BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April...

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BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017 Ivan Glasenberg CEO

Transcript of BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April...

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BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017Ivan Glasenberg CEO

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Important notice concerning this document including forward looking statements

This document contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, “forward looking statements” which are prospective in nature. These forward looking statements may be identified by the use of forward looking terminology, or the negative thereof such as “outlook”, "plans", "expects" or "does not expect", "is expected", "continues", "assumes", "is subject to", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "aims", "forecasts", "risks", "intends", "positioned", "predicts", "anticipates" or "does not anticipate", or "believes", or variations of such words or comparable terminology and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "should", “shall”, "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved. Such statements are qualified in their entirety by the inherent risks and uncertainties surrounding future expectations. Forward-looking statements are not based on historical facts, but rather on current predictions, expectations, beliefs, opinions, plans, objectives, goals, intentions and projections about future events, results of operations, prospects, financial condition and discussions of strategy.

By their nature, forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Glencore’s control. Forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and may and often do differ materially from actual results. Important factors that could cause these uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those discussed in Glencore’s 2016 Annual Report.

Neither Glencore nor any of its associates or directors, officers or advisers, provides any representation, assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of the events expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements in this document will actually occur. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements which only speak as of the date of this document. Other than in accordance with its legal or regulatory obligations (including under the UK Listing Rules and the Disclosure and Transparency Rules of the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the Rules Governing the Listing of Securities on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited and the Listing Requirements of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Limited), Glencore is not under any obligation and Glencore and its affiliates expressly disclaim any intention, obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This document shall not, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in the business or affairs of Glencore since the date of this document or that the information contained herein is correct as at any time subsequent to its date.

No statement in this document is intended as a profit forecast or a profit estimate and no statement in this document should be interpreted to mean that earnings per Glencore share for the current or future financial years would necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings per Glencore share.

This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities. The making of this document does not constitute a recommendation regarding any securities.

The companies in which Glencore plc directly and indirectly has an interest are separate and distinct legal entities. In this document, “Glencore”, “Glencore group” and “Group” are used for convenience only where references are made to Glencore plc and its subsidiaries in general. These collective expressions are used for ease of reference only and do not imply any other relationship between the companies. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer collectively to members of the Group or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies.

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Summary

Lomas Bayas copper mine, Chile

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Summary

• The right commodities for the future

• The commodities that fuel economic growth are changing as key emerging markets mature

– The transition from early to mid and late cycle commodities benefits our core assets (copper, cobalt, nickel, zinc, thermal coal)

• Government policies and transformational shifts in technology have accelerated the economic breakeven point for electric vehicles and energy storage systems

• The electric vehicle revolution is underway and its impact is likely to be felt faster than expected – potentially creating material new sources of demand for enabling underlying commodities (copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium and manganese)

• Investment in new frontiers will be necessary to ensure supply is up to the challenge

• Sustaining copper mine supply is increasingly challenging – mined grades continue to fall, sector reinvestment has collapsed, exploration success has been limited and the future pipeline of projects is at pre-supercycle lows

• Higher commodity prices and a willingness to access resources in new geographies will be required to ensure supply can feed demand over the longer run

• Well positioned for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead

• Our highly cash generative defensive business model, including marketing, adapts quickly to changing conditions

• Relentless focus on maximising value creation through balancing business reinvestment/growth and shareholder returns

• Backed by a world-class management team, entrepreneurial culture and track record of value creation

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The right commodities for the future

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From despair early last year …

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… to emerging optimism in the new year …

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… to an uncertain outlook today …

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… there is still scope for cautious optimism in the short-term

• Despite market concerns around Chinese monetary tightening, a repeat of the extreme weakness seen in 2015 appears less likely given stronger external demand and higher private sector investment

• Infrastructure contractor order data indicate positive Chinese demand momentum through 2017

• Key regional manufacturing data remain positive, European manufacturing PMI at six year highs

• Forecast 2017 demand growth remains positive

• Supply disruptions/cutbacks support improving fundamentals for most base metals and thermal coal

Strong Q1 Chinese infrastructure contractor order intake(1)

-20%

0%

20%

40%

1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17

y/y growth 4-quarter trailing growth

9

Expansionary manufacturing conditions persist(3)

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jul-

15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

Jul-

16

Sep-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan

-17

Ma

r-17

USA Eurozone China

2017 demand forecasts remain positive(2)

0%

2%

4%

6%

Al

Cu

Zn

Pb Ni

Iron

Ore

T.C

oa

l

2003-2015 CAGR2011-2016 CAGR2017F

Notes: (1) Citi Research, 4 May 2017, 1Q’17 order intake up 45%y/y, Infrastructure contractor order intake in China. (2) Annual demand growth, Source: Wood Mackenzie, Morgan Stanley, Citi Research, Glencore

estimates. (3) Manufacturing PMI data, Markit for USA and Eurozone, Caxin for China.

