Belgrade City Report - Građevinski projekti i razvoj...

REAL ESTATE

BELGRADE

Q1 2013

Izveštaj o BeograduT1 2013

on point

Belgrade City ReportQ1 2013

2 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q1 2013

Economy/Investment

Economy

After two successive years of economic growth, the Serbian

economy faced a significant drop of 1.7% in 2012, largely due to the

mid-year elections, a weak agricultural season and general

economic turmoil elsewhere in Europe. According to the data

officially published by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia,

the economy contracted by 2.0% year-on-year in the last quarter of

2012. The highest fall was recorded in the sector of construction

(24.7%) and in the sector of electricity, gas, steam and air

conditioning supply (7.1%). The sectors that recorded growth and

successfully ended the last quarter were: the sectors of information

and communication (11.4%), financial and insurance activities

(5.9%) and manufacturing (4.9%). IHS Global Insight estimates the

country’s recovery in 2013 at 2.1% GDP growth. This scenario

seems quite optimistic and is probably based on the expected

industrial growth lead by FIAT, which at the moment presents one of

the main hopes for Serbia.

GDP Growth (%) Rast BDP(%)

Source/Izvor: IHS Global Insight, Country Report, April 2013

In 2012, Serbia continued to struggle with very high unemployment

as a result of weakened economy. Some 172,422 people lost their

jobs in Serbia in 2012, which pushed the unemployment rate among

the working population to 24.6%. Industries such as construction,

textile, metal and hospitality have been the hardest hit by job losses.

The unemployment rate growth is not estimated to slow down or to

drop over the next twelve months; labour market recovery will highly

depend on development of the real sector, rapid re-industrialization

as well as foreign investment.

Very cold weather in February last year, a drought in the summer,

presidential and government elections have all placed an upward

pressure on the inflation rate throughout 2012. In Q4 2012, the

Serbian economy recorded double-digit inflation at 12.2% due to

cost-push pressures on food prices, past depreciation of the dinar,

the effects of VAT and excise increases, and administered price

growth.

Year-on-year industrial production in February 2013, w, increased

by 13.1% but, compared to the 2012 average, it decreased by 6.0%.

Unemployment Rate (%) Stopa nazaposlenosti (%)


Serbia remains one of the countries in the region with the lowest

salaries and purchasing power. In February 2013, the average net

salary in Serbia amounted to 43,371 RSD or €389. According to the

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, the individual

consumption expenditures of households amounted to 49,700 RSD

or €439, of which the expenditures for food and non-alcoholic

beverages made up the largest share at 42.9%

Political Situation

The new government established in July 2012 adopted set of public

finance stabilization measures for economic recovery; however, we

still have not seen any real reforms of the tax, pension, healthcare

and educational systems or, public sector and public enterprises. On

the other hand, since elected, the government has been carrying out

a strong anti-corruption campaign.

Serbia is currently continuing its very difficult bilateral talks with

Kosovo, which are a precondition for launching official EU accession

negotiations.

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f

On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q1 2013 3

Privreda/Investicije

Privreda

Nakon dvogodišnjeg uzastopnog rasta, srpska privreda se suočila

sa značajnim padom od 1,7% u 2012. godini, zbog izbora održanih

sredinom godine, slabom poljoprivrednom sezonom i opštom lošom

ekonomskom situacijom u Evropi. Na osnovu zvaničnih podataka

koje je objavio Statistički zavod Republike Srbije, u poslednjem

tromesečju 2012. zabeležen je privredni pad od 2,0% u odnosu na

poslednje tromesečje 2011. Najveći pad zabeležen je u

građevinskom sektoru (24,7%) i sektoru snabdevanja električnom

energijom, gasom i parom (7,1%). Sektori koji su zabeležili rast i

uspešno završili tromesečje su: sektor informisanja i komunikacija

(11,4%), sektor finansijskih delatnosti i delatnosti osiguranja (5,9%) i

sektor prerađivačke industrije (4,9%). IHS Global Insight za 2013.

godinu predviđa oporavak privrede i porast BDP od 2,1%. Ova

prognoza deluje prilično optimistično, a verovatno je zasnovana na

očekivanom porastu industrijske proizvodnje predvođene FIAT-om,

koji u ovom trenutku predstavlja jedinu nadu za Srbiju.

