Beyond the Bubble: Labour Party Conference 2014

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI

#beyondthebubble

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research Ipsos MORI

The battle to 2015

or

“The war of the weak”

Joe Murphy, Evening Standard

5

Version 1 | Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Paste co-

brand logo

here

But first….

6

Should Scotland be an independent country?

The story of the campaign

Base: All certain to vote excluding undecided

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14

No

Yes

7




0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


16th September

No

Yes

8




0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


No

Yes

17th September

9

53%

46%

1%

70%

25%

5%

47%

50%

4%

31%

63%

6%

Who swung it?

Base: All certain to vote (926). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014

Yes

Don’t know/refused

No

40%

55

51%

3%

45%

40%

6%

55%

16-24 25-34 35-54 55+

30%

68%

3%

2011 Labour voters

10

Which of these has been more important in your decision to vote Yes/No – because you are hopeful for the future if the Yes/No

side wins, or because you are fearful for the future if the Yes/No side loses?

A tale of two campaigns

All expressing an opinion (923). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014

Hopeful 80%

Fearful 16%

Neither 2%

Don't know 3%

Hopeful 36%

Fearful 58%

Neither 2%

Don't know 3%

Yes supporters No supporters

11

Version 1 | Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Paste co-

brand logo

here

The English Question

55% supported giving Scotland extra

powers over tax and spend if it

voted to stay in the UK

56% support giving England the same

12 But we don’t know what we want – yet – except

it’s probably not what we have now

Which, if any, of the following statements best represents your views on how laws ONLY affecting England

should be made?

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 2,008 British adults 15+, 18th- 24th July 2014

22%

33%

33%

Laws only affecting England should be madeby a separate English Parliament

Laws only affecting England should be madeby the House of Commons, but only English

MPs should be able to vote on them

Laws only affecting England should be votedon by all MPs in Parliament, as they are now

Even in 2010, nine in ten voted for

one of the three main parties – now it’s

just three in four

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

Dec-0

3

Ma

r-04

Ju

n-0

4

Sep

-04

Dec-0

4

Ma

r-05

Ju

n-0

5

Sep

-05

Dec-0

5

Ma

r-06

Ju

n-0

6

Sep

-06

Dec-0

6

Ma

r-07

Ju

n-0

7

Sep

-07

Dec-0

7

Ma

r-08

Ju

n-0

8

Sep

-08

Dec-0

8

Ma

r-09

Ju

n-0

9

Sep

-09

De

c-0

9

Ma

r-10

Ju

n-1

0

Sep

-10

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Sep

-11

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Ju

n-1

2

Sep

-12

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

Sep

-13

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Ju

n-1

4

Sep

-14

33%

7%

34%

15%

2005 General Election

Cameron elected

(Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)

2010 General Election

Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through September 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Watch the share – not the lead!

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Lab 2012

average: 41% Lab 2014

average: 35%

15

Base: c.1,000-3,000 British adults per poll, 1st March 2013 – 17th September 2014

Sources: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, ICM, Populus,

ComRes, BMRB, YouGov, Survation, Opinium, Angus

Reid, Ashcroft

Co

nserv

ati

ve v

ote

sh

are

EOI % +/-

But the Conservatives aren’t benefiting much either

“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”

“Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over

the next twelve months?”

-30

-15

0

15

30

232425262728293031323334353637

Mar-1

3

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-13

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct-1

3

Nov-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

+3

32%

-3

Proximity

to 32%

Number of

polls % of polls

+/-3ppt 599/655 91%

+/-2ppt 517/655 79%

+/-1ppt 344/655 53%

16

70%

13%

3%

2% 12%

2014 Labour vote

2010 Labour

2010 LibDem

2010 Con

2010 UKIP

2010 Other

2010 DNV/too young/etc

Dangers for both parties – Labour relying on

LibDem switchers, but hardly any Tories

Base: 1,300 Labour supporters certain to vote, Jan – July 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

17

12%

12%

34%

23%

4%

16%

2014 UKIP vote

2010 Labour

2010 LibDem

2010 Con

2010 UKIP

2010 Other

2010 DNV/too young/etc

While although UKIP picking up support from all

parties, Conservatives are the biggest losers

Base: 441 UKIP supporters certain to vote, Jan – July 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Two parties, two problems

19

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Labour the most liked party, but Cameron most

liked leader

Miliband & the

Labour Party

Cameron & the

Conservative Party

% %

Total like him 31 48

Total do not like

him 63 49

Total like his party 50 42

Total do not like

his party 44 55

Which of these statements come closest to your view of David Cameron/ Ed Miliband and the Conservative/

Labour party?

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014

20

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

Ed’s approval ratings are low – IDS and Hague low...

