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iIMPAGINATION INC.

127 Delaware Ave.

Toronto, Ontario

Canada M6H 2S9

t. 416.538.3330f. 416.530.4577

www.impaginationinc.com

BLUE SKY

FESTIVALS

TOURISM STUDY

[ PRESENTED TO ]Blue Sky Economic

Growth Corporation

[ PRESENTED BY ]

Impagination Inc.

Chris Setchell

October 6, 2005

Blue Sky Festivals Tourism Study

Supported by:

Impagination Inc. © 2005 Page 1

Background

In 2005, both the North Bay Heritage Festival and the Mattawa Voyageur Days Festival experienced a positive

turnaround in their performance. Using a new format, paid attendance at the Heritage Festival increased by 57% over

2004. The Voyageur Days Festival increased wristband sales by 21% compared to 2004.

Both of these festivals are a positive contribution to the communities they serve, spurring economic activity and

increasing community spirit and involvement.

Increased tourism is often cited as one of the benefits of both festivals. The objective of this Study is to identify:

i) the level of tourism activity generated by both festivals,

ii) opportunities to increase tourism by both festivals, and

iii) opportunities to maximize marketing investments used to attract tourism.

For tourists in Ontario in general, festivals and are not a major reason to travel. Approximately 6% of all recreational

person-visits within the province include attendance at a festival or fair. A previous study conducted by Impagination

suggests that recreational travelers to the Blue Sky Region display a similar level of interest in festivals and fairs –

about 6% of person-visits include attendance at a festival or fair on trips that include the Blue Sky Region.

Therefore, we can safely conclude that festivals and fairs are not a major tourism driver for the Region. However,

there may be specific audiences that are attracted to the Region because of a festival or event.

The Region should not be offended by this conclusion. Experts in measuring tourism activity agree that this it is

unusual for regional festivals to attract a significant portion of their audience from outside their local community. The

festivals that do attract significant tourism activity tend to be larger, are close to larger urban markets, have significant

marketing budgets and target a specific audience or interest group.

This Study estimates that tourists (people who live more than 80km) from the festival site account for slightly more

than 20% of all visitors to the Heritage and Voyageur Days Festivals. It also provides a ballpark estimate that 5 out of 6

of these tourists were already in the Region for other reasons when they attended the festival. In other words, we

estimate that only 1 out of 6 tourists initiated their visit specifically to attend one of these two festivals.


In addition, the Study shows that the Region’s festivals are best at attracting people north of the Region and

particularly from areas that are within “day trip” distance from the festivals.

The Study concludes that there are three opportunities to increase the tourism impact of the Region’s festivals and the

effectiveness of investments in marketing:

i) focus marketing on the high potential audiences identified by the Study (Sudbury and region, The Hwy 11

corridor, adjacent parts of Quebec),

ii) combine and leverage the marketing investment (particularly the media buying power) of the Regions’

festivals to maximize ROI, and

iii) use the festivals to personify the brand of the Region – more traditional, outdoor adventure activity events

It is important to remember that the Study does not evaluate the positive community effects of the festivals. This

includes retained spending within the community by the local population who may otherwise seek entertainment

opportunities elsewhere and increases in community spirit and involvement generated by participating in the festival.


Summary, Recommendations and Conclusions

General Festivals

1. Festivals and events are not a significant reason why tourists, in general, initiate visits to the Region.

According to the most recent data for Nipissing District1 , festivals and events are not a critical component of

most tourists’ experience – only 6% of recreational person-visits to the District include attendance at a festival

or fair.

2. The total number of person-visits to the District that include attendance at a festival or fair is approximately

55,000. Recreational visitors account for approximately 36,000 person-visits. Visitors whose primary trip

purpose is business, visiting friends and relatives or other personal reasons account for the other 19,000

person-visits.

3. Since the Region’s festivals do not appear to be important to a broad cross-section of the Region’s visitors,

marketing of the Region’s festivals and events to large, un-segmented, non-local, markets will be cost

ineffective. The corollary to this conclusion is that festival marketing must focus on targets that show a “high

potential” to attend the Region’s festivals.

4. There are three possible relationships between the Nipissing District festivals and its visitors (with our

estimate of size).

a. Visitors that do not attend festivals – 1.36 million person-visits (96% of total).

b. Visitors that attend festivals to enhance a pre-existing trip – 50,000 person-visits (3.6%).

c. Visitors that attend festivals as their primary trip purpose – 5,000 person-visits (<0.4%).

5. In the case of tourists that enhance their pre-existing visit by attending a festival, we assume that spending at

the festival offers little Regional economic impact, as the visitor spending at the festival is not incremental –

they likely would spend a similar amount on other activities within the Region.

1 Both the Heritage Festival and Voyageur Days Festival are located in Nipissing District.


6. Based on our estimate of incremental person-visits generated by the festivals (∼ ______, we recommend that

caution be used when considering large financial investments in the Region’s festivals with incremental

tourism as the justification.

7. Since the Region’s festivals are more likely to be tourism enhancers than initiators of new visits, the

marketing of the festivals to tourists, the message, media selection and timing of delivery should reflect the

role of a trip enhancer.

8. From an existing or potential visitors’ perspective, the type and content of the Region’s festivals and events

could either strengthen or undermine the Region’s brand, whether the visitor attends the festival or not. The

tourism impact and value of the Region’s festivals as “brand builders” may be a more important role for

festivals than the direct economic impact of the incremental visitors. We recommend that future investments

that use tourism as a justification, should only be made in “brand positive” festivals or events.

Heritage Festival

9. The 2005 Heritage Festival had 23,362 fee-paying attendees – 81% advance ticket sales and 19% on-site sales.

10. The Heritage Festival is predominantly a local festival with a small regional component to its audience - 60%

of attendees live within 25km of the Festival site and 20% live between 25 km and 150 km of the site. North

Bay is the primary market for the Festival. The distribution of advance and on-site ticket sales supports the

conclusion that the Festival is a local event.

11. Outside of the local market, the Heritage Festival is strongest in markets that lie north of the line formed by

Hwy 17 and the French River. The “best” regional markets for the Festival appear to be Nipissing District, the

Sudbury region and the Timmins region. These areas account for more than 75% of all festival visitors and

should be the focus of future marketing efforts aimed at attracting incremental visitors whose primary or

major trip purpose is attending the Festival.