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Longer term fundamentals are more compelling: The commodities that fuel maturing economies are changing …

• Not all commodities are equal, differentiation is increasingly important

• Key emerging markets are maturing

• The early cycle commodities that underpinned the supercycle boom in fixed asset investment are being displaced as demand patterns shift in favour of mid and late cycle commodities in line with rising levels of income per capita

• Our “Tier 1” commodity portfolio of metals, thermal coal and agricultural products is well placed to benefit from this transition

10

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

$US GDP per capita (real 2010)

Mid cycle

Late cycle

GLEN Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4

Early Cycle Mid Cycle Late Cycle

Iron O

re, C

okin

g c

oal,

Manganese

Cobalt,

Oil/

Gas, P

GM

s

Dia

monds, T

herm

al C

oal,

Agricultura

l pro

ducts

Copper,

Zin

c, N

ickel,

Alu

min

ium

, Lead

Glencore most exposed to mid

and late cycle commodities(2)

Illustrative commodity intensity

curves(1)

Early cycle

Com

moditie

s w

eig

hte

d b

y contr

ibution to 2

018F

EB

ITD

A

Notes: (1) Stylised intensity curves based on developed countries, indexed to 100 at maximum. (2) Source UBS, commodities weighted by contribution to 2018F EBITDA

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• China’s dominance of global commodities demand is not without precedent

• The UK and USA accounted for levels of demand during their industrialisiation phases that were higher than China’s share of global demand today

• The rapid industrialisation and urbanisation of developing economies represents a material enlargement of the global consumer base that will underpin the transition away from early cycle commodities as incomes rise

• The looming EV/ESS revolution looks set to unlock material new sources of demand for enabling underlying commodities

• Rapid technology advances in battery chemistry along with strong government support is accelerating the economic break even point of electric vehicles vs combustion engines

• Emerging transportation sector goals aimed largely at pollution/carbon reduction can only be met with new forms of mobility 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

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45

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72

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07

20

16

11

Share of global copper demand(1)

UK

USA

China

… supporting a positive long-term demand outlook

Source: (1) 18 April 2017, Bernstein European Metals and Mining: What if China were the US?, page 4.

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The electric vehicle revolution needs our commodities

• The electric vehicle revolution is happening and its impact is likely to be felt faster than expected

• Virtually all automotive players now accelerating their investment in / adoption of EV technologies

• Governments mandating increasingly aggressive emission targets that can only be met by alternative forms of mobility

• Supply chains are evolving rapidly with battery producers becoming critical players

• EV/ESS transition will require a significant change in material flows of the global economy including the installation / rebuild / replacement of supporting EV infrastructure

• China emerging as the global leader in EV

• Supported by a $361bn investment target in renewable energy generation by 2020(4)

• Targeting 5 million cumulative EV sales and 4.8 million charging points by 2020(5)

• 8% of 2018 vehicle sales potentially required to be domestically produced EV. 2016 vehicle sales of 28 million units (EV:300k)(6)

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The impact of electrification per vehicle: c.160kg Cu

Car (EV-ICEV)(7)

+ c.100kg Copper

(Contained in Cu motors

and inverters for motors

and charging

Battery (250kg)(7)

(NCM 1,1,1)

+ c.38kg Copper

+ c.11kg Cobalt

+ c.11kg Nickel

Charging Point(5)

+ c.20kg Copper

• Ambitious global targets …

• Major countries targeting cumulative sales of 13.4 million BEV/PHEV vehicles by 2020, and an estimated c.52 million by 2025(5)

• … will have an outsize impact on metals markets

• 2020e: +c.373kt Cu demand, +c.40kt Ni demand(5)

• 2025e: +1.65Mt Cu demand, +c.210kt Ni demand(5)

