Beyond Damnation: Nam Theun 2 and The Future of Hydropower in the

Mekong

Prashanth ParameswaranPresentation to Hitachi Center for Technology Colloquium10/19/2011

Agenda

• Overview • Method• Key Findings & Recommendations

Overview

The Mekong In Peril?• Rapidly growing energy demand

and regional connectivity in the Mekong region (GMS, ASEAN)

• Hydropower projects affect Mekong River, which sustains over 60 million people

• How to reconcile economic development with social and environmental imperatives?

• Is Nam Theun 2 (NT2) in Laos a “model project” in this regard as touted by WB and ADB?

Nam Theun 2 in Laos• First conceived 1980s, delayed

until construction in 2005-2010• Largest private sector cross-

border power project ($, 2005)• Over US$2 bn revenues to GOL

in 25 yrs(7-9% budget)• Part of GOL plan to become

“battery of Southeast Asia” despite poor dam record (90s)

• One party, authoritarian, corrupt government

Method

Project Structure

• Combination of secondary research and 19 interviews covering most Mekong countries

• April – May 2011: Trip preparation• May – Mid-July 2011: Internship at Singapore’s

Energy Market Authority (EMA) • Mid July – Sept 2011: Interviews and research in

Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia• Sept – Dec 2011: Produce articles/present findings• Dec 2011 – January 2012: Second phase of

research focusing on GMS and ASEAN Connectivity

Selected Interviewees

• Energy Studies Institute, Singapore• Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam• Mekong River Commission • Cambodian Trade Ministry • Nam Theun 2 Power Company, Laos• Chulalongkorn University, Thailand• International Rivers • Mae Fah Luang University, Thailand• Former WB & ADB consultants• EarthRights International

Key Findings & Recommendations

Key Findings: NT2 as a Model?

Yes No

Revenue Management Resettlement Plan

Stakeholder Consultation Lack of Contingency Planning

Transparency in Process Declining Bank Leverage vs. New Actors

RecommendationsActor Recommendation

Laos Strengthen WREA for project monitoring

Laos Independent review of dam assessments

WB/ADB Need to increase leverage post-construction

WB/ADB Focus more on project asymmetries

New Hydro Developers Adopt international best practice standards

The End