Births and deaths in Kent - 2019

Kent Analytics, Kent County Council

Facts and figures about Kent

Statistical Bulletin December 2021

Births and deaths in Kent: 2020

Related documents

The Population and Census

webpage contains more

information which you may

find useful.

Population forecasts

presents current thinking of

future population levels.

2011 Census presents

information on the

characteristics of the

population

NOTE: Kent refers to the

Kent County Council area

which excludes Medway

Unitary Authority

Further Information

Kent Analytics

Kent County Council

Invicta House

Maidstone

Kent

ME14 1XQ

Email:

[email protected]

Tel: 03000 417444

This bulletin presents an analysis of

the number of live births and deaths

and birth and death rates in Kent and

Kent districts during the calendar year

2020. A time-series of change between

2002 and 2020 is also presented.

Summary.

• During the year 2020 there were 15,940 births and

17,233 deaths in Kent. This resulted in a net loss of

1,293 people due to natural change.

• Maidstone saw the largest number of live births in

2020 with a total of 1,815. However, Dartford had

the highest general fertility rate per 1,000 women

aged 15-44 years of 69.6.

• Thanet had the greatest number of deaths with a

total of 2,044, and the highest number of deaths per

1,000 population (Crude Death Rate) at 14.4.

• Dartford experienced the greatest positive natural

change in population (meaning there were more

births than deaths) with a net gain of 696 people.

• Canterbury, Dover, Folkestone & Hythe, Sevenoaks,

Swale, Thanet, and Tunbridge Wells have all seen a

negative natural change in 2020 (meaning there

were more deaths than births.

http://www.kent.gov.uk/research

https://www.kent.gov.uk/about-the-council/information-and-data/facts-and-figures-about-Kent/population-and-census

https://www.kent.gov.uk/about-the-council/information-and-data/facts-and-figures-about-Kent/population-and-census#tab-3

https://www.kent.gov.uk/about-the-council/information-and-data/facts-and-figures-about-Kent/population-and-census#tab-4

mailto:[email protected]



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Note regarding Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths

The data presented in this bulletin are for the calendar year 1st January to 31st

December 2020 therefore will include deaths from Coronavirus (COVID-19).

This bulletin only presents the counts of deaths and births that were registered

during 2020 and does not provide any analysis of cause of death. Further

information on mortality and COVID-19 is available from the Office for National

Statistics

Introduction

Every year the number of births and deaths that occur in England and Wales are collated

and presented by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The change in population

produced by these natural events is called “natural change” and relates to the resident

population.

These figures alone do not represent the total change in population as that also depends on

inward and outward migration as well as natural change. The ONS monitor both sets of

data and use them to calculate their annual mid-year population estimates.

Please note that the births and deaths data for the Mid-year population estimates are

counted from 1st July to 30th June. The figures presented here are for the calendar year (1st

January to 31st December) so there will be differences between the two.

Total number of births and deaths during 2020

In 2020 there were 15,940 registered births and 17,233 registered deaths in Kent. This

resulted in a net decrease in Kent’s resident population of -1,293 people from natural

change alone.

The population in five of the 12 Kent local authority districts all increased during 2020 due

to natural change. The seven remaining districts saw a loss in resident population due to

there being more registered deaths than births.

See Table 1 for details


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights#deaths

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights#deaths



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Table 1: Births, deaths, and natural change in Kent in 2020

Increase in population due to natural change tends to be lower in East Kent districts such

as Dover, Thanet, and Folkestone & Hythe. Despite very healthy birth rates in these

areas, the actual number of births tends to be lower in these districts than in other Kent

districts. Due to a higher proportion of elderly population, the number of deaths in these

districts tends to be higher than in other Kent districts. Therefore, the balance between

the two leads to smaller population increase and even a reduction in resident population

due to natural change.

Mid and West Kent districts tend to have a younger age profile and for this reason the

number of births in these districts, such as Ashford, Maidstone, Dartford, and Tunbridge

Wells, is typically much higher than the number of deaths leading to higher population

growth due to natural change.