12. While the sample size is limited, northwestern, rural Quebec appears to be a good market for the Festival.


13. Urban southern Ontario and the United States do not appear to be good markets for the Heritage Festival.

Despite media spending (contra from Rogers) in urban southern Ontario markets, the Heritage Festival

experienced lower than expected penetration in these markets (based on typical regional travel patterns).

14. The tourism role of the Heritage Festival is predominantly a visit enhancer.

15. We estimate that a maximum of 16% of attendees from outside Nipissing District (<6% of all attendees)

visited the Heritage Festival as the primary or major purpose for their trip to the Region. In other words, the

Festival acted a tourism initiator for less than 1 in 6 tourists who attended the festival and reside more than

75km from the festival site. The “festival initiated” attendees are estimated to 1,500 of the 23,362 attendees.

The tourists whose primary trip purpose is attending the festival are most likely to come from the northern

markets mentioned above.

Voyageur Days Festival

16. The 2005 Mattawa Voyageur Days Festival attracted 3,582 fee-paying visitors – 44% by advance sales and 56%

on site. It should be noted that the Festival includes a substantial number of “free” events and attractions, so

actual attendance cannot be estimated.

17. The Voyageur Days Festival is a regional festival with a strong local component – 47% of attendees live within

25km of the site and 33% live within 25km and 150 km of the site. It attracts a significant proportion of its

attendees from North Bay and this is what makes the distribution of its audience more “regional” than the

Heritage Festival.

18. The festival’s primary non-local markets are North Bay, other parts of Nipissing District and the Sudbury

Region. It also appears to have some market strength in Pembroke.

19. Despite a small sample of visitors from Quebec, it appears that rural, northwestern Quebec may be a good

market for the Festival.

20. Future marketing spending that uses incremental tourism as a justification should be focused on North Bay

and other parts of Nipissing District, Sudbury, southeast along the Ottawa River and perhaps Quebec.

21. The tourism role of the Voyageur Days Festival is predominantly a visit enhancer.


22. Like the Heritage Festival, we estimate that a maximum of 16% of attendees from outside Nipissing District

visited the Voyageur Days Festival as the primary purpose for their trip. In other words, the Festival acted a

tourism initiator for less than 1 in 6 tourists who attended the festival. These tourists are most likely to come

from the northern or eastern markets mentioned above.

Shared Marketing

23. It is clear that the Heritage and Voyageur Days Festivals share common “high potential” tourism markets

such as Sudbury and region, northwestern Quebec and other parts of Nipissing District. Since both products

and markets are similar, we recommend that the two Festivals combine future marketing investments.

Vertical Market Events

24. Our hypothesis, at the initiation of the Study, was that vertical market events will be more effective at:

a. acting as tourism initiators, and

b. attracting tourists from the Central Ontario market that is the core of Blue Sky Regional tourism.

25. The data is not available in sufficient sample sizes or quality to allow us to test this hypothesis.


Objective

The objective of this study is to evaluate the tourism potential and marketing opportunities of existing Blue Sky

festivals and events. By “tourism potential,” we mean the ability to attract additional visitors from beyond each

festivals’ or events’ local area. The study is exclusively an examination of the tourism potential of the Region’s

festivals. It is not an examination of the recreational, social or cultural contribution of festivals and events to local

communities and their citizens.

Background

The study was conducted based on data collected during the summer of 2005. It is primarily an evaluation of the

North Bay Heritage and Mattawa Voyageur Days Festivals. It also includes some analysis of the Step and Fiddle

Festival in Sturgeon Falls, the Mattawa ATV Rallies and the North Bay to Mattawa Canoe Race. There was no specific

reason for the selection of these events other than data was available or could be collected within the timeframe of the

study.

It is obvious that the festivals and events (F&E) in the Blue Sky Region attract a number of visitors and enhance the

visits of many tourists already in the Region. This fact is not in question. The question really is: “Is it reasonable to

expect that further investment in marketing of festivals and events outside of the Region can attract additional visitors

in sufficient numbers to justify the investment?”

Three Possible F&E Relationships with Visitors

We believe that visitors to the Blue Sky Region have three possible relationships with the Region’s festivals and

events:

1. attend festivals and events to enhance a pre-existing trip,

2. attend festivals and events as their primary or major trip purpose, or

3. do not attend festivals and events while on a trip to the Region.


Relationship 1: Attend Festivals to Enhance A Visit

Intuitively, we know that some portion of attendees use the Region’s festivals and events as additional recreational or

entertainment opportunities during a trip to the Region. These attendees may be in the area visiting friends and

relatives or enjoying a recreational visit made for other reasons such as a lakeside family vacation.

Festivals and events as trip enhancers can be a critical element of a Region’s tourism “experience.” A good festival

experience can provide additional “content” for a trip and, as a result, can affect the timing of a trip or repeat trips in

future years. A lack of festivals or other sights and activities can leave visitors feeling that there is nothing to do in the

Region.

The study does not examine the value of the existing festivals and events as contributing to the “density” or quality of

the Region’s travel experience. The objective, as stated previously, is to examine the potential of the Region’s festivals

and events to attract additional tourists to the Region. However, stakeholders in the Region’s festivals and events

must not forget that festivals and events contribute to the content of tourism experience even if they don’t initiate new

visits.

The Study does not examine the potential for increased attendance by the Region’s existing visitors through more

effective marketing to this audience.

Marketing of festivals as tourism experience enhancers can increase attendance from tourists who are in the market at

the time of the festival or event. Obviously, increased “tourism enhancement” attendance will improve the economic

performance of the individual festivals. However, as this report will discuss, increased attendance by existing visitors

will not generate substantial incremental economic impact for the Region, as a whole, due to spending substitution

effects. Marketing of festivals as tourism enhancers should focus on delivery of the message at the accommodation,

restaurants, bars, marinas and other recreational facilities frequented by visitors or on websites and in media used by

visitors to plan their vacations.


Relationship 2: Attend Festivals as the Primary Reason For Trip

Some portion of the festival attendees will travel to the Region with the primary or major purpose of attending a

festival or fair. It is this role of festivals and events – as initiators of new visitors - which this Study is attempting to

measure.

This distribution – between “tourism enhancer” (Relationship #1) and “tourism initiator” (Relationship #2) – is

really the crux of the problem and should determine the types and frequency of future marketing programs. If

attendance at festivals and events is predominantly an enhancement to an existing visit – then marketing to increase

attendance should focus on visitors that are in the Region during the time of the festivals and events. If festivals and

events initiate new trips, then the marketing of festivals and events should focus on those markets that show the

highest propensity to make attendance at a festival or event the primary or major reason for their trip.