• 2035e: Rapid adoption scenario where c.95% of global vehicle sales are EV would require: +20Mt Cu, +1.8Mt Ni, +679kt Co(7)

• Higher commodity prices are required to incentivise reinvestment to offset a declining resource and aging asset base

Source: (1) Autocar, 27 February 2017, Norway to phase out petrol and diesel cars by 2025. (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025. (3) The Independent, 1

May 2017, India to make every single car electric by 2030 in bid to tackle pollution that kills millions. (4) Reuters, 5 January 2017, China to plow $361 billion into renewable fuel by 2020. (5) Exane BNP Paribas, 18 April

2017, Electric dreams (are made of these). (6) FT, 30 April 2017, Carmakers grapple with China’s electric vehicle drive. (7) Bernstein European Metals and Mining, 18 April 2017, The Electric Revolution, Part 2: Raw

Material Bottlenecks and commodity winners in the green economy.

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The supply challenge

Copper anodes, Townsville refinery, Australia

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

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90

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96

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98

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00

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02

20

04

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06

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16

E

20

18

E

Sustaining copper mine supply is progressively more challenging

0.7%

0.9%

1.1%

1.3%

1.5%

1.7%

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90

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94

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98

20

02

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06

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18

e

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e

20

26

e

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e

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34

e

20

38

e

14

Mined copper grades continue to

decline(1) …

Sector reinvestment has

collapsed (1,2) …

Average copper

grade processed

Source: (1) Bernstein European Metals and Mining, 8 March 2017, Copper & Gold – Not a production wall … it’s a production cliff! (2) Selected producers includes Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Anglo American, Glencore, Vale,

First Quantum, South 32, Antofagasta. Estimates for 2016-2018 based on company guidance and approved projects only.

Aggregated

capex/EBITDA for

selected major

producers

Average

Exploration has been

increasingly unsuccessful (1) …

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

19

01

19

20

19

39

19

58

19

77

19

96

20

15

Growth rate in

global copper

resource base by

year of discovery

– 5yr y/y rolling

average

y/y change

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0

50

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Sustaining copper mine supply is progressively more challenging

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0

5000

10000

15000

20000

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92

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94

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96

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50

Supply is peaking in 2018 and declines thereafter at

3.5% CAGR with no reinvestment (3)

$bn capex

copper

Copper

capex (LHS)

Copper

mine

supply

Source: (1) Copper mine project pipeline comprises the total production volume of projects categorised as highly probable and probable by Wood Mackenzie’s Global copper long-term outlooks from 2001 to 2016, indexed

change from 2001. (2) Annual average LME cash copper price, source Wood Mackenzie and Bloomberg. (3) Bernstein European Metals and Mining, 8 March 2017, Copper & Gold – Not a production wall … it’s a

production cliff!

LME

Copper

(LHS $/t)(2)

Copper mine

project pipeline

(RHS indexed

2001=100)(1)

Copper mine project pipeline now below

pre-supercycle lows

kt copper

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A declining resource base and aging assets will require miners to access new resources in key new geographies to meet future demand

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MexicoCopper, Iron

Ore, Thermal

Coal, Zinc

ColombiaThermal Coal

EcuadorCopper

VenezuelaCopper,

Thermal Coal,

Nickel

TurkeyCopper

Mauritania,

Sierra

Leone,

GuineaIron Ore

Equatorial Guinea,

CameroonOil & Gas

MozambiqueThermal Coal

South AfricaIron Ore, Thermal Coal,

Coking Coal, Zinc, FeCr,

Nickel, Diamonds

TanzaniaNickel

PanamaCopper

UkraineIron Ore, Thermal

Coal, Coking Coal,

Agriculture

Republic of

CongoIron Ore

DR CongoCopper, Cobalt,

Diamonds

BotswanaCopper, Nickel,

Diamonds

RussiaCopper, Nickel, Iron Ore, Thermal

Coal, Coking Coal, Zinc, Agriculture

MongoliaCopper, Thermal

Coal, Coking Coal

IranCopper, Iron

Ore, Zinc

Philippines, Papua

New Guinea, New

CaledoniaCopper, Nickel

IndonesiaThermal coal,

Coking coal,

Nickel

IndiaCopper, Iron Ore,

Zinc, Thermal

coal, Nickel,

Agriculture

ChinaCopper, Thermal Coal,

Coking Coal, Iron Ore,

Zinc, Nickel, Aluminium,

Agriculture

BrazilCopper, Iron

Ore, Nickel,

Agriculture

ArgentinaCopper, Agriculture

PolandCopper, Agriculture

ZambiaCopper

KazakhstanCopper, Zinc,

Iron Ore, FeCr,

oil

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We already have a footprint in many of these countries (and a track record of navigating challenging jurisdictions) …

