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    Critical Feasibility Study

    Plymouth City Centre Renewable Energy

    Ben Pitcher

    10205005

    Connecting Sustainable Practices

    ARCH 410

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    Abstract

    This Feasibility Study investigates the potential of Photo-Voltaicmodules as a Sustainable energy source for Plymouth City Centre(UK). It nds that the City Centre is only able to create below 10%of its required power through PV within its own geography. The

    study analyses the environmental impacts of PV, the requiredinfrastructure and the potential implementation of an ESCo

    (Energy Services Company) by Plymouth City Council.

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    The Situation

    This study assesses Plymouth City Centres electrical energy dependency on fossil fuels and its current resilience strategies to the imminentpeak oil crisis.

    Herbert Girardet in his book Creating Sustainable Cities, denes a Sustainable City as the following:

    organised so as to enable all its citizens to meet their own needs and to enhance their well-being without damaging the naturalworld or endangering the living conditions of other people, now or in the future.

    (Herbert Girardet, 2011: 13)

    Plymouth could potentially become a sustainable city by nding means of producing sufcient energy for its own needs from sustainablesources.

    Currently the City Centre alone uses 15 GWh/yr for heating and 32 GWh/yr electrical. (The electrical load is much higher than the heatingload in the city centre because of the cooling requirements caused by a mainly retail and ofce mix.), (CSE, 2010), (n.b. For the purpose of

    later calculations and the fact that heating can potentially be sourced from electrical energy - heating and electrical will be consideredas one joint gure of 47GWh/yr).

    Plymouth is not alone in using vast quantities of energy, it is a global issue with huge planetary implications. The continuous combustion offossil fuels and the creation of carbon dioxide in huge quantities is altering the atmosphere which is essential for planetary stability.

    Fossil fuels are a nite resource. Modern society requires huge volumes of energy and the dominant source is extracted oil and gas. If fossilfuels were to run out in the close future, society has not yet created the necessary infrastructure to resiliently support its current standardof living.

    There presently exist several main methods of generating energy without the combustion of fossil fuels, this is often referred to as

    sustainable energy generation, however the term sustainable is used loosely, only considering that the source providing the energyis theoretically unlimited e.g. the sun, however not considering the embodied energy and materials required to create the (usually verytechnologically, chemically and metallurgically complex) sustainable products, the often rare and nite resources generally requireextensive transportation and destructive gathering methods which destroy environments and require vast amounts of energy themselves.Also the majority of the energy sources are unpredictable in their energy delivery, with the exception of tidal power and hydroelectricgeneration (although potentially affected by drought), and cannot always generate the necessary energy when immediately required,storing of energy, particularly electrical energy requires capacitors and batteries, both of which require vast quantities of planet damagingresources to create.

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    The Options

    The Centre for Sustainable Energy (CSE) summarises the potential of Biomass energy, Windpower, Urban Waste CHP (Combined Heat and Power), and Solar Power generationmethods as the following:

    The widespread implementation of biomass energy in the form of Woodfuelwould need to draw upon the resources of neighbouring authorities, and theestablishment of energy crops is an important resource in this respect. Fuel supplychains currently remain limited in Devon and throughout the region, althoughit is expected that emerging initiatives will stimulate the market and hence theproduction of Woodfuel. Woodfuel heating can be implemented in a wide varietyof applications, from individual households to large scale community heatingnetworks. Until recently, biomass combined heat and power (CHP) has only beenviable at medium to large-scale applications. Smaller scale systems, however, arenow appearing on the market. Wind power is limited in Plymouth due to lower wind speeds typical of urban areas,planning constraints in residential areas or due to military objections/ight pathissues. Implementation would mostly be limited to small or medium-scale turbinesin open areas or industrial/commercial estates, or rooftop micro-scale devices. Plymouths urban waste stream is a signicant resource and is sufcient to supportEnergy from Waste technologies, providing a suitable heat load can be identiedto justify a CHP plant. In the short term, micro-renewables, such as solar PV, solar water heating, heatpumps, small-scale wood heating and small-scale/rooftop wind are more likely tobe employed in relation to on-site renewables policy compliance within residentialdevelopments. Larger scale wind and/or the development of more extensivebiomass supply chains are likely to be required for low or zero carbon developments.

    (CSE, 2007)

    Solar energy is something that, as identied by the CSE, is a potential quick-turnaroundsolution that has been considered and is currently being implemented by the city, fundedby government renewable energy funds, however currently the impact is relativelyinsignicant on the scale of the city.