CPI (%) Inflacija (%)


U 2012. godini se Srbija borila sa visokom nezaposlenošću, kao

posledicom slabe privrede. Nekih 172.422 ljudi je ostalo bez posla u

Srbiji, što je nezaposlenost među radno sposobnom populacijom

povećalo na 24,6%. Gubitkom posla su najviše pogođeni zaposleni

u građevinskom, tekstilnom , metalskom i uslužnom sektoru.

Rast nezaposlenosti neće usporiti niti će se smanjiti u narednih

dvanaest meseci; oporavak tržišta radne snage veoma će zavisiti od

razvoja realnog sektora, brzine reindustrijalizacije kao i priliva

stranih investicija.

Veoma hladno vreme u februaru prošle godine, letnja suša kao i

predsednički i parlamentarni izbori sredinom godine povećali su

inflaciju u 2012. U poslednjem kvartalu 2012. srpska privreda je

zabeležila dvocifrenu inflaciju od 12,2%, zbog povećanja cena

hrane, prethodnog slabljenja dinara, povećanja PDV-a i као i rasta

regulisanih cena.

Industrijska proizvodnja u Srbiji u februaru 2013. godini povećana je

za 13,1% u odnosu na februar 2012, a smanjena za 6,0% u odnosu

na godišnji prosek 2012.

Yields % Stope prinosa %

Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, April 2013

Srbija je i dalje među zemljama sa najnižom platom i kupovnom

moći. Prosečna neto zarada u Srbiji je u februaru 2013. iznosila

43.371 RSD ili €389. Na osnovu podataka Statističkog zavoda

Srbije, domaćinstva u Srbiji mesečno troše 49.700 RSD ili €439, od

čega se na hranu i bezalkoholna pića troši 42,9%.

Politička situacija

Nova Vlada koje je formirana u julu 2012. godine, donela je set

mera stabilizacije javnih finansija sa ciljem oporavka privrede; ipak

još uvek nisu urađene prave reforme poreskog, penzijskog,

zdravstvenog i obrazovnog sistema, kao ni reforme javnog sektora i

javnih preduzeća. S druge strane, otkako je izabrana, Vlada vodi

vrlo snažnu antikorupcijsku borbu.

Srbija trenutno prolazi kroz veoma teške i iscrpljujuće pregovore sa

Kosovom, koji su preduslov za početak zvaničnih pregovora za

pridruživanje Evropskoj Uniji.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f

Sektor/Sektor

Yield/

Stopa prinosa

%

Changes on previous quarter/

Promene u odnosu na

prethodno tromesečje

Offices/Kancelarijski prostori 9.25% ↕

Retail/Maloprodajni prostori

Shopping Centers/tržni

centri

9.00% ↕

Logistics/Logistički objekti 10.25% ↕↕

↕


Office Market

Supply

In Q1 2013, the completion of Danube Business Centre (5,200 m2)

pushed the total office stock in Belgrade to 615,000 m2. The total

class A office stock stands at 331,000 m2 GLA, where the majority

(302,000 m2 or 91%) is located in New Belgrade, a growing

business district of the Serbian capital city.

In 2013, very limited new supply will be added to the market.

Currently, there is only one office project under active construction,

planned to be delivered by the end of the year, namely the Old Mill

Office Tower (3,870 m2), part of mixed-use hotel/commercial

complex in the close vicinity of Belgrade Fair.