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…comprising a large-scale low-cost asset portfolio of the right “Tier 1” commodities …

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2016 Copper Cobalt Zinc Lead Nickel FeCr Coal

Glencore own

source production(1)1.4Mt 28kt 1.1Mt 294kt 115kt 1.5Mt 125Mt total

115.4Mt Thermal

Idled capacity c.0.4Mt c.0.20kt c.0.5Mt c.100kt

Global mine supply(2) 20Mt c.97kt 12.4Mt 5.3Mt 2.0Mt c.10.8Mt 864MtThermal Coal

Production ranking(3) Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Top 3

Full mine cost(4) 87c/lb By-product16c/lb

-5c/lb with Au CrBy-product 265c/lb $18/t margin

Average price(1) 220c/lb $12/lb 95c/lb 85c/lb 436c/lb 90c/lb $57/t

Cost quartile(5) 1st By-product 1st By-product 1st/2nd 1stHigh margin

seaborne

supplier

Marketing volumes

sold(1)3.5Mt c.38kt 2Mt 900kt 221kt 2.2Mt 108Mt

Source: (1) 2016 Preliminary results. (2) Source Morgan Stanley – The Price Deck 2Q 2017 for 2016 total Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni and Thermal Coal supply. Macquarie Commodities Compendium, 19 January 2017 for FeCr and Co.

(3) Wood Mackenzie for Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn. SNL for Co. AME for Thermal coal. Heinz H Pariser for FeCr. Glencore estimate for coal. (4) See slide 21 of Preliminary Results 2016 presentation for basis of calculation. Full mine

cost includes all cash costs to allow reconciliation and generation of EBITDA. (5) Glencore estimates

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… underpinned by a highly cash generative marketing business with global reach

• Our marketing activities involve the physical movement of commodities to where they are in most demand

• We generate earnings as a fee-like income from physical asset handling and arbitrage, as well as blending and optimisation opportunities

• Lower sensitivity to commodity prices and volatility

• Marketing is countercyclical from a cash flow perspective, as funding requirements are highly linked to commodity prices. The business requires less working capital during periods of falling prices, which helps mitigate the generally negative effects of lower prices on our industrial assets

• Virtually all our marketed volumes are hedged or pre-sold to minimise price exposure. Our use of hedging instruments results in profitability being overwhelmingly determined by volume activity and associated value-added supply chain margins, and other marketing conditions, rather than by the absolute flat price itself

• A low cost of capital, stable cost base and low capex requirements underpin resilient and high returns on equity

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0

500

1000

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2500

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200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

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201

5

201

6

201

7F

Long-term

Guidance range:

+2017: $2.2-$3.2bn

Marketing Adjusted EBIT ($M)

Gu

ida

nc

e:

$2

.3b

n t

o $

2.6

bn

Reduction to

reflect the sale

of 50% of

Glencore

Agriculture

Page 20: BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025.

Investing for the future

Drag line, Tweefontein coal mine, South Africa

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Investing for the future

Earnings genuinely diversified by activity, commodity, currency and geography (1)

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Leading low cost portfolio

of “Tier 1” commodities

positioned to feed the

changing needs of maturing

economies

• Key supply positions in the

commodities (copper / cobalt / nickel)

that underpin the looming EV/ESS

revolution

• Major producer/trader of other mid and

late cycle commodities such as zinc,

thermal coal and agricultural products

• Significant copper and zinc capacity

awaiting restart

North

America

South

America

South Africa

CISAustralia

EuropeOther AfricaCopper

Zinc

Ferro

alloys

Agri

Oil

Marketing

Nickel

Coal

Notes: (1) 2016 Adjusted EBITDA split calculated pre-coal hedging impact and corporate overheads. Geographic split based on operating asset EBITDA.

