Beyond COVID Business Playbook...•Creative Partnering 39% 35% 46% 25% 36% Strategic Responses...
Transcript of Beyond COVID Business Playbook...•Creative Partnering 39% 35% 46% 25% 36% Strategic Responses...
Beyond COVID
Business Playbook
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Introduction
Survey Results
A Scenario Planning Approach
Introduction to the Playbook
Way Forward
Closeout
Agenda
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Introduction
Survey Results
A Scenario Planning Approach
Introduction to the Playbook
Way Forward
Closeout
Agenda
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Survey Results: Respondents
Large Business, 17%
Medium-sized Business, 25%
Small to Micro Business, 37%
Public Sector Organisation,
10%
Not for Profit Organisation,
12%
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Survey Results: Business Status
Operating with increased capacity, 4% Closed
temporarily, 6%
Closed permanently, 1%
Business as usual, 34%Operating under
reduced capacity, 55%
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Survey Results: Business Status
36%
31%30%
29%
35%
3% 2% 1%3%
6%
3%4%
9%
59%
55%
63%
67%
50%
6%
3%5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Large Medium NonProfit
PublicSector
Small toMicro
Large Medium Small toMicro
Large Medium NonProfit
PublicSector
Small toMicro
Large Medium NonProfit
PublicSector
Small toMicro
Medium NonProfit
Small toMicro
Business as usual Closed permanently Closed temporarily Operating under reduced capacity Operating with increasedcapacity
Business as Usual Closed TemporarilyOperating with
Increased CapacityClosed
PermanentlyOperating Under Reduced
Capacity
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Survey Results: Revenue Impact
21%
13%
37%
22%
6%
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
More than50% lower
Up to 50%lower
Up to 20%lower
No change Up to 20%higher
More than20% higher
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Survey Results: Revenue Impact
5%
13%
27%
10%8%
19%
7%
20%
43%
38%
47%
50%
38%
25%
13%
8% 6% 7%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Fin
anci
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ervi
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ICT
Man
ufa
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Ret
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Fin
anci
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ervi
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ICT
Man
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Ret
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Fin
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ervi
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ICT
Man
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Ret
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Fin
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ICT
Man
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Fin
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ICT
Man
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More than 50% lower Up to 50% lower Up to 20% lower No change Up to 20% higherMore than 50% Lower Up to 20% Lower Up to 20% HigherUp to 50% Lower No Change
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Survey Results: Outlook
1%
26%
56%
14%
3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Less than 1 year 1 year to 2 years 3 to 5 years 6 years to 10years
More than 10years
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Agenda
Introduction
Survey Results
A Scenario Planning Approach
Introduction to the Playbook
Way Forward
Closeout
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The processfor thinking the
future
A Scenario Planning Approach
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The 6 Giants
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The 5 Elements of Strategic Thinking
Global
Recession
New Balls PleaseHard Times
Forked Lightning UV
Continued
Global
Growth
One World
Divided World
Rapid uptake of
new technology
Covid-19
camel’s
straw
Collaborative global view through WHO,
UN and others
Economic
collapse/strainNo global view, each country for themselves -increased protectionism and geopolitical tension
Global Scenarios AC
• Duration of lockdown phases
• Degree of collaboration between business and government
• Quality of communication from the government
• Degree of collaboration between political parties
Economic
Climate
Negative
Nkosi Sikelel' iAfrikaSolidarity Fund
Freefall Mind the Gap
Economic
Climate
Positive
Social Cohesion High
Social Cohesion Low
Current
Position [V or U][L] [W]
South African Scenarios AC – next 18 months: Flags
• Tourism and leisure
• Aviation and maritime
• Automotive
• Construction and real estate
• Manufacturing (non essential)
• Financial services
• Education
• Oil and gas
• Agriculture
• e-Commerce
• ICT
• Personal and healthcare
• Food processing and retail (essentials)
• Medical supply and services
Industries impacted by Covid-19
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Agenda
Introduction
Survey Results
A Scenario Planning Approach
Introduction to the Playbook
Way Forward
Closeout
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The Beyond COVID Playbook
“a set of rules or suggestions that are considered to be suitable for a particular activity, industry, or job”
[Cambridge Dictionary]
“1 : one or more plays in book form
2 : a notebook containing diagrammed football plays”
[Mirriam Webster Dictionary]
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The Beyond COVID Playbook
Impact Response
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Impacts
Macro Environment Micro Environment
Number of Cases
Healthcare Capacity
Govt. Restrictions
Govt. Response
Deaths
People Needs
People Behaviours
Business Circumstances
Business Climate
SocialClimate
Demand
Staff Availability
Access to Inputs
Access to Cash
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Locating the Impacts
MA
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SU
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Business Clients
Consumers
Retailers
Merchandisers
Wholesalers Logi
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Direct
Product
Price Service
Vision/ Strategy/ Goals
Capital
Physical Footprint/ Infrastructure
People SystemsOperations
USP
Suppliers of Goods
Suppliers of Services Industry
Associations
Professional Bodies
Go
vt.