Despite Canterbury having a large young population, the number of births in Canterbury

is lower than would be expected for the population profile of the area. This is because

Canterbury’s young population largely consists of students who are not likely to be

bearing any children. The number of deaths is still quite high in Canterbury because of

the older population profile of coastal resorts such as Herne Bay and Whitstable. The

number of births is therefore low in relation to the number of deaths, resulting in negative

population change in 2020.

Local Authority Births Deaths

Natural

Change

Kent 15,940 17,233 -1,293

Ashford 1,423 1,334 89

Canterbury 1,171 1,781 -610

Dartford 1,680 984 696

Dover 1,045 1,515 -470

Folkestone & Hythe 938 1,487 -549

Gravesham 1,283 1,114 169

Maidstone 1,815 1,709 106

Sevenoaks 1,181 1,222 -41

Swale 1,559 1,639 -80

Thanet 1,383 2,044 -661

Tonbridge & Malling 1,368 1,220 148

Tunbridge Wells 1,094 1,184 -90

Medway Unitary Authority 3,265 2,626 639

Kent & Medway 19,205 19,859 -654

Source: Birth and death summary tables:Office for National Statistics (ONS), ©

Data presented by Kent Analytics, Kent County Council




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Birth and death rates

We know that the numbers of births and deaths will be affected by the population profile

of an area which makes it difficult to compare with different areas. In addition, areas with

similar profiles will be difficult to compare due to the difference in the total overall

population. For comparison it is sometimes better to look at birth and death rates. Rates

put the number of births and deaths into context according to the population size and

profile of an area.

There are four methods of measuring the numbers of births and deaths rather than

looking at the total numbers.

For births there is the General Fertility Rate (GFR) and the Total Fertility Rate (TFR):

• The GFR denotes the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 years

in a specific area.

• The TFR represents the average number of live children that women in that area

would have if they experienced the age-specific fertility rates for the calendar year

in question throughout their childbearing lifespan. The national TFR rate for

England & Wales in 2020 is 1.58. Therefore, if an area has a higher TFR than

1.58, then there were more births than would be expected.

For deaths there is the Crude Death Rate (CDR) and the Age-Standardised Mortality

Rate (ASMR):

• The CDR is the number of observed deaths per 1,000 resident population in a

specific area.

• The ASMR are expressed as deaths per 100,000 standard population and are

used to allow comparison between populations which may contain different

proportions of people of different ages. The standard population are the 2013

European Standard Population (ESP).

The ESP was originally published in 1976 and was updated by Eurostat in 2013. The

1976 and 2013 ESPs differ in two ways. First, the 2013 ESP gives the populations in

older age groups greater weighting than the 1976 ESP to reflect an aging population.

Second, the age distribution of the 1976 ESP has an upper limit of 85 years and over,

while the 2013 ESP is further disaggregated to include age groups 85-89, 90-94 and

95+.

Further information is available in the Office for National Statistics User Guide to mortality

statistics.


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/methodologies/userguidetomortalitystatisticsjuly2017

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/methodologies/userguidetomortalitystatisticsjuly2017



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Table 2: Birth and Death rates 2020

The General Fertility rate or GFR is higher in Kent than in England & Wales as a whole. As

expected, Canterbury has the lowest GFR, where there were 33.8 births per 1,000

women aged 15 to 44 years. Dartford has the highest GFR for 2020 where there were

69.6 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 years. See Chart 1 and Map 1 for details.