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2014)

HOWARD

(2003-2005)

Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

21 Ed does well on understanding problems, but

behind on PM qualities and personality

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various

politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…

67%

55%

55%

53%

43%

48%

43%

39%

46%

30%

43%

22%

36%

53%

32%

20%

55%

20%

26%

17%

26%

42%

45%

26%

39%

31%

58%

19%

24%

39%

52%

67%

A capable leader

Understands the problems facing Britain

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement

Out of touch with ordinary people

More style than substance

Miliband Cameron Clegg

Has got a lot of personality

Has a clear vision for Britain

Farage


Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th-9th September 2014

Split sample for Nick Clegg (496) and Nigel Farage (514)

22 But people do feel more positive about the party

43%

35%

23%

61%

51%

40%

48%

46%

23%

52%

48%

27%

47%

41%

31%

48%

43%

14%

39%

32%

13%

56%

18%

20%

51%

39%

12%

38%

28%

24%

36%

16%

24%

39%

80%

64%

Looks after interests of people like me

Out of date

Fit to govern

Good team of leaders

Understands problems facing Britain

Different to other parties

Labour Conservative LibDem

Extreme

Keeps its promises

UKIP


Divided

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various

political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014. Split sample question for UKIP (514) and the Liberal Democrats (496)

23 Meanwhile, there are three key issues, each

owned by a different party…

Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in

helping you decide which party to vote for?*


5%

5%

6%

6%

6%

8%

10%

11%

12%

13%

23%

29%

30%

31%

Housing

Crime and ASB/ law and order

Pensions

Defence

Care for older/disabled

Taxation

Unemployment

Europe/ EU

Foreign policy/affairs

Benefits

Education/ schools

Healthcare/ NHS

Asylum and immigration

Economy

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014

*Showing only answers above 5%; see computer tables for full results

24 The Conservatives increasing their lead on the

economy

Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ja

n-0

0

Ma

y-0

0

Sep

-00

Ja

n-0

1

Ma

y-0

1

Sep

-01

Ja

n-0

2

Ma

y-0

2

Sep

-02

Ja

n-0

3

Ma

y-0

3

Sep

-03

Ja

n-0

4

Ma

y-0

4

Sep

-04

Ja

n-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Sep

-05

Ja

n-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Sep

-06

Ja

n-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Sep

-07

Ja

n-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Sep

-08

Ja

n-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Sep

-09

Ja

n-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Sep

-10

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Sep

-11

Ja

n-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Sep

-12

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Sep

-13

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Sep

-14

Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP

20%

3%

45%

2%

25 UKIP is making the running on immigration

Which party do you think has the best policies on asylum/ immigration the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Ja

n-0

3

Ma

y-0

3

Sep

-03

Ja

n-0

4

Ma

y-0

4

Sep

-04

Ja

n-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Sep

-05

Ja

n-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Sep

-06

Ja

n-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Sep

-07

Ja

n-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Sep

-08

Ja

n-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Sep

-09

Ja

n-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Sep

-10

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Sep

-11

Ja

n-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Sep

-12

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Sep

-13

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Sep

-14


18%

9%

19% 20%

26 While the NHS is Labour’s strongest card

Which party do you think has the best policies on healthcare the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats

or some other party?


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Ja

n-0

0

Ma

y-0

0

Sep

-00

Ja

n-0

1

Ma

y-0

1

Sep

-01

Ja

n-0

2

Ma

y-0

2

Sep

-02

Ja

n-0

3

Ma

y-0

3

Sep

-03

Ja

n-0

4

Ma

y-0

4

Sep

-04

Ja

n-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Sep

-05

Ja

n-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Sep

-06

Ja

n-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Sep

-07

Ja

n-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Sep

-08

Ja

n-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Sep

-09

Ja

n-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Sep

-10

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Sep

-11

Ja

n-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Sep

-12

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Sep

-13

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Sep

-14


39%

4%

21%

1%

So what does that tell us for

2015?

28 The most unpredictable election in living memory?

What are the precedents?

– The last time a government increased its vote share after

more than two years in office - 1955

– (It has only happened twice since 1900)

– The last time an opposition party was elected with an overall

majority after just a single parliament out of office – 1931

– Successive hung Parliaments – only once (1910) since 1832

– In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when one party had a

narrow poll lead one year out, the other party won.

29 Who do you want to be?

Election Winner Party ahead in vote Leader ahead

in ratings

2015 ? Opposition Government

30 Only two previous occasions when opposition

has led in vote but PM been ahead in ratings


in ratings


2010 None Opposition Opposition

2005 Government Government Opposition


1997 Opposition Opposition Opposition

1987 Government Opposition Opposition

1983 Government Government Government

31 Who do you want to be – Labour 1992 or

Conservatives 1979?


in ratings


2010 None Opposition Opposition



1997 Opposition Opposition Opposition

1992 Government Opposition Government

1987 Government Opposition Opposition

1983 Government Government Government

1979 Opposition Opposition Government

Beyond the Bubble: Labour Party Conference 2014

News & Politics

Transcript of Beyond the Bubble: Labour Party Conference 2014