BlackRock - Not All Commodities Are Equal
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Transcript of BlackRock - Not All Commodities Are Equal
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY
Not all commodities are equal:Musing on commodity market opportunities
26th September 2011
Malcolm Smith, DirectorBlackRock Natural Resources, London
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HSBC Global Mining Index ($)S&P 500 ($)MSCI World ($)
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Familiar seasonal pattern so far year to date
Similar macro concerns relating to:
• Chinese monetary tightening
• US economic growth
• European sovereign debt issues
“Deja Vu” – have we been here before?
Performance of mining sector in 2010 versus 2011 year-to-date
Source: DataStream to 31st August 2011
Source: DataStream to 31st August 2011 HSBC Global Mining Index used as representative of mining sector
Performance of mining sector versus general equities year-to-date
HSBC Global Mining Index 2010
HSBC Global Mining Index ytd 2011
?
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1. Concerns over Chinese economy slowing
2. Japanese earthquake
3. European sovereign debt issues re-surface
4. Data suggesting slow-down in US economy
5. Fear of “default contagion” in Europe
US raise debt ceiling
S&P downgrade US debt
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IP, CPI and PPI Monthly Iron Ore Imports & Crude Steel Output
Quarterly GDP Growth & GS Forecast Monthly Electricity Generation
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Industrial Production (%) CPI (%) PPI (%)
China – hard or soft landing?
Source: GS & Partners Australia, July 2011
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TWElectricty Production (TW)6 per. Mov. Avg. (Electricty Production (TW))12 per. Mov. Avg. (Electricty Production (TW))
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Supply-side dynamics
Supply constrained by:
• Average mined grades falling
• Infrastructure challenges
• Discovery rates falling
• Shortage of skilled labour
• Long lead times on equipment
• Geopolitical challenges
• Production shortfalls
Challenges to forecast bulk commodity production:
Growth constrained by congestion on roads, rail and at ports
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Iron Ore
Metcoal
Copper
Under delivery of production forecasts
Source: Macquarie August 2011.
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Iron ore
• Iron ore markets changing significantly with move to quarterly pricing
• This appears to be a permanent change though the exact mechanism for pricing is still evolving
• Provides greater level of pricing transparency
• Directly references spot price – driven by high cost Chinese and Indian production
• Marginal costs of production for iron ore have increased by over $20 to $149/t
Source: CLSA data as at 26 August 2011 Source: Macquarie/The Steel Index as at end March 2011
Current Price
Iron ore pricing Supply curve to Chinese market for iron ore fines
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From Debt Mountains to Cash Piles
• Mining sector forecast to be in a net cash position by the end of 2011
• First time this has been the case in recent history
-150,000
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Source: Citigroup, March 2011
• Use of improved spending power – capex, M&A and dividends
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BGF World Mining Fund HSBC Global Mining Index MG Base Metals Index
BGF World Mining Fund Performance
• Launched in 1997
• AUM of approx $16.1 bn
• Open Ended SICAV
• AAA rated – OBSR
• AA rated – S&P Fund Research
• Elite rated- Morningstar
Source: Datastream. Net performance in US$ on a NAV pricing basis with income reinvested. YTD figure as at end August 2011
-59.0
-64.1
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41.8
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103.9
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59.6
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9.929.5-11.0HSBC Global Mining Index
10.429.2-12.2BGF World Mining Fund
20042010YTDUS$
Source: DataStream, data to 29 August 2011
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Investment Demand – Key Drivers
What will be the next reserve currency?Impact of quantitative easing – risk of inflationary scenario has increased
Low correlation to fixed income and equities
Currency Volatility / Dollar Weakness
Inflationary ConcernsPortfolio Diversifier
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ZKB Gold ETF-SWX ETFS (London) XETRA (DAX) Julius Baer (SWX) ETFS(NYSE)
CS-XMTCH(SIX) UBS-IS Gold ETF Sprott Physical Gold Source Gold Price (US$/oz)Source: UBS. Data as at 1 August 2011
Amount of gold backed by ETFs
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A real return from a ‘risk free’ asset
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Source: Deutschebank March 2011
Returns of gold and silver in a real interest rate environment
Year-on-year returns since 1970Gold a beneficiary of growing US debt
Source: Datastream 22nd August 2011
• Concern over the higher risk associated with a rising US debt burden• Gold has benefited as investors have sought out ‘risk free’ assets with a real return
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Gold Bullion
US Debt CeilingRaised US Debt ceiling Aug 2011
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Central bank gold holdings – Strategic shift in attitude
Source: Deutschebank, World Gold Council, December 2010 Source: World Gold Council, December 2010. *Estimate
Central Bank Gold Holdings (1958-2010) Change in official sector gold holdings 2000-2010
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Gold equities vs gold price
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Gold Price (RHS)
• Two periods in the last three years where gold equities have significantly underperformed the gold price
• Both relate to periods of significant macro uncertainty
• On previous occasion this was a temporary dislocation, with gold shares recovering lost ground as sentiment improved.
