Contract tree farming and smallholders: Drivers of adoption in Thailand
B_GRIFFNPRECISION FARMING: ADOPTION, PROFITABILITY, AND MAKING BETTER USE OF DATA
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Transcript of B_GRIFFNPRECISION FARMING: ADOPTION, PROFITABILITY, AND MAKING BETTER USE OF DATA
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PRECISION FARMING: ADOPTION, PROFITABILITY, AND MAKING BETTER USE OF DATA
T.W. Griffin, J. Lowenberg-DeBoer, D.M. Lambert, and J. PeoneSite Specific Management Center - Purdue University
T. Payne and S.G. DaberkowUSDA-ERS
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3 part presentation
1) Adoption trends in the US and Worldwide
2) Review of PA profitability literature
3) Making better use of yield monitor data
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Adoption Trends
• Worldwide network of collaborators• USDA ARMS study• PA Services Dealership Survey
– Whipker and Akridge, 2004
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Combine Yield Monitors
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Yield Monitor Grain Flow Sensor
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Yield Map
Higher yields
Lower yields
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Actual Adoption Rates of U.S. Yield Monitors
0
10
20
30
40
% o
f pla
nted
acr
es cornsoybeanwheancotton
Approximately 30,000 in 2000 45,000 in 2003
Source: before 1995 MangoldAfter 1995 USDA ARMS
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Actual Adoption Rates of U.S. Yield Mapping Yield Monitor plus a GPS
0
5
10
15
20
% o
f pla
nted
acr
es
cornsoybeancotton
Source: USDA ARMS
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European Yield Monitor Use
• Germany 4250 212 2003• United Kingdom 400 43 2000• Denmark 400 100 2000• Sweden 150 48 2000• France 50 2 2000• Holland 6 11 2000• Belgium 6 7 2000• Spain 5 0 2003• Portugal 4 3 2003
Per million acresTotal Year
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Latin American Yield Monitor Use
• Argentina 1000 17 2003• Brazil 100 1 2002• Chile 12 8 2000• Uruguay 4 3 2000
Total Per million acres Year
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0
50
100
150
200
250yi
eld
mon
itors
Germany '03
US '03US '00 Denmark '00 Sweden '00UK '00Argentina '03 Holland '00
Yield monitors by country per million acres
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Soil Mapping Adoption
05
10152025
% o
f pla
nted
acr
es
Corn Soybean Wheat Cotton
Source: USDA ARMS
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Remote Sensing Adoption
0
5
10
15%
of p
lant
ed a
cres
19992000
20012002
Corn Soybean Wheat
Source: USDA ARMS
Redefined question in 2002
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Adoption of VRT-Fertilizer
0
5
10
15
20%
of p
lant
ed a
cres
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Corn Soybean Wheat CottonSource: USDA ARMS
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Adoption of VRT in Corn
0
5
10
15
20%
of p
lant
ed a
cres
1998 1999 2000 2001
Fertilizer Seed Pesticide
Source: USDA ARMS
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Adoption of VRT in Soybean
0
5
10
15
20%
of p
lant
ed a
cres
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Fertilizer Seed Pesticide
Source: USDA ARMS
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Adoption of VRT in Cotton
0
5
10
15
20%
of p
lant
ed a
cres
1998 1999 2000
Fertilizer Seed Pesticide
Source: USDA ARMS
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VRT Offered by Ag Retailers
• 67% of service providers offer VRT• 40% offer single-nutrient VRT
– Still less than 50% by 2006
• 23% offer multi-nutrient VRT in 2004– 28% of providers expect to offer by 2006
• <10% offer VRT - seedingSource: Whipker and Akridge, 2004
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Service Providers Offering VRT fertilizer, lime, and pesticides
0
25
50
75
100
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
% o
f dea
lers
Multi Single Total
Source: Whipker and Akridge
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VRT-Fertilizer by Region
0
10
20
30
40
50%
of d
eale
rs
Midwest Other states
Manual VR Single-nutrient Multi-nutrient
Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004
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GPS Lightbars
Purdue Davis Farm
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GPS Lightbar Guidance used by Service Providers
• 61% offer applications with GPS guidance– 72% in Midwest
– 39% in other states 020406080
100
% o
f dea
lers
19992000
20012002
20032004
Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004
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GPS Auto-Guidance
• 5.3% of dealers use GPS auto-guidance– 4.2% in Midwest and 7.4% in other states
– Regional difference?
Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004
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On-the-go Sensors
• Soil Dr – been around the longest• Greenseeker• Norsk Hydro N-sensor
– ~320 total units– ~300 in Europe
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Sensors for Mapping
• Soil pH sensor available– Veris Mobile Sensor Platform >5 sold– K sensor being developed– 7.8% of dealers offer soil EC mapping*
*Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004
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Fundamental Constraints of Adoption
• Lack of research support• Human capital costs• Lack of education and training
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Fundamental Constraints of Adoption
• Lack of support and consulting• High opportunity cost of management time• Information-intensive / embodied knowledge
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“Information-intensive” vs. “Embodied knowledge”
Information-intensive• Field level data to
make decisions• Requires additional
data and skill• VRT and precision
agriculture• IPM
Embodied knowledge• Information purchased
in the form of an input• Requires minimal
additional data/skill• Hybrid corn• Round-up Ready or Bt
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Fundamental Incentives of Adoption
• Technology costs are declining• Incorporation of technology in society
– GPS in cars and boats
• Increased comfort level with technology– USDA FSA and NRCS using GIS with farmers
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Fundamental Incentives of AdoptionAutomating Record Keeping • Identity tracking of commodities• Pesticide record keeping • Environmental regulations – monitor input use
– May lead into cost sharing for adoption
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Fundamental Incentives of AdoptionAuto-guidance systems• Increase farm size with same equipment set
– Reduce overlap, expand work day, increase speed
• Match equipment operations (6, 8, 12 row)• Controlled trafficking• Strip till
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Economies of Scale in Data Analysis
• Skill to analyze 2000 ac works for 20,000 ac• Potential for PA consulting - outsourcing• Complementary goods and services
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Part 2: PA Profitability Review• Standalone VRT fertilizer often does not
cover costs– Swinton and Lowenberg-DeBoer (1998)
• In 2000, 63% of studies showed profits, but budget methods not standardized– Lambert and Lowenberg-DeBoer (2000)
• Economics of precision agriculture are site-specific
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Profitability Studies to Date
• Reviewed 234 articles• 210 reported some kind of benefit or loss• Of those, 68% reported positive benefits• 52% of studies involved an economist
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Articles by Technology
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% o
f art
icle
s
VRT generalVRT - NVRT - GPSVRT - seedVRT - pestVRT - P,KVRT- YMVRT - limeSoil sensing
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Articles by Crop
05
10152025303540
Corn
Wheat
Mixed
Corn/SoybeanPotatoSoybeanCorn/CottonSoybean/corn/rice
Sorghum/Millet
Cotton
% o
f art
icle
s % of total
% reporting positive benefits
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Part 3: Better Use of Data
• Many farmers collecting data– 10 + years and several megabytes
• Question remains: what to do with the data?• No one has all the answers• Is data valuable enough to justify processing?
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Better Use of Data
• Better farm-level experimental designs• Spatial statistical methods• More reliable local information
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Better Experimental Designs
• Small plot designs developed 70 years ago– Blocking and replications neutralize variability
• Precision agriculture measures variability• Spatial statistics can model variability
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Better Experimental Designs
• Opportunity for fewer replication large blocks• Types of comparisons farmer tend to conduct• Experimental designs being tested in 4 states• Farmer feedback crucial to evaluation
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64 acre field
Satellite image taken in July
Red outline is field boundary
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Planned comparisondesign3 varieties
Single-blocknon-replicated
Note: soil typesare outlined in blue
Each variety isrepresented on each major soiltype/zone
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Once designs aredecided upon in off-season,implementationis simple at planting time
Treatments can be changed at normal planterrefilling times
Soybean harvestcan be conductedat any angle to planter pass
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Yield Monitor Data Analysis
• Yield monitor data analysis service pilot project• 37th Annual Top Farmer Crop Workshop
– July 18-21, 2004
• More reliable results gained
http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/topfarmer
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Summary
• Adoption has been slow and uneven• Economics well documented – many studies• Information-intensive vs. embodied knowledge ag• Need for analysis services to overcome constraints
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Role of Extension Farm Management
• Third party evaluation desperately needed– Firm understanding of precision technologies
• Help farmers develop own recommendations instead of supplying answer– On-farm comparisons
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Role of Extension Farm Management
• Assist farmers and ag businesses in understanding economics of information
Barriers to adoption are an opportunity for extension to be more relevant