Relationship 3: Do Not Attend Festivals

A visitor may choose not to attend any festival or event while visiting the Region. Festival non-attendance could result,

for example, from a lack of relevance of the festivals and festival content to visitors’ travel experience, lack of

willingness to travel additional distances to the festival site, or simply a lack of awareness of festival content. As

mentioned previously, it may be possible to convert some portion of existing visitors’ non-attendance to attendance,

but that is outside the scope of the Study.

The challenge is reaching a balance between the needs of the local audience and the visiting population. The local

audience provides the largest group of attendees and revenue for the Region’s festivals and events. The selection of

content and also the choice of messaging and channel selection in marketing programs to reach the local audience

may not be effective at reaching the visiting population. Conversely, content that would appeal to the visitor may

generate minimal interest among the local population.

This is a possible conundrum faced by each of the Region’s festivals and events. If the event generates strong

attendance from the local community, attempting to modify the content and marketing to increase attendance by

visitors may diminish the event’s appeal and attendance by the local population.


A Perspective on the Tourism Impact of Blue Sky Festivals

Using the data generated by the Blue Sky Marketing and Economic Impact Study (Impagination, 2004), we know that

the vast majority of visitors to the Region do not attend a festival or fair. The previous study estimates that only 4% of

all person-visits to the Region included attendance at a festival or fair2 . For Blue Sky recreational visitors, the average

festival participation was 6%.

The Blue Sky Region is about the same as the rest of the province in this respect. Approximately 6% of recreational

visitors within the Province of Ontario attend a festival or fair while on their trip. In absolute numbers, the total

number of person-visits that include attendance at a festival or fair in Nipissing District accounts for approximately

55,000 person-visits per year.

Impagination’s previous analysis of Blue Sky tourism revealed that “attending festivals and fairs” was only 20th of 29

activities engaged in by recreational visitors during a trip that included the Region. In contrast, 38% of the Region’s

recreational visitors went sightseeing, 36% fished and 28% went boating.

The relative lack of importance of festivals in the mix of visitor activities suggests that festivals are not, in general,

broad-based tourism initiators to the Region and, therefore, marketing of festivals to large, non-segmented mass

markets will not be cost effective. Impagination suggests that future marketing and advertising expenditures must

focus on targeted markets that show a much higher than average propensity for festival attendance.

From the previous study, we know that persons who express their primary reason to visit as “business”, “visiting

friends and relatives” and “personal reasons,” account for roughly one-third of person-visits (or 19,000 person-visits)

that attend festivals and fairs. In these cases, attendance at a festival is clearly made as an enhancement to a trip made

for other reasons. Of the District’s approximately 1.37 million annual person-visits only 55,000 include attendance at

a festival or fair, and a maximum of 36,000 person-visits could possibly be made for the primary purpose of attending

one of the District’s festivals or fairs.

2 The technical definition for participation in an activity is “participated in the activity while on a trip that included the Region.” This means that

festival attendance may have occurred outside of the Region. In other words the visitor may have attended a festival in Pembroke and then

traveled on to Blue Sky. Therefore, the numbers reported represent the “best case” for the Region and actual attendance may be lower. However,

for the purpose of this Study, the potential error generated assuming all festival attendance takes place within the Region has little impact on the

Study’s conclusions and recommendations.


It is more likely that the 36,000 person-visits are split between tourists attending festivals to enhance their visit and

people who are visiting with festival attendance as the primary purpose of their visit. The study attempts to estimate

the proportion of the Festival attendees in each of these groups.

To keep the tourism value of Blue Sky Region’s festivals in perspective, a soon to be released guideline3 for evaluating

the economic impact of festivals within regions, suggests that the economic impact of festivals from tourism is

usually overstated because substitution effects of spending at festivals are not usually considered.

When a visitor is already in the area and enhancing their visit by attending a festival or event, their spending at the

event should not be considered as incremental spending in the Region generated by the event. It is a substitution for

other spending within the Region. In other words, tourists would probably have spent a similar amount of money on

some other form of entertainment or activity and purchased food or souvenirs at another location within the Region

that they are visiting, had they decided not to attend that particular event.

If a festival or event is predominantly a trip enhancement for visitors, then the incremental economic impact from

tourism is minimal. If a festival or event can demonstrate a high level of trip initiation – the festival or event is the

primary or major purpose of attendees’ visits – then there will be a commensurate amount of incremental economic

impact.

Other Important Roles For Festivals

We have already mentioned that the Region’s festivals and events may benefit their local communities in ways other

than increased tourism that we did not examine in this Study. For example, a festival may:

1. Retained spending by residents in local community

2. Opportunities for community involvement

3. Adding to the “density” of possible visitor experiences.

3 The partners producing this guideline include the Canadian Tourism Commission, Dept. of Canadian Heritage and theMinistries of Tourism from a number of provinces including PEI, Ontario, Yukon, Alberta and B.C. The draft guideline may beavailable by the end of 2005.


There is one other potential role of the Region’s festivals. The value of the festival or event as personifying the brand

of the Region. The existing or potential visitor, whether they attend a festival or not, will gather an image of the

Region’s brand from the marketing of the Region’s festivals and events. In our opinion as marketers, this benefit can

be more pronounced and have greater long-term tourism impact than the festival does as a standalone entity. Upon

examining the spectrum of festivals and events in the Region, we are of the opinion that some events and festivals

strongly support and personify the Region’s brand, others neither harm nor benefit the brand and there are others

that would strongly diminish the brand’s value if they were marketed alongside the Region’s “brand positive” festivals

and events.

In conclusion, if future investments are made in festivals and events using tourism as a justification, the most

reasonable justification other than pure economic benefit, is that the festival or event adds to the value of the Region’s

brand. The corollary to this is that festivals or events that do not add to the brand – and can’t be proven to generate

direct tourism traffic into the Region – probably should not be the focus of investment using tourism as a

justification.


General Audience Festivals

The study examined two “general audience” festivals – the North Bay Heritage and Voyageur Days Festivals.

