Blowing the Cobwebs Off Your Mind Event - 22 January 2014
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Transcript of Blowing the Cobwebs Off Your Mind Event - 22 January 2014
Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting
1
Welcome to the
last
Blowing The Cobwebs Off Your Mind
with friends of Laurie Young
The Royal Society
22nd January 2014
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
The Cobwebs team
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Laurie Young
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3
Died suddenly and shockingly
18th September 2013
We are missing him, and
hope that this event captures
some of his voice and ideas.
http://laurieyoungmemorial.wordpress.com/
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Remembering Laurie
• Laurie Young prize,
• Summit,
• Essay competition,
• 1% club,
• Funding vehicle for consultancies and business schools
to conduct original research into Thought Leadership.
• Richard Chaplin is the architect, has more details, and
would be delighted to talk about it in the break ------
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Where this came from
• Laurie and Gill's book
• Interest in futures & investment
• “Cobwebs” meetings to develop the ideas
• The cards & advisory work
• Impetus to the Thought Leadership book
from last years’ Royal Society event
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
What we have covered
• Futures trends
• Dialogue about the forces
• Cognitive bias
• Three Horizons
• Scenarios
• VERGE
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In the future, we will all fly organic.
The three horizons framework for layering change life-
cycles
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Agenda for today
• Thought leadership
– Looking back, models of Thought Leadership
• Three Horizons
• Some Forces for Change
– Choosing a few
• Future models of Thought Leadership
– Feedback
• Just in case you are not convinced of the challenges
ahead
– Briefing on technology driven opportunities
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting
8 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Thought Leadership
Dr Chris Yapp
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Laurie’s Last Book
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
The Cynical View
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Why Now?
• Difficult economic times
• Shortening product lifecycles
• Commodification of services
• Short-termism
• Globalisation, BRICs, MINT…
• Complexity of change
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
The Challenge
• Individuals and organisations
• What is Thought Leadership?
• Where does it come from?
• How is it done?
• Who does it well?
• What is the value of Thought Leadership?
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
My Discussions with Laurie
• It’s often done badly in IT and professional
services
• It’s often scoped wrongly
• Communicating internally and externally needs
to be improved
• Once ideas are out there…
• It’s all about context
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
The Value of Thought Leadership
• To individuals
– identity
• To organisations
– attracting & keeping talent
• To stakeholders
– story builds the relationship
• To governments
– ability to embrace the future
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Over to You----
• At the table
• Share some examples of Thought
Leadership
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SAMI Consulting
16 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Three Horizons
Dr Wendy Schultz
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Three Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cycles B Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry
The Three Horizons Framework
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• Bill Sharpe, International Futures Forum:
– Technology roadmapping - inadequate
– UK Foresight: Intelligent Infrastructures
– Emerging practice
– Reflection
Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope
• Curry and Hodgson, cases and article
• Growing community of practice
Origins of the Three Horizons
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Three Horizons
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Horizon ONE
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• Today’s dominant pattern(s) –
accumulations of past decisions & designs
• H1 systems are fully integrated with
surrounding culture – ‘locked in’
• Well-established ways of dealing with
problems frame approaches to new
challenges
• Dominated by quantitative sense of time
as a limited resource
MANAGERIAL
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Horizon THREE
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• Imagined futures and emerging changes –
transformative shifts from the present
• Explores the ‘full range of possible social
settlements and systems that could be
brought into being’
• Surfaces and questions underlying cultural
assumptions
• Dominated by qualitative awareness of
time as a defining moment of decision
VISIONARY
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Horizon TWO
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• Looks both ways – past and future –
to respond to limitations of H1 and
opportunities of H3
• Creates a zone of innovation and turbulence
• Danger: “H1 capture” – too mired in the past
• Dominated by feelings of opportunity,
engagement and a sense of opportunity cost
– trade-offs that must be made
ENTREPRENEURIAL
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MANAGER VISIONARY ENTREPRENEUR
Eg,
MUSIC,
MOVIES,
CDs,
DVDs
Eg., MUSIC, MOVIES –
transformational disruptor
- iTunes
Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES
– paradigm buster -
Napster
Three Horizons: Mindsets
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons: Questions
• What are the current working assumptions and systems of production and marketing? What are you taking for granted when you make management decisions (horizon 1)?
