BNP Paribas - Asian Agribusiness - 2o12

PREPARED BY BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES ASIA THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR U.S DISTRIBUTION. IM

SECTOR REPORT

EQUITIES RESEARCH

ASEAN

ASIA AGRIBUSINESS

IMPROVING INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

US rains, too little too late

SUMMARY USDA lowers soy and corn yield forecasts

The 12 September WASDE report was bullish for both soybean

The market expected the numbers to be poor, but did not expect yield

forecasts to be lowered the third time this year. Rainfall received from

the recent hurricanes was too little too late, and in wrong places. Tight

oilseed supplies mean high prices will persist.

OUTLOOK El Nino is five months old as of August

In August, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reading

points, making it the fifth month of negative readings and adding strength

to our belief that an El Nino is developing in 4Q12 and 2013. It will

impact oil palm past the peak production season in September and result

in depletion of the current high stock levels in the 4Q and early 2013.

VALUATION We prefer Indonesian platations plays to others

We expect CPO to narrow the price gap with soyoil in the coming months.

Recent spikes in corn and soybean prices have widened the spread

between CPO and soybeans to USD330/tonne. In the futures markets, a

contango price situation has been the norm of late, something not seen

since 2008. But, unlike 2008s soft commodity price rally

oil-led, this rally is led purely by supply shortfalls. We believe the current

situation is more fundamental and sustainable. Oil World expects soft

commodity tightness to last into August 2013. As such,

a window of opportunity to make some good investment gai

We maintain our positive stance on the sector. Our target prices for

Malaysian plantations are still based on 15.7x 2012E P/E, and this is

based on the five-year mean P/E for the sector. Supply shocks pose an

upside risk to the sector P/E. In the meantime, we prefer stocks with

exposure to upstream businesses and with high liquidity. Our top pick

Golden Agri-Resources: it has the highest liquidity among the plantations,

is one of the most leveraged to CPO price changes

for strong FFB growth as its plantation is 13 years old. Our other picks are

London Sumatra and BW Plantations. A downside risk to the Asia agri

sector is a further collapse in crude oil prices, while a

rot (ganoderma) disease affecting oil palm plantations on a large scale

Michael Greenall, CFP [email protected]

+65 6210 1974

Helmy [email protected]

+6221 2358 4939

BNP Paribas Securities (Asia) Ltd. research is available on Thomson One, Bloomberg, TheMarkets.com, Factset and on your salesperson for authorisation. Please see the important notice on the back page.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CAN BE FOUND IN THE DISCLOSURES APPEND

BNPP RECOMMENDATIONS

Company BBG Code Rating

Golden Agri-Resources GGR SP BUYLondon Sumatra LSIP IJ BUY

Astra Agro Lestari AALI IJ BUY

Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP IJ BUY

KL Kepong KLK MK BUY

Genting Plantations GENP MK BUY

IOI Corp IOI MK HOLD

Wilmar Int'l WIL SP HOL

Indofood Agri IFAR SP HOLD

Sime Darby SIME MK HOLD

too little too late

s for the third time

The 12 September WASDE report was bullish for both soybeans and corn.

but did not expect yield

the third time this year. Rainfall received from

and in wrong places. Tight

reading was a negative 5.0

points, making it the fifth month of negative readings and adding strength

to our belief that an El Nino is developing in 4Q12 and 2013. It will likely

oil palm past the peak production season in September and result

stock levels in the 4Q and early 2013.

We prefer Indonesian platations plays to others

gap with soyoil in the coming months.

widened the spread

/tonne. In the futures markets, a

been the norm of late, something not seen

unlike 2008s soft commodity price rally that was crude

ed purely by supply shortfalls. We believe the current

situation is more fundamental and sustainable. Oil World expects soft

As such, we believe there is

a window of opportunity to make some good investment gains.

We maintain our positive stance on the sector. Our target prices for

Malaysian plantations are still based on 15.7x 2012E P/E, and this is

year mean P/E for the sector. Supply shocks pose an

time, we prefer stocks with

exposure to upstream businesses and with high liquidity. Our top pick is

Resources: it has the highest liquidity among the plantations,

is one of the most leveraged to CPO price changes, and is at a sweet spot

rong FFB growth as its plantation is 13 years old. Our other picks are

London Sumatra and BW Plantations. A downside risk to the Asia agri

sector is a further collapse in crude oil prices, while an upside risk is root

palm plantations on a large scale.

Helmy Kristanto [email protected]

+6221 2358 4939

BNP Paribas Securities (Asia) Ltd. research is available on Thomson One, Bloomberg, TheMarkets.com, Factset and on http://eqresearch.bnpparibas.com/indexe see the important notice on the back page.

TOP STOCK PICK

Company

BBG Code

Share Price

Target Price

1 Year - high

1 year - low

VALUATION SUMMARY

Company

Golden Agri-Resources

Wilmar Int'l

KL Kepong

IOI Corp

Genting Plantations

Source: BNP Paribas estimates

0.57

0.62

0.67

0.72

0.77

0.82

0.87

Sep-11 Dec-11

(SGD) Golden Agri-Resources

NDIX

Rating Share Price Target Price Upside / Downside

BUY 0.67 0.93 +38.8% BUY 2,500.00 3,470.00 +38.8%

BUY 21,650.00 27,600.00 +27.5%

BUY 1,310.00 1,570.00 +19.8%

BUY 22.10 26.20 +18.6%

BUY 9.28 10.60 +14.2%

HOLD 5.10 5.40 +8.0%

HOLD 3.00 3.10 +3.3%

HOLD 1.37 1.32 -3.5%

HOLD 9.81 9.20 -6.2%

http://eqresearch.bnpparibas.com/index. Please contact

13 SEPTEMBER 2012

PICK

Golden Agri-Resources

GGR SP

0.67

0.93

0.80

0.55

VALUATION SUMMARY

P/E (x) Yld (%)

FY1 FY2 FY2

11.4 9.9 2.6

17.9 10.9 1.8

13.7 13.0 2.8

14.9 12.8 4.9

14.1 10.8 1.3

Source: BNP Paribas estimates

(8)

(3)

2

7

12

17

Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12

(%)Resources Rel to MSCI Singapore

Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP

2 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012

USDA slightly lowers forecasts for corn and soybean production

The United States Department of Agricultures much awaited 12 September World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed a further decline in production forecasts for both corn and soybeans over its own estimates made in August. Yield forecasts for both soybeans and corn were revised down for the third time this year in September. This further verifies the tight supply-demand situation in global oilseeds, which is not expected to abate until after August 2013, by Oil Worlds estimates.

The key reason for the bad harvest is the drought seen in the US, which coincided with the planting season. The drought has yet to abate and even tough some rain has started to fall, we believe it is too little and too late in the planting cycle to have any beneficial impact on corn and soyabean crops.

We summarise the WASDE Corn and Soybean report below.

CORN: The WASDE report showed 2012/13 corn production is forecast at 107b bushels, down just under 1% from the estimate made in August, but down 13% y-y. If this materialises, it will be the lowest production season in the US since 2006.

EXHIBIT 1: WASDE US corn forecasts

CORN 2010/11 2011/12 Est. 2012/13 Proj. - Aug 2012/13 Proj. -Sept

(m acres) (m acres) (m acres) (m acres)

Area Planted 88.2 91.9 96.4 96.4

Area Harvested 81.4 84 87.4 87.4

Yield per Harvested Acre (bushels) 152.8 147.2 123.4 122.8

(m bushels) (m bushels) (m bushels) (m bushels)

Beginning stocks 1,708 1,128 1,021 1,181

Production 12,447 12,358 10,779 10,727

Imports 28 25 75 75

Supply, total 14,182 13,511 11,875 11,983

Feed and Residual 4,793 4,400 4,075 4,150

Food, Seed & Industrial 6,428 6,390 5,850 5,850

Ethanol & by-products 5,021 5,000 4,500 4,500

Domestic, Total 11,221 10,790 9,925 10,000

Exports 1,834 1,540 1,300 1,250

Use, Total 13,055 12,330 11,225 11,250

Ending Stocks 1,128 1,181 650 733

CCC Inventory 0 0

Free Stocks 1,128 1,181

Outstanding Loans 48 40

Avg. Farm Price (USD/bushel) 5.18 6.25 7.50 - 8.90 7.20 - 8.60

Source: USDA

Based on crop conditions on 1 September, yields are likely to average at 122.8 bushels per acre. This is 0.6

bushels/acre lower than the August 2012 forecast and 24.4 bushels/acre and below 2010/11s actual achieved level of 147.2 bushels/acre. This represents the lowest yield number seen since 1995. All this is despite the 4% y-y increase in area harvested of 87.4m acres.