Chart 1: General Fertility Rate 2020

BIRTHS DEATHS

Local Authority GFR TFR CDR ASMR

England & Wales 53.4 1.58 10.2 1048.3

South East Region 53.4 1.65 9.9 940.9

Kent 55.1 1.70 10.8 1028.3

Ashford 59.8 1.87 10.2 1024.6

Canterbury 33.8 1.17 10.7 972.4

Dartford 69.6 2.02 8.6 1128.8

Dover 53.8 1.65 12.8 1082.1

Folkestone & Hythe 52.2 1.61 13.1 1031.5

Gravesham 62.9 1.92 10.4 1131.1

Maidstone 57.0 1.75 9.9 986.1

Sevenoaks 57.0 1.80 10.1 870.1

Swale 56.6 1.76 10.9 1154.9

Thanet 58.4 1.84 14.4 1218.4

Tonbridge & Malling 56.3 1.76 8.9 933.5

Tunbridge Wells 52.9 1.71 10.0 878.7

Medway 58.6 1.74 9.4 1164.2

Source: Birth and death summary tables:Office for National Statistics (ONS), ©

Data presented by Kent Analytics, Kent County Council

69.662.9 59.8 58.6 58.4 57.0 57.0 56.6 56.3 55.1 53.8 53.4 53.4 52.9 52.2

33.8

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2020 GFR-General Fertility Rate: Live births per 1,000 women age 15-44

Source: Birth Summary Tables :Office for National Statistics (ONS), © Crown Copyright: Data presented by Kent Analytics, Kent County Council




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Map 1: General Fertility Rate 2020

The total fertility rate or TFR shows that women in Canterbury on average experience

1.17 live births compared to 1.58 in England & Wales. As explained earlier in this bulletin,

Canterbury has a very large student population that contributes largely to the population

aged 15 to 44. These students are not likely to be having children and therefore the

population is artificially high compared to the number of live births. See chart 2 and Map

2 for details

Chart 2: Total Fertility Rate 2020

2.02 1.92 1.87 1.84 1.80 1.76 1.76 1.75 1.74 1.71 1.70 1.65 1.65 1.61 1.581.17

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2020 TFR: Total Fertility Rate

Source: Birth Summary Tables : Office for National Statistics (ONS), © Crown Copyright: Data presented by Kent Analytics, Kent County Council

PFR or TFR: Total Period Fertility Rate is the average number of live children that a group of women would bear if they experienced the age-

specific fertility rates of the calendar year in question throughout their childbearing lifespan.




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Map 2: Total Fertility Rate 2020

Thanet has the highest crude death rate or CDR which reflects the higher number of

residents over pensionable age living in the area. There were 14.4 deaths per 1,000

resident population in Thanet during 2020.

The top four areas with high CDR are all coastal districts which traditionally have a higher

number of older population than the rest of Kent. The lowest CDR is seen in Dartford

where there is a younger population profile. See Chart 3 and Map 3 for details.

Chart 3: Crude Death Rate 2020

14.4 13.1 12.810.9 10.8 10.7 10.4 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.4 8.9 8.6

0

4

8

12

16

2020: CDR: Crude Death Rate: Deaths (All Ages) per 1,000 resident population.

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), © Crown Copyright: Data presented by Kent Analytics, Kent County Council




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Map 3: Crude Death Rate 2020

Kent has a lower age-standardised mortality rate or ASMR than England and Wales. However, five

of the local authority districts in Kent and Medway Unitary Authority have a higher ASMR than that

seen nationally. See chart 4 and Map 4 for details

Chart 4: Age-standardised mortality rate 2020

1218.4 1164.2 1154.9 1131.1 1128.8 1082.1 1048.3 1031.5 1028.3 1024.6 986.1 972.4 940.9 933.5 878.7 870.1

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

2020 ASMR: Age-standardised mortality rate (Persons per 100,000 population)

Source: Death Summary Tables :Office for National Statistics (ONS), © Crown Copyright: Data presented by Kent Analytics, Kent County Council

.




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Map 4: Age-standardised mortality rate 2020

Time series between 2013 and 2020

In 2013 there were 16,955 live births in Kent. Between 2014 and 2017 the number of live

births had begun to rise but had fallen each year since. The number of births during 2020 is

the lowest since 2006.

In contrast, the number of deaths in Kent between 2013 and 2020 have begun to rise.

2020 saw the highest number of deaths for seven years with 17,233.

