Bolsones de crecimiento en una economía de bajo crecimiento George Gray Molina Fernanda Wanderley...

“Bolsones de crecimiento” en una economía de “bajo

crecimiento”George Gray Molina

Fernanda Wanderleyabril, 2007

Contents

I. Algunos datos sobre crecimiento

II. “Bolsones de crecimiento”

III. Estudios de caso

I. Algunos datos sobre crecimiento

Bolivian and Latin American economic

growth

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Latin America & Caribbean Bolivia

Bolivian Growth rate average (1,8 %)

GDP growth, 1980 - 2003

Public and private investment rates

Bolivia

8,96,7

7,9

6,7

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

1970 - 1980 1981 - 2000

Public investment Private investment

Latin America

6,511,2

5,1

12,1

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 - 1980 1981 - 2000

Public investment Private investment

Productivity rates of labor, capital and total factor productivity

Bolivia

2,2

1,31,2

1,8

1,0

-0,8

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5Labor Capital TFP

1960 - 1980 1981 - 2002

América Latina

1,75 1,761,94

1,511,18

-0,28-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5Labor Capital TFP

1960 - 1980 1981 - 2002

Productivity, investment and growth

TFP growth contribution

(%) Investment (% of GDP)

12 14 16 18 20 22 24

0,0 1,9 2,1 2,3 2,5 2,7 2,9 3,1

0,5 2,5 2,7 2,9 3,1 3,3 3,5 3,7

1,0 3 3,2 3,4 3,6 3,8 4 4,2

1,5 3,5 3,8 4,0 4,2 4,4 4,6 4,8

2,0 4,1 4,3 4,5 4,8 5,0 5,2 5,4

2,5 4,6 4,9 5,1 5,3 5,5 5,7 5,9

3,0 5,2 5,4 5,7 5,9 6,1 6,3 6,5

3,5 5,7 6 6,2 6,5 6,7 6,9 7,1

4,0 6,3 6,5 6,8 7 7,2 7,5 7,7

Bolivia in 90’s: investment -16.8 % and growth of TFP -1.2 %

Bolivia today: investment 13% and growth of TFP 0%

II. “Bolsones de crecimiento”

The export sector

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Traditional products No traditional products

Exports composition, 1980 – 2005 (millons of dollars)

The export sector

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

19

9419

95

1996

1997

1998

19

9920

0020

0120

02

2003

2004

2005

Metals and minerals Natural Gas and Others

Traditional products composition, 1980 – 2005 (% of total)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Algodón

Castaña

Cueros y Manufacturas de cueros

Azúcar

Café en grano

Productos de J oyería

Maderas y Manufacturas demaderasSoya y derivados

No traditional products composition, 1980 – 2005 (% of total)

The export sector

Export profile of Bolivia in 1980 - 1984

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

687 Tin (0,17)

061 Sugars, molasses and honey (0,18)

289 Ores and concentrates of precious metals (-0,12)

072 Cocoa (-0,22)

287 Ores and concentrates of base metals (-0,01)

057 Fruit and nuts fresh or dried (0,07)

699 Manufactures of base metal (-0,06)

248 Wood, simply w orked, and railw ay sleepers of w ood (-0,24)

081 Feeding stuff for animals (-0,18)

341 Gas natural and manufactured (0,24)

071 Coffee and coffee substitutes (-0,18)

211 Hides and skins (except furskins), raw (-0,23)

634 Veneers, plyw ood, etc. (-0,27)

001 Live animals (0,33)

Achievers in adversity

Declining markets

Underachievers

Champions

Increase in world market share of Bolivia 1980 - 1984

Worl

d t

rade g

row

th (

%)

1980 -

1984


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

274 Sulphur and unroasted iron pyrites (1,13)

072 Cocoa (0,80)

687 Tin (0,17)


071 Coffee and coffee substitutes (0,18)

047 Other cereal meals and flours (1,26)

699 Manufactures of base metal (-0,12)

287 Ores and concentrates of base metals (0,13)

081 Feeding stuff for animals (0,49)


112 Alcoholic beverages (0,31)

689 Non fer base metal (071)

263 Cotton (0,00)

289 Ores and concentrates of precious metals (0,69)

057 Fruit and nuts fresh or dried (0,81)

248 Wood, simply worked, and railway sleepers of wood (0,92)

211 Hides and skins, raw (1,25)

634 Veneers, plywood, particle board, and other wood (1,08)


Achievers in adversity

Declining markets

Underachievers Champions

Worl

d t

rade g

row

th (

%)

1985 -

1989


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-30 -10 10 30 50 70

047 Other cereal meals and flours (0,244)

071 Coffee and coffee substitutes (0,071)


423 Fixed vegetable oils, soft (0,280)

634 Veneers, plywood, etc (-0,280)

611 Leather (-0,187)



687 Tin (0,120)


278 Other crude minerals (1,162)

045 Cereals, unmilled (0,580)263 Cotton (0,00)


689 Non fer base metal (0,402)

273 Stone, sand and gravel (0,755)

248 Wood, simply worked, and railway sleepers of wood (0,104)

057 Fruits, nuts, fresh, dried (0,187)

512 Alcohols, phenols,(0,307)

842 Men's outwear non - knit

044 Maize (corn), nmilled (0,167)

211 Hides skins (-0,158)

268 Wool, animal hair (-0,174)


Worl

d t

rade g

row

th (

%)