The ending stock number, while lower than the 2011/12 figure of 1,181m bushels, was revised up by 83m bushels in September due to an increase in residual supply of 125m bushels that surprised the market. There is some scepticism by commodity traders over the increase in residual supply, as the figure seems too large.

The USDA, in its WASDE report, assumed average farm price of USD6.25/bushel for 2011/12 and USD7.20-8.60/bushel in 2012/13.



SOYBEANS: The WASDE report showed 2012/13 soybean production is forecast at 2,634m bushels, this is 2% lower than the August 2012 estimate, but down a hefty 14% from 2010/11s actual production.

EXHIBIT 2: WASDE US soybean forecasts

SOYBEANS 2010/11 2011/12 Est. 2012/13 Proj. - Aug 2012/13 Proj. -Sept

(m acres) (m acres) (m acres) (m acres)

Area Planted 77.4 75 76.1 76.1

Area Harvested 76.6 73.6 74.6 74.6

Yield per harvested acre (bushels) 43.5 41.5 36.1 35.3

(m bushels) (m bushels) (m bushels) (m bushels)

Beginning Stocks 151 215 145 130

Production 3,329 3,056 2,692 2,634

Imports 14 16 20 20

Supply, Total 3,495 3,287 2,857 2,785

Crushings 1,648 1,705 1,515 1,500

Exports 1,501 1,360 1,110 1,055

Seed 87 88 89 89

Residual 44 3 27 25

Use, Total 3,280 3,157 2,742 2,670

Ending Stocks 215 130 115 115

Avg. Farm Price (USD/bushel) 11.3 12.45 15.00 - 17.00 15.00 - 17.00

Source: USDA

As of crop conditions on 1 September, yields are expected tio average 35.3 bushels/acre. This is a 0.8 bushel/acre downgrade from Augusts forecast and is 6.2 bushels/acre lower than the actual figure in 2010/11. The crop area harvested in 2012/13 will be some 74.6m acres.

The ending stock of soyabeans remained low at 115m bushels, and unchanged over the forecasts made in August, clearly showing the extremely tight supply situation in the US this planting season, which is not expected to alleviate until August 2013.

The USDA, in its WASDE report, assumed average farm price of USD12.45/bushel in 2011/12, rising to USD15-17/bushel in 2012/13.

EXHIBIT 3: WASDE US Soyoil Forecasts

Soybean Oil 2010/11 2011/12 Est. 2012/13 Proj. - Aug 2012/13 Proj. -Sept

(m lbs) (m lbs) (m lbs) (m lbs)

Beginning Stocks 3,406 2,425 2,585 2,720

Production 18,888 19,795 17,315 17,145

Imports 159 150 195 195

Supply, Total 22,453 22,370 20,095 20,060

Domestic Disappearance 16,795 18,200 17,600 17,600

Exports 3,233 1,450 1,200 1,200

Use, Total 20,028 19,650 18,800 18,800

Ending stocks 2,425 2,720 1,295 1,260

Avg. Price (US cents/lb) 53.2 52 53.00 - 57.00 54.00 - 58.00

Source: USDA

SOYBEAN OIL: The 12 September WASDE report showed a further 1% decline in production forecast over Augusts estimate. The net result is a 2.7% decline in ending stock in 2012/13. The 2012/13 ending stock figure is 52% of the 2010/11 fuigure and 46% of thje 2011/12 figure extremely tight supply situation.

As a result of the tight supply situation, USDA forecasts soybean oil price will trade at USD0.54-0.58/lb in 2012/13.

The next report by the USDA will be released on 11 October and we believe this will give a truer picture of the crop season, as by then some of the crops would have been started to be harvested. The drought seen in the US still persists even though El Nino is not officially declared yet.



El Nino is now five months old

The Australian Meteorological Departments Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reading was a negative 5.0 points in August, making it the fifth month of successive negative readings. This adds strength to our belief that an El Nino is developing globally. Since March, when the 24-month long La Nina ended, there has been no reversal from El Nino to La Nina, which confirms our belief that this El Nino is going to be a strong event.

EXHIBIT 4: Southern Oscillation Index

Sources: NOAA; BNP Paribas

Following from Julys weaker negative 1.7 points, Augusts negative 5.0 points is a reflection of the dry weather now occurring in the US (see latest Drought Monitor as of 4 September). In the US, severe drought conditions persist and have spread to central US. Some recent rain around Florida has not eased the general conditions.

EXHIBIT 5: US Drought Monitor

Sources: US NOAA

According to the National Drought Mitigation Centre forecast as of 4 September, temperatures should be below normal over the southeast and west coast as well as for much of western Alaska. Temperatures can be expected to be above normal for much of the central and northern Plains, the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains. Much of the country should expect below-normal precipitation, with the desert southwest and

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12

La Nia

El Nio



portions of Florida being the only areas showing above-normal chances of precipitation. The drought in the Midwest is said to be the worst drought seen in 76 years

According to the USDAs 4 September Crop Progress Report, only 3% of its corn crop and 4% of the soybean crop are rated in excellent condition. The same time last year, for both it was 11%. More alarming is that crop rated Good amuounted to only 19% for corn and 26% for soybean. At the same time in 2011, the corn number was twice at 41% while soybean number was 45%. This represents the severity of this years crop conditions.

EXHIBIT 6: USA Crop Progress report - 2 September 2012

Crop Progress (2 September 2012) - of the 18 states which account for 94% of 2011 acreage

Corn Conditions (%)

Very poor

Poor

Fair

Good

Excellent

18 States

26

26

26

19

3

Previous week

26

26

26

19

3

Previous year

8

13

27

41

11

Crop Progress (2 September 2012) - of the 18 states which account for 95% of 2011 acreage

Soybean Conditions (%) Very poor

Poor

Fair

Good

Excellent

18 States

16

21

33

26

4

Previous week

17

21

32

26

4

Previous year

5

21

28

45

11

Source: USDA

India and Australia seeing drought conditions

Following on from droughts in the US, Latin America and Russia, India this year is experiencing below average monsoon rainfall. The latest country to be affected by drought is Australia.

The Australian Meteorological Department reported that recent dry conditions in Western and South Australia have exacerbated existing rainfall deficiencies. August rainfall was below average across most of Australia, with the area seeing rainfall some 56% below average. 2012 is ranked as the fifth-driest August since comparable records commenced in 1900. Most of Tasmania, Victoria, and southeastern South Australia recorded near-average monthly total rainfall. The tropical north is seasonally dry at this time of the year, but some areas experienced light rainfall. For Western Australia, August rainfall was well below average, being the driest August since 1995.

Despite the dry weather in most of the globe (El Nino effect in the US, flooding in northern China, droughts in Ukraine and Northern Russia, less rainfall in New Zealand, weaker monsoon rainfall in India and, most recently, drought hitting cocoa growing areas in Western Africa), little of the El Nino effect has been seen in the oil palm growing areas of SE Asia.

But both the Aussie Met and NOAA have forecast that El Nino will be a late 2012 and 2013 event. This means that if El Nino impact starts hitting our shores in SE Asia, then it may come at a time when FFB production has peaked (always September-October period). This means the large stocks seen in August in Malaysia (2.12m tonnes) will be absorbed by the usual pick-up in purchases by the Middle East and India and Africa at year-end.

High Malaysian palm oil stocks likely to persist until end-September

In September, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported that end-August palm product stock level was 2.12m tonnes. This was up 6% m-m and 12% y-y and a 10-month high. The main reason was lower exports, down 16% y-y in August, but exports in August were up 10% from July 2012. On a year-to-date basis, exports are up 8% y-y. The lower CPO prices, helped by some substitution and Ramadhan buying, were the main reasons for exports growth.

Production in Malaysian estates has been poor. Overall in August, production fell 2% m-m but was flat y-y. On a year-to-date basis, Malaysians palm oil production was down 7% y-y.

Broken down into geographical areas, Peninsular Malaysia (where trees are generally older) saw production fall 6% year-to-date, while in East Malaysia, production contracted 8% year-to-date. The main reason was lower FFB yields. The average FFB yield in august was 6.6% y-y higher in Peninsular Malaysia



but there was a 13% y-y decline in Sabah plantations. Plantations there were hit by the 2010 dry spell (El Nino lag effect), which caused production to be poor this year.

