Benchmarking options for the effective achievement of the ...€¦ · Benchmarking options, IAEE...
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Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, 5.9.2017, Slide 1
IAEE 2017
Authors: Lukas Liebmann, Christoph Zehetner, Gustav Resch
Energy Economics Group, Vienna University of Technology
Contact:
Web: http://eeg.tuwien.ac.at
Email: [email protected]
Benchmarking options for the effective
achievement of the renewable energy
target of the EU energy strategy by 2030
Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, 5.9.2017, Slide 2
Research Questions
(1) What are benchmark options needed for?
(2) What is the target for the share of renewable energies in the final energy
consumption of different benchmark options for individual EU Member States to
ensure the achievement of the 27% target of the EU?
(3) What possible bandwidths for the share of renewable energies in gross energy
consumption are given by the different benchmark options?
(4) What is the expected net increase in RES deployment between 2020 and 2030?
Introduction
Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, 5.9.2017, Slide 3
2030 Climate & energy framework
Political framework
27% to 30% increase in energy efficiency
At least 27% RES share in gross final energy consumption
At least 27% RES share in gross final energy consumption
Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, 5.9.2017, Slide 4
Framing the obstacles
• According to current scenarios (PRIMES Reference 2016) the EU would reach a
renewable share of 24.3% by 2030. This result shows that the EU would not meet
the set target for 2030.
• There are barriers to achieve the target of at least 27% in a “business as usual"
scenario:
• Missing from cost-effectiveness
• Imperfect markets
• Update of the legal framework
• Lack of citizen participation
Political framework
Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, 5.9.2017, Slide 5
Mechanism to close the „ambition gap“
Political framework
Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, 5.9.2017, Slide 6
Pledging and Compensation Mechanisms - Benchmarks Needs?
• Benchmarks would enable the European Commission to provide "guidance on
sufficiently ambitious commitments by EU Member States and to enable them to
assess the contribution that individual Member States need to achieve the EU
objective“
• Benchmarks would
• provide an indicator for Member States for a 'fair contribution' to the overall
EU objective
• In order to implement a gaps-filling mechanism and associated financial
payments from Member States in case of not achieving the overall EU target
• Benchmarking options are possible on the basis of different indicators
Political framework
Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, 5.9.2017, Slide 7
Benchmark according to the logic of the RD 2020
50% of the necessary effort is distributed globally and 50% by means of GDP
weighting
Allocation method with moderate differences between Member States
The GDP-based approach does not always lead to the expected results
Results
27%
41%
20%
21% 20%
19%
25%
39%
30%
25%27%
44%
30%
26%
19%
24%24%
29%
18%
47%
18%
21%20%
38%
29%
56%
31%
20%23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
EU 2
8
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE EL ES FI FR HR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL PL
PT
RO SE SI SK UKEU
202
0 R
ES t
arge
ts p
er
cou
ntr
y an
d t
he
ad
dit
ion
al
RES
sh
are
ne
ed
ed
to m
ee
t 203
0 ta
rge
t (R
ED 2
020
calc
ula
tio
n a
pp
roac
h)
RD2020 approach 2020 targets 2015 RES shares
Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, 5.9.2017, Slide 8
* Vorläufige Ergebnisse aus IMPACT ASSESSMENT SWD(2016) 418 final
Benchmark based on the national potential for renewable energies
Bandwidths result from European least-cost scenarios – The min-max spread is based
on a sensitivity analysis of nonfinancial barriers, energy consumption and the possible
promotion of biofuels
High burden for economically weaker countries
27%
45%
18%
28%
18% 18%
25%
38% 39%
28% 27%
46%
34%
39%
19%
24% 25%
36%
11%
48%
18% 19%
23%
44%
34%
55%
33%
19% 19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
EU 2
8
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE EL ES FI FR HR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL PL
PT
RO SE SI SK UKEU
202
0 R
ES t
arge
ts p
er
cou
ntr
y an
d t
he
ad
dit
ion
al
RES
sh
are
ne
ed
ed
to m
ee
t 203
0 ta
rge
t (R
ED 2
020
calc
ula
tio
n a
pp
roac
h)
RES Potential max RES Potential min 2020 targets 2015 RES shares
Results
Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, 5.9.2017, Slide 9
The “alternative approach” described in the Impact Assessment
The “alternative approach” described in the Impact Assessment implicitly takes the potential
availability of renewables resources into consideration by including the size of the country as
a determining parameter in addition to GDP and equal sharing (“flat rate”).
More precisely, these impact factors are weighted differently in the RES target allocation –
i.e. the allocation is based on 50% flat-rate, 25% GDP and 25% land area per capita.
-0,3%
-1,0%
3,7%
0,9%
0,4%
-1,0%-1,2%
4,6%
1,7%
0,6%
4,6%
-0,3%
2,5%
1,4%
0,2%
-0,6%
4,3%
-1,1%
5,1%
-2,0%
-1,3%
0,9% 0,8%
2,9%
3,6%
0,6% 0,8%
-1,2%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK
De
viat
ion
s o
f Are
a (T
ota
l) b
en
chm
ark
com
par
ed
to
RD
2020
ap
pro
ach
Results
Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, 5.9.2017, Slide 10
Needed net deployment of RES between 2020 and 2030
The required increase in net additional RES deployment is significantly higher if we assume an
RES target of 30% instead of 27%. However, even with a 30% RES target, this would result in
lower or comparable net renewables increase in 2020-2030 compared to 2010-2020 for most
Member States.
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE EL ES FI FR HR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL PL
PT
RO SE SI SK UK
Ne
ed
ed
ne
t de
plo
yme
nt o
f RES
to m
ee
t th
e 2
030
targ
et a
cco
rdin
g th
e 2
020
logi
c fo
r 27
% a
nd
30%
e
xpre
sse
d in
mto
e
2020 logic (30%) 2020 logic (27%) Net increase 2005-2015 Net increase 2010-2020
Results
Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, 5.9.2017, Slide 11
Needed net deployment of RES between 2020 and 2030 relative to
the GFEC of 2015
The required increase in net additional RES deployment expressed in RES per gross final
energy consumption (GFEC) of 2015
-0,1
-0,1
0,0
0,1
0,1
0,2
EU 2
8
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE EL ES FI FR HR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL PL
PT
RO SE SI SK UK
Ne
ed
ed
ne
t de
plo
yme
nt o
f RES
to m
ee
t th
e 2
030
targ
et a
cco
rdin
g th
e 2
020
logi
c fo
r 27
% a
nd
30%
e
xpre
sse
d in
mto
e R
ES p
er m
toe
GFE
C o
f 201
5
2020 logic (30%) 2020 logic (27%) Net increase 2005-2015 Net increase 2010-2020
Results
Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, 5.9.2017, Slide 12
• Benchmarks can guide the Member States through the pledging process and form
the basis for gap-filling mechanism
• A “fair and efficient" approach to ensure political feasibility (depending on the
gap between the benchmarks of the Member States)
• Contrary benchmarks in a GDP and a potential-based benchmarking approach
deliver a valid argument for regional cooperation
• Assuming a 30% energy efficiency target, an EU RES-target of 30% would result in
lower or comparable net renewables increase in 2020-2030 compared to the 2010-
2020 effort for most Member States
Conclusions
Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, 5.9.2017, Slide 13
Lukas Liebmann
E-Mail: [email protected] Telefon: +43-1-58801-370 355
Energy Economics Group (EEG), Vienna University of Technology
Gußhausstraße 25-29/E370-3, A-1040 Vienna, Austria
http://eeg.tuwien.ac.at
Thank you for your attention!
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