Contract N: IEE/11/845/SI2.616378

Bringing Europe and Third countries closer together through renewable Energies

BETTER

WP3.5: SWOT Analysis of the North African Countries as conducive to implement RES

projects under Article 9 Part I: Country by Country Analysis

Project Coordinator: CIEMAT Work Package 3 Leader Organization: DLR

Task 3.5 Leader Organisation: PIK Contributions from: CIEMAT

August 2014

WP3.5: SWOT Analysis of the North African Countries Page 2

Contract N: IEE/11/845/SI2.616378

Project Acronym: BETTER

Bringing Europe and Third countries closer together through renewable Energies

WP3.5: SWOT Analysis of the North African Countries as conducive to implement RES

projects under Article 9 Part I: Country by Country Analysis

August 2014

Project Coordinator: CIEMAT Work Package 3 Leader Organization: DLR

Task 3.5 Leader Organisation: PIK Authors: Saskia Ellenbeck (PIK), Andreas Beneking (PIK)

Contributions from: CIEMAT Disclaimer: The sole responsibility for the content of this report lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Union. Neither the EACI nor the European Commission are responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Intelligent Energy Europe (IEE) Contract N: IEE/11/845/SI2.616378

Bringing Europe and Third countries closer together through renewable Energies (BETTER)

WP3.5: SWOT Analysis of the North African Countries Page 3

PREFACE

BETTER intends to address RES cooperation between the EU and third countries. The RES Directive allows Member States to cooperate with third countries to achieve their 2020 RES targets in a more cost efficient way. The core objective of BETTER is to assess, through case studies, stakeholders involvement and integrated analysis, to what extent this cooperation can help Europe achieve its RES targets in 2020 and beyond, trigger the deployment of RES electricity projects in third countries and create win-win circumstances for all involved parties. The case studies focusing on North Africa, the Western Balkans and Turkey will investigate the technical, socio-economic and environmental aspects of RES cooperation. Additionally, an integrated assessment will be undertaken from the EU plus third countries perspective, including a quantitative cost-benefit evaluation of feasible policy approaches as well as strategic power system analyses. Impacts on the achievement of EU climate targets, energy security, and macro-economic aspects will be also analysed. The strong involvement of all relevant stakeholders will enable a more thorough understanding of the variables at play, an identification and prioritisation of necessary policy prerequisites. The dissemination strategy lays a special emphasis on reaching European-wide actors and stakeholders, well, beyond the target area region. PROJECT PARTNERS

No Participant name Short Name Country code

CO1 Centro de Investigaciones Energticas, Tecnolgicas y Medioambientales CIEMAT ES

CB2 German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum fr Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V.) DLR DE

CB3 Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands ECN NL

CB4 JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbH JR AT

CB5 National Technical University of Athens NTUA GR

CB6 Observatoire Mediterranen de lEnergie OME FR

CB7 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK DE

CB8 Vienna University of Technology TUWIEN AT

CB9 United Nations Development Program UNDP HR

Intelligent Energy Europe (IEE) Contract N: IEE/11/845/SI2.616378

Bringing Europe and Third countries closer together through renewable Energies (BETTER)

WP3.5: SWOT Analysis of the North African Countries Page 4

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................5

2. SWOT ANALYSIS OF NORTH AFRICAN COUNTRIES ...............................7

2.1. SWOT Analysis Morocco .......................................................................7

2.2. SWOT Analysis Algeria ....................................................................... 15

2.3. SWOT Analysis Tunisia ...................................................................... 23

2.4. SWOT Analysis Libya.......................................................................... 32

2.5. SWOT Analysis Egypt ......................................................................... 40

Intelligent Energy Europe (IEE) Contract N: IEE/11/845/SI2.616378

Bringing Europe and Third countries closer together through renewable Energies (BETTER)

WP3.5: SWOT Analysis of the North African Countries Page 5

1. INTRODUCTION SWOT stands for Strength, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats and is a method often applied in strategic business planning to address the complexity of a situation by reducing the information to improve decision-making (Helms and Nixon 20101). Favourable and unfavourable internal and external issues are listed in the four quadrants of the analysis grid and allow for a quick qualitative overview as well as to understand how to better capitalize on strengths and opportunities or to overcome weaknesses and meet upcoming challenges. The method is not only used on company level but also to assess the situation of whole industry sectors in different countries.

Within the North African case study in BETTER, we use the SWOT analysis to assess the host country situation as conducive to implement RES projects under Article 9 of the RED. The aim is to identify factors that are favourable (Strengths, Opportunities) and unfavourable (Weaknesses, Threats) to the use of Art. 9, finally to help addressing the following questions:

How can we make the most from the regions STRENGTHS to increase the cumulative welfare of both EU and the regional countries?

How can we circumvent the regions WEAKNESSES by choosing the best technology options?

How can we create OPPORTUNITIES and then capitalize on them?

How can we manage possible THREATS, so that the 2020 RES targets will not be compromised by unfavorable evolution?

The approach in BETTER is slightly different from the usual one. Instead of internal factors we assess the current host country situation and instead of external factors possible future (internal and external) developments with the ability to change the current situation in order to embrace the dynamic character of the objective, before the background of energy policy and international cooperation. In others words: Strengths and weaknesses manifest themselves in the present but cannot be limited to the host country alone, opportunities and threats are related to the future but cannot be limited to external developments alone.

Building on Deliverable 2.4, a three-level framework is used, addressing the macro-level, the micro-level and acceptance issues. These levels/categories are separate from each other, but strong interconnections exist. In each category several factors are assessed separately. In total, 13 factors were chosen as most relevant for the category in focus. These are:

Macro level:

Energy system strategy and energy outlook

RES Industry development

Energy security

Micro level:

Market structure of energy system

1 Helms, M., Nixon, J. (2010): Exploring SWOT analysis where are we now? A review of academic research from the last decade, Journal of Strategy an Management, Vol. 3, No. 3, 2010, pp. 215-251

Intelligent Energy Europe (IEE) Contract N: IEE/11/845/SI2.616378

Bringing Europe and Third countries closer together through renewable Energies (BETTER)

WP3.5: SWOT Analysis of the North African Countries Page 6

Grid and Interconnections

RE Regulatory & Policy Framework

Institutional Framework for RES deployment

Financial risks and uncertainty

Investment facilitation

RES capacity and potential/Available Technology Options

Acceptance:

Public awareness/acceptance

Environmental effects

Social effects

Each factor is examined with help of a set of qualitative indicators, derived from Deliverable 2.4 and 2.5. It has to be mentioned that the choice of factors may result in certain overlaps with the question of domestic RES-E deployment in the North African countries, but in the authors view many factors apply to both the situation for RES-E export and domestic use.

As data sources the results of WP 2.4, 2.5, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, and the impact assessment in North Africa are used. The findings are substantiated with desktop research using documents from relevant energy related initiatives, international organisations and research institutes, active in the MENA Region, as well as publicly available data from national authorities. With feedback from the stakeholder workshops and a questionnaire sent to stakeholders from all five North African countries the findings are complemented and validated.

Intelligent Energy Europe (IEE) Contract N: IEE/11/845/SI2.616378

Bringing Europe and Third countries closer together through renewable Energies (BETTER)

WP3.5: SWOT Analysis of the North African Countries Page 7

2. SWOT ANALYSIS OF NORTH AFRICAN COUNTRIES

2.1. SWOT Analysis Morocco Current: Factors within the existing situation Future: Factors with the possibility to change the current situation

Strengths

(current)

Weaknesses

(current)

Opportunities

(futu