. However, the literature on the temporal implementation of these measures has been found to be too disperse, mostly consisting on very specific examples. Therefore, the implementation timelines were mostly developed based on the author’s judgement and educated guesses, result of his previous knowledge and experience. Developing a BAU Scenario and comparing it to the Desired Vision The development of a BAU Scenario and its comparison with the Desired Vision has been challenging and fruitful at the same time. On the one hand, conflicting trends were found when forecasting the development of the Galician energy system up to 2030. While a simple extrapolation of the data available from the period 2000-2012 suggested that the energy demand would keep growing significantly, the European trends and forecasts for the near future indicate that electricity demand in particular is likely going to decrease. As a consequence, the average annual growth rates used to develop the BAU Scenario were loosely extrapolated from the observation of several European forecasts. On the other hand, the advantages of defining a BAU Scenario became clear when comparing it to the Desired Vision. Firstly, because a comparison between the Desired future vision and the current situation can be greatly misleading: there is little insight on which areas are performing better and which areas need more attention, resulting in incomplete or less than ideal analyses being performed in the backcasting step. Secondly, the potential of technical measures could be easily separated from the changes in social behaviour required to achieve the goals of the Desired Vision.

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Limitations of selected data and assumptions The quantitative part of this master’s thesis, including pivotal elements such as the assessment of the current energy system, the analysis of the potential renewable energy sources, miscellaneous historical data (e.g. evolution of the Galician population and housing stocks), and energy forecasts, have been extracted from heterogeneous sources. On the one hand, the official publication of the Galician energy balances from 2000 to 2012 provide a reliable and consistent source of information on the energy supply and demand system in the region. Furthermore, Eurostat, the Galician Institute of Statistics (Instituto Galego de Estadística, IGE), and the Spanish Statistical Office (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, INE) provide trustworthy information on objective data such as the roof area in Galicia or the evolution of the new constructed buildings. On the other hand, other important elements were defined with evident limitations: they had to be either derived from existing data for different regions (e.g. Spain or even Europe), averaged from differing reports and articles, or deduced by making educated assumptions. The first type of limitation can be seen in the development of the BAU Scenario, where forecasts of the PRIMES model for the European Union have been used. As a consequence, the specific challenges and opportunities of Galicia when compared to the EU as a whole are not being considered. For instance, a worse-than-average public transportation system could lead to a higher-than-expected demand for transportation fuels. Likewise, a climate warmer than the European average could result in heat demand changing at a different rate than the values predicted by the PRIMES model. The second kind of limitation, finding reports and scientific articles with different values for a certain dataset, is best seen in the assessment of renewable energy potentials of Section 4. For example, the geothermal potential in Galicia can be defined in several ways, resulting in different values being reached by Chamorro et al (2014) and IDAE (2011). Both the first and the second obstacles could be overcome by working with existing historical datasets and forecasts which are specific to the studied region. Since this is not always possible at the moment, governments, agencies and companies should be encouraged to standardize the tracking process of all types of useful statistical data for future use. Finally, assumptions and estimations have been widely used in this master’s thesis when no specific data was available. While the author has tried to make well-educated guesses (e.g. using realistic grid configurations in the estimation of offshore wind energy), it is undeniable that some uncertainty on the final results is added by this process. Contrasting these estimates with experienced professionals more familiar with the specific issues in this region could potentially reduce the deviation from the correct values. Methodological recommendations

This list of recommendations is intended to help future students and researchers embarking in similar projects by highlighting some of the challenges they should be aware of:

Make sure there is enough information to carry out the strategic problem orientation.

In particular, assessing the potential of renewable energy sources can be extremely

time consuming if it needs to be done from scratch.

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Developing a comprehensive view of the current energy system and being able to

interview a variety of stakeholders can be challenging. Developing such a backcasting

approach on a region with an ongoing ambition to achieve the energy transition can

facilitate access to relevant stakeholders and more advanced information sources.