Performance of the Gold Price versus Gold shares post the Financial Crisis
Source: DataStream, 2nd September 2011
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BGF WG FT Gold Mines Index Gold Bullion
BGF World Gold Performance
• Launched in 1994
• AUM of U$ 9.3 bn
• Open Ended SICAV
• AAA rated – OBSR
• AAA rated – S&P Fund Research
• Elite rated- Morningstar
Source: Datastream. Net performance on a NAV pricing basis as at end August 2011
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-6.929.01.7FTSE Gold Mines Index
-6.235.73.1BGF World Gold Fund
20042010YTDUS$
Source: DataStream, data to 29 August 2011
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Oil supply growth has not kept pace with demand growth – spare capacity is set to fall
Source: Wood Mackenzie May 2011Source: Blackrock/IEA August 2011OMR/Estimates range of ultimate spare capacity using bank analysts
OPEC Effective Spare Capacity (% World Oil Demand)
Analyst Range of Forecastsat start of 2011
Global Demand/ Non-OPEC Supply Growth (mb/d)
Supply & Demand tightening, OPEC spare capacity peaked in 2010
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Non-OPEC’s marginal cost and the fiscal breakeven of OPEC Oil Supply
• ~ 70% of the conventional oil production needed by the end of the decade has yet to be developed or discovered
• Upstream development 1Q 2011 cost twice the level of 2003 and are rising
• Canadian oil sands forecasted to grow at 6.6% CAGR over next five years. Marginal costs supportive of sustained high oil prices
• In the last 10 years, more than half of all new oil and gas discoveries have been offshore
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Source: Wood Mackenzie. Oil projects with development plans expected to be approved over the near term. Project economics based on a fully-taxed stand-alone basis using the appropriate fiscal terms for each sector. Internal rate of return of 10% in nominal terms. Potential synergies that can be significant on a corporate basis are excluded. Conversely, the economics are not run on a full-cycle basis and prior signature bonus and exploration/appraisal costs are not included.
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Source: BP Statistical Review 2010
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Potential for long-term supply impact in Libya: lessons from history
Iranian Revolution
Start of Iran/Iraq war
Gulf War I
Gulf War II
Oil industry nationalised
Chavez presidency begins
Collapse of the Soviet Union
Iran
Russia
Iraq
Venezuela
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Natural Gas markets have decoupled from oil
Natural gas prices differ geographically US Electricity Generation Fuel Use (%)
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Coal
NuclearHydro
OilRenewables
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• Gas tends to be used for power and heat rather than as a transportation fuel
• Gas is more costly to transport than oil
• Gas pricing varies by geography
• Pricing in Europe and Asia includes a linkage to oil prices
• Emergence of shale gas has depressed prices in the US
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BGF World Energy 7yr performance MSCI World Energy (TR)
BGF World Energy: Performance
• Launched in 2001 as successor to Energy International
• Fund Managers: Robin Batchelor/ Poppy Allonby
• AUM of approx $ 5.3 bn
• Open-ended SICAV
• 50 – 80 holdings
• AA rated – S&P Fund Research
• AA rated – OBSR
• Superior rated - Morningstar
• Benchmark – MSCI World Energy Index (Total Return)
Source: Datastream. *Performance shown net to end August 2011 in US$ on a NAV price basis with income reinvested. Performance figures are calculated net of annual fees.
