Student Author Name: Team Members Names:

Student Author ID #: Team Members ID #s:

Lab Assignment #: 2 Team Name: Married 2 The Game

Lab Assignment Title: Natural Selection Date: 150212

Background:§ Organisms with traits more suited to their environments are more likely to survive than those with different features.§ Knowing that certain traits suit certain environments, the color of the paper dot will affect its survival depending on the environment.§ Different environments include different predators that will apply new traits like color or size.§ Reece, J., Wasserman, S., Urry, L., Minorsky, P., Cain, M., & Jackson, R. (2014). The Evolutionary History of Biological Diversity. In Campbell Biology (10th ed., pp. 467-478). Boston: Pearson. Purpose / Objective(s):§ Test the natural selection theory using paper dots in various environments with several adapting predators; analyze the data gathered from the different environments; and then graph and discuss the results of the collected data.§ Observe the survival rate of paper dots in the green environment. The color of the surroundings in the green environment helped these colored dots live and adapt to their environment. Green dots were hard to see in the first environment because the eye notices dots that stuck out and caught the eye of the predator such as Light Blue, Lime Green, and Green. Green was the best match to its environment but was picked off due to our “Scatter Method” (See Figure #1) wherein the dots were dropped randomly across the environment instead of strategic placing.§ Observe the survival rate of paper dots in Environment 2. It was not in the favor of Tiffany Blue which was severely impacted and diminished to nearly half its population. The only dots that appeared successful in this environment was Green, White, Red, and Light Blue. These species seemed to adapt well to their surrounding and became less visible to the predators’ eye which allowed them to live and produce more offspring than other species.

Hypothesis (ese):

§ Purple dots in Environment 2 will have a higher chance of survival.§ The dots most similar in color to their environments will be more camouflaged from predators, therefore more will survive than other colored dots.

Specimen(s):§ The key components for this experiment will be different colored dots to represent different specimens within a population, different patterned maps to simulate different environments, and student predators with different capabilities to observe natural selection. § We observed several rounds of predation effects on several different specimens within a population in two different environments, while measuring specimen survival rate.

Materials:§ Various environment maps, an assortment of colored paper dots, jars, plastic cups, red tape, stopwatch.§ Professor timed predators at assigned environments.§ Students counted out 200 colored paper dots as their species, then placed 50 in environment.§ Students entered their data via Microsoft Excel template. Procedures: § 40 dots of different colors per person.§ 20 dots first round.§ Between each generation the survivors are paired up and produce 2 offspring to be included into the population count of the next generation. § First background is a green background (See Figure #1)§ First round: One predator with one claw§ Second round: One predator with two claws§ Switch background (See Figure #2)§ Third round: Two predators, two claws each§ Fourth round: Two predators, two claws, and flashing lights§ Fifth round: Natural disaster

Results: § Overall, all species saw a significant forecasted increase in population except for Tiffany Blue, which is calculated to stay relatively stagnant. (See Table 1: Population Forecast to Generation 11)§ The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was observed to decrease in certain generation comparisons. All species were forecasted to increase their CAGR ranging from 4-10% when comparing Gen 12 and Gen 1. (See Table 2: Experiment and Forecasted Compound Annual Growth Rate vs. Generation Comparisons)

§ Comparing the percent population change between generations show similar results to CAGR. All species saw increases in percent population change, which ranged from 55-229%. (See Table 3: Percent Population Change vs. Generation Sets using Experiment and Forecasted Populations)§ Most deaths of Light Blue occurred in the first environment.§ Least deaths of Red occurred in the first environment. § Tiffany Blue, very similar to Light Blue in appearance, suffered 2.6 times as many total deaths compared to Light Blue (42 vs. 16) in Environment 2. (See Table 5: Number of Deaths per Generation vs. Environment Type)§ Purple experienced a similar distribution of deaths across environments: 55% in the original and 45% in Environment 2. (See Table 6: Number of Deaths vs. Environments) § Forecasting the number of deaths to Generation 12 shows Tiffany Blue with the highest number of deaths. Species with the lowest number of deaths were the Light Blue and Yellow. (See Table 7: Number of Deaths vs. Generations)§ The graphs of population vs. generations were used to determine the forecasted growth using a logarithmic trend line. (See Table 8: Individual Forecasts with logarithmic equations)§ Diagram 1 and 2 depict the most effective way of creating color contrast using a color wheel.§ The summary table below shows the carrying capacity being reached by several species by the third generation. (See Summary Table: Population vs. Generations and Environments)§ Light Blue was the most adapted to survive in Environment 2.

Summary Table: Population vs. Generations and Environments

Analysis / Discussion:§ The outcome of purple appeared to contradict our first hypothesis by experiencing a similar number of deaths between both environments. However, the light blue species was observed to be highly suited for Environment 2.§ Environment 1 was predominantly green, providing an excellent contrast for Blue and Purple, both experiencing the highest numbers of deaths before environmental change. § Yellow and Red resulted in the fewest deaths in Environment 1, supporting our second hypothesis.