When performing these type of analysis with limited resources and time limitations,

focusing on relatively small regions would facilitate achieving broad stakeholder

involvement, resulting in a future vision which is desirable to a large part of the

population. Furthermore, the spatial interventions could be defined in a much more

detailed manner, as shown in Ricken’s master’s thesis. Nevertheless, efforts carried

out by larger agencies, companies, institutions, or research groups could tackle the

energy transition of larger regions or countries while still being specific and performing

an in-depth analysis.

Using an existing forecast to define the BAU Scenario when possible would eliminate

potential misjudgements of the author from compromising the backcasting analysis. Of

course, such a forecast should be as reliable and specific to the region being studied

as possible.

Defining several Desired Visions and performing their respective backcasting analyses

would allow for a better assessment of the robustness of the interventions. Due to time

limitations, only one Desired Vision out of many possible ones has been defined. In

those cases where time constraints are not an issue, it is suggested that the required

changes and interventions for several Desired Visions are compared and analysed, in

order to give priority to the most robust interventions, those that appear in most

backcasting analyses.

Finding a clear, straightforward way of presenting the backcasting analysis has proven

to be a challenging experience. The existence of multiple areas (i.e. transportation,

energy efficiency measures, renewable energy systems, infrastructure, and energy

storage) and multiple types of solutions (e.g. political, cultural, and social changes)

create a complex ecosystem for the backcasting analysis. Prospective researchers

and students are encouraged to explore the “Goals, Strategies, and Proposals”

structure used by Carien van der Have (2015).

While the need for complementing policy measures in several areas to achieve such

an ambitious target has been acknowledged in this master’s thesis, the concept of

“policy packaging” has not been formally used. Therefore, future researchers are

encouraged to explore the literature on this topic, which could potentially provide a

more clear and structured way of presenting the recommendations.

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IGE. (2015a). Efectivos de gando. Retrieved from: http://www.ige.eu/web/mostrar_actividade_estatistica.jsp?idioma=gl&codigo=0301003 (Last visit: 3rd December 2015). IGE. (2016). Número de edificios e superficie a construir. Datos mensuais. Retrieved from: http://www.ige.eu/web/mostrar_actividade_estatistica.jsp?idioma=gl&codigo=0304001 (Last visit: 29th July 2016). IGE. (2016a). Series históricas de poboación. Poboación segundo sexo e grupos quinquenais de idade. Retrieved from: http://www.ige.eu/web/mostrar_actividade_estatistica.jsp?idioma=gl&codigo=0201001002 (Last visited: January 2, 2016). IGE. (2016b). Vivendas con medidas de aforro enerxético: illamento térmico e luces de baixo consumo. Retrieved from: http://www.ige.eu/web/mostrar_actividade_estatistica.jsp?idioma=gl&codigo=0205009 (Last visited: 29th July 2016). INE. (2014). Cifras oficiales de población resultantes de la revisión del Padrón municipal a 1 de enero. Población por comunidades y ciudades autónomas y sexo. Retrieved from: http://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Datos.htm?t=2853 (Last visited: 28th November 2015). INEGA. (2014). Balance enerxético de Galicia 2012. Santiago de Compostela, Spain: Consellería de Economía e Industria, Xunta de Galicia. INEGA. (2015). Listado de empresas energéticas. Retrieved from http://www.inega.es/enerxiagalicia/listaxeempresas.html?idioma=es (visited: November 18th, 2015). Magallanes Renovables. (2015). Proyecto Magallanes: Generating future. Retrieved from http://www.magallanesrenovables.com/en/proyecto (visited: November 18th, 2015). REE. (2016). Mapas de la red eléctrica española. As seen in: http://www.ree.es/es/actividades/gestor-de-la-red-y-transportista/mapas-de-la-red (Last checked: 11th June, 2016). Roca, M. (2014). Spain caps earning from renewables in subsidy overhaul. Bloomberg. Retrieved from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-06-06/spain-caps-earnings-from-renewables-in-subsidy-overhaul (visited: May 1st, 2016). SolarServer. (2012). IEA solar heating and cooling programme: solar thermal markets grew 14% in 2010. Retrieved from: http://www.solarserver.com/solar-magazine/solar-news/archive-2012/2012/kw20/iea-solar-heating-and-cooling-programme-solar-thermal-markets-grew-14-in-2010.html (Last visited: 28th November 2015). TU Delft. (2015). Thermal Gradient (OTEC). Retrieved October20, 2015 from http://oceanenergy.tudelft.nl/thermal-gradient-otec/ Vázquez Sola, M. (2007, January 2). Endesa y Fenosa jubilan el carbón. El País. Retrieved from: http://elpais.com/diario/2007/01/02/galicia/1167736689_850215.html (visited: November 9th, 2015).





