Benefits of JODI for OPEC A focus on natural gas data · natural gas forecasting accuracy. •...

Presented by:

JODI-Gas Information SessionMalabo, 26 November 2019

Benefits of JODI for OPECA focus on natural gas data

OPEC Secretariat

© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 2

This Presentation is intended solely for the use of OPEC and may be legally privileged and/orconfidential. Any unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this Presentation or any parts of it or itsattachment(s) by any unintended recipient is strictly prohibited. If you have received this Presentation inerror, please immediately return or destroy it. The OPEC Secretariat does not warrant or assume anyliability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information contained inthis Presentation. Nothing in this Presentation shall be construed as interpreting or modifying any legalobligations under any agreement, treaty, law or other texts; or expressing any legal opinions or havingprobative legal value in any proceedings.

Disclaimer


• OPEC’s contribution to JODI

• JODI natural gas data & their importance for OPEC

• JODI natural gas data usage in OPEC research

• Interaction between energy commodities & data transparency

• Conclusion

Outline


JODI: A manifestation of the producer-consumer dialogue

7th IEF Meeting in Riyadh 2000• OPEC as one of the

participating organizations

• Strong support from the very early days of the Initiative

• Efforts to increase oil data transparency for the benefit of producers & consumers

Launching of Joint Oil Data Exercise (JODE) - 2001• Designing the original

oil data questionnaire a challenge

• Substantial contribution to the methodology & overall design

• OPEC - one of the founder organizations

November 2005 (Saudi Arabia): Launch of JODI world oil database

March 2012 (Kuwait): Launch of the extended JODI world oil database

May 2014 (Moscow): Launch of JODI world gas database


OPEC’s strong support to JODI continuous

Training workshops

Technical cooperation

Capacity building Dialogue


OPEC MCs are key players in natural gas

58173

72676

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

billion scu m OPEC proven natural gas reserves

2018: 35% of total world1.7

16.2

0

5

10

15

20

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018

%OPEC marketed natural gas production

Share to total world production

Steady increase in production

217

547

200

300

400

500

600

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

billion scu m OPEC natural gas demand

Strong domestic consumption;to a great extent substitution for oil

Source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin (ASB) 2019

73

69

6065707580859095

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

billion scu m OPEC natural gas net exports

Continuous net exporter


• Oil market assessment requires assessment of natural gas markets; increasing interaction also with other commodities

Natural gas strongly interacts with oil…

34%

24%

27%

4%7%

4%

World energy demand by energy commodity in 2018

Oil Natural Gas CoalNuclear Hydro electric Renewables

Source: OPEC Secretariat & BP Statistical Energy Review 2019

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

mtoemtoe World natural gas & NGLs production

Natural gas NGLs (right axis)

Source: OPEC Secretariat


…both in primary & secondary side

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Share of total world NGLs in natural gas production

Source: OPEC Secretariat

• Natural gas & oil interaction– Primary side (NGLs)– Secondary side (all products,

specifically the lighter, LPG, naphtha)– Petrochemical industry

62

3 3 1

Production of petroleum products Shares derived from natural gas

LPG/NGLsNaphthaGasolineDiesel


JODI is complementary for OPEC research

OPEC RESEARCH• Pioneer in energy data collection• Data driven research & decision

making• Comprehensive information system

to support decisions

JODI• Essential for energy data transparency• Official freely accessible country data• Oil & natural gas fundamental flows• Wide coverage of oil & natural gas flows • Technical metadata


JODI oil is very rich in coverage

Official data from 100+ countries

Short reporting lag

Coverage of all oil flows

Coverage of main oil products

Complete oil balance

General definitions/guidelines

Manuals

Metadata

• Unique information, not accessible elsewhere– NGLs.– Naphtha.– Direct use.


JODI gas provides most recent official data and is continuously improving

Coverage expansion

Natural gas definitions manual

Improvements in data quality

Release of natural gas data 2014

Natural gas conference 4-5 June 2013

Focus on data quality (manual)

Launch of data collection (end 2012)

• 85+ countries

• All main flows

• Monthly gas balance

• Metadata

• Definitions

• Manuals

• As for oil, the JODI natural gas database is an important data source and utilized for updating natural gas production, demand and trade information;

• There are industry reference data sources including BPstatistics, Cedigaz, IEA statistics and EIA statistics, but

• None of these natural gas data sources provide monthly data.


