Between Determinism and Voluntarism Determinant Factors of Small State Foreign Policy Mt Szalai...
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Between Determinism and VoluntarismDeterminant Factors of Small State Foreign Policy
Máté Szalai14.10.2015.
Determinism Voluntarism
• Limitations of foreign policy• The set of possibilities of small states• The determinative factors• The hierarchy between the determinative factors
The Determinant Factors of Foreign Policy1. International political and economic system2. Geopolitics3. The process of state-making4. Internal and external institutions, structures and norms5. Identity
Realist determinism: geopolitics and the international system
Realist determinism: geopolitics and the international system
Officially neutral Rethorically neutral
Austria (1955-1994) Panama (1989-) Cambodia (1955-1970; 1993-)
Costa Rica (1949-) San Marino (1862-) Mexico (1939-)Finland (1956-1994) Sweden (1918-1994) Hungary ( only
during 1956)Ireland (1937-1972) Switzerland (1815-)Laos (1962-1964; 1975-)Liechtenstein (1868-)Malta (1980-2004)
Liberal determinism: institutions and state-making State-making processes define the basic norms and institutions of a
state Internal institutions define the way of policy-making, decision-making,
articulation, etc. External institutions limit and widen the set of possibilities of small
states
Voluntarism: Identity
Identity defines the set of possibilities Self-perception and political views shapes the foreign policy of small
states What kind of identity? How can we asses to investigate the notion of
identity? Role of learning
Dan Reiter: the role of learning in the foreign policy decision-making in small states
Facing unexpected situations politicians and diplomats– tend to rely on personal, institutional and socio-psychological experiences through the process of learning
Rawl Abdelal – Yoshiko M. Herrera – Alastair Iain Johnston – Rose McDemott (2006): Identity as a Variable. Perspectives on Politics, vol. 4. no. 4., pp. 695-711
IDENTITY 1 IDENTITY 2 IDENTITY 3
CONTENT Constitutive norms
Definemembership and ind. behav.
Social Purposes Define collective goals
Relational comparisons
Compare the group with others
Cognitive models
Interpret material conditions
CONTESTATION The extent of consensus
1. We are smaller
2. Smallness means weakness
3. Sole aim: survival
4. We have to stick together
„The identity of smallness”
Case study: Slovakia and Hungary
We will examine the foreign policy of Slovakia and Hungary from all three perspectives
But first…
Case study: can we call Hungary and Slovakia small? What region should we choose?
Broader neighborhood the 28 members of the European Union; the candidate and potential candidate countries of the EU; the participants of the Eastern Partnership program; other members of the European Economic Community; and the Russian Federation.
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
100,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
500,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
700,000,000,000
The GDP of the Slovak Republic and Hungary in their "Broader Neighborhood"
(1993-2012)
Av. Of the Broader Neighborhood Slovak RepublicHungary Av. Of the EU-28
Year
Valu
e of
the
GDP
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
18,095,68418,097,831
5,414,0959,897,247
Population in Slovakia and Hungary in their broader neighborhood(2013)
Av. of the Broader Neighborhood EU-averageSlovak Republic Hungary
Km2
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000
Land area of the Slovak Republic and Hungary in their broader neighborhood (2013)
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Miliatary Expenditures of Slovakia and Hungary in their Broader Neighborhood(1993-2012)
Av. of the Broader Neighborhood EU-AverageSlovak Republic Hungary
Year
Milit
ary
Expe
nditu
res a
s % o
f the
GDP
Case study: Hungary and Slovakia
1. What are the main characteristics of Slovakia and Hungary from the different points of view?
2. According to the theory, what should the Hungarian and Slovakian foreign policy look like?1. Aims2. Fluctuation of foreign policy after elections3. EU-policy4. Priority regions
1. Attributes of Slovakia and Hungary
Realist Determinism
Liberal Determinism
Voluntarism
International political and economic
system, geopolitics
External and internal institutions
Identity
• PCW-system• A region of small
states between great powers
• Energy-dependency on Russia
• Evolving democracies
• Functionable IOs
• Lack of historical experiences
• Lack of small state experiences
Basic data about Hungarian and Slovakian foreign policy since 1990
Hungary SlovakiaSovereign independence 1990.05.23. 1993.01.01.
General aims of foreign policy
Fluctuation of foreign policy after elections
EU-policyPriority regions
Anomalies
• Euro-Atlantic integration,• Neighborhood policy,• „Nation-policy”
• Euro-Atlantic integration• Neighborhood policy
High Low
Changing Supporting deeper integration• EU, USA, Russia• Countries with Hungarian
minorities• Western Balkan
• EU,USA, Russia• Western-Balkans
• Global policy• High fluctuation after
elections• More confrontative
Meciar-government (1993-1997)