http://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Datos.htm?t=2853

http://www.inega.es/enerxiagalicia/listaxeempresas.html?idioma=es

http://www.magallanesrenovables.com/en/proyecto

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-06-06/spain-caps-earnings-from-renewables-in-subsidy-overhaul

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-06-06/spain-caps-earnings-from-renewables-in-subsidy-overhaul

http://www.solarserver.com/solar-magazine/solar-news/archive-2012/2012/kw20/iea-solar-heating-and-cooling-programme-solar-thermal-markets-grew-14-in-2010.html



http://oceanenergy.tudelft.nl/thermal-gradient-otec/

http://elpais.com/diario/2007/01/02/galicia/1167736689_850215.html

148

Interviews

Álvarez, P. (2016). Interview with the CEO of the Galician energy cooperative Nosa Enerxía S.C.G. Blanco, F. (2016). Interview with a representative of the Professional association of Galician Industrial Engineers, and editor of the Galician energy magazine Dinamo Técnica. Carrillo, C. (2016). Interview with the coordinator of the MSc Energy and Sustainability at the University of Vigo. Silva, F. (2016). Interview with the delegate of Iberdrola in Galicia.

149

Appendix A. Energy balances Figure A.1. Galician energy balance 2012 (INEGA, 2014).

P

RIM

AR

Y EN

ERG

YLO

SSES

A

VA

ILA

BLE

EN

ERG

Y

E

NER

GY

DEM

AN

D

Galicia

Galicia

Galicia

Impo

rts

9.8

Co

al0.

0Pe

tro

leu

m p

rodu

cts

4.0

Elec

tric

ity

74.4

Hyd

ropo

wer

15.3

Co

al44

.1

Min

ihyd

ro2.

3N

atur

al g

as9.

3H

eat

95.2

Bio

mas

s33

.5H

ydro

15.1

Bio

gas

0.2

Min

ihyd

ro2.

2Fu

els

for

tran

spo

rt10

5.1

Bio

fuel

s3.

3W

ind

29.0

USR

1.9

Bio

mas

s1.

5TO

TAL

274.

7

Oth

er r

esid

ues

0.7

Bio

gas

0.1

Win

d29

.5U

SR0.

6

Sun

(PV

+The

rmal

)0.

2O

ther

res

idue

s0.

5

TOTA

L86

.9So

lar

0.0

Tota

l ele

ctri

city

116.

2

Petr

ole

um

pro

duct

s40

.7Exports

Nat

ural

gas

18.2

Imported

Imported

Bio

mas

s27

.3El

ectr

icit

y41

.8

Res

idue

s &

Oth

ers

8.0

Nat

ural

gas

22.1

Oil

crud

e17

2.6

Tota

l hea

t94

.1B

iofu

els

2.8

Petr

ole

um

pro

duct

s78

.9Pe

tro

leu

m p

rodu

cts

93.2

Co

al12

0.5

Nat

ural

gas

26.5

TOTA

L15

9.9

Elec

tric

ity

0.0

Die

sel o

il12

6.6

Nat

ural

gas

64.8

Fuel

oil

12.3

Bio

mas

s0.

0G

aso

lines

35.3

Bio

fuel

s6.

5Ke

rose

nes

2.1

TOTA

L44

3.3

LPG

3.8

Co

ke11

.1

Co

al0.

0

Bio

fuel

s6.

5

Bio

mas

s0.

0

Sola

r th

erm

al0.

1

Res

idue

s0.