As a result, the population growth due to “Natural change” has fallen to it’s lowest in seven

years

Charts 5 and 6 present the numbers of births, deaths and subsequent natural change in

Kent and England & Wales. The pattern of births, deaths and natural change in Kent and

England & Wales over the past seven years is similar.




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Chart 5: Births, deaths, and natural change: 2007 to 2020 - Kent

Chart 6: Births, deaths, and natural change: 2013 to 2020 – England & Wales

As mentioned earlier, rates put the number of births and deaths into context according to

the population size and profile of an area. Charts 7 and 8 show that despite annual

fluctuations in both rates in Kent, the death rate has risen whilst the birth rate has fallen over

the past seven years.

-5,000

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Births, deaths and natural change: 2013 to 2020 - Kent

Births Deaths Natural Change

Source Office for National Statistics (ONS) © Crown Copyright. Chart presented by Kent Analytics , Kent County Council

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Births, deaths and natural change: 2013 to 2020 - England & Wales






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Chart 7: Birth rates: 2013 to 2020 – Kent

Chart 8: Death rates: 2013 to 2020 – Kent

The pattern of births, deaths and natural change plus birth and death rates varies

considerably amongst Kent’s local authority districts and Medway Unitary authority as

presented on pages 11 to 23.

Further information on population change is presented in the “Migration in Kent” and

“What’s causing Kent’s population growth?” bulletins.

This bulletin will be next updated in 2022, when the data for the year 2021 will be published.

For further information on the Office for National Statistics please visit www.statistics.gov.uk

840

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Death Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Kent

CDR ASMR



http://www.kent.gov.uk/about-the-council/information-and-data/Facts-and-figures-about-Kent/population-and-census#tab-2

http://www.kent.gov.uk/about-the-council/information-and-data/Facts-and-figures-about-Kent/population-and-census#tab-2

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/



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Births, deaths and natural change: 2013 to 2020 - Ashford



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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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Birth Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Ashford

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Death Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Ashford

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Births, deaths and natural change: 2013 to 2020 - Canterbury



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Birth Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Canterbury

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Death Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Canterbury

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Births, deaths and natural change: 2013 to 2020 - Dartford



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Birth Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Dartford

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Death Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Dartford

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Births, deaths and natural change: 2013 to 2020 - Dover



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Birth Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Dover

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Death Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Folkestone & Hythe

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Births, deaths and natural change: 2013 to 2020 - Gravesham



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Birth Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Gravesham

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Death Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Gravesham

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Births, deaths and natural change: 2013 to 2020 - Maidstone



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ility

Ra

te

BA

ES

: T

FR

-T

ota

l Fe

rtili

y R

ate

Birth Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Maidstone

TFR GFR


820

840

860

880

900

920

940

960

980

1,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

8.20

8.40

8.60

8.80

9.00

9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

LIN

E: A

SM

R -

Ag

e-S

tan

da

rdis

ed

Mo

rtalit

y R

ate

BA

ES

: C

DR

-C

rud

e D

ea

th R

ate

Death Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Maidstone

CDR ASMR





18

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1,120

1,140

1,160

1,180

1,200

1,220

1,240

1,260

1,280

1,300

1,320

LIN

ES

: B

irth

s &

De

ath

s (p

ers

on

s)

BA

RS

: N

atu

ral C

han

ge (

pe

rso

ns)

Births, deaths and natural change: 2013 to 2020 - Sevenoaks



52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

LIN

E: G

FR

-G

ern

al F

ert

ility

Ra

te

BA

ES

: T

FR

-T

ota

l Fe

rtili

y R

ate

Birth Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Sevenoaks

TFR GFR


700

720

740

760

780

800

820

840

860

880

900

920

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

LIN

E: A

SM

R -

Ag

e-S

tan

da

rdis

ed

Mo

rtalit

y R

ate

BA

ES

: C

DR

-C

rud

e D

ea

th R

ate

Death Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Sevenoaks

CDR ASMR





19

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

LIN

ES

: B

irth

s &

De

ath

s (p

ers

on

s)