The North Bay Heritage Festival

The Heritage Festival is held on the Civic Holiday long weekend. For 2005, the Festival required a wristband for all

events and activities except for the Midway that operated outside of the main festival grounds. Total wristband sales

for the Festival were 23, 653; 19,089 (81%) in advance and 4,564 (19%) at the gate. Impagination, with the help of

Festival volunteers, collected 2,856 usable postal codes from a random sample of attendees over the age of 18. The

“wristband only access” was new for 2005 as was the elimination of the festival’s air show – a feature of the festival

for many previous years.

Local Festival

The Heritage Festival is predominantly a local festival with a regional component to its attendance – 58% of attendees

live within 25km of the festival and 80% of attendees live within 150 km of the festival. The primary market for the

Festival is North Bay itself. The distribution of advance and on-site tickets sales appears to confirm the “local festival”

nature of the Heritage Festival.

Table 1 – Heritage Festival Distance Impact Analysis

Band Radius Attendees % Cumulative %1 0 - 25 km 1657 58.02 1657 58.022 25 - 75 km 287 10.05 1944 68.073 75 - 150 km 287 10.05 2231 78.124 > 150 km 625 21.88 2856 100

Total 2856 100

More than 97% of Heritage Festival attendees reside in the province of Ontario and 1.6% of all attendees reside in the

Province of Quebec. The visitors from Quebec reside primarily in the rural, northwestern region of Quebec. With the

exception of the visitors from Quebec, the festival does not attract substantial numbers of visitors from other

provinces or the United States.


North/South Bias

We examined the north/south bias of the of attendees to the Festival by drawing an imaginary line along Hwy 17 and

the French River and then determining the percentage of the sample who lived north or south of the line. Only non-

local residents were included in this analysis, defined as people who live more than 25 km from the Festival site. Our

analysis shows that 38% of all “non-local” attendees live north of the line and 62% live south of it.

Table 2 – Heritage Festival North/South Distance Impact Analysis

Band Radius Attendees % Cumulative %1 North 497 38.12 497 38.122 South 623 61.88 1120 100

Total 1120 100

On the surface, this analysis may suggest that the Festival is better at attracting “southern” visitors. However, only 6%

of all the households in the province are located north of the line and 94% are south of the line. The Festival has a

much higher penetration of northern markets – 38% of non-local attendees reside in an area representing only 6% of

households.

Target Markets

The household penetration of Heritage Festival sample was calculated at the Forward Sortation Area4 (FSA) level. The

highest levels of household penetration – the largest ratios of attendees per household - represent the “best” markets

for the Festival.

The best three markets for the festival based on household penetration are North Bay itself – once again confirming

that the Festival is predominantly a “local” festival.

All of the top 10 markets for the Festival, representing 70% of the sample, are local or are located north of the Festival.

All of the top 25 markets, with one exception, are local or located north of the Festival. The top 25 represent 82% of

the sample. This analysis confirms that incremental tourism opportunities for the Festival will most likely be found in

4 FSAs are represented by the first 3 letters/numbers of the postal code. The province is divided into approximately 500 FSAs.


adjacent regional markets located north of North Bay. However, the predominant market strength of the Heritage

Festival is as a local rather than tourism event.

Table 3 – Heritage Festival FSA Market Penetration Analysis (Top 15)

Rank CODE AREA NAMEHeritage Festival

SampleHouseholds

SamplePenetration (%)

1 P1C North Bay 86 487 17.662 P1A North Bay 509 7123 7.153 P1B North Bay 936 14798 6.334 P0H North Bay Rural 329 12957 2.545 P2B Sturgeon Falls 44 3244 1.366 P2N Kirkland Falls 21 3102 0.687 P4R Timmins 6 923 0.658 P3Y Lively 15 2825 0.539 P3A Sudbury 50 9608 0.5210 P4P Timmins 4 848 0.4711 P0J Sudbury 35 8421 0.4212 P3N Val Caron 13 3290 0.4013 P3B Sudbury 26 6616 0.3914 P3L Garson 13 3341 0.3915 P3P Hanmer 17 4582 0.37

We also analyzed the Heritage Festival sample at the Census Division5 (CD) level. The same pattern emerges. The best

market for the festival is the local area followed by adjacent regions to the North.

Table 4 – Heritage Festival CD Market Penetration Analysis (Top 8)

Rank CD Code CSD NameHeritage Festival

SampleHouseholds

SamplePenetration (%)

1 3548 Nipissing District 1844 34900 5.282 3549 Parry Sound District 88 17450 0.503 3554 Timiskaming District 63 13803 0.464 3553 Greater Sudbury Division 233 66178 0.355 3556 Cochrane District 88 33426 0.266 3551 Manitoulin District 11 5292 0.217 3552 Sudbury District 19 9369 0.208 3544 Muskoka District Municipality 16 22199 0.07

5 Ontario is divided into 49 Census Divisions.


We plotted the data from the sample on the map of Ontario shown on the following page. While this “dot distribution

map” provides an interesting visual presentation of the range of locations of attendees, it is misleading if used as a

method to identify high potential markets. The map appears to show a high concentration of attendees from

Southern Ontario. First, this distribution is low when considered in the context of the total number of households in

Southern Ontario and second, the map resolution means that the dots representing attendees in high-density markets

overlap – i.e. not all dots are visible in North Bay and region.

Conclusion

The Heritage Festival is predominantly a local festival with a modest regional component. From a tourism

perspective, it has the greatest success at attracting visitors and from adjacent areas that are north of the Festival site.

The split of wristband sales – 81% in advance and 19% on site – is, in our opinion, a further indication of the local

focus of the Festival since “locals” have a much higher likelihood of purchasing in advance.

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f

September 2005

Legend

IMPAGINATIONCUSTOMER DISTRIBUTION MAP - HERITAGE FESTIVAL

58.0 Km

Highways

P1B2T5lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllHeritage FestivalVisitors


The Mattawa Voyageur Days Festival

Mattawa Voyageur Days Festival is held during the last full weekend in July before the Civic Holiday weekend. It

immediately precedes the North Bay Heritage Festival. Voyageur Days includes a “for fee” festival area that features

bands in the evening, special events for children during the day and an outdoor beer tent. Attendees must purchase

wristbands for entry to this area. Voyageur Days also includes a number of “un-gated” or free events such as buskers,

vendors and street events including the lumberjack competition and the finish of the North Bay to Mattawa Canoe

Race.

