BIG Call - May 2012
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Transcript of BIG Call - May 2012
400 W. Wilson Bridge Road, Suite 200, Worthington, OH, 43085 614-846-0146 [email protected]
PAM E L A G O O D F E L L O W
C O N S U M E R I N S I G H T S D I R E C T O R , B I G I N S I G H T ™
D I AN N E K R E M E R
S E N I O R AN ALY S T, B I G I N S I G H T ™
The BIG Call
May 2012
© 2012, Prosper®
May 2012 Consumer Survey
Disclaimer: BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp. Services are delivered by Prosper and/or a Prosper affiliated company (“Prosper”).
Prosper makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed in
producing the statistics; or the data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.
This report is derived from the following studies:
• BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, May 2012 (N = 8789, respondents surveyed 5/2 – 5/8/12)
• BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey Trends, May 2007 – May 2012
May 2012 Results • Consumer Confidence
• Practical Purchasing
• Financial Forecast
Personal Financial Situation
• Women’s Clothing
Department Store Domination?
• 90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase
Plans
Hispanic InsightCenter™
• Key Insights on Hispanic
Consumers for May 2012
© 2012, Prosper®
Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong Economy Adults 18+
Consumer Confidence
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAY 11-12
Highlights:
• The bloom is off the rose for
consumer confidence in May
Drops two points from April
First downward movement for
confidence since Oct-11
• Remains elevated from May-11
• In-line with May-10 and
recession-era May-09
27.9%
20.6%
34.7%
32.4%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
© 2012, Prosper®
Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong Economy Adults 18+
Consumer Confidence
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAY 07-12
27.9%
20.6%
34.7%
32.4%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
44
.7%
19
.5%
31
.2%
31
.5%
27
.9%
34
.7%
32
.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Apr-12 May-12
25%+
decline
from
May-07
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAY 11-12
Practical Purchasing
In the last 6 months, have you made any of the following changes? Adults 18+
Highlights:
• Confidence declined, but
practicality didn’t increase in
kind
Nearly half pragmatic in
spending (46.6%)
Remains elevated from
May-11, May-10
• 55.0% are focused on
necessities
On par with May-11, but
inflated compared to
May-10 (51.5%)
40%
42%
44%
46%
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
I have become more practical and realistic in my purchases
I focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAY 11-12
Financial Forecast
Which of the following financial steps are you planning to take in the next 3 months? Adults 18+
Highlights:
• Decreasing overall spending
lowered from the extreme we
saw in April
Still the highest May
reading since May-04
• Nearly as many plan to pay
down debt, increasing from
last year
• Increasing savings slips from
April, but up from May-11
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Pay down debt
Increase savings
Pay with cash more often
Decrease overall spending
May-11 Apr-12 May-12
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAY 07-12
Personal Financial Situation
Regarding your personal financial situation, compared to this time last year, are you... Adults 18+
Highlights:
• One-third (32.3%) feels “worse
off” about personal financial
situation compared to one year
ago
20% decline from those
who felt this way in May-11
33% decrease from May-09
• Largest proportion (49.4%)
feels like they are in the
“same” boat
• Minority (18.3%) is “better off,”
increasing 20% from May-11
(15.2%)
18.3%
49.4% 48.5%
32.3%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12
Better off Same Worse off
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAY 03-12
Women’s Clothing
Store Shopped Most Often for Women’s Clothing – Top 2 [write-in] Adults 18+
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%Walmart
Kohl's
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 11-12
Department Store Domination?
Consumer Equity Index™ (CEI) for Women’s Clothing Females
Macy's
Kohl's
Ross Target
Marshalls
TJ Maxx
Old Navy Kmart
JC Penney Walmart
80
100
120
140
= 100+ = <100 April 2011 v. April 2012
Details:
• CEI is available exclusively in
our monthly Retail Ratings
Reports.
• Shows year-over-year growth
[or decline] of Consumer
Preference Share
• Key:
CEI > 100 = GROWTH
CEI < 100 = DECLINE
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, APR 11-12
Department Store Domination?
Consumer Equity Index™ (CEI) for Women’s Clothing Females
Macy's
Kohl's
Ross Target
Marshalls
TJ Maxx
Old Navy Kmart
JC Penney Walmart
80
100
120
140
= 100+ = <100 April 2011 v. April 2012
43% growth
14% growth
Highlights:
• Walmart is losing share in a
key Women’s Clothing Shopper
segment: Women
Meanwhile, Kohl’s and
Macy’s are growing
• Not only is Kohl’s contesting
Walmart’s lead, but Macy’s
may enter the mix
Among shoppers overall,
Macy’s share increased
60%+ from Jan-12 to Apr-12
5% decline
NEW Blog
FYU: Department Store
Domination? CLICK to Read
© 2012, Prosper®
Category: Apr-12 May-11 May-10 Category: Apr-12 May-11 May-10
Children’s up up up Toys/Games up up up
Women’s Dress up up up CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books up up up
Women’s Casual up up up Electronics up up up
Men’s Dress up up up Groceries up up up
Men’s Casual flat up up Home Improvement up up up
Shoes up up up Lawn & Garden up up up
HBC up up up Home Furniture up up up
Dining Out up up up Home Décor up up up
Sporting Goods up up up Linens/Bedding/Draperies up up up
Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook (May-12 compared to Apr-12, May-11, and May-10)
Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Apr-12) or years (May-11, May-10). Diffusion Index = %
Spending More - % Spending Less.