• What changes are emerging as completely new paradigms and means to understand and undertake various human activities (horizon 3)? What are visionary leaders saying?
• Which of the immediate changes you see represent a transition or accommodation for evolving tensions as current assumptions and work patterns obsolesce, and transformative changes erupt into possibility (horizon 2)? What opportunities do you see? What are entrepreneurs building?
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons Insights
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“Instead of seeing a world of stability to which
change and uncertainty ‘happen,’ we instead
become aware that everything that seems
fixed and stable is just part of a slow process
of change, embedded in other processes that
extend out as far as we want to explore.”
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon One Questions
• Discuss Chris Yapp’s overview of thought leadership
models:
– What additional leadership models from the past would you add
to the list? What are traditional approaches to innovation?
– What current approaches to leadership and thought leadership
do most people take for granted?
– How do most businesspeople and managers assume innovation
will happen?
• Note each past & current model on a post-it, and add
them onto the Horizon One space on your table map.
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon Three Questions
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• Please review the 15 challenging changes we’ve
provided as a card deck at your table.
• Which of the changes significantly challenge traditional
and current models of thought leadership, either for the
good or ill? Place them on the Third Horizon.
• Are there challenging changes or visions that you would
add? Jot each addition down on a post it, and add those
to the Third Horizon as well.
• Look at your First Horizon thought leadership models.
• Which are the most challenged by change? Star those.
• Which changes challenge the most thought leadership models?
Star those.
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SAMI Consulting
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Emerging models?
Dr Chris Yapp
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Why Do We Need New Models?
• Deep uncertainties
• Influencing agendas
• Demographics – skills
– New disciplines: interdisciplinarity
• West to East
– Changing world order
• Environment
– Sustainability
• Technology
– Global networks
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Pro-Am
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Wiki
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Wisdom of Crowds
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Big Data
• Government Open Data
• Large Corporate Data sets
• Internet of Things
• BUT how to use to generate insight?
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Open Innovation
• Open vs Closed models
• Co-design, co-delivery
• Clusters, supply-chains and ecosystems
• “Open Source”
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Overcoming the hype
• "We can't solve problems
by using the same kind of
thinking we used when
we created them."
• "Any intelligent fool can
make things bigger, more
complex, and more
violent. It takes a touch of
genius -- and a lot of
courage -- to move in the
opposite direction."
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Potential Models
• Pro-Am:
– co-operation with known rules
• Wiki
– experts edit the rules
• Wisdom of Crowds
– diversity on complex problems
• Big data
– so what? How to make sense?
• Open Innovation
– eco-system of experts
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon Two Questions
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• Discuss Chris Yapp’s introduction of new thought
leadership models:
– Do these replace older models completely?
– Do any of the new models address or overcome the challenges
you’ve just identified as most significant?
– Can you look at the emerging changes and imagine any
additional, transformative, novel models of thought leadership?
• Identify to report back:
– The most significant, challenging change to thought leadership;
– The most profound new model of thought leadership emerging;
– The most surprising new need for thought leadership emerging.
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Your group’s summary
• Before reporting:
– Review the highlights of your discussion
– What one change presents the greatest
challenge?
– What was the most profound new model
for thought leadership that emerged?
– What was the most surprising new need
for thought leadership?
• Report back: three bullet points only!
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
In Closing
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• Laurie was Chairman of the Strategic Planning Society
– He suggested the formation of Special Interest Groups, SIGs
– We are planning to launch the Futures & Strategy SIG with a
series of events
– 30th April, 23rd July, 22nd October
• We are also planning Futures Bootcamps at Wolfson
College, Oxford
– Details from Wendy Schultz
• Watch for the announcements of the Laurie Young
Memorial Prize, the summit, the 1% Club, ----
• And perhaps we may all meet again next year at The
Royal Society
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Thank You
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