Bernd Hansjrgens, Frank Messner UFZ - Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle, GermanyGLOWA-Elbe GLOWA Status conference 19 May 2005 CologneIntegration in GLOWA Elbe

Focus of presentation

Introduction: Integration needsGLOWA Elbe strives at giving scientific support for Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in the Elbe River Basin, considering explicitly the potential impacts of global change.

The key element of IWRM is integration !

Integration needs

The key element of IWRM is integrationIn this context different forms of integration are needed:

Transdisciplinary integration of stakeholders and expert knowledge Integration of water policy fields: water quantity, water quality,floods

Integration of disciplines: finding links between natural and social sciences building up model systems Integration of results:support decision making in river basin managementIntegration needs: structure of the presentationIntegration needs

GLOWA II focuses on these five forms of integration:1. The Integrative Methodological Approach (IMA) the overall framework for integration in GLOWA Elbe2. The integration of stakeholders and expert knowledge transdisciplinary integration3. Integrated analysis of related water policy fields4. Integration of disciplines model integration5. Integration of results for decision support

1. IMA the overall framework of integrationIntegrative Methodological Approach of GLOWA Elbe (IMA)A) External boundary conditionse.g.,Climate Change and socioeconomic SRES B2 (Regionalisation)Climate Change and socioeconomic SRES A1 (Liberalisation)No climate change and .B) Policy optionse.g.,Introducing fertiliser chargesChanging priorities of water distributiontransferring water from other basins...

1. Implementation of IMA in research phases

Transdisciplinary integration has two meanings in the literature:

a)problem-oriented research with all important scientific disciplines involved trying to find appropriate approaches based on a mix or a synthesis of disciplinary approaches

b)involvement of decision makers, stakeholders and experts in order to transfer scientific results directly into society2. Transdisciplinary integration

problem analysisframework of developmentimpact analysisstakeholder meeting(June 2002)Identifying coherent regional global change scenarios in an interdisciplinary team, e.g.:Understanding actor relations and including expert and local knowledge a) analysis of global changeb) analysis of institutional settingclimate changedemographic changeenergy productionExample: Derivation of Scenarios in GLOWA Elbe I2. Transdisciplinary integration

Brandenburg

Berlin

Federal level

Saxonia

Administration

Science

delegation

policy advice

new water users

old water users

executive authorities and working groups

decision makers

Cross-state working group

restoration

Lusatia Initiative

energy/mining

Brandenburg

Berlin

Federal level

Saxonia

Administration

Science

delegation

policy advice

new water users

old water users

executive authorities and working groups

decision makers

Cross-state working group

restoration

Lusatia Initiative

energy/mining

3. Integrated analysis of related water policy fieldsGLOWA Elbe I Hot spot Unstrut Selected impacts ElbeWater quantity problems Spree/Havel (induced by mining)not considered

A1

B2

GLOWA Elbe II Climate impacts EU Policy impacts ElbeWater quantity Elbeemerging hot spots3. Integrated analysis of related water policy fields

A1

B2

water quality problemswater quantity problems floodsGLOWA Elbe II Climate impacts EU Policy impacts ElbeWater quantity Elbeemerging hot spotsco-operation with VERIS (BMBF) Science for Integrated Water Resources Management also requires: Analysis of policy objective trade-offs3. Integrated analysis of related water policy fieldscombined analysis of water quantity regulation and water quality problemscombined analysis of water quantity regulation and flood protection

Energy & Mining: KaSIMHouseholds & small trade: HAUSHALT WASSERAgriculture: RAUMIS / MODAMIndustry: INDUSTRIE WASSERRationale of integrating natural and social science modelling 4. Integration of disciplines model integration

Global Change Model System of GLOWA Elbe

economic water demand (frame of development)Water BALance MOdel (WBALMO) ElbeRationale of integrating natural and social science modelling (example water quantity analysis)4. Integration of disciplines model integration

Finding the missing link between water balance modelling and economic evaluationThere is no direct link between these two concepts !Needed: transfer functions to clarify the contribution of water availability to economic benefits (or: the vulnerability of water users to lacking water availability)

Finding the missing link between water balance modelling and economic evaluationTypical WBALMO result: Average yearly fulfilment of demand for different scenarios (in %, here: for industry in Upper Spree region)Starting period of touristic usewater treatment costsNeeded: transfer functions to clarify the contribution of water availability to economic benefits (or: the vulnerability of economic benefits to lacking water availability)

Finding the missing link between water balance modelling and economic evaluationTypical WBALMO result: Average yearly fulfilment of demand for different scenarios (in %, here: for industry in Upper Spree region)Needed: transfer functions to clarify the contribution of water availability to economic benefits (or: the vulnerability of economic benefits to lacking water availability)area of pondsminimum water level of ponds (equals 77% of demand)Based on this knowledge, transfer and benefit functions can be integrated in WBALMO !vulnerability

Two water management strategies with constant climate+ including climate change+ including socio-economic change (subsidy cuts, liberalisation)Average profits of fish farming, 2003-2052 (in mio. Euro of 2003, 2% discount)This means:fish farming is threatened by significant profit reductions - mainly caused by socio-economic and climate change !!!

GLOWA I example: Results for pilot project SpreeBasisFlutungRedFlOderBlnOderBBThere are good arguments for almost all alternative strategies, decision depends on weighting of results for individual criteriaeconomic criteria ( net benefit)water management criteria5. Integration of resultsGLOWA Elbe II:Completion of resultsInclusion of quality-quantity aspectsApplication of participatory MCA toolsGLOWA Elbe II: Extension of analysis Inclusion of Elbe Basin aspects

StrategienNettonutzen Binnenfischerei

RangNettonutzen Wasser-bereitstellung

RangNetto-nutzen Wasserqualitt

RangNettonutzen Nachnutzungs-tourismus

RangWasserverfgbarkeit Industrie [%] Rangkologische Mindestabflsse [%]

RangSpreewald [m/s] RangBerlin [m/s]

RangBasis0304030586,4396,9312,1318,34Flutung-3,73513,622-0,61513,35181,3598,0112,4218,63RedFl-0,04441,531-0,0242,78386,4396,9312,0518,25OderBB0,171< -1,0750,9213,21287,0197,1212,5118,72OderBln0,092< 0,7430,3020,06486,6296,9312,1318,91

Scientific support for IWRM requires multi-faceted forms of integration The IMA approach of GLOWA Elbe offers a framework to achieve this challenging task Important methodological tools and results emerge from this research (inclusion of economic analysis in water policy: Water Framework Directive)

6. Conclusions

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