Wristband purchases for this year were 3,582; 1592 or 44% in advance and 1m 1,990 (56%) on-site. This represents a

21% increase in wristband sales over 2004. There is no accurate measure of attendance by visitors who only attended

the “un-gated” portion of the festival only.

Postal codes were collected randomly from 2,311 fee paying and non-fee paying visitors (i.e. attendees at the un-gated

events).

Local/Regional Festival

The Voyageur Days Festival is a local/regional festival with a stronger regional component than the Heritage Festival –

less than half of the sample, 47%, live within 25km of the festival. Regional visitors – those that live between 25km

and 150 km represent 29% of the sample and 24% of the sample live more than 150 km from the festival.

While the primary market for the Festival is Mattawa itself, it appears to have a somewhat stronger regional (i.e.

“tourism”) component to its audience.

Table 5 – Voyageur Days Festival Distance Impact Analysis

Band Radius Attendees % Cumulative %1 0 - 25 km 1080 46.73 1080 46.732 25 - 75 km 494 21.38 1574 68.113 75 - 150 km 172 7.44 1746 75.554 > 150 km 565 24.45 2311 100

Total 2311 100


More than 94% of Voyageur Days’ sample resides in the province of Ontario and 2.0% of the sample resides in the

Province of Quebec.

North/South Bias

The Voyageur Days Festival displays the same northern “bias” to its audience as the Heritage Festival - 40% of all

attendees who live more than 25km from the Festival site, live north of the Hwy 17/French River line and 60% live

south of it. This suggests that “northern” residents offer a much better potential market for the Festival.

Table 6 – Voyageur Days Festival North/South Distance Impact Analysis

Band Radius Attendees % Cumulative %1 North 461 40.19 461 40.192 South 686 50.81 1147 100

Total 1147 100

Target Markets

The household penetration of Voyageur Days Festival sample was calculated at the FSA level. The highest levels of

household penetration represent the “best” markets for the Festival.

The best market for the festival based on household penetration is the rural area that includes Mattawa and a large

part of Nipissing District – confirming that the Festival is predominantly a “local” festival. The next three “best”

markets are North Bay. In total, the Mattawa region and North Bay represent 69% of all attendees to the Festival.

The top 10 markets for the Festival represent 76% of the sample. These markets are local or are located north of the

Festival with a single exception – Pembroke. When the top 25 markets are examined, representing 83% of attendees,

the markets follow a similar local and northern regional focus as the Heritage Festival. Of note is the fact that

Voyageur Days does appear to have some market penetration in the Ottawa Valley (Pembroke and Petawawa) and in

Waterloo Region.


Table 7 – Voyageur Days Festival FSA Market Penetration Analysis (Top 15)

Rank CODE AREA NAMEVoyageur Days

SampleHouseholds

PenetrationSample (%)

1 P0H North Bay Rural 1242 12957 9.592 P1C North Bay 14 487 2.873 P1B North Bay 225 14798 1.524 P1A North Bay 108 7123 1.525 K1P Ottawa: Centretown 2 250 0.806 P2B Sturgeon Falls 23 3244 0.717 K8A Pembroke 49 8148 0.608 P3P Hanmer 20 4582 0.449 P0L Timmins 41 9489 0.4310 P0A Newmarket 20 7193 0.2811 P0J Sudbury 21 8421 0.2512 P5A Elliot Lake 14 5622 0.2513 K8H Petawawa 10 4290 0.2314 P3A Sudbury 22 9608 0.2315 K4R Russell 3 1814 0.17

At a broader level, when the sample of attendees is analyzed at the Census Division (CD) level, the same pattern

emerges. The best markets for the festival are local and regional areas to the North. In addition, it appears that the

Renfrew County may be a strong market for the Festival.

Table 8 – Voyageur Days Festival CD Market Penetration Analysis (Top 8)

Rank CD Code CD NameVoyageur Days

VisitorsHouseholds

PenetrationSample (%)

1 3548 Nipissing District 1553 34900 4.452 3549 Parry Sound District 78 17450 0.453 3547 Renfrew County 96 38841 0.254 3556 Cochrane District 64 33426 0.195 3554 Timiskaming District 21 13803 0.156 3552 Sudbury District 13 9369 0.147 3553 Greater Sudbury Division 89 66178 0.138 3551 Manitoulin District 7 5292 0.13


Conclusion

The Voyageur Festival is predominantly a local/regional festival based on its strength in attracting visitors from the

North Bay area. From a tourism perspective, it has the greatest success at attracting visitors from adjacent areas that

are north of the Festival site and in the Ottawa valley. The split of wristband sales – 44% in advance and 56% on site –

is, in our opinion, a further indication of the local/regional status of the Festival.

lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll



MattawaMattawaMattawaMattawaMattawaMattawaMattawaMattawaMattawa



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f

September 2005

Legend

IMPAGINATIONCUSTOMER DISTRIBUTION MAP - MATTAWA VOYAGEUR DAYS

58.0 Km

Highways

MattawalllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllMattawa VoyageurDays Visitors


Shared Marketing

As the following map shows, the two Festivals share many common high potential markets. Since both festivals offer

a similar product and attract audiences from common markets, it makes sense that future marketing investments

should be combined in order to achieve maximum impact for the investment.

The U.S., the GTA and adjacent portions of the Province of Quebec are often identified as strong potential markets for

Blue Sky tourism.

In the case of the Region’s “general interest” festivals, it is clear that the GTA and southern Ontario do not offer “high

potential” markets and should not be targets of marketing investments. The Heritage Festival received contra radio

advertising from Rogers in Toronto and other urban centres in southern Ontario. As the data shows, this advertising

appears to have had little impact in terms of attracting attendees to the Festival. In contrast, both the Heritage and

Voyageur Days Festivals spent money on advertising in adjacent northern communities and this spending appears to

have delivered some incremental attendees. Mattawa Voyageur Days also invested in advertising in the Ottawa region

and this spending appears to have had a successful spillover effect in Renfrew County (Pembroke and Petawawa).

The number of U.S. visitors in the combined sample for both festivals was insignificant (>0.1%). When you consider

that U.S. visitors represent roughly 5% of recreational visitors to the Region, it suggests that U.S. residents have little

interest in the Region’s festivals.

The number of Quebec visitors in the sample was significant (∼2%) and the vast majority of these attendees reside in

locations concentrated in the adjacent northwestern portion of Quebec. While the analysis is not definitive, it

suggests that Quebec residents from these areas may be good targets for future marketing efforts.

