Big Lies and Small Truths About Big Data

Big Lies and Small Truths

Tales from an Accidental Big Data Scientist

Share of mind leads share of market

What Marketing Wants


What IT Perceives


What Consumers Fear

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Big Data Process In a Nutshell

COLLECT REPORTANALYZE TAKE

ACTION


Where is the Data From?

• Owned

• Purchased

• Created


What Is The Data About? People


What is the Data About? Things


What Is The Data About? Things About People


Big Lie #1

“It will take millions of dollars and a huge

Hadoop cluster to prove the utility of

BIG DATA”


AvgAI

SIP

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Start Small and Scale As Needed…


Big Lie #2

“Once we have the data actionable

insights will start raining from the sky”


Good Analysis is Tough and typically under resourced


Need Technologist and Subject Matter Experts

Good Analysis is Tough and typically under resourced


Big Lie #3

“Petabytes of data Plus statistical significance values of 0.00001 equals respect in the board room”

Or

“If you process it, they will come”


Small Truth #3

• Report in the language of the decision maker• Empathy in report is critical to enable action


Big Lie #4

“If we measure everything we will be measuring the right

things”


“Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market … the iPhone won’t make a long term mark on the industry”Matthew Lynn - Bloomberg

“The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure or challenges of the mobile industry”Charles Golvin – Forrester Research

“The iPhone is a niche product”Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo – Nokia CEO in April 2008


“If you can not measure it, you can not improve it.”Lord Kelvin


Others predict based on what consumers bought, Argus Insights predicts based on what consumers love

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Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2

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Argus Insights Beat Wall Street Estimates for Q2 2013 iPhone Sales

Apple iPhone 4 Apple iPhone 4S Apple iPhone 5 Apple iPhone 3GS

Apple iPhone 3G Apple iPhone Quarterly iPhone Sales

Copyright© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc.

Consensus

Morgan Stanley

Argus InsightsEstimate Based on Apple’s Actual Q2

iPhone Unit Volume


Argus Insights Proprietary Metrics Are Proven Predictors of Consumer Demand

23-Feb-13 23-Mar-13 23-Apr-13 23-May-13 23-Jun-13 23-Jul-13 23-Aug-13 23-Sep-13 23-Oct-13 23-Nov-13

Mapping Handset Consumer Buzz Metrics to Actual Handset Sales

Actual Sales/Returns for Specific Handset

Predicted Sales Using Argus Metrics from 8 weeks prior

Eight Weeks PredictingAdjusted R2 = 87.8%p-value = 4.547E-22

Han

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Using only our consumer metrics and retail pricing, Argus Insights was able to predict handset sales volume eight weeks into the future for a major smartphone brand

What Are They Really Talking About?


Lots of chatter but few conversations

Nothing says “I love you” like a man’s armpit

wearing Old Spice inside of a tuxedo on a

battleship that has a mariachi band to serenade

you.

“Dear axe body spray, please out a suggested

serving size on your bottle. Sincerely, choking girls

everywhere.”


Behavior over Buzz

• Brand Story

– Traditional media

– Digital media

– Digital Advocacy

• Product Reality

– Mostly shared in

consumer reviews

– Proven leading

indicator of sales

performanc


When Consumers engage reveals how to

engage…

• Different segments of consumers engage at different times of the day

• Each segment has unique influences that shape advocacy

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Lipstick Mentions By Valid Consumers (Normalized to EST)

What to

What to Which What I saw!


Behaviors Swamp Brands, Consumers Drive

Content

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Comparing Lipstick Mention vs. Brand Social Mentions

General Lipstick

Mentions Occur 100

times more than

any major brand


VS


Humankind has been fascinated for centuries!


Tracking Target Segments since Oct 2012 in Twitter

Walking Dead Premiere

Vampire Diaries Premiere

Zombie Chatter is steadily 2X that of Vampire ChatterZombies are gender balanced. Twice as many women mention vampires


Somewhere in suburban Georgia


Introducing the Zompire Index

• Needed a way to track the both targets

• Normalized for state populations to understand relative strength of segment

• Since one target is larger than the other needed a way to balance


Visualizing the Balance of Power across Target Segments

Deeper Dive into IoT


Internet of Things continues to Drive Significant Social Buzz

IBM Pledges $3 billion to IoT Center


IoT Attracts More Attention than Home Automation


Wearables, driven only partially by Apple Watch Attract more Attention than IoT


Even within IoT, Wearables drives more attention than Big Data


Iot Means Many Things But Mainly Internet Of Things


Industrial Internet is Getting the Most Attention Within IoT


Security Concerns Trump Privacy Most Always


Within IoT Manufacturing and Logistics Buzz is Limited

Significant discussion on privacy and security related to

manufacturing at US government level


Bluetooth and WiFi dominate IoT discussions

ZigBee and Zwave fail to grab any attention


Mind the Gap between Devices and Apps


Smart Home App Experience As As Varied As The Brands That Make Them


MSO Are Slowly Losing Ground With Consumers Based On App Experience

Size of bubble represents number of consumer App

Reviews (with text) per day

Delight Scale based on Consumer Star Ratings, most accurate public

metric of success

Data gather regularly from Apple, Google, Amazon and Windows App Stores

Slow decay over time is normal for brands that have not refreshed their user experience


Though Falling, MSO’s Are Outperforming Almost Everyone Else, Even Nest!

MSO’s Dominate Category in Early 2015Vivint moves from 3rd to 1st place in hearts of consumers.

Alarm.com consistently delivers on promised experience

ADT offers a disappointing Smart Home Experience


MSO’s Beat Out AT&T Across Many Aspects of the App Experience

MSO’s offer a more usable and

stable app experience

compared to AT&T

Red Illustrates % Of Reviews With Negative Views On Topic, Green Is Positive And Gray Is Neutral

AT&T Consumers suffer through

poorly crafted and sluggish

experience

Please contact us if you’d like to know more!

http://www.argusinsights.com Twitter: @argusinsights1-877-992-7487 [email protected]

http://www.argusinsights.com

Big Lies and Small Truths About Big Data

Technology

Transcript of Big Lies and Small Truths About Big Data