    UK Solar Irradiance Map, Smart Solar SW (2010)

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    The Calculated Quantities

    In order to assess the viability of the City Centre of Plymouth becoming self-sufcient for its energy requirements - as per Girardet - itis necessary to calculate the volume of PV panels required. Usually Solar panels are calculated to a level around their peak output,however the below calculations consider the system losses through geographical location and reect the realistic quantities requiredto produce a suitable output.

    (Full calculations and reasoning in Appendix under Quantity Calculations)

    The following tables are summaries of 3 calculated options with the project output and implications summarised after each. The AverageOptimum Outputs are based upon expected returns during peak summer when solar gain is highest and vice versa for the AverageMinimum Outputs, the % Average Yearly Contribution is a mean average of the two.

    Option 1 would mean that at peak output the panels could generate enough output to power the city centre, however for the majority

    of the year, it would be insufcient.

    Option 1 Summary:

    117,920 Modules Placed at Optimum angle (38 degrees) to Optimum Azimuth (0 degrees).

    Average Optimum Output: 128,680 kWh/day % of Average City Requirement: 100%Average Minimum Output: 37,290 kWh/day % of Average City Requirements: 29%

    % Average Yearly Contribution 65%

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    Option 2 Summary:

    406,824 Modules Placed at Optimum angle (38 degrees) to Optimum Azimuth (0 degrees).

    Average Optimum Output: 443,946 kWh/day % of Average City Requirement: 345%

    Average Minimum Output: 128,680 kWh/day % of Average City Requirements: 100%

    % Average Yearly Contribution 223%

    Option 3 Summary:

    262,372 Modules Placed at Optimum angle (38 degrees) to Optimum Azimuth (0 degrees).

    Average Optimum Output: 286,313 kWh/day % of Average City Requirement: 223%Average Minimum Output: 82,985 kWh/day % of Average City Requirements: 65%

    % Average Yearly Contribution 100%

    Option 2 would mean that the average minimum output of panels would be enough to support the whole City centre and for the majorityof the year the panels would produce saleable excess energy.

    Option 3 would be a balance of Options 1 and 2 where 50% of the time the panels would produce excess saleable energy and 50% of thetime they would produce less than sufcient energy.

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    The Spatial Requirements

    Evidently installing up to 406,824 modules will require a lot of roof space. Each average 60-cell module will be taken to be 1650 x 990mm requiring 25mm gap for installation fabrication. (Yingli Solar, 2014). Each module will be considered to require a total area of 1.7square metres. (Flat rooves require approximately 50% more space due to the available mounting systems)

    Option 1 would thus require:200464 square metres (448m x 448m)

    Option 2 would thus require:691601 square metres (832m x 832m)

    Option 3 would thus require:446032 square metres (668m x 668m)

    The next task is to overview and assess the available commercial, residential, and public owned spaces that are appropriate for panels:

    Option 1

    Option 3

    Option 2

    The graphic to the right shows, usingGoogle Maps (2014) that the idea ofthe volume of panels for Option 1, 2,or 3 (represented volumetrically assquares beside an identically scaledmap) tting in the area of the CityCentre (ringed in red) is not feasibleconsidering relative roof space.As such, it can be immediately

    understood that using the currentquantities of energy is not sustainablethrough the use of PV panels.

    Google Maps, 2014, Plymouth (Edited by Author)

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    Google Maps, 2014, Plymouth (Edited by Author)

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    The graphic on the opposite page claries in further detail, using Google Maps (2014) the potential available roof-space (highlighted ingreen) in the City Centre, this gives a vague idea to reect upon the previous graphic to demonstrate roof space per unit area availablein the city and highlights the fact that the City Centre is unable to sustain its own energy requirements through panels mounted withinits area, and that there is a need to install panels across the rest of the City.

    The graphic was created through studying each roof individually and marking as appropriate, this is a time consuming method,although generally accurate, however increasingly accurate mapping software is now appearing that is able to automatically mapand assess rooves and array size (as demonstrated overleaf) with higher levels of accuracy also performing all the calculations relatedto expected yields, e.g. the Mapdwell software developed with Cambridge University in Boston, America. (Mapdwell, 2012). Also in themore local city of Bristol, where they are currently attempting to implement an Energy Supply Company (ESCo) for the city, they havehad a software made especially for the purpose of identifying suitable roof-spaces in the city for solar installations (Maps.Bristol, 2013).

    Such software could be benecial for the city of Plymouth to invest in should it consider encouraging city-wide installations.

    Using the volumetric roof-space calculations as above it is possible to estimate that the City Centre could support around 12,000 PVmodules at best achieving only around 10% of Option 1 and less than 3% of Option 2.

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    For Options 1 and 3 (that at some point in their daytime yields are expected to fall below the required yield necessary for fully poweringthe city centre), due to their being no current energy storage system available to store peak generation for months of low solarirradiation, the alternative back-up sources are generally fossil fuel based such as the aforementioned diesel generator plant.

