Ben Fowke Chairman, President and CEO Xcel Energy Today’s Energy Outlook.
22
Ben Fowke Ben Fowke Chairman, President and CEO Chairman, President and CEO Xcel Energy Xcel Energy Today’s Energy Outlook Today’s Energy Outlook
-
Upload
james-cameron -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
0
Transcript of Ben Fowke Chairman, President and CEO Xcel Energy Today’s Energy Outlook.
Ben FowkeBen FowkeChairman, President and CEOChairman, President and CEO
Xcel EnergyXcel Energy
Today’s Energy OutlookToday’s Energy OutlookToday’s Energy OutlookToday’s Energy Outlook
Xcel Energy: Who We AreXcel Energy: Who We Are
Fortune 200 companyFortune 200 company 5 million customers in 8 states5 million customers in 8 states $10.7 billion in revenues$10.7 billion in revenues No. 1 provider of wind energyNo. 1 provider of wind energy Dow Jones SustainabilityDow Jones Sustainability
IndexIndex No. 2 on Most TrustedNo. 2 on Most Trusted
Companies in AmericaCompanies in America
NSP-Minnesota: Who We AreNSP-Minnesota: Who We Are
NSP-Minnesota: Who We AreNSP-Minnesota: Who We Are
1.4 million electric customers1.4 million electric customers 500,000 natural gas customers500,000 natural gas customers ~5,400 employees~5,400 employees Largest property tax payerLargest property tax payer
in Minnesotain Minnesota Active community partnersActive community partners
Energy assistanceEnergy assistance United WayUnited Way Non-profit grantsNon-profit grants
Today’s Energy ChallengesToday’s Energy Challenges
Our aging infrastructureOur aging infrastructure
Managing environmental hurdlesManaging environmental hurdles
Investments, capital and costInvestments, capital and cost
Today’s choices for tomorrowToday’s choices for tomorrow
The utility of the futureThe utility of the future
Building the Electric SystemBuilding the Electric System
US Third Industrial RevolutionUS Third Industrial Revolution Economies of scale with 7% Economies of scale with 7%
annual growth – doublingannual growth – doublingevery 10 years every 10 years
1970’s – 1980’s1970’s – 1980’s Inflation & higher cost per unitInflation & higher cost per unit Environmental concerns emergeEnvironmental concerns emerge
Post WWII – 1960’sPost WWII – 1960’s
Average Percent of Disposable IncomeAverage Percent of Disposable Incomeand Growth Rates of Percentage (1960-2011)and Growth Rates of Percentage (1960-2011)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Health Care Services Financial Services & InsuranceElectricity Natural Gas
2.5%2.5%
1.2%1.2%
0.1%0.1%-1.4%-1.4%
0
2
4
6
8
10
19
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
20
00
2 4 6 8 10
20
12
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1969 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
2001 3 5 7 9
2011
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1969 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
2001 3 5 7 9
2011
A Better ProductA Better Product
CleanerCleaner
MoreMoreReliableReliable
SaferSafer
OSHA IncidentsOSHA Incidents
Number of Transmission Events Resulting in Load LossNumber of Transmission Events Resulting in Load Loss
Tons of SO2Tons of SO2
Environmental Regulatory Timeline for Coal UnitsOzone (O3)
PM/PM2.5
MATS Proposed
OzoneNAAQS
Proposed
Begin CAIR Phase I
Annual SO2 Cap
Adapted from Wegman (EPA 2003) Updated 01-12-11
Xcel Updated 03-27-12
PM-2.5 NAAQS Final
SO2 / NOxSecondary
NAAQSFinal
SO2/NOx
CAMR & Delisting
Rule Vacated
MATS
Transport Rule Proposal Issued
(CAIR Replacement)
MATS Final
CAIR Vacated
MATS Compliance
Date
CAIR Remanded
CAIR / CSAPR
Begin CAIR Phase I
Annual NOx Cap
316(b) Proposed
Rule
316(b) Final Rule
316(b) Compliance3-4 Yrs After Final Rule
Effluent GuidelinesProposal
Water
Effluent GuidelinesFinal Rule Expected
Effluent GuidelinesCompliance 3-5 Yrs
After Final Rule
Begin Compliance
With CCB Rule (Ground Water
Monitoring, Double Liners, Closure, Dry
Ash Conversion)
Ash
CCB Rule Proposal
Transport Rule
(CSAPR) Final
CO2
Ozone NAAQS
