Bevers WHATS IN STORE FOR THE 2013 CATTLE MARKETS...
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2/7/2013 1 Stan Bevers Professor & Extension Economist Vernon, Texas January 15, 2013 Cattle Trails Cow-calf Conference Lawton, Oklahoma
Transcript of Bevers WHATS IN STORE FOR THE 2013 CATTLE MARKETS...
2/7/2013
1
Stan BeversProfessor & Extension Economist
Vernon, Texas
January 15, 2013Cattle Trails Cow-calf ConferenceLawton, Oklahoma
2/7/2013
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Cattle Inventory Numbers
Drought’s Impact on Corn & Cattle
Rising Protein Prices
450
500
550
600
650
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Thou
sdan
d He
ad
FI All Cow Slaughter2011 2012 2007-11
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4
25
30
35
40
45
5019
7619
7819
8019
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
0420
0620
0820
1020
12
Million Head
BEEF COWS THAT HAVE CALVEDJANUARY 1, 2012(1000 Head)
Alaska 5.5
Hawaii 78.1
U.S. Total 29,882.9
217
547
620
236
469
330
185
1456
714
749
435
862
1610
1884
1427
1728
4365
365
895
1857
909
452
265
331 195 300
995950
486 650 512
940
184
360
664195
160
1,000 to 4,365500 to 1,000250 to 500100 to 2500 to 100
109
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5
25
30
35
40
45
50
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Million Head
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6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Mill
ion
Head
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
Head
Cattle on Feed
2012 2011 2010 5 Yr Average
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7
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
Head
Cattle on Feed - Placements
2012 2011 2010 5 Yr Average
1.5
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
Head
Cattle on Feed - Marketings
2012 2011 2010 5 Yr Average
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8
1240
1250
1260
1270
1280
1290
1300
1310
1320
1330
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Poun
ds
FI Slaughter Weights2010 2011 2012 2007-11
750
760
770
780
790
800
810
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Poun
ds
FI Carcass Weights2010 2011 2012 2007-11
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9
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
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Carryover into 2012 – 851 Million Bushels◦ Lowest Since 1997
Began 2012 PY expecting 15 Billion Bushel Crop.◦ Then, carryover in 2013 would be 1.9 Billion
Bushels However….
CORN May CurrentCarry In Billion Bus. 0.851 0.989Planted Acres Million Acres 95.9 97.2Abandonment Percent 7.1 10.1HarvestedAcres
Million Acres 89.1 87.4
Yield Bus. Per HA 166.0 123.4Production Billion Bus. 14.790 10.780Imports Billion Bus. 0.015 0.100Domestic Use Billion Bus. 11.875 10.317Exports Billion Bus. 1.900 0.950Carry Out Billion Bus. 1.881 0.602Stocks/Use Percent 13.65 5.34
Will USDA allow ES to go less than 500 MB or S/U to go below 5%?
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88
92
96
100
104
108
112
470
540
610
680
750
820
890
12/13/11
12/27/11
1/10/12
1/24/12
2/7/12
2/21/12
3/6/12
3/20/12
4/3/12
4/17/12
5/1/12
5/15/12
5/29/12
6/12/12
6/26/12
7/10/12
7/24/12
8/7/12
8/21/12
9/4/12
9/18/12
10/2/12
10/16/12
10/30/12
11/13/12
11/27/12
12/11/12
December 2012 CME Corn
5 Year Index
10 Year Index
88
92
96
100
104
108
112
$470
$540
$610
$680
$750
$820
$890
12/13/12
12/27/12
1/10/13
1/24/13
2/7/13
2/21/13
3/7/13
3/21/13
4/4/13
4/18/13
5/2/13
5/16/13
5/30/13
6/13/13
6/27/13
7/11/13
7/25/13
8/8/13
8/22/13
9/5/13
9/19/13
10/3/13
10/17/13
10/31/13
11/14/13
11/28/13
December 2013 CME Corn
5 Year Index
10 Year Index
As of 2/7/2013http://agrisk.tamu.edu
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Topeka Capital Journal
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In a period where cattle prices start to rise. Corn Increase: Increased Corn Price dropped
feeders prices $20/cwt; or $150/head. Corn Increase: Increased Corn Price have
dropped calf prices $35/cwt; or $193/head. Volatility and Risk
90
95
100
105
110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$1602012 2013 5 Year 10 Year
750 Lbs Steer PricesJan 13 = 149.88Mar 13 = 151.45Apr 13 = 153.38May 13 = 155.15Aug 13 = 160.18
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91
94
97
100
103
106
109
$140
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
$200
2012 2013 5 Year 10 Year
550 Lbs Steer Prices
94
97
100
103
106
$140.00
$150.00
$160.00
$170.00
$180.00
6/9/12
6/23/12
7/7/12
7/21/12
8/4/12
8/18/12
9/1/12
9/15/12
9/29/12
10/13/12
10/27/12
11/10/12
11/24/12
12/8/12
12/22/12
1/5/13
1/19/13
2/2/13
2/16/13
3/2/13
3/16/13
3/30/13
4/13/13
May 2013 Feeder Cattle
5 Year Index
10 Year Index
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90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
$170
$180
$190
$200
$210
2012 2013 5 Year
Boxed Beef Prices (Choice)
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30-A
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30-J
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31-A
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31-O
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31-D
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29-F
eb
30-A
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30-J
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31-A
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31-O
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31-D
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Live
Boxed
Boxed Live
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31-D
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31-M
ar
30-J
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30-S
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31-D
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30-J
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30-S
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31-D
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31-M
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30-J
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Live
Boxed
Boxed Live Futures
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Even fewer breeding cows for the future. Will prolong significant herd rebuilding until
2015. How many corn acres will be planted in
2013; possibly > 100 million acres?◦ Trick Question!
Beef demand has stayed relatively strong, but we will test how much consumers are willing to pay for beef.
Questions/Comments
Stan BeversTexas AgriLife Extension Service940 552-9941 ext. [email protected]://agrisk.tamu.edu