Well positioned for the

challenges and opportunities

that lie ahead

• Highly cash generative

defensive business model,

including marketing, that adapts

quickly to changing conditions

• Relentless focus on maximising

value creation through

balancing business

reinvestment/growth and

shareholder returns

• Backed by a world-class

management team,

entrepreneurial culture and track

record of value creation

Page 23: BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025.

Historical sector performance

Nickel crowns, Nikkelverk, Norway

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Post 2006 – sector chased expected volume growth

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• Excessive focus on demand forecasting

• Metal demand assumed to almost double 2005-2020

• Emerging market urbanisation

• 2x long-term historic growth trend

• Bubble charts became the norm

• Many shareholders/analysts were cheerleaders

• Increasingly marginal projects proposed and approved

• “If I don’t someone else will” supply mantra

• Fear of missing out on higher prices/market share

• Market rewarded growth pipelines however tenuous

• 8%-12% CAGR volume growth targeted

• To match expected volume growth

• Everyone else’s supply assumed to be “constrained” amid extreme shortages of people/mills/trucks etc

• Managements failed to notice the contradiction

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The global copper market was forecast to double in

size by 2020 (Mt Cu)

2008 Forecast

global copper

market (1)

2016 Q4

Forecast global

copper market (2)

Notes: (1) Source industry peer presentation. (2) Wood Mackenzie Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2016, annual copper demand

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Resulting in a sustained period of over-investment …

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2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Precious: $211bn

Base Metals: $206bn

Bulks: $149bn

Diversifieds: $496bn

Sector invested more than $1 trillion of capex(1) ...

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

… and significantly increased supply in most

commodities(2) …

+110% Aluminium

+80% Iron ore+79% Thermal coal

+72% Lead

+79% Coking coal

+47% Copper

+47% Nickel+45% Zinc

Notes: (1) Cumulative capex from 2003 segmented by company type, Source: Citi Research, Morgan Stanley. (2) Annual supply indexed to 2003, Source Citi, Morgan Stanley, Wood Mackenzie, USGS

Page 26: BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025.

… leading to sustained deflation 2011-2015 …

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

26

… helping to lower mining unit costs (1) ... … along with commodity prices (2) …

Copper

Iron ore

Zinc

Thermal

coal

Copper

AluminiumNickel

Met Coal

Iron ore

Thermal CoalZinc

Notes: (1) C1 cash costs (50th percentile) indexed to 2003, Source Bernstein, Wood Mackenzie, Morgan Stanley. (2) Indexed to 2003, Source: Citi, Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg, Wood Mackenzie. (3) Sector annual

free cash flow from 2003 to 2015 defined as operating cash flow less reported capex. Source Citi Research, Factset

Page 27: BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Alu

min

ium

Coppe

r

Zin

c

Le

ad

Nic

kel

Iron

Ore

The

rma

l C

oal

2003-2015 CAGR 2011-2016 CAGR

27Notes: (1) Sector annual free cash flow from 2003 to 2015 defined as operating cash flow less reported capex. Source Citi Research, Factset. (2) Annual demand growth, Source: Wood Mackenzie, Morgan Stanley,

Citi Research, Glencore estimates.

-20

0

20

40

60

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

… generating just $370bn of free cash flow(1) …

$bn operating cash

flow less capex

… despite demand growth (2)

… and weak cash flows, despite healthy demand growth

Page 28: BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025.

Appendix

Cobalt, Mutanda mine, DRC

Page 29: BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025.

Our business model

We move commodities from where they are plentiful to where they are needed …

… sourcing physical volumes from our industrial assets and third parties that we market around the world …

… to generate margin opportunities that underpin a high-return low-risk business with a 40+ year track record of profitability

29

Page 30: BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025.

Fully integrated from mine to customer

• Scale and commodity diversity

• Proven ability to respond rapidly to changing industry dynamics

• Core competences in commodity marketing, logistics, risk management and financing

• Leading industrial asset portfolio of the right commodities for the future along with strong growth prospects

• Diversified position across multiple commodities, suppliers and customers

• World-class management team, entrepreneurial culture and track record of value creation

30

Exploration

Mining /

Producing

Processing /

Refining

Blending &

Optimising /

Logistics

Marketing &

Trading

Exploration

Mining /

Producing

Processing /

Refining

Blending &

Optimising /

Logistics

Marketing &

Trading

Traditional

MinerTrader

Page 31: BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025.