In past El Ninos, Southeast Asian plantations were badly hit by drought. Production is affected at the time El Nino strikes and a secondary low-flowering phenomenon occurs roughly 24 months after the end of the El Nino event. The El Ninos effect on oil palm and rubber trees in South East Asia is more severe than La Ninas.

We believe that Southeast Asia oil palm lands will be the next to be affected and the Australian Meteorological Department expects the El Nino to intensify towards the end of 2012. This would mean oil palm crops showing a lower yield in 2013.

In Malaysia, where the oil palm trees are generally older than those in Indonesia, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board is expecting 2012 production to be 3% lower at 18.3m tonnes, from 2011s 18.9m tonnes. This forecast does not factor in the possibility of an El Nino. We believe Indonesias production growth will be 6-9% in 2012, about half of 2011s production. As such, we would expect prices to strengthen in the coming months.

We expect CPO-soy oil spread to narrow

We expect CPO to narrow the price gap with soyoil in the coming months, possibly after the peak production month of September. The palm oil price discount to soyoil is now USD330/tonne, due to a spike in soybean prices over the last few days on the back of the bearish production forecast by the USDA.

Increasing news flow suggests the upswing in corn and soybean prices has not ended. In the futures markets, a contango price situation has been the norm of late, something not seen since 2008. But, unlike 2008s soft commodity price rally that was crude oil-led, this rally is led purely by supply shortfalls. We believe the current situation is more fundamental and sustainable. At the current CPO orice of just under MYR3,000/tonne, palm oil is very attractively priced relative to other competing edible oils. With Oil World expecting soft commodity tightness to last into August 2013, there is a window of opportunity to make some good investment gains.

Valuation

We maintain our positive stance on the sector. Our target prices for Malaysian plantations are still based on 15.7x 2012E P/E, and this is based on the five-year mean P/E for the sector. Supply shocks pose an upside risk to the sector P/E. In the meantime, we prefer stocks with exposure to upstream businesses and with high liquidity. Our top pick is Golden Agri-Resources: it has the highest liquidity among plantations, is one of the most leveraged to CPO price changes and is at a sweet spot for strong FFB growth as its plantation is 13 years old. Our other picks are London Sumatra and BW Plantations. A downside risk for the Asia agri sector is a further collapse in crude oil prices, while an upside risk is root rot (ganoderma) disease affecting oil palm plantations on a large scale.



EXHIBIT 7: Relative valuation

Name BBG Share Market Avg. 3M ------P/E------ EPS CAGR -----P/BV----- ------ROE------ --EV/EBITDA-- ------EPS------

code Price cap T/O 12E 13E 11-13E 12E 13E 12E 13E 12E 13E 12E 13E

(LC) (USD m) (USD m) (x) (x) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (LC) (LC)

Genting Plants GENP MK 9.27 2,284 2.1 14.1 10.8 21.3 1.9 1.6 14.4 16.3 9.6 7.2 0.6 0.9

IOI Corp IOI MK 5.11 10,664 5.4 15.2 13.1 23.2 2.8 2.6 17.8 19.7 11.4 10.0 0.3 0.4

KL Kepong KLK MK 22.06 7,645 6.3 13.6 12.9 7.5 3.1 2.7 22.5 20.4 9.4 8.6 1.5 1.7

Sime Darby SIME MK 9.80 19,119 24.5 15.9 13.7 8.4 2.3 2.1 14.8 16.0 9.2 7.9 0.6 0.7

Astra Agro AALI IJ 21,650 3,554 2.0 12.6 9.9 19.8 3.9 3.2 30.9 33.4 8.7 6.9 1527.6 2191.6

London Sumatra LSIP IJ 2,525 1,796 4.4 9.6 8.7 7.7 2.7 2.2 27.6 25.0 6.9 5.8 249.4 289.4

SIMP SIMP IJ 1,310 2,160 0.8 11.6 9.6 13.6 1.6 1.5 13.4 14.5 7.1 6.2 105.4 136.1

Bakrie Sumatera UNSP IJ 131 187 2.0 3.6 3.4 -15.8 0.2 0.2 5.3 5.4 7.5 6.8 55.0 38.9

BW Plantation BWPT IJ 1,510 636 2.2 15.1 9.4 42.6 3.4 2.6 25.5 32.3 10.8 7.1 79.4 161.4

Golden Agri-Resources GGR SP 0.670 6,996 34.0 11.2 9.7 7.1 0.8 0.6 7.1 7.0 8.0 6.9 0.0 0.1

IndoAgri IFAR SP 1.375 1,607 2.9 11.7 9.1 24.4 1.2 1.1 10.3 12.7 6.2 5.7 740.5 1145.9

Wilmar Int'l WIL SP 2.990 15,572 29.1 14.0 10.0 7.3 1.2 1.1 7.9 10.3 13.1 10.1 0.2 0.2

Prices as of 13 September 2012 Sources: Bloomberg; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements Golden Agri-Resources

Profit and Loss (USD m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Revenue 3,505 5,953 5,161 5,352 5,526

Cost of sales ex depreciation (2,842) (5,000) (4,182) (4,251) (4,345)

Gross profit ex depreciation 662 953 980 1,101 1,181

Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0

Operating costs 0 0 0 0 0

Operating EBITDA 662 953 980 1,101 1,181

Depreciation (82) (95) (124) (141) (158)

Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 0

Operating EBIT 580 859 855 960 1,023

Net financing costs (25) (50) (46) (36) (24)

Associates 3 1 1 1 1

Recurring non operating income 0 0 0 0 0

Non recurring items 1,371 903 0 0 0

Profit before tax 1,929 1,712 810 925 1,000

Tax (482) (428) (190) (208) (230)

Profit after tax 1,447 1,284 620 717 770

Minority interests (24) (16) (8) (9) (10)

Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0

Other items 0 0 0 0 0

Reported net profit 1,423 1,268 612 708 761

Non recurring items & goodwill (net) (1,028) (677) 0 0 0

Recurring net profit 395 591 612 708 761

Per share (USD)

Recurring EPS * 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06

Reported EPS 0.12 0.10 0.05 0.06 0.06

DPS 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Growth

Revenue (%) 52.8 69.9 (13.3) 3.7 3.3

Operating EBITDA (%) 65.2 43.9 2.8 12.4 7.3

Operating EBIT (%) 74.3 48.0 (0.4) 12.2 6.6

Recurring EPS (%) 90.8 48.6 (1.0) 15.6 7.4

Reported EPS (%) 123.2 (10.9) (54.3) 15.6 7.4

Operating performance

Gross margin inc depreciation (%) 16.6 14.4 16.6 17.9 18.5

Operating EBITDA margin (%) 18.9 16.0 19.0 20.6 21.4

Operating EBIT margin (%) 16.6 14.4 16.6 17.9 18.5

Net margin (%) 11.3 9.9 11.9 13.2 13.8

Effective tax rate (%) 25.0 25.0 23.5 22.5 23.0

Dividend payout on recurring profit (%) 11.1 13.0 29.4 25.4 23.6

Interest cover (x) 23.3 17.1 18.7 26.9 43.3

Inventory days 66.5 49.9 61.2 57.0 57.7

Debtor days 48.6 41.7 50.2 45.8 45.9

Creditor days 38.3 29.9 40.0 37.2 37.7

Operating ROIC (%) 21.8 24.8 22.3 23.1 22.6

Operating ROIC - WACC (%) 10.7 13.7 11.2 12.0 -

ROIC (%) 4.9 6.0 5.3 5.3 5.1

ROIC - WACC (%) (6.2) (5.1) (5.8) (5.8) -

ROE (%) 6.4 8.0 7.1 7.0 6.6

ROA (%) 4.8 5.9 5.2 5.3 5.1

*Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted

Revenue By Division (USD m) 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Crude Palm Oil 1,645 2,280 2,359 2,417 2,477

Palm Kernel 220 420 327 391 403

Refinery 1,243 1,201 1,628 1,617 1,613

Soybean 527 728 743 758 773

Sources: Golden Agri-Resources; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements Golden Agri-Resources

Cash Flow (USD m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E


Depreciation 82 95 124 141 158

Associates & minorities 21 15 7 8 9

Other non-cash items 15 79 (7) (7) (7)

Recurring cash flow 513 780 737 851 921

Change in working capital (345) (130) 119 (24) (21)

Capex - maintenance (324) (446) (446) (446) (446)

