BEP IR 2020/media/Files/B/Brookfield-BEP...This presentation contains forward-looking statements and...
Transcript of BEP IR 2020/media/Files/B/Brookfield-BEP...This presentation contains forward-looking statements and...
Brookfield Renewable
INVESTOR DAYSEPTEMBER 24, 2020
Agenda
Looking AheadSachin Shah, Chief Executive Officer
3
Our Long-Term ApproachConnor Teskey, Chief Investment Officer
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Financial UpdateWyatt Hartley, Chief Financial Officer
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Key Takeaways and Q&ASachin Shah, Chief Executive Officer
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3
SACHIN SHAH
Looking Ahead
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
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Decarbonization is a global objective
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32% 28% 38% 37%19% 28%
California New York E.U. U.K. India China
Current Renewables Generation Other Generation 2050 Renewables Target
Carbon reduction is universal
There is still a long path to meeting carbon-free targets globally
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
NET-ZERO CARBON
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Increasingly ambitious corporate targets
2025Amazon, Wal-Mart, and Nike: 100% renewable
2030Microsoft: carbon negativeH&M: 100% renewable
2040Amazon: net zero carbon emissionsGeneral Motors: 100% renewable
2050Microsoft: remove historical carbon emissionsJohnson & Johnson: 100% renewable
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
$/M
Wh
PV Solar Onshore Wind CCGT
Wind and solar are the cheapest sources of bulk generation
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY
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How has the recession impacted these trends?
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U.S. electricity generation is down 5%
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
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Over the same period, fossil fuel generation is down 10%
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
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Renewable generationis up 14%
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
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$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Investors signed up to Principles for Responsible InvestmentA
UM
(TR
ILLI
ON
S U
SD)
20%+
Source: UNPRI; Scotiabank GBM.
Significant capital will be invested into renewables
$2T
$5T
$10T
INVESTMENT IN THE LAST
5 YEARS
PROJECTED RANGE OF INVESTMENT OVER THE NEXT DECADE
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
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Our leading and differentiated businessis very well positioned…
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…with over $50 billion of operating renewables
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Growing distributions
$0.57
$1.74
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Note: distribution amounts have been adjusted for the special distribution of BEPC shares effective July 30, 2020.
6%CAGR
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Strong balance sheet
BBB+Investment grade
balance sheet
$3.4BAvailable liquidity
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Best-in-class carbon avoidance
6 MillionVehicles off theroad annually
Nearly AllLondon’s annual
generation
5 MillionHomes’ annual electricity use
Note: figures above equivalent to BEP’s operating portfolio, which avoids 28 million tons of CO2 annually.
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A simple, repeatable strategy
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Invest on a value basis
Operational turnarounds
Carve-out transactions
Development
Restructuring
Capital solutions
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Use our operating expertise to help businesses thrive
Sustainability Additionality Transition
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Our approach
1Invest on a value basis
2Sustain
AddTransition
3Monetize mature assets
12–15% ReturnsLong-term Impact
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20+ year track record
1. Source: Bloomberg2. Chart indicates share price performance including reinvestment of dividends.3. BEP and S&P 500 Index returns since 11/30/1999. S&P 500 ESG Index returns since its inception on 4/30/2010.
BBB BBB+
1999 2020
BEP S&P 500 S&P 500 ESG
18%BEP Total Return
Total ReturnS&P 500 Index: 6%
Total ReturnS&P 500 ESG Index: 11%
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CONNOR TESKEY
Our Long-Term Approach
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER
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Over the next five years…
…we are increasing our targeted annual equity deployment to $800M–1B
ConsistentApproach
ExpandedCapabilities
GrowingMarket
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Doing this through a consistent and balanced approach
CAPITAL ALLOCATION
• Deep value• Contrarian• Complex or large-scale transactions
OPERATIONAL APPROACH
• Long-term focus• Partnership approach• ESG-oriented• Perpetual improvement
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Value and growth through decarbonization
Sustainability Additionality Transition
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Sustainability | Preserve and enhance existing renewable assets
Sustainability Additionality Transition
Improved cash flows and de-risked investments through long-term sustainable operating principles
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Sustainability | A differentiated approach to ownership
Operating expertise
Ongoing investment
Strongly capitalized
Stable sponsor
Global standards
Social focus
Enhanced returns
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Sustainability | Not in the community, but part of the community
Maintaining a social license to operate is central to preserving capital, mitigating risk and creating long-term value
KIDWIND PROGRAMIRELAND
LA GUAJIRA WIND PROJECTCOLOMBIA
‘NAMGIS FIRST NATIONS PARTNERSHIP
CANADA
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Additionality | Accretively growing our assets
Sustainability Additionality Transition
Expanding and delivering our 18,000 MW development pipelineat premium returns
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Additionality | Enhancing our development capabilities
Local development teams across the globe
Delivery from concept to commercialization
Flexible commercial strategyfocused on relationships
Ability to manage large-scale projects
Advantage from global procurement platformNorth America Latam Asia Europe
202018 GW
20153 GW
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Additionality | Strong track record of development activities
46%
34%
4%
16%
North America Latam Asia Europe
2 GW
17%
47%
28%
8%
Solar Wind Hydro Storage & Other
2 GW
~$4Binvested
2 GWdeveloped
15–20% returns
50Mtrees planted
Note: 50 million trees planted is equivalent to 2 GW developed, which avoids approximately 3 million tons of CO2 annually.