    For a large commercial scale, requiring long-term energy storage, the city could look into large scale capacitors, these could perhapsbe created using the readily available seawater as an electrolytic solution. (Electronics Point, 2012).

    With regards to maintenance, Solar PV is relatively straightforward, with no moving parts involved the main source of maintenance isto ensure the panels are clean. Panels tted at an angle self-clean with rainwater. Most installers offer warranties with their work thatcover any technical failures in the system. (Energy Saving Trust, 2014).

    Plymouth has already taken into consideration that renewable energy sources are not always able to deliver energy upon demand asstated by Merlin Hyman of Regen SW:

    "There is going to be a need for back-up generation, whether it's for nuclear power, coal power or renewables.

    (BBC News Devon, 2013)

    This was stated in concurrence to a statement by Fulcrum Power:

    "Energy uctuations are predicted to become greater with the advent of unpredictable renewable generation such as solar andwind".

    (BBC News Devon, 2013)

    As such has used this is used as a reason to justify the installation of 52 diesel generators in the North-West of Plymouth. (Run andmanaged by Fulcrum Power). Granted planning permission on 15/10/2013 (Plymouth City Council, 2013), the facility will be able toproduce 20MW of energy from 1.1 million litres of diesel per year. However it is not a renewable solution as it still runs on fossil fuels andis questionably unnecessary due to the current lack of renewable energy sources. Running at full capacity 24/7 365 days a year, thisfacility could generate up to 175GWh. Sufcient to power the majority of the entire city although not at peak demands (BBC NewsDevon, 2013), this in combination with a sustainable energy source could provide a promising solution. The choice of the generators torun on diesel is also a good decision as the potential for running the facility on carbon neutral bio-diesel is a future option. Fulcrum chiefexecutive Paul Lazarevic said:

    "the company would prefer to burn bio-diesel and will look to do so if possible".

    (BBC News Devon, 2013).

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    The Implementation

    It is clearly evident that the number of panels that the city centre could actually install is too few to support its needs, however potentiallythe power required by the City Centre, and the vast volume of panels could be supported should the panels be spread out across therooves of the rest of the residential and commercial city. This could allow the lower energy using residential houses to produce excessenergy and sell it to the commercial City Centre whilst providing energy for their own needs too. This would upscale the array to a city

    scale and consider city-wide energy production and consumption.

    It would be better for the City Centre to purchase solar energy from the locality (to reduce system losses through the National Grid)even if not specically over its own geographical area or under its personal ownership - whoever owns and prots from the panels isirrelevant in the scheme of producing sustainable energy. This can potentially be achieved by Plymouth City Council creating an ESCo-Energy Services Company.

    An ESCo would require Plymouth City Council to set-up its own electricity company (similar to that adopted by Woking Council in1991 (BFC Solutions, 2014)), potentially working in conjunction with Plymouth based energy company Fulcrum Power, to buy and sellthe excess energy from residential and commercial systems and redistribute it to the rest of the city to suit displaced demand. This inconjunction with the potential array over the City Centre, though insufcient to supply demand alone, could multiply out to a city-widepower supply.

    (Further details R.E. ESCo set-ups included in the Appendix)

    The same conclusion was reached by I.C.E. (UK) (2010), they also published a Feasibility report founded upon a district heating scheme,primarily aimed at Public owned buildings in the City Centre, Derriford and Devonport, to be initially combined with the DevonportIncinerator project (MVV, 2012). The I.C.E. recommend that the MoD (one of the main energy users in the city) and PCC partner (with

    PCC as the point of contact) in the ESCo with the potential of additional 3rd party connections.

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    Graph to explain how commercialand residential energy usage pat-terns are generally fairly inverse and

    demand could be spread relativelyequally between them.(Graph by Author - Not to scale)

    Average Demand

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    Conclusion

    In summary of this Feasibility Study and reecting Upon Herbert Girardet and McDonough & Braungart:

    - The City Centre cannot currently support its existing energy demand through solar PV within its own geography - so fails to meet itsown needs as required in Girardets model, although potentially could be achieved with greater permissible geography.

    - The Girardet model could only be possible within its own geography if the City Centre becomes between 90 and 97% more energyefcient which is a completely unrealistic target and difcult to achieve without still causing damage environmentally - as notedby McDonough and Braungart - however reducing energy usage should still be strived towards but should be done with care andconsideration not to simply displace the issues.

    The only realistic way that PV could be used as a sustainable energy supply in Plymouth is if it is spread across the whole city andpotentially further - on residential and commercial properties, which can be most viably achieved through the creation of an ESCo byPlymouth City Council.

