Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG Australia 13 June 2003
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Transcript of Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG Australia 13 June 2003
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State Library of VictoriaPublic Libraries Seminar
The Big Shift – business implications of demographic & cultural change for Melbourne
Bernard Salt
Author The Big Shift
Partner KPMG Australia
13 June 2003
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The push from the bush
• Suburban culture emerged during the 20th Century• Provincial coastal culture now ascendant • Underpinned by lifestyle-seeking baby boomers• Edna Everage; Neighbours 1985; Kath & Kim 2002
2001
Inner city5%
Suburbia58%
Rural18%
Coastal19%
1901
Inner city25%
Suburbia15%
Rural52%
Coastal8%
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1. Gold Coast 14,7542. Casey 10,0733. Brisbane South West 7,2674. Melton 5,9345. Brisbane North West 5,5216. Wyndham 5,4637. Blacktown 5,3108. Pine Rivers 5,1369. Baulkham Hills 4,52710. Brisbane South East 4,501
18. Melbourne 3,28321. South Sydney 2,824
“We’re goin’a surf city … gonna have some fun”
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Why population shifts are important to business
10,000 extra residents support job growth, eg:
• 3,700 new suburban households, or
• 6,700 new inner-city households
• $70 million in new retail spending*
• $25 million in new supermarket spending*
• ½ a Kmart
• One cinema screen
• 7,500 cubic metres of pre mix concrete
Population loss reverse these markets
*includes GST
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Growth hotspots in Melbourne
Outside top 10
• Hume (4,367)
• Greater Geelong (3,686)
• Brimbank (3,371)
• Mornington Peninsula (3,368)
• Melbourne (3,283)
• Whittlesea (2,766)
Seachange impact on Bellarine & Mornington Peninsulas
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Segment hotspots across Melbourne
• Boomers to Casey, Melton East & Craigieburn
• Xers to Casey, Melton East & Craigieburn
• Lone persons to CBD, Port Melbourne & Knox North
• Never married men (25-34) to Whittlesea South, Yarra Ranges South West & Keilor
• Never married women (25-34) to St Kilda, Richmond & Knox North
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Bleeding bush … and the blooming beach
Broome
Narooma
Victor HarbourDenmarkAugusta-MargaretRiver
Geraldton
Busselton
Nowra-Bomaderry
Port StephensPort MacquarieCoffs Harbour
Gold CoastCaloundraNoosaHervey Bay
Yeppoon
WhitsundayTownsville
CairnsPort Douglas
Sorell
Palmerston
Leonora
MacedonRanges
Losers
Winners
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Victorian cities are no longer the losers they once were
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The real action outside Melbourne is focussed on lifestyle towns: Echuca, Torquay, Daylesford, Mansfield and the coast within a 90 minute drive of the CBD
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Growing DecliningPhoenix +950 Baltimore -85Los Angeles +1,467 Philadelphia -68Houston +582 Pittsburgh -55Fort Lauderdale +368 Detroit -50Dallas +366 St Louis -48
LAPhoenixDallas
HoustonFort Lauderdale
St Louis
Detroit
Pittsburgh
PhiladelphiaBaltimore
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Inter-city commuting on the rise … Australians pursue lifestyle options
2001 Change since 96
1. Sydney – Wollongong 18,239 19%
2. Brisbane – Gold Coast 15,195 23%
3. Sydney – Newcastle 11,519 1%
4. Melbourne – Geelong 10,146 18%
5. Perth – Mandurah 5,656 18%
6. Brisbane – Sunshine Coast
4,531 14%
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Chic-house city living
• Out with Neighbours … in with Friends, Seinfeld, Sex and the City, The Secret Life of Us
• Out with the stubbie … in with elegant longneck boutique beer bottles with a designer label
Sydney 6,000
Melbourne 4,834
Brisbane 4,215
Perth 1,516
Canberra 872
Adelaide 618
Darwin 225
Hobart 7
Total 18,287
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Sydney and Melbourne lead the big shift downtown
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1976-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000/01 2001/02
Year
Po
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gro
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Sydney Melbourne Balance
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-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Age Group
Pop
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tion
gro
wth
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Age Group
Pop
ula
tion
gro
wth
Sydney
Melbourne
20-somethings lead the charge downtown
3,013 more 20-24 year olds in 2001 than 15-19 year olds in 1996
2,810 more 25-29 year olds in 2001 than 20-24 year olds in 1996
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1921 1933 1947 1954 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
The ageing of the average Aussie bride
Xer brides 29 in 2001
Bridegrooms
Baby boomer brideswere 21 in 1971
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Women want to work … and will make further gains by 2016
-100
1020304050607080
15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65+
1981 1998 2016
%
Professional working women demand their own drink eg Cosmopolitan
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No real change to male participation rates
-100
102030405060708090
100
15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65+
1981 1998 2016
%
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0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
Baby boomers just won’t die!
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It doesn’t get any better after 43-48
40
5430
25
70
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,0001
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18
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27
30
33
36
39
42
45
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51
54
57
60
63
66
69
72
75
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81
84
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90
93
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0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Born 1931
‘Rich’ live longer
Boomer mid-pointTotal populationby single year
Pre-boomer’sslide
Boomers at their peak until June 2006 … then the slide begins
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$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 9910
0 an
d ov
er
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 9910
0 an
d ov
er
Average income by age 1986
Average income by age 2001
39 44
43 48
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20-something 50-something
2002 2.726m 2.385m
2021 2.975m 3.049m
Trendy to be fifty … in 2021
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The Shakira conspiracy
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Born Label Age 2001
2001(m)
2021(m)
1931-1946 Pre-boomers
55-69 2.5 1.6
1946-1961 Boomers 40-54 4.1 3.9
1961-1976 Xers 25-39 4.4 4.6
1976-1991 Ys 10-24 4.1 4.6
1991-2006 Zs 0-9 2.6 4.3
Why the fixation with Baby Boomers?
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… but the Swedes can’t surf!
Million Growth Million Growth
1801 0.1 - - -
1851 1.0 0.9 - -
1901 3.7 2.7 - -
1951 8.5 4.8 7.0 -
2001 19.4 10.9 8.9 1.9
2051 25.4 6.0 8.4 -0.5
2101 25.3 -0.1 8.3 -0.1
Australia Sweden
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Implications for business• Financial - later commitment to mortgages; savvy
older consumers; succession planning; superannuation; blending work and life
• Retail - shopping centre locations; shopping hours and flexibility; CBD supermarkets & convenience stores; bulky goods from household formation
• Consumer Goods - boomers want ‘lite’, fast, healthy foods eg noodles; fashion to accommodate larger sizes; longnecks replace stubbies; European & Asian food influences
• Motor vehicles - 4WD giving over to 20-something female cars, eg Honda Jazz, VW Polo
• Pharmaceutical - staying young, fit and vital; shift to wellness; nicotine patches
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Dense Australians in 2001
• Zipcode 10128 has 59,000 people per sqkm
Upper East Side Kings Squash
• Kings Cross has 18,000
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Further information & contact
• Population Growth database 2002 – March 2003
• The Big Shift 2 – mid-July 2003
• Links: www.thebigshift.com; www.kpmg.com.au
• Contact: Bernard Salt (03) 9288 5047; [email protected]
• Bernard Salt’s column appears in The Australian every second Thursday (next 12 June 2003)
• KPMG Firstbuy – pick-up on your way out