A strong investment grade balance sheet

• Capital structure repositioned to provide greater balance sheet strength and flexibility

• Net funding and Net debt reduced by $14.7bn and $14.1bn respectively to $32.6bn and $15.5bn over the last 18 months

• $2.6bn of executed bond tenders in October and December 2016 caps post-2017 maturities at c.$3bn in any one year (down from $4-$5bn)

• Committed available liquidity of $16.7bn at end of 2016, comfortably covers bond maturities for the next five years

• Strong BBB/Baa ratings target and maintenance remains a top priority

• Proactive actions in 2015/2016 demonstrate our commitment

• Credit ratings upgraded to BBB (positive) /Baa2 (stable)

• Targeting maximum 2x Net debt/Adjusted EBITDA through the cycle

• Delivery of robust cash flow coverage ratios at year end 2016:

– FFO to Net Debt of 50%

– Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA of 1.51x

• Optimised capital structure provides less risk, more flexibility and stability of distributions

31

Net debt ($bn)

FFO to Net debt

28%

29% 29%

33%

30%

26%

25%

50%

H12013

FY2013

H12014

FY2014

H12015

FY2015

H12016

FY2016

34.835.8 37.6

30.5

29.6

25.9

23.6

15.5

H12013

FY2013

H12014

FY2014

H12015

FY2015

H12016

FY2016

49.2

52.2 54.4

49.847.3

41.239.0

32.6

H12013

FY2013

H12014

FY2014

H12015

FY2015

H12016

FY2016

Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA

Net funding ($bn)

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.4

2.7

3.02.9

H12013

FY2013

H12014

FY2014

H12015

FY2015

H12016

FY2016

1.51x

Targeting maximum 2x

Page 32: BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025.

Maximising value creation through capital allocation

Maintain strong

BBB/Baa

Equity cash flows

$1bn fixed Marketing distribution

Min. 25% Industrial

distribution

M&A + Other

• Our capital allocation framework balances preservation of our optimal capital structure along with business reinvestment/growth and shareholder distributions

• 2017 cash distribution of $1bn, to be paid in equal tranches in H1 and H2 2017

• 2018 cash distribution (in respect of 2017 cash flows) will comprise:

• Fixed $1bn base distribution reflecting the resilience, predictability and stability of Marketing cash flows

– Comfortably covered from trough cash flow generation in 2016 and further supported by structurally lower gearing and a longer/smoother bond maturity profile

• Variable distribution representing a minimum payout of 25% of Industrial free cash flows

• Fixed and variable distribution components to be confirmed annually

• Based on prevailing conditions and outlook

• Variable distribution percentage potentially increased, as appropriate

• In context of overall balance sheet requirements, surplus capital position and subject to prevailing conditions & outlook

• Cash distribution generally favoured versus buyback given inherent volatility in prices

32

1

2

34

5

Notes: (1) Equity cash flows defined as Adjusted EBITDA less tax, interest and other, sustaining and expansionary capex and dividends paid to minorities. (2) Fixed marketing distribution of $1bn represents c.50%

of pre-WC Marketing free cash flow, (3) Minimum 25% Variable distribution from Industrial free cash flow. (4) M&A + Other includes consideration around portfolio optimisation, asset monetisation, recycling and

debt reduction. Reinvestment screened against rigorous criteria.

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

Page 33: BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

Coal, 5.8Coal, 5.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

2030New Policy

2013Actual

Renewable Bio Energy Hydro Nuclear

33Sources: (1) Glencore analysis. (2) IEA WEO 2016. 2030 New Policy Scenario reflects policies that governments have implemented by mid-2015, as well as those that the IEA expects governments to implement over the next 25

years. (3) Btce : billion tonnes of coal equivalent – standardised coal quantity using coal with energy content of 7000kcal/kg or 29.31 GJ/t. Converted to metric tonnes based on global average coal energy of 4850kcal/kg nar. (4)

Platts World Electric Power Plant Database, Glencore analysis, IEA WEO 2016. Information about how our business operates, our position on climate change and how we are managing the opportunities and challenges of climate

change across our business are detailed in http://www.glencore.com/assets/sustainability/doc/sd_reports/GLEN-Climate-change-considerations-for-our-business-20160613.pdf

Global primary energy demand (Btce)(2,3)

19.3Btce

23.1Btce

Installed coal generating capacity

(GW) (4)

