BIOL 300: Biostatistics
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BIOL 300: Biostatistics
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Statistical quotations
• There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.– Benjamin Disraeli / Mark Twain
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Statistical quotations
• There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.– Benjamin Disraeli / Mark Twain
• It is easy to lie with statistics, but easier to lie without them.– Frederick Mosteller
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Professor:Dr. Luke Harmon
Department of Zoology Office: 1370 Biosciences
Office Hours: 2 - 4 pm Mondays
(or after class)e-mail:
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Course website
http://www.zoology.ubc.ca/~bio300/• Lecture notes• Textbook and Lab Manual• Assignments and answers• Contact information
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Textbook
• Whitlock and Schluter, The analysis of biological data
• Available in two installments at CopieSmart, UBC Village
• Also available online
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JMP• Optional statistical software
• Used in labs• Available in bookstore
• 60-day trial version on web:
• www.jmp.com
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Evaluation
Final 50% Mid-term 30% Assignments (homework) 10% Lab exam (final week of term) 10%
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Examinations
• Midterm: Thursday October 19 in class
• Final exam: TBA
• Old exams will be posted on the website
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Assignments
• Available on course web-page, announced in class
• Due on Fridays at noon, at your TA’s office
(eight days after they are assigned)
• Bonus points for in-class quizzes and activities
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Lab
• Begins third week of term (September 18- 22)
• Biol. Sci. room 2434• Lab exam during final week of classes
• Book available at Copiesmart in the village and online
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Class Forum
• There will be a forum for discussion on the web
• Discussion of lectures, labs, and homework
• More details available next week
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STATISTICS PAIRINGS
• Credit given for only one of BIOL 300, FRST 231, STAT 200, PSYC 218 or 366.
• These are paired with BIOL 300, but do not count as requirements for Biology majors and pre-reqs
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Introduction to statistics
Statistics - technology used to describe and measure aspects of nature from samples
Statistics lets us quantify the uncertainty of these measures
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http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/01/5/image_pop/l_015_04.html
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http://www.rit.edu/~rhrsbi/GalapagosPages/DarwinFinch.html
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The history of statistics has its roots in biology
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Sir Francis Galton
Inventor of fingerprints, study of heredity of quantitative traits
Regression & correlation
Also: efficacy of prayer, attractiveness as function of
distance from London
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Karl Pearson
Polymath-
Studied genetics
Correlation coefficient2 testStandard deviation
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Sir Ronald Fisher
The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection
Founder of population genetics
Analysis of variance likelihood P-valuerandomized experiments multiple regressionetc., etc., etc.
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Goals of statistics
• Estimation – Infer an unknown quantity of a population using sample data
• Hypothesis testing– Differences among groups– Relationships among variables
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Statistics is also about good scientific
practice
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Introductory Puzzle
• How to protect bombers flying over enemy territory?
• British Air Ministry - WWII• Looked at distribution of bullet holes in airplanes returning from bombing runs
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http://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.html
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Results
• Where should more armor be added to the airplanes?
• Explain your conclusion
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Variable
• A variable is a characteristic measured on individuals drawn from a population under study.
• Data are measurements of one or more variables made on a collection of individuals.
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Explanatory and response variables
We try to predict or explain a response variable from an explanatory variable.
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Mortality on the Titanic, as predicted
by sex
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Populations and samples
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Populations <-> Parameters;
Samples <-> Estimates
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Nomenclature
Population
Parameters
Sample
Statistics
Mean Variance s2
Standard Deviatio
n
s€
x
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Precise Imprecise
Biased
Unbiased
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Properties of a good sample
• Independent selection of individuals
• Random selection of individuals
• Sufficiently large
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In a random sample, each member of a population has an
equal and independent chance of being
selected.
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Bias is a systematic discrepancy between
estimates and the true population
characteristic.
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A sample of convenience is a collection of
individuals that happen to be available
at the time.
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Sampling error
• The difference between the estimate and average value of the estimate
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Population parameters are constants whereas estimates are random variables, changing
from one random sample to the next from the
same population.
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Larger samples on average will have
smaller sampling error
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Read: Chapters 1 & 2