0

Oth

er11

.3

Tota

l fue

ls22

4.3

Tota

l43

4.6

7.0

97.0

150

Figure A.2. Galician energy balance 2030 Business As Usual.

P

RIM

AR

Y E

NER

GY

LOSS

ES

AV

AIL

AB

LE E

NER

GY

EN

ERG

Y D

EMA

ND

Galicia

Galicia

Galicia

Imp

ort

s9

.8

Co

al0

.0P

etro

leu

m p

rod

uct

s3

.0El

ectr

icit

y1

03

.1

Hyd

rop

ow

er3

4.1

Co

al3

8.3

Min

ihyd

ro5

.6N

atur

al g

as1

5.7

Hea

t9

5.7

Bio

mas

s1

17

.8H

ydro

18

.9

Bio

gas

1.0

Min

ihyd

ro2

.8Fu

els

for

tran

spo

rt1

25

.9

Bio

fuel

s8

.1W

ind

62

.5

USR

1.2

Bio

mas

s1

.9TO

TAL

32

4.8

Oth

er r

esid

ues

0.4

Bio

gas

0.1

Win

d8

9.0

USR

0.4

Sun

(P

V+T

her

mal

)1

4.6

Oth

er r

esid

ues

0.4

TOTA

L2

71

.8So

lar

0.8

Tota

l ele

ctri

city

15

4.5

Pet

role

um

pro

du

cts

38

.1Exports

Nat

ural

gas

20

.1

Imported

Imported

Bio

mas

s3

0.2

Elec

tric

ity

51

.4

Res

idu

es &

Oth

ers

5.6

Nat

ural

gas

38

.4

Oil

cru

de

24

6.5

Tota

l he

at9

4.1

Bio

fuel

s1

8.4

Pet

role

um

pro

du

cts

10

7.5

Pet

role

um

pro

du

cts

90

.0

Co

al1

48

.0N

atur

al g

as3

8.4

TOTA

L1

98

.2

Elec

tric

ity

0.0

Die

sel o

il1

55

.5

Nat

ural

gas

92

.5Fu

el o

il1

5.2

Bio

mas

s0

.0G

aso

lines

18

.9

Bio

fuel

s6

.5K

ero

sen

es2

.2

TOTA

L6

01

.1LP

G5

.3

Co

ke1

8.8

Co

al0

.0

Bio

fuel

s9

.8

Bio

mas

s0

.0

Sola

r th

erm

al0

.1

Res

idu

es0

.0

Oth

er1

8.9

Tota

l fu

els

28

3.1

Tota

l5

31

.7

7.8

94

.5

151

Figure A.3. Galician energy balance 2030 Desired Vision.

