BOSNIA‘S CIVIL WAR - Masaryk University€¦ · Bosnian Civil War = Symmetric Nonconventional War...
Transcript of BOSNIA‘S CIVIL WAR - Masaryk University€¦ · Bosnian Civil War = Symmetric Nonconventional War...
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BOSNIA‘S CIVIL WAR: ORIGINS AND VIOLENCE
DYNAMICS
by Stathis N. Kalyvas and Nicholas Sambanis
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Structure of the Text
1. Background of the conflict
2. The COLLIER-HOEFFLER model „fit“ to the Bosnian Civil War
3. Dynamic of Violence in Bosnian Civil War
4. Conclusion(s)
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PART 1: Collier, Hoeffler and Bosnian Civil War
Collier-Hoeffler (CH) Model = econometric model which predicts the outbreak of civil conflict
Author applies the CH Model to Bosnian Civil War and observes any discrepancies
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PART 1: Collier, Hoeffler and Bosnian Civil War
CH Model variables:
PRIMARY COMODITY EXPORTS
GDP PER CAPITA
DIASPORA
GDP GROWTH
MONTAINIOUS TERRAIN
GEOGRAPHIC DISPERSION
POPULATION SIZE
SOCIAL FRACTIONALIZATION
ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION
RELIGIOUS FRACTINALIZATION
ETHNIC DOMINANCE
INCOME INEQUALITY
DEMOCRACY PEACE DURATION
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PART 1: Collier, Hoeffler and Bosnian Civil War
CH Model variables:
PRIMARY COMODITY EXPORTS
GDP PER CAPITA
DIASPORA
GDP GROWTH
MONTAINIOUS TERRAIN
GEOGRAPHIC DISPERSION
POPULATION SIZE
SOCIAL FRACTIONALIZATION
ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION
RELIGIOUS FRACTINALIZATION
ETHNIC DOMINANCE
INCOME INEQUALITY
DEMOCRACY PEACE DURATION
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Peacetime variable Extend the impact of previous war
Ethnic Fractionalization /Dominance < Ethnic Polarization
PART 1: Collier, Hoeffler and Bosnian Civil War
Level of Democracy • Extend the impact of political institutions
Income inequality • Switch to Interregional Inequality
• Woodward‘s theory about rapid liberalization
GDP Growth
Diaspora • Not just financial help
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PART 2: The Dynamic of Violence
Bosnian Civil War = Symmetric Nonconventional War
always generates greater levels of violence
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PART 2: The Dynamics of Violence
Bosnian Civil War = Symmetric Nonconventional War
always generates greater levels of violence
Ethnic Cleansing Greater violence at the beginning of the conflict, Northern Bosnia
Formation of vigilant groups and paramilitary forces However organized state forces were typically more restrained
Negative influence of the international community Negotiation increased military activities, changes in the dynamics of the conflict
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PART 2: The Dynamic of Violence
Bosnian Civil War = Symmetric Nonconventional War
always generates greater levels of violence
Ethnic Cleansing Greater violence at the beginning of the conflict, Northern Bosnia
Formation of vigilant groups and paramilitary forces However organized state forces were typically more restrained
Negative influence of the international community Negotiation increased military activities, changes in the dynamics of the conflict
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PART 2: The Dynamic of Violence
ETHNIC CLEAVAGES
VIOLENCE
„Rather than translating deep divisions into violent conflict, the evidence suggests a situation of rapid „ethnification“ of violence once the war began.“ (Kalyvas and Sambanis, 2005)
• Soldiers who volunteered just for vengeance • Evidence of violence with private motives • Large number of conscripts
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Conclusion
CH model does not fit perfectly
CH model itself changes after including data set from Bosnia
If there‘s ethnic polarization before the conflict, the war enlarges it significantly
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Thank you for your attention.
Alžběta Bajerová