BIG Forward Look: 90 Day Spending
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAY 10-12
Over the next 90 days (May, June and July), do you plan on spending more, the same or less
on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year? Adults 18+
© 2012, Prosper®
Category: Apr-12 May-11 May-10 Category: Apr-12 May-11 May-10
Children’s up up up Toys/Games up up up
Women’s Dress up up up CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books up up up
Women’s Casual up up up Electronics up up up
Men’s Dress up up up Groceries up up up
Men’s Casual flat up up Home Improvement up up up
Shoes up up up Lawn & Garden up up up
HBC up up up Home Furniture up up up
Dining Out up up up Home Décor up up up
Sporting Goods up up up Linens/Bedding/Draperies up up up
Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook (May-12 compared to Apr-12, May-11, and May-10)
Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Apr-12) or years (May-11, May-10). Diffusion Index = %
Spending More - % Spending Less.
BIG Forward Look: 90 Day Spending
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAY 10-12
Over the next 90 days (May, June and July), do you plan on spending more, the same or less
on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year? Adults 18+
All categories
remain
DOWN
from
pre-downturn
May 2007
© 2012, Prosper®
Sp
ec
ial
Ins
igh
t:
His
pan
ic C
on
su
mers
Key Insights for May 2012:
1. Higher Confidence; Lower Expectations
2. More Positive Personal Financial Situation
3. Practical, But Willing to Spend
4. Word of Mouth is Key
Visit http://www.hispanicinsightcenter.com/hicinfo/
Free App for Android
& Apple® iPad
© 2012, Prosper®
Hispanic Consumer Confidence
Confidence in Chances for a Strong Economy Confident or Very Confident
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Hispanics 18+
Adults 18+
Highlights:
• Though declining in May, Hispanic Consumer confidence remains higher than recession-era
May 2009 levels and well above that of consumers in general.
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAY 09-12
© 2012, Prosper®
Higher Confidence; Lower Expectations
Confidence in Chances for a Strong Economy
Highlights:
• Hispanics have more extreme economic confidence despite higher unemployment and a
more pessimistic employment outlook.
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
No Confidence
Little Confidence
Confident
Very Confident
Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Expecting More Layoffs Than
At Present In the Next 6
Months:
Hispanic: 28.8%
Non-Hispanic: 22.6%
Adults 18+: 23.3%
Civilian Unemployment Rate:
Hispanics: 10.3%
Overall: 8.1%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of
Labor Statistics
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAY-12
© 2012, Prosper®
More Positive Personal Financial Situation
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Hispanics Non-Hispanic Adults 18+
Better Off Same Worse Off
Regarding your personal financial situation,
compared to this time last year, are you...
Highlights:
• A greater portion of Hispanic
Consumers than Non-Hispanics feel
better off about their personal
finances
• Hispanics are more likely to
increase their savings over the next
year
% Planning to Save More This Year
Than Last Year:
Hispanic: 40.2%
Non-Hispanic: 28.9%
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAY 12
© 2012, Prosper®
Hispanic Consumer Practicality
In the last six months, have you made any of the following changes? Hispanic Adults 18+
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
I focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT
I have become more practical and realistic in my purchases
I have become more budget conscious
Highlights:
• Practicality, Focus on
Needs, Budget
Consciousness down
from April
• Practicality remains
elevated from May
2011
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAY 11-12
© 2012, Prosper®
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Vacation Travel
Digital Camera
TV
Mobile Device
Computer
Jewelry/Watch
Major Home Improvement
Home Appliances
Furniture
House
Car/Truck
Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Practical, But Willing to Spend
Major Purchase Plans – Next Six Months
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAY 12
© 2012, Prosper®
Word of Mouth Is Key
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Regularly Occasionally Never
Hispanic Non-Hispanic
When you purchase products or services, do
you seek advice from others before buying?
Do you give advice to others about products
or services you have purchased?
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Regularly Occasionally Never
Hispanic Non-Hispanic
Source: BIGinsight™ Media Behaviors & Influence Survey DEC 11
© 2012, Prosper®
BIG
Co
ns
um
er
Blo
g
Have You Been Briefed for May? view
Gen Y’s Financial Lessons from Forrest Gump view
FYU: Department Store Domination? view
A Mom Blog view
Generation Gap: Time to Chow Down on New Data view
A Fashion Fixation view
Two-Thirds of Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods Shoppers
Express Health Happiness view
Consumer Buzz: Touring the Autobahn view
Pain at the Pump Blog Series view
© 2012, Prosper®
Co
nta
ct
400 W. Wilson Bridge Road
Suite 200
Worthington, OH 43085
Ph: 614-846-0146
for complimentary insights, visit:
www.BIGinsight.com