JODI data used by OPEC to assess natural gas markets

• Natural gas production: Natural gas production forecasts based on historical consumption data; as interaction between natural gas and oil is significant, oil forecasting accuracy depends partly also on natural gas forecasting accuracy.

• Natural gas demand: Natural gas demand forecast is based on adding growth projections to an existing baseline – similar issues as for natural gas production.

• Natural gas demand for electricity generation: Natural gas serves as substitution for residual fuel and crude direct use.

• Natural gas trade: Natural gas trade flows; in particular LNG and pipeline trade.

• Natural gas stocks: Inventories reflect interaction between supply and demand.

For all the above flows, JODI provides the most recent information – on monthly basis.


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

USA

Chi

naC

anad

aJa

pan

Ger

man

yU

KIta

lyEg

ypt

Aus

tral

iaIn

dia

Kor

eaTu

rkey

Net

herla

nds

Alg

eria

Mex

ico

Qat

arFr

ance

Spai

nU

krai

neB

ahra

inC

hine

se T

aipe

iPo

land

Bel

arus

Vene

zuel

a

bl s cu m Jan-19 to Aug-19 natural gas demand by country

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

USA

Rus

sia

Can

ada

Chi

naA

ustr

alia

Nor

way

Alg

eria

Mal

aysi

aEg

ypt

Indo

nesi

aN

iger

iaU

krai

neTh

aila

ndN

ethe

rland

sTr

inid

ad Iraq

Indi

aM

exic

oB

ahra

inA

zerb

aija

nVe

nezu

ela

Ukr

aine

Kuw

ait

Bol

ivia

bl s cu m Jan-19 to Aug-19 natural gas production by country

85

232119

18

119

6 5

4 4 3 333222 11Aug-19 closing stocks

USA GermanyNetherlands CanadaItaly FranceAustria HungaryJapan KoreaSlovakia Czech RepPoland SpainTurkey AzerbaijanDenmark UKLatvia Russia

Source: JODI natural gas world database



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Jan-

18

Feb-

18

Mar

-18

Apr

-18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

m s cu m Natural gas demand for electricity generation by Non-OECD country

Algeria Azerbaijan Bahrain Belarus Bolivia BruneiBulgaria Chinese Taipei Croatia Ecuador Egypt Equatorial GuineaGeorgia Hong Kong China India Indonesia Iran IraqKuwait Malta Moldova Morocco Nigeria PhilippinesSouth Africa Thailand Trinidad/Tobago Tunisia Venezuela




0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr-1

9

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug-

19

m s cu m LNG trade by country

Algeria Australia BelgiumEgypt Equatorial Guinea NetherlandsNigeria Norway QatarTrinidad USA

0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr-1

9

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug-

19

m s cu m Pipeline trade by country

Algeria Austria Belgium BoliviaCanada China Czech Rep. FranceGermany Indonesia Lithuania NetherlandsNigeria Norway Poland QatarRussia Slovakia Switzerland UKUSA




Interaction between energy commodities

Oil

Natural Gas

CoalRenewables

Oil

Gas

Coal

Renew.

Nuclear

Hydro• Natural gas & oil:

− Well established JODI initiatives− Monthly detailed data available

• Coal: Need for more granular data identified− Work already established within JODI

• Other energy commodities: Similarly important

Better understanding of energy transition when data transparency is applied to all energy commodities


Looking ahead: more data required …

Oil & gas trade by origin/destination

International bunkers, petchem feedstocks

More products – asphalt, coke, lubricants

Other energy commoditiesLNG trade by destination


Conclusion

• JODI oil & gas databases are widely used within the industry.

• JODI is the central platform & benchmark for official energy data.

• Further success of the Initiative will strongly depend on the− Usability, relevance & accuracy of available energy information− Cooperation between all relevant energy market players – countries, organizations

and the industry.

• Ultimate goal is to achieve global energy markets data transparency.

• OPEC & its Member Countries will continue their strong commitment towards JODI, particularly focusing on oil & gas data quality as well as supporting the expansion of the Initiative to cover other energy commodities.

www.opec.org

Thank You.

JODI-Gas Information SessionMalabo, 26 November 2019

Benefits of JODI for OPEC A focus on natural gas data · natural gas forecasting accuracy. •...

Documents

Transcript of Benefits of JODI for OPEC A focus on natural gas data · natural gas forecasting accuracy. •...