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K6HK6HK6HK6HK6HK6HK6HK6HK6H

K6TK6TK6TK6TK6TK6TK6TK6TK6T


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L1GL1GL1GL1GL1GL1GL1GL1GL1GL1NL1NL1NL1NL1NL1NL1NL1NL1N

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L3XL3XL3XL3XL3XL3XL3XL3XL3X

L3ZL3ZL3ZL3ZL3ZL3ZL3ZL3ZL3Z




L4ML4ML4ML4ML4ML4ML4ML4ML4ML4NL4NL4NL4NL4NL4NL4NL4NL4N



L4TL4TL4TL4TL4TL4TL4TL4TL4T

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L6VL6VL6VL6VL6VL6VL6VL6VL6V

L7BL7BL7BL7BL7BL7BL7BL7BL7BL7EL7EL7EL7EL7EL7EL7EL7EL7E

L7GL7GL7GL7GL7GL7GL7GL7GL7GL7JL7JL7JL7JL7JL7JL7JL7JL7J

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L9WL9WL9WL9WL9WL9WL9WL9WL9W

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M8VM8VM8VM8VM8VM8VM8VM8VM8V

N0AN0AN0AN0AN0AN0AN0AN0AN0A

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N0CN0CN0CN0CN0CN0CN0CN0CN0C

N0EN0EN0EN0EN0EN0EN0EN0EN0E

N0GN0GN0GN0GN0GN0GN0GN0GN0G

N0HN0HN0HN0HN0HN0HN0HN0HN0H

N0JN0JN0JN0JN0JN0JN0JN0JN0J

N0KN0KN0KN0KN0KN0KN0KN0KN0K

N0LN0LN0LN0LN0LN0LN0LN0LN0L

N0MN0MN0MN0MN0MN0MN0MN0MN0M

N0NN0NN0NN0NN0NN0NN0NN0NN0N

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N0RN0RN0RN0RN0RN0RN0RN0RN0R



N1EN1EN1EN1EN1EN1EN1EN1EN1E

N1MN1MN1MN1MN1MN1MN1MN1MN1M


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N2ZN2ZN2ZN2ZN2ZN2ZN2ZN2ZN2Z



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N4WN4WN4WN4WN4WN4WN4WN4WN4W

N4XN4XN4XN4XN4XN4XN4XN4XN4X

N4ZN4ZN4ZN4ZN4ZN4ZN4ZN4ZN4Z





N5VN5VN5VN5VN5VN5VN5VN5VN5V

N5ZN5ZN5ZN5ZN5ZN5ZN5ZN5ZN5ZN6HN6HN6HN6HN6HN6HN6HN6HN6H

N6LN6LN6LN6LN6LN6LN6LN6LN6L N6NN6NN6NN6NN6NN6NN6NN6NN6N


N7GN7GN7GN7GN7GN7GN7GN7GN7G

N7LN7LN7LN7LN7LN7LN7LN7LN7LN7MN7MN7MN7MN7MN7MN7MN7MN7M

N7SN7SN7SN7SN7SN7SN7SN7SN7S



N8NN8NN8NN8NN8NN8NN8NN8NN8NN8SN8SN8SN8SN8SN8SN8SN8SN8S



N9VN9VN9VN9VN9VN9VN9VN9VN9VN9YN9YN9YN9YN9YN9YN9YN9YN9Y

P0AP0AP0AP0AP0AP0AP0AP0AP0A

P0BP0BP0BP0BP0BP0BP0BP0BP0B

P0CP0CP0CP0CP0CP0CP0CP0CP0C

P0EP0EP0EP0EP0EP0EP0EP0EP0E

P0GP0GP0GP0GP0GP0GP0GP0GP0G

P0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0H

P0PP0PP0PP0PP0PP0PP0PP0PP0P

P0RP0RP0RP0RP0RP0RP0RP0RP0R



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P1LP1LP1LP1LP1LP1LP1LP1LP1L







P3LP3LP3LP3LP3LP3LP3LP3LP3LP3NP3NP3NP3NP3NP3NP3NP3NP3N


P3YP3YP3YP3YP3YP3YP3YP3YP3YP5AP5AP5AP5AP5AP5AP5AP5AP5A


P6AP6AP6AP6AP6AP6AP6AP6AP6AP6BP6BP6BP6BP6BP6BP6BP6BP6B

401401401401401401401401401416416416416416416416416416

115115115115115115115115115

666666666407407407407407407407407407

406406406406406406406406406

402402402402402402402402402

111111111111111111

121212121212121212

400400400400400400400400400

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414141414141414141

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333333333333333333

127127127127127127127127127

373737373737373737

626262626262626262134134134134134134134134134

353535353535353535

999999999

101010101010101010898989898989898989

242424242424242424333333333

777777777232323232323232323

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191919191919191919

404040404040404040

212121212121212121444444444

262626262626262626

707070707070707070939393939393939393

118118118118118118118118118

141141141141141141141141141

606060606060606060

121121121121121121121121121

523523523523523523523523523

531531531531531531531531531

533533533533533533533533533539539539539539539539539539

575575575575575575575575575

636363636363636363

646464646464646464

949494949494949494

124124124124124124124124124

518518518518518518518518518

520520520520520520520520520

522522522522522522522522522

529529529529529529529529529

534534534534534534534534534

612612612612612612612612612

654654654654654654654654654

637637637637637637637637637

144144144144144144144144144

535535535535535535535535535

553553553553553553553553553

607607607607607607607607607

537537537537537537537537537

108108108108108108108108108

129129129129129129129129129

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552552552552552552552552552

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132132132132132132132132132

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454545454545454545

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507507507507507507507507507

649649649649649649649649649

503503503503503503503503503

252525252525252525

868686868686868686

565656565656565656

595959595959595959

515151515151515151

787878787878787878

181818181818181818

797979797979797979

808080808080808080

222222222222222222737373737373737373

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169169169169169169169169169

929292929292929292

117117117117117117117117117

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538538538538538538538538538

555555555555555555555555555

639639639639639639639639639

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535353535353535353

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848484848484848484

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512512512512512512512512512

513513513513513513513513513515515515515515515515515515

630630630630630630630630630

656656656656656656656656656

526526526526526526526526526

529A529A529A529A529A529A529A529A529A

559559559559559559559559559

528A528A528A528A528A528A528A528A528A

417417417417417417417417417

171717171717171717

f

September 2005

Legend

IMPAGINATIONCUSTOMER PENETRATION MAP - ONTARIO

56.1 Km

Highways

P0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0HP0H




P0JP0JP0JP0JP0JP0JP0JP0JP0J

P0KP0KP0KP0KP0KP0KP0KP0KP0K

P0LP0LP0LP0LP0LP0LP0LP0LP0L

P0MP0MP0MP0MP0MP0MP0MP0MP0M

P0NP0NP0NP0NP0NP0NP0NP0NP0N


P0RP0RP0RP0RP0RP0RP0RP0RP0R

P0SP0SP0SP0SP0SP0SP0SP0SP0S

P0TP0TP0TP0TP0TP0TP0TP0TP0T

P0VP0VP0VP0VP0VP0VP0VP0VP0V

P0WP0WP0WP0WP0WP0WP0WP0WP0W

P0XP0XP0XP0XP0XP0XP0XP0XP0XP0YP0YP0YP0YP0YP0YP0YP0YP0Y