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Additionality | Ramped up our solar development activities
2015 2020
Utility scale 0 GW 9 GW
C&I rooftop 0 GW 1 GW
Total solar pipeline 0 GW 10 GW
15–20%+ returns
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Additionality | Best-in-class carbon avoidance
Note: figures above equivalent to BEP’s development pipeline, which would avoid 23 million tons of CO2 annually.
5 MillionVehicles off theroad annually
100%Paris’ annual generation
100%CO2 generated by Apple or half of BP
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Transition | Accelerate energy transition initiatives
Sustainability Additionality Transition
Provide capital and solutions to drivecarbon reduction initiatives
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Transition | Investing in key sectors and businesses
Distributed Generation
Local businesses looking to
decarbonize
TransAlta Investment
Corporations seeking to transitionbusinesses
New Asset Classes
Green hydrogen and green
data centers
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Transition | Global partners in decarbonization
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We are the partner of choice to support governments and businesses in achieving their
decarbonization goals
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In summary
1Invest on a value basis
2Sustain
AddTransition
3Monetize mature assets
12–15% ReturnsLong-term Impact
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WYATT HARTLEY
Financial Update
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
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Our business is well positioned to continue to deliver solid growth through all economic cycles
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Underpinned by a strong balance sheet with ample liquidity
BBB+INVESTMENT
GRADE
~85%NON-RECOURSE
DEBT
14-yearAVERAGE
CORPORATE DEBT DURATION
~$3.4 billion of available liquidity
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Highly resilient cash flows
CONTRACTED 15-year average PPA term
DE-RISKED No single market >10%
DIVERSIFIED 600+ investment-grade counterparties
LIMITED FX EXPOSURE 75% fully hedged
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A strong track record of FFO per-unit growth
2010$0.72 FFO per unit
2020F~$2.00+ FFO
per unit
10+% CAGR
Note: 2020 FFO per unit reflects the last twelve months and is pro forma the TERP transaction.
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Proven resilience through the current global shutdown
~98%ASSET
AVAILABILITY
~$1BLIQUIDITY
ADDED
$2B+CAPITAL
DEPLOYED
ExecutedSTRATEGIC
MERGER
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Merger with TERP has many immediate benefits
Simplified ownership structure
Strengthens contract profile
Immediately cash accretive
Expands portfolio in North America and Western Europe
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Access to flexible and diverse sources of funding
Asset-level up-financings
Preferred equity and
corporate debt
Capital recycling
Funding plan does not require common equity issuances
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Leaders in sustainable finance
$50MSUSTAINABILITY-
LINKED LOAN
$2,500MPROJECT-LEVEL GREEN BONDS
$1,300MCORPORATE
GREEN BONDS
>$4BILLION
$200MPREFERRED SECURITIES
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Broadening our investor base
We completed the launch of BEPC, which has been well received by the market
Completed special distribution
Russell 2000/3000 and FTSE Global
Increased float through TERP
merger
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Growing development activities enhance the visibility of organic cash flow growth
over the next five years
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Target 6–11% FFO per-unit growth through operational levers
Embedded Inflation
Escalation1–2%
Expected Margin
Expansion2–4%
Development Pipeline
3–5%
FFO Per-Unit Growth
Potential6–11%
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Increased development activities secure growth
Development Pipeline
3–5%18,000 MW
• 3,500 MW commissioned• $90 million FFO annually• Executing on under-construction and
advanced-stage projects
2% annual FFO per-unit growth
• 3,500 MW additional development • Up to $135 million FFO annually• Delivering on up to 20% of our
extensive global development pipeline1–3% annual FFO per-unit growth
SECURED
TO BE DELIVERED
Note: megawatts are presented on a consolidated basis. Proportionate megawatts are 1,150 MW for secured growth and 1,700 MW for growth to be delivered. Assumes $0.8billion deployed for additional development at target FFO yields of ~23% and average funding costs of 5% for $135 million FFO net to BEP.