Capex - new investment 0 0 0 0 0

Free cash flow to equity (156) 204 410 381 453

Net acquisitions & disposals (144) (91) 0 0 0

Dividends paid (45) (79) (180) (180) (180)

Non recurring cash flows (2) (24) 0 0 0

Net cash flow (347) 10 230 201 274

Equity finance 0 0 0 0 0

Debt finance 278 49 78 0 0

Movement in cash (69) 59 308 201 274

Per share (USD)

Recurring cash flow per share 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07

FCF to equity per share (0.01) 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04

Balance Sheet (USD m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Working capital assets 1,274 1,605 1,404 1,452 1,496

Working capital liabilities (520) (722) (639) (664) (687)

Net working capital 753 883 764 788 809

Tangible fixed assets 1,461 1,760 1,968 2,208 2,430

Operating invested capital 2,214 2,643 2,733 2,996 3,240

Goodwill 117 117 117 117 117

Other intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0

Investments 59 95 97 98 98

Other assets 6,986 7,983 8,979 9,974 10,969

Invested capital 9,376 10,839 11,925 13,184 14,424

Cash & equivalents (218) (277) (585) (786) (1,060)

Short term debt 541 422 500 500 500

Long term debt * 444 664 664 664 664

Net debt 766 809 579 378 104

Deferred tax 1,632 1,876 1,876 1,876 1,876

Other liabilities 33 41 41 41 41

Total equity 6,826 8,025 9,334 10,785 12,288

Minority interests 119 87 95 104 114


* includes convertibles and preferred stock which is being treated as debt

Per share (USD)

Book value per share 0.56 0.66 0.73 0.84 0.96

Tangible book value per share 0.55 0.65 0.72 0.83 0.95

Financial strength

Net debt/equity (%) 11.0 10.0 6.1 3.5 0.8

Net debt/total assets (%) 7.6 6.8 4.4 2.6 0.6

Current ratio (x) 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2

CF interest cover (x) (5.2) 5.1 9.9 11.7 20.2

Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Recurring P/E (x) * 16.8 11.3 11.4 9.9 9.2

Recurring P/E @ target price (x) * 23.3 15.7 15.9 13.7 12.8

Reported P/E (x) 4.6 5.2 11.4 9.9 9.2

Dividend yield (%) 0.7 1.1 2.6 2.6 2.6

P/CF (x) 12.9 8.5 9.5 8.2 7.6

P/FCF (x) (42.4) 32.4 17.1 18.4 15.4

Price/book (x) 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6

Price/tangible book (x) 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6

EV/EBITDA (x) ** 11.0 7.9 7.7 6.9 6.2

EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** 13.4 9.6 9.4 8.5 7.7

EV/invested capital (x) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5

* Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted ** EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non-operating income

Sources: Golden Agri-Resources; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements Wilmar Int'l

Profit and Loss (USD m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Revenue 30,378 44,710 46,957 50,905 55,615


Gross profit ex depreciation 2,507 3,871 3,298 4,476 5,438


Operating costs (1,256) (2,145) (2,186) (2,527) (2,932)

Operating EBITDA 1,744 2,472 1,858 2,695 3,252

Depreciation (315) (478) (601) (649) (677)


Operating EBIT 1,428 1,994 1,257 2,046 2,574


Associates 38 185 185 185 185

Recurring non operating income 0 (104) 0 0 0

Non recurring items 250 84 0 0 0

Profit before tax 1,643 1,900 1,174 1,960 2,486

Tax (190) (379) (246) (431) (547)

Profit after tax 1,454 1,521 927 1,529 1,939




Reported net profit 1,323 1,422 871 1,436 1,821

Non recurring items & goodwill (net) (250) (84) 0 0 0

Recurring net profit 1,073 1,338 871 1,436 1,821

Per share (USD)

Recurring EPS * 0.17 0.21 0.14 0.22 0.28

Reported EPS 0.21 0.22 0.14 0.22 0.28

DPS 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.06

Growth

Revenue (%) 27.2 47.2 5.0 8.4 9.3

Operating EBITDA (%) (31.0) 41.8 (24.8) 45.0 20.7

Operating EBIT (%) (37.2) 39.6 (36.9) 62.7 25.8

Recurring EPS (%) (41.1) 24.7 (34.9) 64.7 26.8

Reported EPS (%) (29.8) 7.4 (38.7) 64.7 26.8





Net margin (%) 3.5 3.0 1.9 2.8 3.3



Interest cover (x) 20.1 8.0 5.4 8.2 10.1

Inventory days 69.9 62.6 56.1 51.4 53.8

Debtor days 30.7 27.1 32.3 35.9 35.8

Creditor days 14.8 14.1 15.4 16.1 16.0

Operating ROIC (%) 8.9 9.0 5.1 7.9 9.3

Operating ROIC - WACC (%) 3.4 3.5 - - -

ROIC (%) 5.8 6.4 4.1 6.1 7.2

ROIC - WACC (%) 0.4 0.9 - - -

ROE (%) 9.4 10.6 6.3 9.8 11.4

ROA (%) 4.4 4.5 2.9 4.3 5.2


Revenue By Division (USD m) 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Palm & laurics 16,821 22,917 24,103 27,286 28,650

Oilseeds & grains 10,172 12,670 14,827 16,606 18,599

Consumer products 4,697 6,769 7,243 8,329 9,579

Plantations & palm oil mills 1,485 1,842 2,020 2,603 2,998

Sugar 0 3,210 3,530 3,883 4,271

Others (fertilisers & shipping) 1,159 2,877 3,020 3,172 3,330

Biofuels 859 0 0 0 0

Elimination (4,816) (5,575) (7,786) (10,973) (11,812)

Sources: Wilmar Int'l; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements Wilmar Int'l

Cash Flow (USD m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Recurring net profit 1,073 1,338 871 1,436 1,821

Depreciation 315 478 601 649 677

Associates & minorities 92 (87) (130) (92) (67)

Other non-cash items 38 374 0 0 0

Recurring cash flow 1,519 2,104 1,343 1,992 2,431

Change in working capital (4,132) (2,187) 67 (1,006) (1,286)

Capex - maintenance (3,237) (2,181) (1,200) (1,000) (800)


Free cash flow to equity (5,850) (2,264) 210 (14) 345

Net acquisitions & disposals 1 0 0 0 0

Dividends paid (385) (280) 0 0 0

Non recurring cash flows 250 (20) 0 0 0

Net cash flow (5,983) (2,564) 210 (14) 345

Equity finance 111 94 (56) (93) (118)

Debt finance 7,525 3,563 (823) (102) (179)

Movement in cash 1,653 1,092 (669) (208) 48

Per share (USD)


FCF to equity per share (0.92) (0.35) 0.03 0.00 0.05

Balance Sheet (USD m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E


Working capital liabilities (3,366) (3,721) (3,988) (4,124) (4,306)

Net working capital 9,873 12,164 12,097 13,103 14,389



Goodwill 4,401 4,410 4,410 4,410 4,410


Investments 2,931 3,627 3,627 3,627 3,627

Other assets 500 369 369 369 369


Cash & equivalents (6,788) (7,880) (7,211) (7,003) (7,051)

Short term debt 14,904 18,409 18,409 18,409 18,409

Long term debt * 2,522 2,480 1,606 1,606 1,606

Net debt 10,637 13,009 12,805 13,013 12,965

Deferred tax 475 639 639 639 639


Total equity 11,856 13,370 14,106 15,255 16,712




Per share (USD)



Financial strength

Net debt/equity (%) 84.7 91.3 85.5 80.7 73.7


Current ratio (x) 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1

CF interest cover (x) (79.0) (7.7) 1.8 1.0 2.3

Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Recurring P/E (x) * 14.7 11.8 18.0 11.0 8.6


Reported P/E (x) 11.9 11.1 18.0 10.9 8.6

Dividend yield (%) 2.4 1.8 1.1 1.8 2.3

P/CF (x) 10.3 7.5 11.7 7.9 6.5

P/FCF (x) (2.7) (6.9) 74.9 (1,160.1) 45.5

Price/book (x) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9


EV/EBITDA (x) ** 13.4 11.1 14.4 10.2 8.6




Sources: Wilmar Int'l; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements KL Kepong

Profit and Loss (MYR m) Year Ending Sep 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Revenue 7,491 10,743 10,873 11,880 12,335






Depreciation (211) (231) (263) (296) (328)


Operating EBIT 1,380 2,092 2,445 2,607 2,651






Tax (316) (421) (607) (671) (681)

