Boston spin conference death march yourdon

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Death March Projectsin today’s

Hard TimesEdward Yourdon

email: [email protected]: www.yourdonreport.com

Boston SPIN conferenceMarch 16, 2010

http://www.yourdon.com


mailto:[email protected]


http://www.yourdonreport.com



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AgendaIntroduction and quick summaryProject PoliticsProject NegotiationsPeopleware IssuesSoftware processesMonitoring and Controlling ProgressLanguages, Tools, and Technology




Two kinds of death-march project

DefensiveOffensive

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“Defensive” death-march“Give me an estimate for the XYZ system.I think it will take…6 months5 people$5,000,000I need the estimate in one hour, for my meeting with the budget committee.”




Your assessment

“I think it will take…12 months10 people$10,000,000…but I really need more time for a careful estimate!”




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Offensive death-march project


Indicators of new age of death-march projects

Overall indicatorsStock market, real-estate prices, GDP decline, etc.Drop in consumer spending, decline in consumer confidence

How long will it last?Hard to imagine that 2010 will be anything better than “flat”Recent economic reports suggest worst may be over, but recovery may be weak and slow for years to come

Impact on IT: depends on what kind of companyBanks, financial institutionsGovernment, public-sector organizationsManufacturing, consumer-orientedStartup companies that depend on VC funding




Supply vs. demandDemand for new death-march projects

Probably LOTS of “defensive” death-march projects to cut costs, etc.Probably FEWER “offensive” death-march projects, except in companies where it’s deeply ingrained in the culture (e.g., Apple’s iPad initiative)

Supply of participants for new death-march projCynicism/skepticism much greater than in pre-2008 periodMany people have no choice/alternative — it’s not a question of volunteeringPerceived inevitability of outsourcing may cause some IT professionals to think that participation in death-march project won’t save them anyway

Generational factorRecent CS/SE graduates may abandon IT careers if they can’t get a job within a year or so after graduatingSome recent graduates abandoning ALL “professional” careers, taking low-pressure jobs and shifting their priorities elsewhere.




Impact of new death-march projects?Faster?

Unlikely - indeed, things might slow down because of “decision delays”

Barry Boehm: “Projects finish late because they start late!”

Cheaper!!Spending freeze on capital items, upgrades, new tools, etc.

Increases pressure on open source, SAAS, Web 2.0, etc.

Also, more outsourcing -- but maybe outsourcing to Kansas instead of India

Smaller budgets means more inexpensive, junior-level developers

Fewer people!Smaller teams

Less admin support

More “fragmented” teams, with people working on multiple projects




AgendaIntroduction and quick summaryProject Politics - more “ugly” projectsProject Negotiations - more unilateral, less compromisingPeopleware Issues - more important, but people will feel they have fewer optionsMonitoring and Controlling Progress - yesLanguages, Tools, and Technology - collaboration tools (Twitter, etc.)Software Processes — let’s discuss...




Project Politics: determining theBasic Nature of the Project

chances of success

happiness

suicide

missionimpossiblekamikaze

“Ugly”



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One comment re peopleware

It doesn’t have to cost a lot of money to make people feel good about their participation in a team...

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Monitoring & controlling progress

Traditional, common-sense ideas — e.g., the “nightly build” — still make a lot of sense in today’s “hard-times” death-march projects


Process Issues

“Good Enough” softwareEconomic justification of PI initiativesAgile processesProcess impact of “junior-heavy” teams




Good-Enough Processes“Zero defect” is the enemy of “good enough” — except in situations that people perceive to be safety-critical (today’s software(?) example: Toyota)Emphasis on “good-enough” will increase, especially in consumer-oriented web applicationsLots of technical issues - e.g., caching, queues, graceful degradation when servers failBut what about tolerance for bugs and security flaws? Do we really accept Microsoft’s idea of a “hacker tax”?Google has created a “beta-forever” cultureConsumers show amazing tolerance for barely-good-enough when it’s free (Google mail, Twitter, etc.)Emphasize risk-based testing to minimize TOTAL failuresRemember consumers will be grumpy, pissed-off, fickle




Economic justificationof PI initiatives

Process improvement is much harder to sell as a “philosophy” in bad timesImagine arguing in favor of investing in CMMI when CIO has just been told to reduce IT budget by 25% in 2010Justification will have to be based on credible ROI or risk-based argumentRealistically, ROI is likely to be based on multi-year time-horizon ... politically dangerous




Agile ProcessesObviously!Cost-cutting culture will probably favor “light” processes, with less bureaucracy, formalityBut increased pressure on end-users will jeopardize “back-fill” and other user-participatory activities in development projectsIn fact, overall economic pressures will push senior management to find excuses to cancel expensive development projects




Process Impact of“junior-heavy” teams

Less-experienced people need a more formal, rigorous, disciplined process“Ugly” (high-pressure, heavy overtime) death-march projects will lead to grumpy, demoralized junior staffers... and while they’ll keep working (because they can’t vote with their feet)... they’ll resist efforts to formalize processes.You can threaten to fire them if they refuse process rules...... but there’s a real risk of quiet process-related mutiny, anarchyPrediction: we’ll have a LOT of crappy systems to fix up 5-10 years from now




ConclusionsMost of these cycles last 2-3 years, and then we’re back to good timesBut people are like elephants: they never forget when they’re treated badly, even if they have to tolerate it for a while.But this downturn could last longer than most of the previous ones, and could alter the supply-demand balanceWe will get through it, but it may take a while...But I’ll still be here when the good times return...






http://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/2626995096

http://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/2626995096


Death March Projectsin today’s

Hard TimesEdward Yourdon

email: [email protected]: www.yourdonreport.com

Boston SPIN conferenceMarch 16, 2010







Boston spin conference death march yourdon

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