Lab
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Impact: DemandBusiness Model
Impact Driver
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Business Clients
Consumers
Retailers
Merchandisers
Wholesalers
Logi
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Product
Price Service
Vision/ Strategy/ Goals
Capital
Physical Footprint/ Infrastructure
People SystemsOperations
USP
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Suppliers of Goods
Suppliers of Services Industry
Associations
Professional Bodies
Go
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Lab
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De
man
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Consumer Buying Behaviours
ConsumerIncome
Consumer Needs
OrganisationNeeds
OrganisationCashflow
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Impact: Employee Availability
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Business Clients
Consumers
Retailers
Merchandisers
Wholesalers
Logi
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Direct
Product
Price Service
Vision/ Strategy/ Goals
Capital
Physical Footprint/ Infrastructure
People SystemsOperations
USP
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Suppliers of Goods
Suppliers of Services
Industry Associations
Professional Bodies
Go
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Lab
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Leaves of Absence/ Death
Retrenchments
Government Restrictions
Workplace Infections
Business Closures
Emp
loye
e A
vaila
bili
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Business ModelImpact Driver
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Impacts
Macro Environment Micro Environment
Number of Cases
Healthcare Capacity
Govt. Restrictions
Govt. Response
Deaths
People Needs
People Behaviours
Business Circumstances
Business Climate
SocialClimate
Demand
Staff Availability
Access to Inputs
Access to Cash
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Drivers of Impact
- +
Demand
Capacity
+
-
• Availability of Your Employees• Your Access to Inputs• Your Access to Cash
Demand for YourProducts &
Services
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Impact Scenarios
Demand for Your Products & Services
Your Capacity
Everything’s Rosy
MissedOpportunities
DarkClouds
All DressedUp
#BetterDirectors#WebinarWednesdays#BB@9 Demand for Your Products & Services
Your Capacity
Everything’s Rosy
MissedOpportunities
Dark Clouds
AllDressed Up
Organisation Level Impact Scenarios
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Product Level Impact Scenarios
Demand for Your Products & Services
Your Capacity
Everything’s Rosy
MissedOpportunities
DarkClouds
AllDressed Up
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Large MediumSmall to
MicroPublic Sector
Not for Profit
Growth
• Product Diversification 48% 34% 55% 20% 39%
• Market Diversification 42% 23% 47% 20% 29%
• Acquisition 9% 15% 3% 4%
Alternative Distribution
• eCommerce 42% 24% 26% 20% 25%
Rationalisation
• Cost Reduction 67% 74% 45% 35% 50%
• Business Rationalisation 18% 27% 17% 5% 7%
Unconventional
• Dynamic Capacity Planning 33% 15% 10% 20% 18%
• Creative Partnering 39% 35% 46% 25% 36%
Strategic Responses
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Strategic Responses: Everything’s Rosy
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Business Clients Consumers
Retailers
Merchandisers
Wholesalers
Logi
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Product
Price Service
Vision/ Strategy/ Goals
Capital
Physical Footprint/ Infrastructure
People SystemsOperations
USP
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Suppliers of Goods
Suppliers of Services
Industry Associations
Professional Bodies
Go
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Lab
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• Market Research (27%)
• Market Diversification (27%)
• Customer Analysis (18%)
• Product Diversification (36%)
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Strategic Responses: Everything’s Rosy
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Business Clients
Consumers
Retailers
Merchandisers
Wholesalers
Logi
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Product
Price Service
Vision/ Strategy/ Goals
Capital
Physical Footprint/ Infrastructure
People SystemsOperations
USP
SU
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Suppliers of Goods
Suppliers of Services
Industry Associations
Professional Bodies
Go
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• Remote working optimisation (45%)
• Organisational restructure (27%)
• COVID19-specific OHS (18%)
• Dynamic Capacity Planning (45%)
• Cost Reduction (45%)
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Strategic Responses: Everything’s Rosy
MA
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YO
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NIS
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Business Clients
Consumers
Retailers
Merchandisers
Wholesalers
Logi
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s
Direct
Product
Price Service
Vision/ Strategy/ Goals
Capital
Physical Footprint/ Infrastructure
People SystemsOperations
USP
SU
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EN
VIR
ON
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NT E
NA
BL
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Suppliers of Goods
Suppliers of Services
Industry Associations
Professional Bodies
Go
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Lab
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• Competitive Research (18%)
• Creative Partnering (36%)
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Strategic Choices
The Easier Choices• Remote Working vs. @theOffice
• Pause/Speed up the Strategy
The Defining Strategic Choices• Wait and See
• Crystal Gazing
• Horses for Courses
• One-size Fits Me
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Way Forward
ww
w.B
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CO
VID
.co
.za
How to Contribute?
• The Beyond COVID Survey
• Beyond COVID Interviews
• Beyond COVID Think Tank
Resources for Strategic Scenario-based Planning?
• The Beyond COVID Playbook
• Sector/ organisation-specific Insights
• Starting the Strategic Conversation
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Q&A Session
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Thank you for joining us for today's webinar.
Lings Naidoo via LinkedIn or [email protected]
Chantell Ilbury via LinkedIn or [email protected]
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