BA

RS

: N

atu

ral C

han

ge (

pe

rso

ns)

Births, deaths and natural change: 2013 to 2020 - Swale



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

LIN

E: G

FR

-G

ern

al F

ert

ility

Ra

te

BA

ES

: T

FR

-T

ota

l Fe

rtili

y R

ate

Birth Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Swale

TFR GFR


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

LIN

E: A

SM

R -

Ag

e-S

tan

da

rdis

ed

Mo

rtalit

y R

ate

BA

ES

: C

DR

-C

rud

e D

ea

th R

ate

Death Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Swale

CDR ASMR





20

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

LIN

ES

: B

irth

s &

De

ath

s (p

ers

on

s)

BA

RS

: N

atu

ral C

han

ge (

pe

rso

ns)

Births, deaths and natural change: 2013 to 2020 - Thanet



52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

2.15

2.20

LIN

E: G

FR

-G

ern

al F

ert

ility

Ra

te

BA

ES

: T

FR

-T

ota

l Fe

rtili

y R

ate

Birth Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Thanet

TFR GFR


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

LIN

E: A

SM

R -

Ag

e-S

tan

da

rdis

ed

Mo

rtalit

y R

ate

BA

ES

: C

DR

-C

rud

e D

ea

th R

ate

Death Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Thanet

CDR ASMR





21

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

LIN

ES

: B

irth

s &

De

ath

s (p

ers

on

s)

BA

RS

: N

atu

ral C

han

ge (

pe

rso

ns)

Births, deaths and natural change: 2013 to 2020 - Tonbridge & Malling



52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

LIN

E: G

FR

-G

ern

al F

ert

ility

Ra

te

BA

ES

: T

FR

-T

ota

l Fe

rtili

y R

ate

Birth Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Tonbridge & Malling

TFR GFR


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

7.20

7.40

7.60

7.80

8.00

8.20

8.40

8.60

8.80

9.00

9.20

LIN

E: A

SM

R -

Ag

e-S

tan

da

rdis

ed

Mo

rtalit

y R

ate

BA

ES

: C

DR

-C

rud

e D

ea

th R

ate

Death Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Tonbridge & Malling

CDR ASMR





22

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

LIN

ES

: B

irth

s &

De

ath

s (p

ers

on

s)

BA

RS

: N

atu

ral C

han

ge (

pe

rso

ns)

Births, deaths and natural change: 2013 to 2020 - Tunbridge Wells



48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

LIN

E: G

FR

-G

ern

al F

ert

ility

Ra

te

BA

ES

: T

FR

-T

ota

l Fe

rtili

y R

ate

Birth Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Tunbridge Wells

TFR GFR


760

780

800

820

840

860

880

900

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

LIN

E: A

SM

R -

Ag

e-S

tan

da

rdis

ed

Mo

rtalit

y R

ate

BA

ES

: C

DR

-C

rud

e D

ea

th R

ate

Death Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Tunbridge Wells

CDR ASMR





23

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300

3,400

3,500

3,600

3,700

LIN

ES

: B

irth

s &

De

ath

s (p

ers

on

s)

BA

RS

: N

atu

ral C

han

ge (

pe

rso

ns)

Births, deaths and natural change: 2013 to 2020 - Medway Unitary

AuthorityBirths Deaths Natural Change


54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

LIN

E: G

FR

-G

ern

al F

ert

ility

Ra

te

BA

ES

: T

FR

-T

ota

l Fe

rtili

y R

ate

Birth Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Medway Unitary Authority

TFR GFR


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

LIN

E: A

SM

R -

Ag

e-S

tan

da

rdis

ed

Mo

rtalit

y R

ate

BA

ES

: C

DR

-C

rud

e D

ea

th R

ate

Death Rates: 2013 to 2020 - Medway Unitary Authority

CDR ASMR



Kent Analytics, Kent County Council [email protected]

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Births and deaths in Kent - 2019

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