Profit after tax 1,067 1,646 1,808 1,906 1,941




Reported net profit 1,012 1,571 1,727 1,821 1,854

Non recurring items & goodwill (net) 0 0 0 0 0

Recurring net profit 1,012 1,571 1,727 1,821 1,854

Per share (MYR)

Recurring EPS * 0.95 1.48 1.62 1.71 1.74

Reported EPS 0.95 1.48 1.62 1.71 1.74

DPS 0.45 0.60 0.63 0.63 0.63

Growth

Revenue (%) 12.5 43.4 1.2 9.3 3.8


Operating EBIT (%) 53.9 51.6 16.9 6.6 1.7

Recurring EPS (%) 65.3 55.2 9.6 5.4 1.8

Reported EPS (%) 65.3 55.2 9.6 5.4 1.8





Net margin (%) 13.5 14.6 15.9 15.3 15.0



Interest cover (x) 41.6 39.9 42.7 45.5 46.2

Inventory days 67.1 64.2 75.2 72.0 73.6

Debtor days 45.5 38.8 48.4 46.7 47.8

Creditor days 36.9 31.4 37.3 35.7 36.5

Operating ROIC (%) 25.9 33.9 34.9 33.9 31.8


ROIC (%) 15.3 20.4 21.7 21.8 21.0

ROIC - WACC (%) 7.7 12.8 14.1 14.2 -

ROE (%) 17.4 24.0 22.5 20.4 18.1

ROA (%) 12.3 16.7 16.0 15.1 13.8


Revenue By Division (MYR m) 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Plantation 3,536 4,880 4,671 5,245 5,403

Manufacturing 3,247 5,135 5,392 5,662 5,945

Retailing 614 651 664 677 691

Property development 30 5 100 250 250

Investment holding 41 51 24 24 24

Others 22 20 21 22 22

Sources: KL Kepong; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements KL Kepong

Cash Flow (MYR m) Year Ending Sep 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E


Depreciation 211 231 263 296 328


Other non-cash items (229) (134) 10 10 12


Change in working capital (169) (714) (27) (212) (97)



Free cash flow to equity 493 556 1,426 1,371 1,555


Dividends paid (479) (639) (504) (504) (505)

Non recurring cash flows 40 22 0 0 0

Net cash flow 75 85 922 868 1,051

Equity finance (31) (41) (40) (40) (40)

Debt finance (82) 358 (58) (58) (58)

Movement in cash (39) 402 825 770 953

Per share (MYR)


FCF to equity per share 0.46 0.52 1.34 1.28 1.46

Balance Sheet (MYR m) Year Ending Sep 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E


Working capital liabilities (690) (944) (954) (1,032) (1,068)




Goodwill 322 338 338 338 338


Investments 2,431 2,715 2,715 2,715 2,715

Other assets 250 253 253 253 253



Short term debt 580 1,564 1,564 1,564 1,564

Long term debt * 1,107 526 526 526 526

Net debt 432 419 (391) (1,161) (2,114)

Deferred tax 242 246 246 246 246


Total equity 6,005 7,074 8,264 9,562 10,892




Per share (MYR)



Financial strength

Net debt/equity (%) 6.8 5.6 (4.5) (11.6) (18.5)

Net debt/total assets (%) 4.7 3.8 (3.2) (8.5) (14.0)

Current ratio (x) 2.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.0

CF interest cover (x) 15.5 11.5 25.6 24.6 27.8

Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Recurring P/E (x) * 23.2 15.0 13.7 13.0 12.7


Reported P/E (x) 23.2 15.0 13.7 13.0 12.7

Dividend yield (%) 2.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8

P/CF (x) 23.3 13.7 11.5 10.8 10.5

P/FCF (x) 47.7 42.3 16.5 17.2 15.2

Price/book (x) 3.9 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.2


EV/EBITDA (x) ** 14.9 10.3 8.8 7.9 7.5




Sources: KL Kepong; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements IOI Corp

Profit and Loss (MYR m) Year Ending Jun 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Revenue 12,540 17,658 16,723 17,728 18,727






Depreciation (219) (276) (254) (264) (275)

Goodwill amortisation (13) 0 0 0 0

Operating EBIT 2,337 1,729 2,853 3,260 3,530

Net financing costs 103 (123) (91) (42) (26)

Associates 55 120 120 120 120




Tax (486) 0 (720) (835) (905)

Profit after tax 2,063 1,726 2,161 2,504 2,719

Minority interests (29) 0 0 0 1




Non recurring items & goodwill (net) (31) 0 0 0 (1)


Per share (MYR)

Recurring EPS * 0.30 0.26 0.34 0.39 0.42

Reported EPS 0.31 0.27 0.34 0.39 0.43

DPS 0.09 0.18 0.24 0.24 0.26

Growth

Revenue (%) (14.1) 40.8 (5.3) 6.0 5.6

Operating EBITDA (%) (3.5) (21.9) 55.0 13.4 7.9

Operating EBIT (%) (3.9) (26.0) 65.1 14.3 8.3

Recurring EPS (%) 62.4 (13.9) 31.1 15.8 8.6

Reported EPS (%) 98.3 (14.1) 25.3 15.8 8.7





Net margin (%) 16.0 9.8 12.9 14.1 14.5



Interest cover (x) - 15.1 32.7 81.1 138.9

Inventory days 59.0 49.3 69.1 66.3 66.7

Debtor days 38.5 31.3 36.5 34.5 34.5

Creditor days 34.7 24.8 31.0 29.7 29.9

Operating ROIC (%) 24.3 16.4 23.5 26.4 27.5


ROIC (%) 15.6 10.6 14.5 16.3 17.3

ROIC - WACC (%) 6.1 1.1 5.0 6.8 -

ROE (%) 20.9 15.1 17.8 19.7 19.8

ROA (%) 11.7 9.9 11.5 13.3 13.9



Plantation 1,988 2,435 2,750 3,350 3,721

Property Development 946 972 1,070 1,177 1,295

Property Investment 98 96 101 106 113

Manufacturing 11,003 14,156 14,864 15,607 16,388

Others 141 0 0 0 0

Less inter segment (1,635) 0 (2,062) (2,512) (2,790)

Sources: IOI Corp; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements IOI Corp

Cash Flow (MYR m) Year Ending Jun 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E


Depreciation 219 276 254 264 275

Associates & minorities (25) (120) (120) (120) (121)

Other non-cash items (400) (949) (1,528) 325 257

Recurring cash flow 1,796 933 768 2,973 3,131

Change in working capital 211 (1,162) 177 (181) (170)



Free cash flow to equity 1,442 (661) 510 2,357 2,526

Net acquisitions & disposals (1) (1,301) 0 0 0

Dividends paid (531) (1,206) (934) (1,620) (1,665)


Net cash flow 917 (2,782) (425) 737 860

Equity finance 1,181 39 0 0 0

Debt finance (651) 492 (105) (1,042) (186)

Movement in cash 1,447 (2,251) (530) (305) 675

Per share (MYR)


FCF to equity per share 0.22 (0.10) 0.08 0.37 0.39

Balance Sheet (MYR m) Year Ending Jun 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E






Goodwill 514 512 512 512 512


Investments 2,121 3,786 3,786 3,786 3,786

Other assets 2,084 1,947 1,947 1,947 1,947



Short term debt 409 791 858 0 0

Long term debt * 4,348 4,606 3,761 3,713 3,660

Net debt 880 2,612 2,363 1,761 1,033

Deferred tax 465 453 453 453 453


Total equity 10,780 11,999 12,220 13,172 14,230




Per share (MYR)



Financial strength

Net debt/equity (%) 8.0 21.3 18.9 13.1 7.1


Current ratio (x) 5.0 3.4 3.0 4.6 5.0

CF interest cover (x) - (4.4) 6.6 57.6 97.1

Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Recurring P/E (x) * 16.8 19.5 14.9 12.8 11.8


Reported P/E (x) 15.9 18.5 14.8 12.8 11.8

Dividend yield (%) 1.7 3.6 4.7 4.9 5.2

P/CF (x) 18.0 34.3 41.7 10.8 10.2

P/FCF (x) 22.4 (48.4) 62.7 13.6 12.7

Price/book (x) 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3


EV/EBITDA (x) ** 13.2 16.4 10.8 9.4 8.6




Sources: IOI Corp; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements Genting Plantations

Profit and Loss (MYR m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Revenue 989 1,336 1,377 1,611 1,761

Cost of sales ex depreciation (548) (729) (704) (743) (797)