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    Appendix EU GIS SUmmary

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    Appendix

    Quantity Calculations

    As the City Centre uses 15 GWh/yr for heating and 32 GWh/yr according to the 2010, CSE study, when calculated to Megawatts ([47GWx 1,000] = 47,000MW / [365 x 24]), the required output average is 5.36MW (Average of 128,680 kWh/day).

    Taking an average modern Multicrystalline panel with a peak output of 250W, the estimated number of panels running at peak performancewould be (5360000W/250W) = 21,440 Modules.

    However this does not take into consideration the estimated efciency of the geographical area the panels are not at peak performance24/7 365 days a year. Using the EU regulated GIS (Geographical Information System), (JRC European Commission, 2013) and selectingCrystalline Silicon module type, accessing the Climate-SAF PVGIS database, entering 5360kWp installed output, leaving standard estimatedsystem losses at 14%, free-mounted modules, sloped at optimum angle and azimuth (See Appendix), the system would be expected to

    produce the following energy gures:

    The table shows that in Plymouth the panels at peak output on an average June day produce 23,400kWh per day, where the requiredaverage energy requirement is 128,680kWh per day. Essentially 21,440 modules at peak performance could only supply a fraction of thepower, the city centre would require 5.5 times the number of modules: 117,920. (Option 1)

    Month Average Daily Production (kWh)

    Jan 7090Feb 10600Mar 16700Apr 22300May 22700Jun 23400Jul 21500Aug 20300Sep 18700

    (Table summarised from CSE online Calculator, Full

    document in Appendix)

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    Even with 117,920 modules, that would only completely supply the required energy for the month of June, even with 5.5 times Decembers6780kWh (37290kWh), this falls needs to be multiplied 3.45 times to supply sufcient energy at the point of lowest generation throughoutthe year (406,824 modules). This would mean that the modules would produce more energy than required throughout the majority of theyear and would be able to supply vast excess amounts to the rest of the grid (Option 2).

    Option 1 Summary:

    117,920 Modules Placed at Optimum angle (38 degrees) to Optimum Azimuth (0 degrees).Average Optimum Output: 128,680kWh/day % of Average City Requirement: 100%Average Minimum Output: 37,290kWh/day % of Average City Requirements: 29%% Average Yearly Contribution 65%

    Option 2 Summary:

    406,824 Modules Placed at Optimum angle (38 degrees) to Optimum Azimuth (0 degrees).Average Optimum Output: 443,946kWh/day % of Average City Requirement: 345%Average Minimum Output: 128,680kWh/day % of Average City Requirement: 100%% Average Yearly Contribution 223%

    The Percentage Average Yearly Contributions suggest that in order to strike a balance at 100% Average a third option may be considered.This can be calculated by nding the mean average between Option 1 and Option 2.

    Option 3 Summary:

    262,372 Modules Placed at Optimum angle (38 degrees) to Optimum Azimuth (0 degrees).Average Optimum Output: 286,313kWh/day % of Average City Requirement: 223%Average Minimum Output: 82,985kWh/day % of Average City Requirements: 65%% Average Yearly Contribution 100%

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    Appendix

    ESCo Implementation

    To set-up an ESCo in Plymouth would require additional infrastructure, Private wire connections with metering to LV switchgear in largerbuildings, small local district systems to be set-up as demand requires and metered to residential houses. As well as load equalizing

    capacitors and energy storage systems to store excess yields for overnight output, however this as previously noted can be included inindividual home invertors.

    To reduce initial outlay costs, connections should be created as demand requires. The ESCo should potentially be set up in partnershipwith Fulcrum Power, so as to have a large initial electrical output that can be reduced as the solar yield increases.

    Bristol has recently received 2.5million in start-up funding from the European Investment Bank (EIB, 2012) to meet most of the developmentrequirements for a citywide ESCo that involves major investment into solar energy generation. Plymouth should be eligible for similarfunding.

    The ESCo would be arranged with the following objectives:

    1. Technical delivery of the implemented solutions;2. Providing nance;3. Providing low carbon energy to end consumers, without a green premium; and4. Implementing low carbon technologies to compliant LA carbon reduction programme(s).

    (I.C.E. (UK), 2010)

    Potential issues with the ESCo scheme proposed lie mainly with the thermal network proposed by I.C.E where planning applications areoften more difcult to acquire than electrical connection points. An additional issue is with the limiting capacity of the initial phase of set-up where energy would require to be brought from the National Grid in large quantities until such time as the energy produced exceeds

    the required volume.

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    References

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    Cover Image:

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    With Thanks to BFC Solutions Ltd and Solvatec AG

    Ben Pitcher

    10205005

    Connecting Sustainable Practices

    ARCH 410