1990-

1994

Achievers in adversityDeclining markets

Underachievers Champions


-12

-7

-2

3

8

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35




341 Gas natural and manufactured (-0,23)

687 Tin (0,13)

248 Wood, simply worked, and railway sleepers of wood (0,104) 423 Fixed vegetable oils, soft (0,16)

045 Cereals, unmilled (0,20)

611 Leather (0,05)


211 Hides skins (-0,02)

263 Cotton (0,00)

278 Other crude minerals (0,10)

634 Veneers, plywood, etc (0,12)

057 Fruits, nuts, fresh, dried (0,187)

689 Non fer base metal (0,16)112 Alcoholic beverages (0,31)

657 Spec textile fabrics, products (0,01)

072 Cocoa (0,06)

273 Stone, sand and gravel (0,07)699 Base metal manufactures (0,32)

842 Men's outwear non - knit (0,43)

842 Womwn's outwear

non - knit (0,45)

Worl

d t

rade g

row

th (

%)

1995-

1999



UnderachieversChampions

12670

12037

9353

7724

5809

5073

3018

4640

53364

17053

3372

13297

8742

11915

53086586

8630

5418

4069

12161

639625801

15013

5925

8506

63457

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%

2711 Petroleum gases (19,9)

8001 Unw rought tin (180,7)

1507 Soya bean oil & its fractions (90,9)

26,7 Lead ores and concentrates (32,0)

1201 Soya beans, w hether or not broken (6,0)

2528 Natural borates & concentrates (393,8)

0802 Nuts nes (4,1)

2617 Ores and concentrates (139,5)

8802 Aircraft & spacecraft (0,4)

2616 Precious metal ores and concentrates (606,3)

2608 Zinc ores and concentrates (234,2)

1208 Flour and meals of oil seeds (6,0)

7108 Gold unw rought (4,1)

6203 Men's suits, jackets, trousers etc & shorts (0,6)

6105 Men's shirts, knitted ir cricheted (17,1)

2709 Crude petroleum oil (1,3)

2710 Petroleum oils not crude (0,8)

1701 Cane or beet sugar (11,4)

2304 Soya bean, oil cake and other residues (95,1)

Worl

d t

rade g

row

th (

%)

2000 -

2004



UnderachieversChampions


Wood

Articles of jewellery

Cotton

Leather

III. Estudios de caso

Jewelry Export Industry

Gold Jewelry export in La Paz, 2001 - 2004

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2001 2002 2003 20040

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Volume (tons) Value (US$ m)

Volume (tons)

Value (US$)


Exportadores Bolivianos (EB) cost structure

70

12

117

17,5

3

2,751,75

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

EB % EB $

Labor

Utility

Indirect cost

Raw materials

Rafaela Pitti’s (RP) cost structure


40%

25%

22%

13%

17

11

9

5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

RP % RP $

Indirectcost andInputs

Labor

Utility

Rawmaterial

Manufactured wood products

Mabet’s cost structure

35%

22%

18%

10%

11%4%

61.25

38.5

31.5

17.5

19.257.O

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

MABET % MABET $

Drying

Transport

Inputs

Utility

Labor

Raw material

Manufactured wood products

Soex’s cost structure

48

18

16

765

86,4

32,4

28,8

12,610,8

9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

SOEX % SOEX $

Transport

Inputs

Drying

Utility

Labor

Raw material

IV. Conclusiones

Conclusiones...

1. De un total de 1,600 productos exportables entre 1986-2005, 23 fueron “campeones”. Otros 160 productos fueron “campeones potenciales”.

2. Ambos grupos son “camellos” en el desierto. Articulan hoy a 330,000 personas en la economía popular urbana y rural.

3. Encontramos tres tipos de “camellos”: los commodities (como el gas), las exportaciones no tradicionales sensibles a precio (como la soya) y las exportaciones no tradicionales sensibles a calidad (madera, joyería, nuevos productos).

Conclusiones...

4. Encontramos que cada tipo de “camello” tiene diferentes “restricciones vinculantes”. Esto implica la necesidad de una política de desarrollo desigual y combinado.

5. Para los commodities con vitales las restricciones “estructurales”. Para las exportaciones sensibles a precio son vitales las restricciones “específicas a sector”. Para las exportaciones sensibles a calidad con vitales las restricciones “específicas a unidad productiva”.

6. Queda pendiente estimar el peso de las restricciones vinculantes: ¿es posible saltarse fases del desarrollo?

Conclusions

Bolsones de crecimiento en una economía de bajo crecimiento George Gray Molina Fernanda Wanderley...

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