Final Rule Expected
GHG NSPS Proposal(New Plants)
GHG NSPS Proposal
(Existing Plants)
EPA’s Regulatory Agenda
Begin CAIR
Phase I Seasonal NOX Cap
CSAPR Stayed
Regional Haze Reasonable
Further Progress SIP
Due
’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18
NOX Primary NAAQS
Final
SO2 Primary NAAQSFinal
CO2 Regulation(PSD/BACT)
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2020
Environmental LeadershipEnvironmental Leadership
Carbon Carbon DioxideDioxide
Nitrogen Nitrogen OxideOxide
↓26%
↓80%
↓71%
NSP-Minnesota owned–generation, emissions in thousands of tonsNSP-Minnesota owned–generation, emissions in thousands of tons
Sulfur Sulfur DioxideDioxide
0
50
100
150
200
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2020
0
50
100
150
200
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2020
Upper Midwest Fuel MixUpper Midwest Fuel Mix
* As filed in current Resource Plan* As filed in current Resource Plan
CurrentCurrent
CoalCoal44%44%
NuclearNuclear29%29%
NaturalNaturalGasGas7%7%
OtherOtherRenewablesRenewables
10%10%
WindWind10%10%
20252025
CoalCoal38%38%
NuclearNuclear28%28%
NaturalNaturalGasGas17%17%
OtherOtherRenewablesRenewables
4%4%
WindWind13%13%
Capital InvestmentCapital Investment
Xcel EnergyXcel Energy NSP-MinnesotaNSP-Minnesota
NSP-MinnesotaNSP-Minnesota44%44%
PSCoPSCo32%32%
SPSSPS17%17% NSP-WisconsinNSP-Wisconsin
7%7%
TransmissionTransmission28%28%
DistributionDistribution13%13%
GenerationGeneration30%30%
EnvironmentalEnvironmental5%5%
Nuclear FuelNuclear Fuel13%13%
OtherOther7%7%
Natural GasNatural Gas4%4%
2012 – 20162012 – 2016Total: $13.4 BillionTotal: $13.4 Billion
2012 – 20162012 – 2016Total: $5.9 BillionTotal: $5.9 Billion
Projected Financing PlanProjected Financing Plan2012 – 20162012 – 2016
$13,400
$9,380
$800$2,640
$400
$2,820
* * Cash from operations, net of dividend and pension fundingCash from operations, net of dividend and pension funding
Dollars in millionsDollars in millions
CapCapExEx
CFO *CFO *New New Debt Debt
DRIPDRIPEquityEquity
Funding capital expendituresFunding capital expenditures
RefinancedRefinancedDebtDebt
Resource Decisions: Making Resource Decisions: Making Choices for Tomorrow Today Choices for Tomorrow Today
30 – 50 year timeframe30 – 50 year timeframe
OptionsOptions
Conservation (demand-side management)Conservation (demand-side management)
Renewables (wind, solar)Renewables (wind, solar)
CoalCoal
NuclearNuclear
Natural GasNatural Gas
Natural Gas Price ForecastNatural Gas Price Forecast
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Dollars per MMBtuDollars per MMBtu
2008 Forecast2008 Forecast
2012 Forecast2012 Forecast
Current NYMEXCurrent NYMEX
Average: $9.51Average: $9.51
Average: $5.57Average: $5.57
Average: $5.22Average: $5.22
Resource CostResource Cost
0
100
200
300
400
500
Wind NaturalGas
New Coal Nuclear LargeUtilitySolar
RooftopSolar
DollarsDollars
Cost SubsidizedCost SubsidizedCost With No SubsidyCost With No Subsidy
NREL and DOE 2020 Rooftop PVNREL and DOE 2020 Rooftop PVSolar Cost Estimates and TargetsSolar Cost Estimates and Targets
$4.25/W$4.25/W
$2.74/W$2.74/W$381/MWh$381/MWh
$255/MWh$255/MWh$171/MWh$171/MWh
Customer Rates ($127/MWh)Customer Rates ($127/MWh)
Will Solar Be Competitive?Will Solar Be Competitive?
$0$0
$100$100
$200$200
$300$300
$400$400
$500$500
NREL 2010NREL 2010 NREL 2020 EstimatedNREL 2020 Estimated DOE 2020 SunShotDOE 2020 SunShot
To
tal
Co
st
($/M
Wh
)T
ota
l C
os
t ($
/MW
h)
$1.79/W$1.79/W
Utility of the FutureUtility of the FutureUtility of the FutureUtility of the Future
Downtown Minneapolis 5Downtown Minneapolis 5thth Street Substation Street Substation Transformer ReplacementTransformer Replacement
Downtown Minneapolis 5Downtown Minneapolis 5thth Street Substation Street Substation Transformer ReplacementTransformer Replacement
1 Minute1 Minute
Downtown Minneapolis 5Downtown Minneapolis 5thth Street Substation Street Substation Transformer ReplacementTransformer Replacement
3 Minute3 Minute