22.9
29.5
2003
-8.4
-4.8
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25.3
36.6
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26.2
49.5
2005
-39.4
-46.4
2008US$ (net of fees) YTD* 2010 2009 2007 2006
BGF World Energy Fund -7.6 16.8 36.3 40.2 8.1
MSCI World Energy Index (total return)
-3.3 9.5 22.9 27.5 15.8
Source: DataStream, data to 31st August 2011
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Passive Commodity Exposure with iShares
Physical Commodity stocks Futures-based
Broad• DJ-UBS Commodity Index• S&P GSCI Dynamic RollIndex
PreciousMetals
• Gold• Silver• Platinum• Palladium
CommodityProducers
• Agriculture• Gold• Oil & Gas
CommoditySectors
• Agriculture• Industrial Metals• Energy
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY
Not all commodities are equal:Musing on commodity market opportunities
26th September 2011
Malcolm Smith, DirectorBlackRock Natural Resources, London
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BGF World Mining and World Gold Funds
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This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of yields or returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Moreover, certain historical performance information of other investment vehicles or composite accounts managed by BlackRock, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries (together, “BlackRock”) has been included in this material and such performance information is presented by way of example only. No representation is made that the performance presented will be achieved by any BlackRock Funds, or that every assumption made in achieving, calculating or presenting either the forward-looking information or the historical performance information herein has been considered or stated in preparing this material. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the investment returns that are presented herein by way of example.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of July 2011 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Any investments named within this material may not necessarily be held in any accounts managed by BlackRock. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
In the UK issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited (authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). Registered office: 33 King William Street, London, EC4R 9AS. Registered in England No. 2020394. Tel: 020 7743 3000. For your protection, telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. For distribution in EMEA, Korea, and Taiwan for Professional Investors only (or “professional clients”, as such term may apply in relevant jurisdictions). In Japan, not for use with individual investors. In Canada, this material is intended for accredited investors only. This material is being distributed/issued in Australia and New Zealand by BlackRock Financial Management, Inc. ("BFM"), which is a United States domiciled entity and is exempted under Australian CO 03/1100 from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services License and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission under US laws which differ from Australian laws. In Australia this product is only offered to "wholesale" and "professional" investors within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act). In New Zealand, this presentation is offered to institutional and wholesale clients only. It does not constitute an offer of securities to the public in New Zealand for the purpose of New Zealand securities law. BFM believes that the information in this document is correct at the time of compilation, but no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BFM, its officers, employees or agents. Strategies or capabilities may include those of BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. (“BTC”), which is a U.S. national banking association operated as a limited purpose trust company. BTC believes that the information in this document is correct at the time of compilation, but no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BFM, its officers, employees or agents. This document contains general information only and is not intended to represent general or specific investment advice. The information does not take into account your financial circumstances. An assessment should be made as to whether the information is appropriate for you having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to fluctuate.
THIS MATERIAL IS HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL AND IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR DISTRIBUTED TO PERSONS OTHER THAN THE RECIPIENT.
©2010 BlackRock, Inc., All Rights Reserved
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BGF World Energy and New Energy Fund
The following notes should be read in conjunction with the attached document:1. Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered office: 33 King William Street,
London, EC4R 9AS. Tel: 020 7743 3000. Registered in England No. 2020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. Issued in Switzerland by the representative office, BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited (London), to Claridenstrasse 25, Postfach 2118 CH-8022 Zürich, from where the Company's Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Articles of Association, Annual Report and Interim Report are available free of charge. Paying Agent in Switzerland is JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, Columbus, Zurich Branch Switzerland, Dreikönigstrasse 21, CH-8002 Zurich.
2. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. All financial investments involve an element of risk. Therefore, the value of your investment and the income from it will vary and your initial investment amount cannot be guaranteed. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to go up and down. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
3. The fund invests a large portion of assets which are denominated in other currencies; hence changes in the relevant exchange rate will affect the value of the investment.4. The fund invests in a limited number of market sectors. Compared to investments which spread investment risk through investing in a variety of sectors, share price
movements may have a greater affect on the overall value of this fund.5. The fund typically invests in smaller company shares which can be more unpredictable and less liquid than those of larger company shares.6. The fund invests in economies and markets which may be less developed. Compared to more established economies, the value of investments may be subject to greater
volatility due to increased uncertainty as to how these markets operate.7. BlackRock Global Funds (BGF) is an open-ended investment company established in Luxembourg which is available for sale in certain jurisdictions only. BGF is not
available for sale in the U.S. or to U.S. persons. Product information concerning BGF should not be published in the U.S. It is recognised under Section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is the UK distributor of BGF. Most of the protections provided by the UK regulatory system, and the compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, will not be available. A limited range of BGF sub-funds have a distributor status A sterling share class that seeks to comply with UK Distributor Status requirements. Subscriptions in BGF are valid only if made on the basis of the current Prospectus, the most recent financial reports and the Simplified Prospectus which are available on our website. Prospectuses, Simplified Prospectuses and application forms may not be available to investors in certain jurisdictions where the Fund in question has not been authorised. Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy.
8. Unless otherwise specified, all information contained in this document is current as at the date on the front page of this presentation.9. No part of this material may be reproduced, stored in retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, recording or otherwise, without
the prior written consent of BlackRock.
THIS MATERIAL IS FOR DISTRIBUTION TO PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON BY ANY OTHER PERSONS.