P2BP2BP2BP2BP2BP2BP2BP2BP2BP3AP3AP3AP3AP3AP3AP3AP3AP3A

P3GP3GP3GP3GP3GP3GP3GP3GP3GP5AP5AP5AP5AP5AP5AP5AP5AP5A






P8TP8TP8TP8TP8TP8TP8TP8TP8T


666666666353535353535353535

533533533533533533533533533

606060606060606060

646464646464646464

124124124124124124124124124

522522522522522522522522522

101101101101101101101101101129129129129129129129129129

144144144144144144144144144

535535535535535535535535535

560560560560560560560560560

607607607607607607607607607

112112112112112112112112112

11B11B11B11B11B11B11B11B11B

566566566566566566566566566

567567567567567567567567567

569569569569569569569569569656565656565656565

666666666666666666

572572572572572572572572572

583583583583583583583583583631631631631631631631631631

655655655655655655655655655

676767676767676767

548548548548548548548548548

553553553553553553553553553556556556556556556556556556

651651651651651651651651651

516516516516516516516516516

527527527527527527527527527

582582582582582582582582582

587587587587587587587587587

589589589589589589589589589

590590590590590590590590590

599599599599599599599599599

625625625625625625625625625

627627627627627627627627627

643643643643643643643643643

502502502502502502502502502

600600600600600600600600600

619619619619619619619619619622622622622622622622622622

623623623623623623623623623717171717171717171

642642642642642642642642642671671671671671671671671671

540540540540540540540540540

593593593593593593593593593

105105105105105105105105105

661661661661661661661661661

634634634634634634634634634584584584584584584584584584

125125125125125125125125125

630630630630630630630630630

563563563563563563563563563

580580580580580580580580580

585585585585585585585585585

586586586586586586586586586

588588588588588588588588588

614614614614614614614614614

811811811811811811811811811

525525525525525525525525525

Vistitor PenetrationBy FSA

Greater Than 50.5 to 50.25 to 0.50.01 to 0.25None

FSA Boundaries


Tourism Initiator versus Visit Enhancer – An Estimate

For the roughly 30% of visitors that come from outside Nipissing District to the Festivals, it would be interesting to be

able to identify the proportion that attended the Festivals to enhance a pre-existing trip and those that attended as the

primary purpose of their visit. As discussed previously, the role of the Festivals as tourism enhancer or tourism

initiator is critical to understanding both the Regional impact and the type and level of future marketing investments.

Impagination applied one approach to estimate the tourism initiator versus trip enhancer role of the festivals. Our

approach is not definitive. It is an estimate that we believe provides a reasonable indication of the role of the Festivals.

We also believe that it identifies the most likely markets for visitors whose primary or major trip purpose is the

Festivals.

We compared, by location, the percentage of festival visitors to the average percent of recreational visitors to

Nipissing District (2002 to 2004 data). The analysis is presented in the following two tables. Our assumptions are as

follows:

a. If the percent of festival visitors is disproportionately higher than the average percent of visitors from a

location (factor >120), we assume that some of that difference is a result of Festival visitors whose primary

trip purpose or a major reason for their trip is visiting the festival. In other words, the festival acts a tourism

initiator for some proportion of visitors from the location.

b. If the percent of festival visitors is about the same as the average percentage of visitors from a location (factor

>80 and <120), then we assume that the Festival is simply a trip enhancement for the majority of visitors from

that location.

c. If the percent of festival visitors is disproportionately low from a location, we would say that the festival acts

as neither a trip enhancement nor trip initiator.

We excluded Nipissing District itself from the analysis. We have shown that Nipissing District is the primary market

for both Festivals. We also excluded census divisions where less than 1.0% of all festival visitors or less than 1.0% of

the location of origin of visitors since the small sample sizes could lead to spurious results.


Heritage Festival

Based on our methodology, the most likely markets for tourists that may initiate a trip for the primary purpose of

visiting the Heritage Festival are Quebec, CD 56: Cochrane District, CD52: Greater Sudbury, CD53: Sudbury District

and CD54: Timiskaming District.

Table 9 – Comparison of Voyageur Days Attendees to Average Nipissing District Visitor Composition

Rank CD Code CD NameHeritageFestival

Visitors (%)

NipissingDistrict

Visits (%)Factor

Potential InitiatorMarket

Quebec 5.0 1.7 294 Yes5 3556 Cochrane District 9.4 3.3 280 Yes4 3553 Greater Sudbury Division 24.8 14.8 167 Yes6 3552 Sudbury District 2.0 1.5 132 Yes3 3554 Timiskaming District 6.7 5.4 125 Yes19 3523 Wellington County 1.8 1.5 119 Yes36 3539 Middlesex County 1.4 1.4 10010 3557 Algoma District 2.1 2.2 9932 3518 Durham Regional Municipality 2.6 2.6 9815 3506 Ottawa Division 4.7 4.8 9724 3526 Niagara Regional Municipality 1.9 2.0 958 3547 Renfrew County 1.8 2.0 9017 3530 Waterloo Regional Municipality 2.5 2.7 902 3549 Parry Sound District 9.4 10.7 87

33 3525 Hamilton Division 1.5 2.0 7637 3521 Peel Regional Municipality 3.2 4.8 6714 3543 Simcoe County 2.8 5.1 5445 3520 Toronto Division 4.3 9.9 4335 3519 York Regional Municipality 2.9 7.0 41

United States 1.2 6.3 19

In contrast, it appears that visitors from CD 19: York Region, CD 20: Toronto, CD 43: Simcoe County, CD21: Peel

Region CD 25: Hamilton and the United States have limited interest in the festivals and it is unlikely that significant

numbers of people from these areas initiated a trip for the primary purpose of attending the festival.