Gross profit ex depreciation 440 608 673 868 964



Operating EBITDA 440 608 673 868 964

Depreciation (30) (37) (47) (57) (67)


Operating EBIT 410 571 625 811 898

Net financing costs 15 24 34 40 51




Profit before tax 440 601 665 858 955

Tax (116) (159) (167) (206) (229)

Profit after tax 324 443 498 652 726

Minority interests 0 (1) (1) (1) (1)



Reported net profit 324 442 498 651 725

Non recurring items & goodwill (net) (10) 0 0 0 0


Per share (MYR)

Recurring EPS * 0.41 0.58 0.66 0.86 0.96

Reported EPS 0.43 0.58 0.66 0.86 0.96

DPS 0.05 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12

Growth

Revenue (%) 30.8 35.2 3.0 17.0 9.3


Operating EBIT (%) 43.3 39.3 9.5 29.7 10.7

Recurring EPS (%) 33.5 40.5 12.6 30.8 11.4

Reported EPS (%) 37.5 36.3 12.6 30.8 11.4





Net margin (%) 31.8 33.1 36.1 40.4 41.2



Interest cover (x) - - - - -

Inventory days 101.8 70.8 67.8 70.7 74.4

Debtor days 54.6 33.2 30.5 28.7 29.6

Creditor days 101.5 95.3 106.3 110.9 116.6

Operating ROIC (%) 31.9 43.0 39.7 41.5 38.9

Operating ROIC - WACC (%) 23.8 34.9 31.5 33.4 30.8

ROIC (%) 12.8 15.8 15.7 18.4 18.8

ROIC - WACC (%) 4.6 7.6 7.5 10.2 10.6

ROE (%) 11.6 14.5 14.4 16.3 15.5

ROA (%) 9.5 11.1 10.9 12.7 12.3



Plantation 900 1,200 1,233 1,461 1,603

Property 88 136 143 150 158

Sources: Genting Plantations; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements Genting Plantations

Cash Flow (MYR m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E


Depreciation 30 37 47 57 67

Associates & minorities (5) (6) (6) (5) (5)

Other non-cash items 42 88 (1) (1) (1)

Recurring cash flow 382 561 538 702 785

Change in working capital 107 (7) (5) (29) (19)



Free cash flow to equity 218 301 280 419 514


Dividends paid (53) (73) (67) (67) (67)

Non recurring cash flows (1) (8) (8) (8) (8)

Net cash flow 63 103 206 345 439

Equity finance (2) (5) (5) (5) (5)


Movement in cash 259 261 201 340 434

Per share (MYR)



Balance Sheet (MYR m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Working capital assets 353 390 401 466 508


Net working capital 152 159 164 193 212

Tangible fixed assets 772 882 1,129 1,366 1,595

Operating invested capital 924 1,041 1,293 1,560 1,806

Goodwill 187 187 187 187 187


Investments 1,115 1,322 1,318 1,319 1,320

Other assets 340 309 317 324 332


Cash & equivalents (756) (1,017) (1,218) (1,558) (1,992)


Long term debt * 254 427 427 427 427

Net debt (501) (590) (791) (1,131) (1,565)

Deferred tax 48 50 50 50 50


Total equity 2,869 3,234 3,695 4,315 5,009




Per share (MYR)



Financial strength

Net debt/equity (%) (16.8) (17.6) (20.8) (25.6) (30.6)

Net debt/total assets (%) (14.2) (14.4) (17.3) (21.7) (26.4)

Current ratio (x) 5.5 6.1 6.8 7.4 8.4

CF interest cover (x) - - - - -

Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Recurring P/E (x) * 22.4 15.9 14.1 10.8 9.7


Reported P/E (x) 21.7 15.9 14.1 10.8 9.7

Dividend yield (%) 0.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

P/CF (x) 18.4 12.5 13.1 10.0 9.0

P/FCF (x) 32.2 23.4 25.1 16.8 13.7

Price/book (x) 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4


EV/EBITDA (x) ** 14.9 10.8 9.5 7.1 6.0




Sources: Genting Plantations; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements Sime Darby

Profit and Loss (MYR m) Year Ending Jun 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Revenue 32,506 41,859 43,758 48,695 51,984



Other operating income 821 984 1,033 1,085 1,139



Depreciation (897) (1,007) (1,038) (1,160) (1,240)

Goodwill amortisation (7) (6) (6) (6) (6)

Operating EBIT 3,146 5,483 5,561 6,480 6,475


Associates (169) 118 118 118 118


Non recurring items (1,058) 1 0 0 0


Tax (905) (1,603) (1,632) (1,902) (1,901)

Profit after tax 855 3,848 3,918 4,567 4,565




Reported net profit 727 3,665 3,698 4,303 4,248

Non recurring items & goodwill (net) 1,065 5 6 6 6


Per share (MYR)

Recurring EPS * 0.30 0.61 0.62 0.72 0.71

Reported EPS 0.12 0.61 0.62 0.72 0.71

DPS 0.23 0.12 0.31 0.36 0.35

Growth

Revenue (%) 4.8 28.8 4.5 11.3 6.8


Operating EBIT (%) (0.2) 74.3 1.4 16.5 (0.1)

Recurring EPS (%) (23.9) 104.8 1.0 16.3 (1.3)

Reported EPS (%) (68.1) 404.2 0.9 16.4 (1.3)





Net margin (%) 5.5 8.8 8.5 8.8 8.2



Interest cover (x) 18.9 36.8 44.0 51.2 51.8

Inventory days 67.6 63.1 72.6 72.3 74.7

Debtor days 67.0 55.1 59.5 57.8 58.9

Creditor days 84.0 79.2 84.8 82.8 83.9

Operating ROIC (%) 8.3 19.8 18.2 19.4 17.8

Operating ROIC - WACC (%) 0.5 11.9 10.3 11.5 9.9

ROIC (%) 5.8 15.0 14.0 15.3 14.3

ROIC - WACC (%) (2.1) 7.1 6.2 7.4 6.4

ROE (%) 8.6 16.5 14.8 16.0 14.6

ROA (%) 5.5 9.8 9.1 10.0 9.4



Plantations 10,858 13,168 13,997 16,835 17,851

Property 1,785 1,987 1,884 2,023 2,172

Automotive 10,098 14,818 14,433 15,287 16,191

Heavy equipment 8,313 10,271 10,478 11,321 12,239

Energy & utilities 953 1,085 2,437 2,701 3,001

Other non-core businesses 500 529 529 529 529

Sources: Sime Darby; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements Sime Darby

Cash Flow (MYR m) Year Ending Jun 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E


Depreciation 897 1,007 1,038 1,160 1,240


Other non-cash items 179 (670) (522) (523) (671)


Change in working capital 1,557 (1,345) (353) (904) (615)

Capex - maintenance (2,400) (1,490) (1,994) (1,994) (1,494)


Free cash flow to equity 2,323 1,236 1,975 2,195 2,913

Net acquisitions & disposals (37) (50) 493 (147) 0

Dividends paid (1,404) (727) (1,849) (2,152) 0

Non recurring cash flows (1,058) 1 0 0 0

Net cash flow (177) 460 620 (103) 2,913

Equity finance (68) (77) (220) (264) (317)

Debt finance 1,426 37 (11) (11) (2,133)

Movement in cash 1,181 420 389 (378) 463

Per share (MYR)



Balance Sheet (MYR m) Year Ending Jun 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E






Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0


Investments 997 1,107 1,107 1,107 1,107

Other assets 5,608 5,782 5,782 5,782 5,782



Short term debt 3,302 3,055 3,055 3,055 3,055

Long term debt * 4,287 4,008 4,008 4,008 4,008

Net debt 3,098 2,151 1,763 2,141 1,678

Deferred tax 495 492 492 492 492


Total equity 20,450 24,030 25,880 28,031 30,155




Per share (MYR)



Financial strength

Net debt/equity (%) 14.7 8.7 6.6 7.4 5.4


Current ratio (x) 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8


Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Recurring P/E (x) * 32.7 16.0 15.8 13.6 13.8


Reported P/E (x) 80.6 16.0 15.8 13.6 13.8

Dividend yield (%) 2.4 1.2 3.2 3.7 3.6

P/CF (x) 18.5 14.4 13.6 11.5 11.7

P/FCF (x) 25.2 47.4 29.7 26.7 20.1

Price/book (x) 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9


EV/EBITDA (x) ** 16.0 9.4 9.1 7.9 7.8




Sources: Sime Darby; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements Indofood Agri Resources

