Beth Ford Land O’Lakes, Inc. - USDA · 2017-06-22 · $/CWT 1000 Head MPP-Dairy Margin: United...
Transcript of Beth Ford Land O’Lakes, Inc. - USDA · 2017-06-22 · $/CWT 1000 Head MPP-Dairy Margin: United...
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Beth FordLand O’Lakes, Inc.
Chief Operating Officer
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PurinaAnimal nutrition
and feed
Diversified agribusinesses driven by insights and innovation
Winfield UnitedAg services, crop inputs,
precision agriculture
Land O’LakesDairy foods and
ingredients
Land O’LakesSUSTAINSustainability
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Farmer-ownedInternational Development
Branded GoodsMarketing& Sales
B2B / IndustrialMarketing& Sales
R&D /ManufacturingPrimary
Processing
MilkQualityAnimal
Nutrition
Crop Inputs& Insights
Seed
Production Consumer
Our unique farm-to-fork business model enables us to see things differently
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Market insights
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Dairy Commodity Markets are depressed…
Dairy Markets
US Dairy Commodity Markets
Butter
Barrels
NFDM
Whey
Data Source: CME, NDPSR
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…driven by a slowing demand• China import demand has
slowed down and Russia has banned dairy imports due to sanctions
• All resulting in EU Government NFDM inventory of 770 MM lb (equates to about 8 months of US NFDM exports)
• Potential trade disruptions would further depress US export demand and cause further dairy commodity market decline
• Mexico is a key trading partner, with over $1B of imports from US last year
Data Source: USDA Ag Prices Report; Blimling Import Data
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…outpaced by a significant milk production growth in recent years
Data Source: USDA monthly Milk Production Report, Eurostat, and DCANZ
-5
0
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
YOY
Chan
ge (B
illio
n lb
s)
Annual Change in Milk Production(Top Exporting regions)
United States EU-28 OceaniaGlobal MP-
Milk Production Quotas lifted in
May, 2015
• Key driver has been EU production expansion, due to lifted quotas
• But US production has been on a steady multiple-year growth as well
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9000
9100
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$0
$2
$4
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$10
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$18
Feb-
07
Jul-0
7
Dec-
07
May
-08
Oct
-08
Mar
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Aug-
09
Jan-
10
Jun-
10
Nov
-10
Apr-
11
Sep-
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Feb-
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Jul-1
2
Dec-
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May
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Oct
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Mar
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Jul-1
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1000
Hea
d
$/CW
T
MPP-Dairy Margin: United States
Dairy Herd Size Milk Price - Feed Cost
Futures
Source: USDA Milk Production Report, USDA Agricultural Report, CME Futures; Blue MOF line calculated using futures
U.S. milk production growth is likely to continue, driven by solid margins
Expansionmargin area
Contractionmargin area
Neutralmargin area
• Dairy producer margins are highest since 2014, and are in the ‘expansion’ area
• Margins have been primarily supported by low feed costs
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The oversupply is the most critical on the Northeast and Michigan
Milk Dumping Volume
• In 2016, over 180 MM lbs and 70 MM lbswas dumped in Northeast and Mideast FMMO, respectively
• Aggressive milk production growth has been combined with a reduction of processing capacity and Fluid milk consumption
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While milk consumption is declining, butter demand is growing
• Most dairy categories experienced a solid demand growth (e.g. cream(ers), Natural cheese and Butter
• Butter has been growing at 3.2% rate of 3.2%, driven by the consumer preference for simple and natural food
• Fluid milk consumption has been declining at 1.8% rate
Source: IRi, LOL analysis
CAGR for key Dairy Retail Categories
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Keys to addressing the challenges in this market
Product Innovation Trade
Risk management
availability
Balanced growth from producers
Integrated approach to
market decisions
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Why create a sustainability business unit?
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Ability to influence sustainability from farm to fork
W E TO U C H
2,200 dairy producers
1,270 ag producers
800 ag retail co-ops
O U R FA R M E R - O W N E R S
50% U.S. harvested acres
25% U.S. producers
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Expertise
Build team –Jason Weller
AgilityFarm-to-
fork
FocusWater, Air, Soil
Land O’Lakes SUSTAIN Offers:Authentic sustainability from the single, most
comprehensive view of the food industry
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We’re early on the journey, but see a path to:
Leverage our scale and
scope
Integrate all efforts with data and
technology
Develop science-based
approaches
Provide assistance to our farmers to make
best management
decisions
Answer the call from partners to
provide sustainability solutions for companies
connected to consumers
Further develop collaborative
partnerships with organizations such
as the Environmental Defense Fund
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Thank you