As a ballpark estimate of total tourism initiation by the Festival, Impagination assumed that all of “above average”

visits were initiated with the primary purpose of attending the Heritage Festival, this would account for approximately

16% of all visitors from outside the Region. In other words, we estimate that less than 1 in 6 Festival attendees who

reside more than 75 km from the site, have attended the Festival as their primary trip purpose.


This calculation is just an indicator and is an order of magnitude estimate of tourism initiation due to the Heritage

Festival. However, it suggests that the role of the Festival is local/regional and that the tourism value is as a visit

enhancer rather than a trip initiator.

Voyageur Days

The Voyageur Days Festival displays a slightly different mix of “potential initiator” markets than the Heritage Festival

– CD 47: Renfrew County, Quebec, CD 56: Cochrane District, CD 6: Ottawa, CD 30: Waterloo Region, CD 57: Algoma

District and CD 52: Sudbury District.

In contrast, the Festival appears to be of limited interest to persons visiting from CD 54: Timiskaming District, CD: 21

Peel Region, United States, CD20: Toronto and CD 19: York Region.

Again, using our ballpark methodology, we estimate that the same percentage – 16% - or 1 in 6 visitors who reside

more than 75km from the Festival site initiate their visits for the primary purpose of attending the Festival.

Table 10 – Comparison of Voyageur Days Attendees to Average Nipissing District Visitor Composition

Rank CD Code CD NameVoyageur

Days Visitors(%)

NipissingDistrict

Visits (%)Factor

Potential InitiatorMarket

8 3547 Renfrew County 13.7 2.0 681 YesQuebec 6.0 1.7 353 Yes

5 3556 Cochrane District 9.2 3.3 273 Yes15 3506 Ottawa Division 9.6 4.8 199 Yes17 3530 Waterloo Regional Municipality 3.7 2.7 136 Yes10 3557 Algoma District 2.7 2.2 126 Yes6 3552 Sudbury District 1.9 1.5 121 Yes

24 3526 Niagara Regional Municipality 2.3 2.0 1132 3549 Parry Sound District 11.2 10.7 104

36 3539 Middlesex County 1.4 1.4 10314 3543 Simcoe County 5.0 5.1 9733 3525 Hamilton Division 1.9 2.0 944 3553 Greater Sudbury Division 12.7 14.8 863 3554 Timiskaming District 3.0 5.4 56

37 3521 Peel Regional Municipality 2.3 4.8 48United States 2.4 6.3 38

45 3520 Toronto Division 2.7 9.9 2735 3519 York Regional Municipality 1.4 7.0 21


Conclusion

The objective of this study is to evaluate the tourism potential of the Region’s Festivals. On the basis of the evaluation

of the Heritage Festival and the Voyageur Days Festivals, it appears that these Festivals act as enhancements to pre-

existing visits rather than initiators of new visits.

Using our estimation methodology, we will assume that 16% of the 36,000 annual recreational person-visits to

Nipissing District that include attendance at a festival are initiated with Festival attendance as the primary reason for

the visit. This amounts to roughly 5,400 annual incremental person-visits that can be attributed to the Region’s

festivals.

The evaluation also shows that marketing activities have the best potential to initiate new visits from areas that are

adjacent to and just north of the festival sites – possibly including the northwestern portion of the Province of Quebec.

However, the investment in marketing of the festivals with incremental tourism as the objective should be

approached, in our opinion, with caution. This project does not evaluate the potential community impacts such as

retained spending and community involvement.

As mentioned previously, we believe that the “brand building” potential of the Region’s festivals is of greater value

than the “initiated visits” component of the equation. Therefore, we would suggest that future investments in

marketing be evaluated based on a combination of the two criteria – “brand building” potential and the ability to

initiate new tourism visits.


A Note about the Quebec Market

The sample size for Quebec is too small to conduct meaningful household penetration by CD or CSD. However, for

both Festivals, visitors from Quebec accounted for more than 5% of attendees from outside of Nipissing District. This

is in contrast to the less than 2% of all visitors to the Region who originate from Quebec suggesting, at the very least,

that Quebec residents may show an above average interest in the Region’s festivals and may represent a potential

market. Of the 115 Quebec households captured in our sample, 64 originated from the rural FSAs “J0X” and “J0Z”,

suggesting that these rural FSAs could be the target of future potential marketing opportunities.


Vertical Markets

“Vertical market” festivals or events are those activities that attract a specific audience that shares a common activity

or interest. Examples of the Region’s vertical market events are the North Bay to Mattawa Canoe Race, The Lost in the

Rocks and Trees Bike Race, the VMUTS ATV Rallies and the Sturgeon Falls Step Dance Festival.

Our hypothesis, at the initiation of the Study, was that vertical market events are more effective than general interest

events at:

a. Acting as tourism initiators, and

b. Attracting tourists from the Central Ontario market that is the core of Blue Sky Regional tourism market.

We received data collected by the organizers of the Canoe Race, the ATV Rallies and the Step Dance Festival. However,

the data is a “mixed bag” of postal codes. The Canoe Race postal codes are from the forms completed by participants.

The ATV Rally postal codes are from a mailing list aggregated from more than one rally and the Step Dance data is

postal codes of RV owners who park in the Festival’s campground. In addition, the number of postal codes is small –

Canoe Race (66), ATV Rallies (508) and the Step Dance Festival (876).

The data from these lists suggests that a much higher percentage of attendees (> 30%) come from outside the region

when compared to attendees at general interest festivals. It could also be argued that a tourist attending an ATV Rally

or Canoe Race, for example, must have the Rally or Race as his/her primary reason for traveling, as the equipment and

clothing required is specialized and not easily available for rent locally. The Step and Fiddle “circuit” is well

established and there is a strong contingent of RVers that travel the circuit from event to event. Logically, it would

seem that the “vertical market” events are better tourism initiators and the data suggests that they are better at

attracting visitors from markets other than adjacent northern markets. However, we cannot test this belief based on

the available data.

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