Profit and Loss (IDR b) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Revenue 9,484 12,605 14,437 16,190 17,240




Operating costs (1,146) (1,363) (1,326) (1,446) (1,483)


Depreciation (421) (488) (590) (662) (740)


Operating EBIT 2,660 3,308 3,613 4,120 4,464


Associates (4) (2) 0 0 0




Tax (749) (913) (867) (991) (1,082)

Profit after tax 1,906 2,641 2,496 2,922 3,236

Minority interests (504) (1,151) (1,209) (1,274) (1,344)




Non recurring items & goodwill (net) (309) (425) 0 0 0


Per share (IDR)

Recurring EPS * 755 740 894 1,146 1,314

Reported EPS 968 1,036 894 1,146 1,314

DPS 0.00 21.76 21.76 29.01 36.27

Growth

Revenue (%) - 32.9 14.5 12.1 6.5

Operating EBITDA (%) - 23.2 10.7 13.8 8.9

Operating EBIT (%) - 24.4 9.2 14.0 8.4

Recurring EPS (%) - (1.9) 20.8 28.1 14.7

Reported EPS (%) - 6.9 (13.6) 28.1 14.7





Net margin (%) 11.5 8.5 8.9 10.2 11.0



Interest cover (x) 8.6 18.6 14.5 20.0 30.3

Inventory days - 72.8 70.0 67.3 69.1

Debtor days - 28.0 26.6 25.6 26.3

Creditor days - 58.1 42.8 31.4 32.2

Operating ROIC (%) - 29.8 28.0 27.9 27.2

Operating ROIC - WACC (%) - - - - -

ROIC (%) - 10.2 10.4 11.4 11.5

ROIC - WACC (%) - - - - -

ROE (%) - 8.9 10.3 12.7 12.9

ROA (%) - 7.6 8.1 9.2 9.6


Revenue By Division (IDR b) 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Plantations 2,867 3,536 4,247 4,741 4,929

Edible Oils & Fats 6,617 9,070 10,190 11,449 12,311

Sources: Indofood Agri; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements Indofood Agri Resources

Cash Flow (IDR b) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E


Depreciation 421 488 590 662 740


Other non-cash items 1,802 2,625 2,326 2,471 2,573


Change in working capital (1,379) (1,410) (2,102) (1,879) (1,881)

Capex - maintenance (973) (880) (1,444) (911) (1,132)


Free cash flow to equity 964 1,889 657 1,991 2,191


Dividends paid 0 0 (31) (31) (42)

Non recurring cash flows (1,364) 2,263 (437) (358) (256)

Net cash flow (453) 4,145 188 1,601 1,893

Equity finance 841 (250) 0 0 0

Debt finance 1,622 (1,160) (1,625) (2,172) (2,300)

Movement in cash 2,010 2,735 (1,437) (571) (407)

Per share (IDR)

Recurring cash flow per share 2,291 2,904 2,921 3,323 3,617

FCF to equity per share 666 1,313 457 1,384 1,523

Balance Sheet (IDR b) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E






Goodwill 3,156 3,156 2,383 2,454 2,528



Other assets 11,710 13,106 13,292 13,979 14,666



Short term debt 2,816 3,334 2,821 2,665 2,520

Long term debt * 5,678 3,926 3,055 2,443 1,905

Net debt 4,698 725 778 580 304

Deferred tax 1,826 2,025 1,748 1,870 2,001


Total equity 11,010 12,819 12,182 13,797 15,545

Minority interests 4,690 8,622 11,409 11,826 12,307



Per share (IDR)

Book value per share 7,605 8,909 8,467 9,589 10,804

Tangible book value per share 5,425 6,716 6,810 7,883 9,048

Financial strength

Net debt/equity (%) 29.9 3.4 3.3 2.3 1.1


Current ratio (x) 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9


Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Recurring P/E (x) * 14.1 14.4 11.9 9.3 8.1


Reported P/E (x) 11.0 10.3 11.9 9.3 8.1

Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3

P/CF (x) 4.7 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.0

P/FCF (x) 16.0 8.1 23.4 7.7 7.0

Price/book (x) 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0


EV/EBITDA (x) ** - 6.5 6.2 5.8 5.4

EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** - 24,804.1 25,019.6 22,174.2 20,523.8



Sources: Indofood Agri; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements London Sumatra

Profit and Loss (IDR b) Year Ending Jan 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Revenue 3,593 4,686 5,150 5,586 5,708




Operating costs (372) (369) (374) (388) (409)


Depreciation (204) (237) (246) (252) (258)


Operating EBIT 1,400 1,993 2,143 2,339 2,270

Net financing costs (18) 97 96 129 163





Tax (348) (389) (448) (494) (487)

Profit after tax 1,033 1,702 1,791 1,975 1,946







Per share (IDR)

Recurring EPS * 151 249 262 289 285

Reported EPS 151 249 262 289 285

DPS 41.80 61.00 74.82 65.62 72.35

Growth

Revenue (%) 12.3 30.4 9.9 8.5 2.2

Operating EBITDA (%) 36.3 39.1 7.1 8.5 (2.5)

Operating EBIT (%) 37.4 42.4 7.5 9.2 (3.0)

Recurring EPS (%) 46.1 64.7 5.3 10.3 (1.4)

Reported EPS (%) 46.1 64.7 5.3 10.3 (1.4)





Net margin (%) 28.8 36.3 34.8 35.4 34.1



Interest cover (x) 78.9 - - - -

Inventory days 51.5 55.3 40.8 24.2 24.4

Debtor days 4.6 5.0 5.6 3.8 4.0

Creditor days 16.0 16.9 12.6 7.9 8.0

Operating ROIC (%) 30.7 44.3 45.7 51.6 50.4

Operating ROIC WACC (%) 15.9 29.5 - - -

ROIC (%) 28.0 40.7 41.9 47.0 45.6

ROIC WACC (%) 13.2 25.9 - - -

ROE (%) 24.7 32.7 27.6 25.0 20.8

ROA (%) 20.1 26.3 23.2 21.3 17.7



Oil palm & palm kernel 2,818 3,774 4,363 4,796 4,889

Rubber 537 595 427 426 448

Seed 193 274 309 314 320

Others 45 51 50 50 51

Sources: London Sumatra; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements London Sumatra

Cash Flow (IDR b) Year Ending Jan 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E


Depreciation 204 237 246 252 258




Change in working capital 95 (267) 156 (46) (37)


Capex new investment (336) (335) (140) (157) (171)

Free cash flow to equity 937 1,278 2,028 1,997 1,966


Dividends paid (285) (416) (510) (448) (494)


Net cash flow 713 903 1,518 1,549 1,472


Debt finance (235) 0 0 0 0

Movement in cash 478 903 1,518 1,549 1,472

Per share (IDR)

Recurring cash flow per share 181 284 299 326 323

FCF to equity per share 137 187 297 293 288

Balance Sheet (IDR b) Year Ending Jan 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Working capital assets 327 504 258 279 293


Net working capital (295) (28) (184) (138) (101)



Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0



Other assets 327 323 344 367 390




Long term debt * 0 0 0 0 0

Net debt (1,161) (2,064) (3,582) (5,131) (6,603)



Total equity 4,554 5,839 7,120 8,647 10,099




Per share (IDR)

Book value per share 667 856 1,044 1,267 1,480

Tangible book value per share 667 856 1,044 1,267 1,480

Financial strength

Net debt/equity (%) (25.5) (35.3) (50.3) (59.3) (65.4)


Current ratio (x) 2.4 4.8 8.7 13.0 17.5

CF interest cover (x) 72.8 - - - -

Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

NAV (IDR) NA NA NA

Disc/(Prem) to NAV NA NA - - NA

Recurring P/E (x) * 16.5 10.0 9.5 8.6 8.8


Reported P/E (x) 16.5 10.0 9.5 8.6 8.8

Dividend yield (%) 1.7 2.4 3.0 2.6 2.9

P/CF (x) 13.8 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.7

P/FCF (x) 18.2 13.3 8.4 8.5 8.7

Price/book (x) 3.7 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.7


EV/EBITDA (x) ** 10.1 6.9 6.0 4.9 4.4



*Pre exceptional, pre goodwill and fully diluted **EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non-operating income

Sources: London Sumatra; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements Astra Agro Lestari

Profit and Loss (IDR b) Year Ending Jan 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Revenue 8,844 10,773 12,343 13,978 15,311




Operating costs (611) (739) (821) (930) (1,018)


