7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

1/22

B ba bt kh thi v d tr

ngoi hiTrilemma and international reserves-quadrilemma

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

2/22

B ba bt kh thi

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

3/22

D tr ngoi hi

Bt c mt loi qu d tr no m c thc lu thng gia cc ngn hng trungngca cc ncvi nhau. D trngoihi l mt hnh thc thanh ton c cc

ngn hng ny chpnhn. Dtrngoihi c th l vng, ngoitnh

la, euro, SDR IMF. SDR ( special drawing rights-quyn rt vn

c bit) l mt hnh thc khc ca d trngoihi, SDRcto rabiIMFnhmb sung vo khong d tr ang hin hu

ca ccncthnh vin.

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

4/22

Mc

tiu

duy tr

v

qun l

d tr

ngoi

hi ca

cc

quc

gia

Thc hin chnh sch tin t v chnh scht gi.

Duy tr tnh thanh khon ca th trng ngoihi hn ch tc ng tiu cc trongtrng hp xy ra khng hong ti chnh.

Duy tr lng tin v kh nng m bo thanh tonngha v n nc ngoi ca nn kinh t, kh nngh tr gi tr ca ng ni t, th hin kh nngm bo ti chnh ca quc gia gp phn thu htFDI v FII.

D tr cho cc trng hp khn cp v thm hamang tnh quc gia.

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

5/22

lungngoi tchy vo

qu nhiu( cungngoi ttng= cuni t

tng

ng ni tln gi-t gi

gim hng ha

trong nctr nn thn so vihng nc

ngoi mt kh nng

cnh tranh vihng hanc ngoi

NHTW

thng phican thipbng cchmua ngoit, lmtng

d tr,(bm ni tvo luthng)

duy trkh nng

cnhtranh cahngxutkhu

NHTW cng phithc hin OMO ht bt lngtin bm vonn kinh t

kim ch nguy cl m ht

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

6/22

NHTW cng phi snsng bn ngoi t ra can thip khi c s rt

vn t ca cc nh ut n nh th trng

ngoi hi.

NHTW cc ncphi d tr mt

lng ngoi tkhng nh ngoimc png cc nhu cunhp khu theothng l quc t

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

7/22

T ld trngoihi/GDPca cc nc cng nghipnhn chung l nnh, dao ngmcdi 10% (6-8%)

Tldtrny ca cc ncang pht trintng

t 5% nkhong 25%.Khong3/4lng dtrngoihi ton cu l do ccncang pht trinnmgi. Huhtsgia tng nyl chu , nidtrtngtkhong5% nm 1980ln khong 34% trong nm 2010 (33% ngay c sau khi

trTrung Quc).Nhng bin i mnh m nht th din ra Trung

Quc,tldtr/ GDP tngtkhong 1% trong nm1980 ln nkhong 48% vo nm 2010.

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

8/22

sn phmphca

vic theoui mctiu hinhp tichnh

trong khi vnduy tr s nnh ti chnhv nn kinh t

D trngoihi

mttmm

dng iph, ngnnga ri rodng vndng li t

ngt v ochiu

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

9/22

Cc quc gia Chu mi ni: Trung

Quc,Hng Kong, indonesia, Hn Quc,Malaysia, Philippines,i Loan, Thi Lan

Cc quc gia Chu M Latin mi ni:Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,Ecuador, Jamaica, Mexico, Peru,Trinidad, Tobago, Venezuela

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

10/22

Trc y d tr ngoi hi tng ln ch yu ldo thng mi ( hot ng xut nhp khu ).GI y nhn t thng mi ngy cng gim

dn v thay vo l nhn t ti chnh nh: Cc khon n c kh nng chuyn i thnh

ngoi t ( nc ngoi mua li n trong nc).

Mc m ca ti chnh ( mc dng vn

trong nc v nc ngoi c t do ra vo).

u t trc tip, gin tip Kh nng tip cn ngoi t thng qua cc th

trng n ( cc cng ty trong nc bn tri

phiu nc ngoi).

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

11/22

D tr ngoi hi v b ba bt khthi c mi quan h nh th no?

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

12/22

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

13/22

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

14/22

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

15/22

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

16/22

By gi chng ta xem xt tc ng ca vic nm gi d tr ngoihi trong bi cnhc s hi t chnh sch

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

17/22

2010 vic theo ui t

gi n nh hn cth lm tng sbin ng snlng cho cc nnkinh t ang phttrin

2011 nn kinh t thtrng chu mi

ni chp nhn mt chnh

sch c s kt hpca 3 chnh schtrong b ba bt khthi vi lng d trngoi hi

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

18/22

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

19/22

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

20/22

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

21/22

B b bt kh thi th i

7/29/2019 B ba bt kh thi v d tr

22/22

B ba bt kh thi thay inh th no sau mi cuc

khng hong?