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1–2%
2–4%
3–5%
4–5%
0.70
1.20
1.70
2.20
2.70
3.20
2010 2020 InflationEscalation
MarginEnhancement
DevelopmentPipeline
Acquisitions¹ 2025
Enhanced visibility on cash flow growth
1. $3.7 billion deployed between development and M&A investments at target FFO yields of 10% to 11% and average funding costs of 5%.2. Slide reflects FFO per-unit.
10%+ FFO PER-UNIT GROWTH
10%+ CAGR
ORGANIC GROWTH6–11%
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In summary
We offer a high-quality distribution
Investment-grade balance sheet
Resilient cash flows
Access to diverse sources of capital
Visibility on 10%+ FFO per-unit growth
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Key Takeaways and Q&A
SACHIN SHAHCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
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Key takeaways
As decarbonization accelerates, our global business is well positioned
We invest and operate with a long-term view
We remain focused on delivering total returns of 12–15%
Our strong financial profile enables us to pursue growth
Q&A
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Notice to RecipientsAll amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise specified. Unless otherwise indicated,the statistical and financial data in this presentation is presented as of June 30, 2020,and on a consolidated basis.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD- LOOKING STATEMENTS
This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information, within themeaning of Canadian securities laws and “forward-looking statements” within themeaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, Section 21Eof the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, “safe harbor” provisions ofthe United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and in anyapplicable Canadian securities regulations, concerning the business and operations ofBrookfield Renewable. Forward-looking statements may include estimates, plans,expectations, opinions, forecasts, projections, guidance or other statements that arenot statements of fact. Forward-looking statements in this presentation includestatements regarding the quality of Brookfield Renewable’s assets and the resiliency ofthe cash flow they will generate, Brookfield Renewable’s anticipated financialperformance and payout ratio, future commissioning of assets and expected returnsfrom such assets, our target annual equity deployment, our target FFO per unitgrowth, contracted nature of our portfolio, technology diversification, acquisitionopportunities, expected completion of acquisitions, financing and refinancingopportunities, Brookfield Renewable Corporation’s (“BEPC”) eligibility for indexinclusion, BEPC’s ability to attract new investors as well as the future performance andprospects of BEPC and Brookfield Renewable, the prospects and benefits of thecombination of Brookfield Renewable and TerraForm Power, Inc. (“TERP”), includingcertain information regarding the combined company’s expected cash flow profile andliquidity, future energy prices and demand for electricity, economic recovery, achievinglong-term average generation, project development and capital expenditure costs,energy policies, economic growth, growth potential of the renewable asset class, thefuture growth prospects and distribution profile of Brookfield Renewable and BrookfieldRenewable’s access to capital. In some cases, forward-looking statements can beidentified by the use of words such as “plans”, “expects”, “scheduled”, “estimates”,“intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “potentially”, “tends”, “continue”, “attempts”, “likely”,“primarily”, “approximately”, “endeavours”, “pursues”, “strives”, “seeks”, “targets”,“believes”, or variations of such words and phrases, or statements that certain actions,events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “should”, “might” or “will” be taken, occur orbe achieved. Although we believe that our anticipated future results, performance orachievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements and informationin this presentation are based upon reasonable assumptions and expectations, wecannot assure you that such expectations will prove to have been correct. You shouldnot place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and information as suchstatements and information involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and otherfactors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differmaterially from anticipated future results, performance or achievement expressed orimplied by such forward-looking statements and information.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated orimplied by forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to changes tohydrology at our hydroelectric facilities, to wind conditions at our wind energy facilities,
to irradiance at our solar facilities or to weather generally, as a result of climate changeor otherwise, at any of our facilities; volatility in supply and demand in the energymarkets; our inability to re-negotiate or replace expiring PPAs on similar terms;increases in water rental costs (or similar fees) or changes to the regulation of watersupply; advances in technology that impair or eliminate the competitive advantage ofour projects; an increase in the amount of uncontracted generation in our portfolio;industry risks relating to the power markets in which we operate; the termination of, ora change to, the MRE balancing pool in Brazil; increased regulation of our operations;concessions and licenses expiring and not being renewed or replaced on similarterms; our real property rights for wind and solar renewable energy facilities beingadversely affected by the rights of lienholders and leaseholders that are superior tothose granted to us; increases in the cost of operating our plants; our failure to complywith conditions in, or our inability to maintain, governmental permits; equipmentfailures, including relating to wind turbines and solar panels; dam failures and the costsand potential liabilities associated with such failures; force majeure