§ In the second environment, Tiffany Blue resulted in the highest number of deaths closely followed by Lime Green. Both groups had nearly the same percentage of predator caused deaths (PCD) (67% vs 69%). The Light Blue species suffered 88% PCD, greater than any other group. This data contradicts our second hypothesis due to the similar losses from predators despite the camouflage profile favoring the Blue groups. § Due to the contradicting results from the experiment there may be other factors besides color which affect the survival of colored dots.§ For the population and death forecasts to be accurate the five Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium requirements must be met. This is extremely unlikely due to the number of changes in environment, and predatory and natural selection pressures observed in each of the first six generations. The probability for no change to occur in the next six generations is extremely unlikely and renders our forecast unreliable. Conclusions / Further Considerations:§ Answer the question, “so what, now, what?”

After completing and analyzing the data, evidence would suggest that in our given environment, “placement” of the prey had a greater impact on the likelihood of survival as opposed to the “color” of the specimen. While intuitively it may have seemed as if specimen “color” would help to better camouflage the prey from the predator, it should be noted that staying out of reach of the predator is a far better option. While our hypothesis was not incorrect, as “color” did play a partial role in the success of the prey, the hypothesis failed to take into account that “shorter” predators could not reach the prey furthest away. Staying out of reach is after all one of the mechanisms of defense that many animals in the wild use to their advantage. Consider, for example, tree-dwelling monkeys, various birds, and sloths; while camouflage may reduce the possibility of getting eaten, staying out of reach reduces that chance to zero. This evidence would then suggest that there is no one factor that affects whether or not a species will survive.

Recall the natural selection experiment conducted by Bernard Kettlewell and his peppered moths. Kettlewell noted that white peppered moths had a greater likelihood of survival compared to black peppered moths when placed against the white bark of birch untarnished by industrial soot. However, in areas with heavy charcoal production, the bark of the birch were often covered in black soot, and in these areas Kettlewell noted that the black moths were more likely to survive. While the experiment sounds intuitive, reevaluation of Kettlewell’s experiment revealed a flaw - a flaw that even in our own experiment we had not considered. This flaw was that of bias of the experimenter and the subjects and in an attempt to recreate it, the data was not reproducible. It is likely that if we performed this experiment a second time, the results would vary greatly. § What does this understanding provide to us that allows us to continue / expand our thinking?

Understanding that placement of the prey has a lot to do with its survival, this can predict the outcome of many species in our environment. Although the human factor remains uncertain

and erratic, the initial factors that are predictable like the hunting patterns of the predator will help the prey survive longer. Soon the prey will pick up on the habits of the predator and then he would have to think of new methods to catch his prey.§ What further questions do you have with this level understanding?

Upon further analysis of the results of this experiment, would intuition of color choice be best suited for camouflage or would a neutral color hide well amongst the environment? In addition, does the type of predator hunting the prey affect the lifespan of the species differently?§ What other information / research / experiment does this data suggest that we do?

It may be helpful in future experiments to log data regarding the placement of specific colors and predator(s) positioning compared to the mat. In our experiment the predator(s) stood at the same position relative to the orientation of the mat, this may have been advantageous to dots which were further away from the predators.

Comparing only the effects of colors by placing them on the same spots of the mat may help further understand the role that positioning plays in survival.

ATTACHMENTSExperimental Design – Subjects, Specimens, Materials and Methods Details

Figure # 1:Environment 1, Green

Figure # 2:Environment 2, Halloween

Using the ‘Sprinkle Method’ to Disperse our Colored Dots

Detailed / Formal / Conclusive Results, Tables, Charts, Comparative Photos and Illustrations

Table 1: Population Forecast to Generation 12

Table 2: Experiment and Forecasted Compound Annual Growth Rate vs. Generation Comparisons

Table 3:Percent Population Change vs. Generation using Experiment and Forecasted Populations

Table 4:Species Populations vs. Generations in Two Different Environments

Table 5: Number of Deaths per Generation vs. Environment Type

Table 6:Number of Deaths vs. Environments using Experiment Data

Table 7:Number of Deaths Forecast to Generation 11

Table 8: IndividualForecasts with logarithmic equations

Diagram 1:Color WheelContrast

Diagram 2: Color Contrast Example

In-Process Drawings / Diagrams / Illustrations / Photos / Planning / Intermediate Steps:

Figure # 3: Assortment of Colored Paper Dots Representing Different Species Beginning Experiment

In-Process Notes / Observations / Planning:

Figure # 4: Notes of Predator Simulations and Results

Figure # 5: General Notes of Overview of Natural Selection Lab

Raw Data / Original Measurements:

Raw Data #1

Raw Data #2

Raw Data #3

Raw Data #4

Raw Data #5

References / Literature Cited:1. Arditi, A. (n.d.). Effective color contrast: Designing for people with partial sight and

color deficiencies. Retrieved from http://www.lighthouse.org/accessibility/design/accessible-print-design/effective-color-contrast.

❏ Accessed on Feb. 10th, 2015 to determine effective color contrasting patterns. (Diagrams 1: Color Wheel Contrast and Diagram 2:Color Contrast Example)