China

North America

Europe

India

Other Asia

Mediterranean

Japan

Taiwan

Asia

dominates

future coal

demand

• Drivers of seaborne coal demand in Asia well known

• Supply deficit supports existing assets and demand for high-energy coal

• Glencore assets well positioned on the industry cost curve

• Global energy demand growth requires all fuel sources

• IEA modelling of nationally determined contributions shows absolute coal demand continues to grow to meet the needs of growing populations, especially in Asia

• Overall portfolio well positioned to respond to climate change opportunities (nickel, cobalt, copper)

• Board-level commitment to identify opportunities to reduce GHG footprint and respond to risks posed by climate change

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

Industry natural

supply decline at

5% p.a.

Seaborne coal supply decays rapidly

without further investment (Mt)(1)

Glencore portfolio

29% 25%

Glencore’s coal portfolio resilience

(2)

Page 34: BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025.

We are well positioned for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead

34

Earnings diversified by

commodity and geography(1)

North

America

South

America

South Africa

CISAustralia

EuropeOther Africa

Coal

Copper

Zinc

Nickel

Ferro

alloys

Agri

Oil

Marketing

The right commodity mix to

feed the changing needs of

maturing economies

Outstanding costs for our

key commodities – 2017F(2)

Significant growth potential:

capacity awaiting restart

Well capitalised asset base:

modest go forward capex

Strong IG balance sheet:

less risk/more stability

Maximizing value creation

through capital allocation

FCF generative across the

cycle at spot prices on an

annualised basis(3)

Cu+c.400ktpa

Zn+c.500ktpa

Cu

Ni

Zn

Coal

$4.4bn

$2.8bn

$0.6bn

$3.8bn

Spot EBITDA $14.6bn

Spot FCF $6.9bn

50%ND/Adj.EBITDA

FFO/ND

2013 2014 2015 2016

1.5x

Maintain strong

BBB/Baa

Equity cash flows

$1bn fixed Marketing distribution

Min. 25% Industrial

distribution

M&A + Other

Cu Zn

NiThermal

Coal

89c/lb

247c/lb$28/tmargin @ $44/t

Notes: (1) 2016 Adjusted EBITDA split calculated pre-coal hedging impact and corporate overheads. Geographic split based on operating asset EBITDA. (2) See slide 21 for production volumes underlying 2017

cost forecasts. (3) Key commodity department spot annualised EBITDA calculations based on costs on slide 11 and production from slide 21. LME spot prices as of 20 February 2017 for metals, Cal17 NEWC

forward curve for thermal coal as at 20 February 2017. Spot annualised FCF calculated from Spot EBITDA after deducting cash taxes and interest of $3.6bn, capex of $4.1bn. Excludes working capital changes

and distributions.

• Key supply positions in the

commodities (cobalt/nickel) that

underpin the battery chemistry

likely to power future EV and

storage batteries

• Major producer of other mid

and late cycle commodities

such as copper, zinc and

thermal coal

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09p

f

20

10p

f

20

11p

f

20

12p

f

20

13p

f

20

14

20

15

20

16

+201

7

c.$4bn

• plus multi-commodity brownfield

growth options when the time is right

-10c/lb10c/lb pre Au

Ind. Other $0.6bn

Mktg $2.4bn

Page 35: BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025.

Our values

Safety

Our first priority in the workplace is to protect the health and well-being of all of our people. We

take a proactive approach to health and safety; our goal is continuous improvement in the

prevention of occupational disease and injuries

Entrepreneurialism

Our approach fosters the highest level of professionalism, personal ownership and entrepreneurial

spirit in all our people while never compromising on their safety and well-being. This is important to

our success and the superior returns we aim to achieve for all our stakeholders

Simplicity

We aim to achieve our key deliverables efficiently as a path to industry-leading returns, while

maintaining a clear focus on excellence, quality, sustainability and continuous improvement in

everything we do

Responsibility

We recognise that our activities can have an impact on our society and the environment. We care

profoundly about our performance in relation to environmental protection, human rights and health

and safety

Openness

We value open relationships and communication based on integrity, co-operation, transparency

and mutual benefit, with our people, our customers, our suppliers, governments and society in

general

35

Page 36: BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017bacf07ad-e289... · (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025.

Glencore in numbers

36

Globalfootprint

HighlyDiversified

UniqueMarket insight

Breadth of scale