Depreciation (337) (332) (398) (373) (347)


Operating EBIT 2,999 3,196 3,719 4,757 5,091

Net financing costs (35) 137 48 43 39





Tax (860) (834) (942) (1,200) (1,283)

Profit after tax 2,104 2,499 2,825 3,600 3,848







Per share (IDR)

Recurring EPS * 1,281 1,528 1,720 2,192 2,343

Reported EPS 1,281 1,528 1,720 2,192 2,343

DPS 655 940 917 1,032 1,315

Growth

Revenue (%) 19.1 21.8 14.6 13.2 9.5


Operating EBIT (%) 14.9 6.6 16.4 27.9 7.0

Recurring EPS (%) 21.4 19.3 12.6 27.4 6.9

Reported EPS (%) 21.4 19.3 12.6 27.4 6.9





Net margin (%) 22.8 22.3 21.9 24.7 24.1



Interest cover (x) 86.5 - - - -

Inventory days 46.0 39.1 38.6 37.8 36.8

Debtor days 5.3 2.0 1.2 1.8 1.9

Creditor days 21.9 24.4 25.1 23.6 23.0

Operating ROIC (%) 39.9 38.5 38.1 43.1 41.4

Operating ROIC - WACC (%) 24.3 22.9 - - -

ROIC (%) 34.5 33.2 32.3 36.2 34.9

ROIC - WACC (%) 18.9 17.7 - - -

ROE (%) 30.0 31.3 30.9 33.4 30.6

ROA (%) 26.0 25.2 25.7 28.6 26.6



Oil Palm 8,788 10,718 12,316 13,951 15,311

Non CPO 24 55 26 27 0

Sources: Astra Agro Lestari; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements Astra Agro Lestari

Cash Flow (IDR b) Year Ending Jan 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E


Depreciation 337 332 398 373 347




Change in working capital 238 141 (121) (39) (45)


Capex - new investment (1,567) (2,033) (1,400) (1,400) (1,400)

Free cash flow to equity 1,022 848 1,612 2,444 2,660


Dividends paid (1,031) (1,480) (1,443) (1,625) (2,071)

Non recurring cash flows 462 229 (248) 28 18

Net cash flow 452 (403) (80) 847 607



Movement in cash 452 (403) (80) 847 607

Per share (IDR)

Recurring cash flow per share 1,550 1,797 2,046 2,523 2,664

FCF to equity per share 649 539 1,023 1,552 1,689

Balance Sheet (IDR b) Year Ending Jan 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Working capital assets 810 1,048 1,145 1,226 1,350


Net working capital (251) (392) (271) (232) (187)



Goodwill 53 56 53 49 46



Other assets 817 1,042 1,482 1,605 1,734


Cash & equivalents (1,241) (838) (758) (1,605) (2,212)


Long term debt * 0 0 0 0 0

Net debt (1,241) (838) (758) (1,605) (2,212)



Total equity 7,212 8,140 9,405 11,231 12,849




Per share (IDR)

Book value per share 4,580 5,169 5,972 7,132 8,160

Tangible book value per share 4,546 5,133 5,939 7,101 8,130

Financial strength

Net debt/equity (%) (16.6) (9.9) (7.8) (13.9) (16.7)


Current ratio (x) 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.9 2.3

CF interest cover (x) 75.7 - - - -

Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Recurring P/E (x) * 16.1 13.5 12.0 9.4 8.8


Reported P/E (x) 16.1 13.5 12.0 9.4 8.8

Dividend yield (%) 3.2 4.6 4.4 5.0 6.4

P/CF (x) 13.3 11.5 10.1 8.2 7.8

P/FCF (x) 31.8 38.3 20.2 13.3 12.2

Price/book (x) 4.5 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.5


EV/EBITDA (x) ** 9.5 9.0 7.8 6.2 5.7




Sources: Astra Agro Lestari; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements Salim Ivomas Pratama


Revenue 9,484 12,605 14,437 16,190 17,240




Operating costs (1,008) (1,100) (1,256) (1,376) (1,414)


Depreciation (342) (427) (515) (587) (666)


Operating EBIT 2,537 3,242 3,423 3,930 4,275






Tax (617) (652) (705) (828) (919)

Profit after tax 1,395 2,251 2,433 2,860 3,173




Reported net profit 971 1,667 1,790 2,152 2,394


Recurring net profit 971 1,667 1,790 2,152 2,394

Per share (IDR)

Recurring EPS * 383,692 105 113 136 151

Reported EPS 383,692 105 113 136 151

DPS 0.00 0.00 31.61 33.95 40.82

Growth

Revenue (%) 4.9 32.9 14.5 12.1 6.5


Operating EBIT (%) 19.3 27.8 5.6 14.8 8.8

Recurring EPS (%) (3.7) (100.0) 7.4 20.2 11.3

Reported EPS (%) (3.7) (100.0) 7.4 20.2 11.3





Net margin (%) 10.2 13.2 12.4 13.3 13.9



Interest cover (x) 4.8 9.6 12.0 16.2 23.4

Inventory days 78.4 69.8 67.4 65.1 67.0

Debtor days 29.7 26.9 26.2 25.5 26.2

Creditor days 36.8 32.5 31.3 30.1 30.9

Operating ROIC (%) 14.5 17.6 16.2 16.9 16.9

Operating ROIC - WACC (%) - - - - -

ROIC (%) 10.6 13.7 13.3 14.0 13.9

ROIC - WACC (%) - - - - -

ROE (%) 13.3 16.3 13.4 14.5 14.5

ROA (%) 8.9 10.8 10.3 11.5 11.8


Sources: Salim Ivomas Pratama; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements Salim Ivomas Pratama

Cash Flow (IDR b) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Recurring net profit 971 1,667 1,790 2,152 2,394

Depreciation 342 427 515 587 666




Change in working capital (213) (390) (153) (288) 0

Capex - maintenance 0 0 0 0 0

Capex - new investment (1,481) (2,200) (2,300) (2,300) (2,600)

Free cash flow to equity 43 88 496 858 460


Dividends paid 0 0 (500) (537) (646)

Non recurring cash flows (4,351) 4,017 (18) (137) 461

Net cash flow (4,308) 4,105 (22) 184 275

Equity finance 3,349 0 0 0 0

Debt finance 1,515 (1,233) (1,384) (769) (682)

Movement in cash 556 2,872 (1,406) (585) (407)

Per share (IDR)

Recurring cash flow per share 686,340 169 186 218 193

FCF to equity per share 16,844 5.58 31.33 54.25 29.08

Balance Sheet (IDR b) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E






Goodwill 2,246 2,313 2,383 2,454 2,528



Other assets 2,355 1,066 1,240 1,568 1,999



Short term debt 2,816 3,334 2,821 2,665 2,520

Long term debt * 5,678 3,926 3,055 2,443 1,905

Net debt 6,320 2,214 2,267 2,069 1,793


Other liabilities 1,545 1,633 1,748 1,870 2,001

Total equity 7,732 12,748 14,038 15,653 17,402

Minority interests 2,007 2,423 2,786 3,204 3,685



Per share (IDR)

Book value per share 3,055,460 806 888 990 1,100

Tangible book value per share 2,167,936 660 737 835 940

Financial strength

Net debt/equity (%) 64.9 14.6 13.5 11.0 8.5


Current ratio (x) 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6


Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Recurring P/E (x) * 0.0 12.4 11.6 9.6 8.7


Reported P/E (x) 0.0 12.4 11.6 9.6 8.7

Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.6 3.1

P/CF (x) 0.0 7.7 7.0 6.0 6.8

P/FCF (x) 0.1 234.6 41.8 24.1 45.1

Price/book (x) 0.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2


EV/EBITDA (x) ** 2.7 4.6 6.5 5.7 5.3




Sources: Salim Ivomas Pratama; BNP Paribas estimates



Financial statements BW Plantation


Revenue 712 888 1,146 1,640 2,080

Cost of sales ex depreciation (207) (224) (286) (353) (425)

Gross profit ex depreciation 505 665 860 1,287 1,655


Operating costs (96) (131) (143) (180) (229)

Operating EBITDA 409 534 717 1,106 1,426

Depreciation (38) (51) (68) (98) (143)


Operating EBIT 371 483 648 1,009 1,283





Profit before tax 333 430 539 869 1,143

Tax (89) (110) (135) (217) (286)

Profit after tax 244 320 404 652 858




Reported n

BNP Paribas - Asian Agribusiness - 2o12

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