BOILING THE HUMAN CONVENIENCE AND CONFUSION ON THE PATH TO THE SINGULARITY Tony Greenberg & Alex...
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BOILING THE HUMAN CONVENIENCE AND CONFUSION ON THE PATH TO THE SINGULARITY Tony Greenberg & Alex Veytsel RampRate Eric Pulier ServiceMesh
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Transcript of BOILING THE HUMAN CONVENIENCE AND CONFUSION ON THE PATH TO THE SINGULARITY Tony Greenberg & Alex...
BOILING THE HUMAN
CONVENIENCE AND CONFUSIONON THE PATH TO THE SINGULARITY
Tony Greenberg & Alex VeytselRampRate
Eric PulierServiceMesh
BASIC CHALLENGES
Getting There from Here: Change is not inherently positive. Value-driven direction is vital.
Land of the Lost: Exponential Tech can overwhelm Linear Human decision-making.
Madoff’s Law: Anywhere a profit can be made, it will be, regardless of human consequences
THE CONCERN:
Madoff’s Law could thrive, creating an ugly future.
STUMBLING INTO THE LAND OF THE LOST
Technological Progress
Human-Scale Adaptation
Develo
pm
en
t
Time
The LandOf the
Lost
INNOVATING PAST THE CHALLENGES…MAYBE
Technological Progress
Business-Model Adaptation
Human-Scale Adaptation Exploitative
Business Models
Failure to
Innovate
BOILING THE FROG
DRAWING THE LINE
BUSINESS MODEL ADAPTATION
YESTERDAY’S REVOLUTIONS
Revolutions in Connecting… People to People Information to Information People to Information
And Now in Sharing…
BUILDING THE NEXT REVOLUTION: Bandwidth Heading to Zero
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Cost to Deliver 1 GB of Video
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Cost to Deliver 1 GB of Video
BUILDING THE NEXT REVOLUTION:Storage Heading to Zero
EXPONENTIAL “LAWS”
TRANSFORMING BUSINESS
Moore’s Law: Number of transistors on a circuit doubles and price halves every 12 to 18 months.
Metcalfe’s Law: A network’s value rises based on the square of the number of users.
Zuckerberg’s Law: The amount of information shared between people doubles every 12 to 18 months.
Pulier’s Law: The time and cost to launch a venture that reaches 100M people halves every 12 to 18 months.
THE CONVENIENCE EFFECT
AMAZON GOOGLE FACEBOOK TWITTER ZYNGA FOURSQUARE
Then… we turn up the heat a little more…
•Default becomes “open”
•Privacy becomes a “process”
WITH GREAT POWER…
…COMES GREAT RESPONSIBILITY Or just a great opportunity to make a LOT of
money…
INNOVATION: SOME MARKETS ARE WILDLY SUCCESSFUL
1943 (apocryphal) target market: 5 units worldwide (faux photo)
2009 market: 274 million units per year
INNOVATION: the PROMISE
In 1962 In 1989
Innovation: The PAYOFF?
FAILURE TO INNOVATE
Technological Progress
Business Model Adaptation
Human Scale Adaptation
Failure to
Innovate
EXPLOITED IN THE LAND OF THE LOST
Technological Progress
Business Model Adaptation
Human Scale Adaptation Exploitative
Business Models
THE PARADOX OF CHOICE
happiness
choices
Alfred Toffler
Greg Easterbrook
FLEEING FROM CHOICE……TO CONFORMITY
CUSTOMER DISSERVICE:2010’S WORST COMPANIES
21 of 32 nominees are pure services companies
3 of 4 finalists- The eventual “winner”?
The Lesson: Services Markets Reward Poor Customer Service
ARE WE BUILDING A TRANSHUMANIST SERVICES MARKET?
Future Services
Virtual reality Bio-Uploading Cryonics Nanotech
OR ARE WE BUILDING A… Transhumanist DISSERVICES Market?
HUMAN-SCALE ADAPTATION:SHIFTING THE CURVE
MUCH ADO ABOUT… SOMETHING?
Fear mongering not the same as organizing behavior
change…
We Need Systemic Solutions.
YOUR ASSIGNMENT:HOW TO CREATE THE RIGHT MARKET?
Focus on:
More InnovationLess Exploitation
Resources needed: Regulation – In time? Not co-opted? Covenants – How many altruists are there? Impartial Arbiters – Who’s really impartial? Individual Choice – Did you go open source?
Did you ditch Facebook?
WHERE NEXT?
ERIC’S IDEAS
Create A Singularity Bill of Rights for humans and machines.
The Singularity Stock Exchange SSE rates companies against its Bill of Rights. Capture the conscious capitalist!
The Next Green Movement. Encourage support, pacts with higher-ranked companies.
Create predictable correlation between stock price and market success with Singularity Stock Exchange price.
ALEX’S IDEAS
Divorce political organization from geography
Create self-selecting communities Virtual societies compete for
citizens More citizens = More influence Political service becomes political
imperative
TONY’S IDEAS
A world without exploitative sales and salesmanship
But How? Awareness. Expectations. Accountability/Transparency Automagical software that meshes people/technology
needs and consciousness
THANK YOU
Write us at:
This presentation will be available at www.BoilTheMan.com