events; uninsurablelosses and higher insurance premiums; adverse changes in currency exchange ratesand our inability to effectively manage foreign currency exposure; availability andaccess to interconnection facilities and transmission systems; health, safety, securityand environmental risks; energy marketing risks; disputes, governmental andregulatory investigations and litigation; counterparties to our contracts not fulfilling theirobligations; the time and expense of enforcing contracts against non-performingcounter-parties and the uncertainty of success; our operations being affected by localcommunities; fraud, bribery, corruption, other illegal acts or inadequate or failedinternal processes or systems; some of our acquisitions may be of distressedcompanies, which may subject us to increased risks, including the incurrence of legalor other expenses; our reliance on computerized business systems, which couldexpose us to cyber-attacks; newly developed technologies in which we invest notperforming as anticipated; labor disruptions and economically unfavorable collectivebargaining agreements; our inability to finance our operations due to the status of thecapital markets; operating and financial restrictions imposed on us by our loan, debtand security agreements; changes to our credit ratings; our inability to identifysufficient investment opportunities and complete transactions; the growth of ourportfolio and our inability to realize the expected benefits of our transactions oracquisitions, including the TERP acquisition and the special distribution of BEPCshares; our inability to develop greenfield projects or find new sites suitable for thedevelopment of greenfield projects; delays, cost overruns and other problemsassociated with the construction and operation of generating facilities and risksassociated with the arrangements we enter into with communities and joint venturepartners; Brookfield Asset Management’s election not to source acquisitionopportunities for us and our lack of access to all renewable power acquisitions thatBrookfield Asset Management identifies, including by reason of conflicts of interest; wedo not have control over all our operations or investments; political instability orchanges in government policy; foreign laws or regulation to which we become subjectas a result of future acquisitions in new markets; changes to government policies thatprovide incentives for renewable energy; a decline in the value of our investments insecurities, including publicly traded securities of other companies; we are not subjectto the same disclosure requirements as a U.S. domestic issuer; the separation ofeconomic interest from control within our organizational structure; future sales andissuances of our LP Units, preferred limited partnership units or securities
exchangeable for LP Units, or the perception of such sales or issuances, coulddepress the trading price of the LP Units, preferred limited partnership units orsecurities exchangeable for LP Units; the incurrence of debt at multiple levels withinour organizational structure; being deemed an “investment company” under the U.S.Investment Company Act of 1940; the effectiveness of our internal controls overfinancial reporting; our dependence on Brookfield Asset Management and BrookfieldAsset Management’s significant influence over us; the departure of some or all ofBrookfield Asset Management’s key professionals; changes in how Brookfield AssetManagement elects to hold its ownership interests in Brookfield Renewable; BrookfieldAsset Management acting in a way that is not in the best interests of BrookfieldRenewable or its unitholders; and the severity, duration and spread of the COVID-19outbreak, as well as the direct and indirect impacts that the virus may have.
We caution that the foregoing list of important factors that may affect future results isnot exhaustive. The forward-looking statements represent our views as of the date ofthis presentation and should not be relied upon as representing our views as of anysubsequent date. While we anticipate that subsequent events and developments maycause our views to change, we disclaim any obligation to update the forward-lookingstatements, other than as required by applicable law. For further information on theseknown and unknown risks, please see “Risk Factors” included in our Form 20-F andthe other risks and factors that are described therein.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING USE OF NON-IFRS MEASURES
This presentation contains references to financial metrics that are not calculated inaccordance with, and do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by,International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”). We believe such non-IFRSmeasures including, but not limited to, funds from operations (“FFO”) and FFO perunit, are useful supplemental measures that may assist investors and others inassessing our financial performance and the financial performance of our subsidiaries.As these non-IFRS measures are not generally accepted accounting measures underIFRS, references to FFO and FFO per unit, as examples, are therefore unlikely to becomparable to similar measures presented by other issuers and entities. These non-IFRS measures have limitations as analytical tools. They should not be considered asthe sole measure of our performance and should not be considered in isolation from,or as a substitute for, analysis of our financial statements prepared in accordance withIFRS. For a reconciliation of FFO and FFO per Unit to the most directly comparableIFRS measure, please see “Financial Performance Review on ProportionateInformation – Reconciliation of Non-IFRS Measures” included in our annual report onForm 20-F and “Part 4 - Financial Performance Review on Proportionate Information –Reconciliation of non-IFRS measures” in our management’s discussion and analysisfor the three and six months ended June 30, 2020.
References to Brookfield Renewable are to Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.together with its subsidiary and operating entities, including BEPC, unless the contextreflects otherwise.
Brookfield Renewable
INVESTOR DAYSEPTEMBER 24, 2020