P

RIM

AR

Y E

NER

GY

LOSS

ES

AV

AIL

AB

LE E

NER

GY

EN

ERG

Y D

EMA

ND

Galicia

Galicia

Galicia

Imp

ort

s0

.0

Co

al0

.0P

etro

leu

m p

rod

uct

s2

26

.7El

ectr

icit

y1

36

.8

Hyd

rop

ow

er1

9.1

Co

al0

.0

Min

ihyd

ro2

.8N

atur

al g

as0

.0H

eat

47

.6

Bio

mas

s5

5.7

Hyd

ro1

8.9

Bio

gas

0.8

Min

ihyd

ro2

.8Fu

els

for

tran

spo

rt1

9.8

Bio

fuel

s0

.0W

ind

68

.4

USR

1.2

Bio

mas

s1

1.4

TOTA

L2

04

.2

Oth

er r

esid

ues

0.4

Bio

gas

0.3

Win

d6

9.8

USR

0.4

Sun

(P

V+T

her

mal

)4

8.4

Oth

er r

esid

ues

0.4

TOTA

L1

98

.2So

lar

34

.2

Tota

l ele

ctri

city

36

3.5

Nat

ural

gas

0.0

Exports

Bio

mas

s1

9.0

Imported

Imported

Res

idu

es &

Oth

ers

9.5

Elec

tric

ity

0.0

Pet

role

um

pro

du

cts

0.0

Nat

ural

gas

0.0

Oil

cru

de

25

6.7

Sola

r th

erm

al9

.5B

iofu

els

0.0

Pet

role

um

pro

du

cts

0.0

Tota

l he

at4

7.6

Pet

role

um

pro

du

cts

22

6.7

Co

al0

.0TO

TAL

22

6.7

Elec

tric

ity

0.0

Nat

ural

gas

0.0

Nat

ural

gas

0.0

Die

sel o

il0

.0

Bio

mas

s0

.0Fu

el o

il1

7.6

Bio

fuel

s0

.0G

aso

lines

0.0

TOTA

L2

56

.7K

ero

sen

es2

.2

LPG

0.0

Co

ke0

.0

Co

al0

.0

Bio

fuel

s0

.0

Bio

mas

s0

.0

Sola

r th

erm

al0

.0

Res

idu

es0

.0

Oth

er0

.0

Tota

l fu

els

19

.8

Tota

l4

30

.9

10

.8

10

.3

152

Appendix B. Morphological Analysis Figure B.1. Cross-impact matrix.

Ma

rke

t-le

dG

ove

rnm

en

t-

led

Civ

il so

cie

ty-

led

Bio

ma

ss

Geoth

erm

al

Hyd

roe

lectr

icO

cean

(Wa

ve

)S

ola

r (R

oofs

)S

ola

r

(Gro

un

d)

Win

d o

nsh

ore

Win

d o

ffsh

ore

Co

al a

nd

Na

tura

l ga

sIn

cre

ase

Sta

ble

De

cre

ase

Energ

y

effic

iency

Ele

ctr

ic

ve

hic

les

FF

fo

r

transport

ation

Bio

fuels

for

transport

ation

Hyd

rog

en f

or

transport

ation

Public

transport

and

bic

ycle

s

Larg

e e

nerg

y

co

mp

an

ies

Ce

ntr

al

go

ve

rnm

en

tE

SC

Os

Use

rs a

nd

loca

l

co

mm

un

itie

s

NG

Os

Sm

art

Grid

s

Tra

nsm

issio

n

grid

rein

forc

em

en

t

Ch

arg

ing

infr

astr

uctu

re

for

Evs

Ce

ntr

aliz

ed

genera

tion

Dis

trib

ute

d

genera

tion

Dis

trib

ution

grid

rein

forc

em

en

t

Ma

rke

t-le

d

Go

ve

rnm

en

t-le

d

Civ

il so

cie

ty-le

d

Bio

ma

ss

Geoth

erm

al

Hyd

roe

lectr

ic

Ocean (

Wave)

Sola

r (R

oofs

)

Sola

r (G

round)

Win

d o

nsh

ore

Win

d o

ffsh

ore

Co

al a

nd

Na

tura

l g

as

Incre

ase

Sta

ble

De

cre

ase

Energ

y e

ffic

iency

Ele

ctr

ic v

ehic

les

FF

fo

r tr

an

spo

rta

tio

n

Bio

fuels

for

transport

ation

Hyd

rog

en f

or

transport

ation

Public

tra

nsport

and

bic

ycle

s

Larg

e e

nerg

y c

om

panie

s

Ce

ntr

al go

ve

rnm

en

t

ES

CO

s

Use

rs a

nd lo

ca

l

co

mm

un

itie

s

NG

Os

Sm

art

Grid

s

Tra

nsm

issio

n g

rid

rein

forc

em

en

t

Ch

arg

ing in

fra

str

uctu

re

for

Evs

Ce

ntr

aliz

ed

gen

era

tio

n

Dis

trib

ute

d g

ene

ratio

n

Dis

trib

ution

grid

rein

forc

em

en

t

Key infr

astr

uctu

re a

spects

Key actors Key infrastructure aspectsEnergy demandKey supply side technologies Key demand side technologiesKey governance

aspects

Key g

overn

ance a

spects

Key s

upply

sid

e technolo

gie

sE

nerg

y d

em

and

Ke

y d

em

an

d s

ide

tech

no

log

ies

Key a

cto

rs

Brais - Master Thesis TU Delft

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