Total Class A & B Stock (m2)

Ukupna ponuda prostora klase A i B (m2)


Demand

Take-up figures for the first quarter of 2013 show an increased

demand for office space. Total gross take-up in Q1 amounted to

15,559 m2, which represents a ca. 58% increase in total gross take-

up compared to the last quarter of 2012.

Total net take-up which excludes contract renewals reached 10,259

m2. With 8,959 m2, new leases took the largest portion of all

concluded lease deals in Q1. Expansions and contract renewals

amounted to 1,300 m2 and 5,200 m2 respectively.

From the analysis of individual office lease transactions, we

conclude that the deals for office space above 1,000 m2 are still

quite rare, making 15% of total lease transactions.

The majority of tenants on the Belgrade market still seek for the floor

plates between 100 and 400 m2. The major occupiers active on the

market include; IT, pharmaceutical and professional services

companies.

Vacancy

The vacancy rate has been constantly decreasing since 2010. In Q1

2013 we registered a 14% vacancy in class A and B office stock in

Belgrade. A further drop is expected over the next two years due to

very low new supply.

Office Completions (m2) and Vacancy Rates (%) Class A & B

Zavrsena izgradnja (m2) i stopa nepopunjenosti (%)


Rents and Yields

Prime office rents in Belgrade remained unchanged in Q1 2013.

Headline rents for A class premises in New Belgrade range between

€14 and €16/m2/month and we do not anticipate any changes over

the short term. However, landlords continue to offer incentives such

as rent free periods (usually three months), fit-out contributions and

additional free parking spaces. Rents for B class office space across

New Belgrade range between €9 and €13/m2/month and for

downtown between €10 and €12/m2/month.

The prime office yield in Belgrade is estimated at 9.25%.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q12013Class B Class A

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q12013


Kancelarijski prostori

Ponuda

Završetak poslovne zgrade Danube Business Center (5.200 m2) u

prvom kvartalu 2013.godine povećao je ukupnu ponudu

kancelarijskog prostora klase A i B na 615.000 m2. Ukupna ponuda

prostora klase A iznosi 331.000 m2, gde se većina (302.000 m2 ili

91%) nalazi na Novom Beogradu, poslovnom centru Beograda koji

se neprestano razvija.

U 2013. godini tržište će dobiti veoma malu ponudu

novoizgradjenog poslovnog prostora. Trenutno je samo jedan

projekat u fazi aktivne izgradnje čiji se završetak planira do kraja

godine. U pitanju je Stari Mlin (3.870 m2), deo mešovitog hotelsko-

komercijalnog prostora u neposrednoj blizini Beogradskog sajma.

Prime Office Yields %

Stopa prinosa prvoklasnog prostora %


Potražnja

Transakcije zabeležene u prvom kvartalu 2013. godine ukazuju na

povećanu tražnju za kancelarijskim prostorom. Ukupan bruto zakup

u prvom tromesečju iznosio je 15.559 m2, što predstavlja oko 58%

povećanja u odnosu na ukupan bruto zakup u poslednjem

tromesečju 2012. godine.

Ukupan neto zakup koji isključuje obnove ugovora o zakupu iznosio

je 10.259 m2. Novi zakupi kancelarijskog prostora sa 8.959 m2,

predstavljaju najveci udeo u svim zaključenim zakupima u prvom

kvartalu. Proširenja i obnove ugovora iznosili su 1.300 i 5.200 m2.

Analizom pojedinačnih transakcija zakupa, zaključujemo da su

zakupi kancelarijskog prostora preko 1.000 m2 i dalje retki na tržištu,

a u prvom kvartalu ove godine oni su iznosili 15% od ukupnog broja

transakcija.

Većina zakupaca u Beogradu i dalje traži kancelarijske prostore od

100 do 400 m2. Zakupci koji su uzimali prostore su bile IT

kompanije, farmaceutske kuće I kompanije koje se bave pružanjem

profesionalnih usluga.

Raspoloživi prostor

Stopa nepopunjenog prostora je u stalnom padu od 2010. godine. U

prvom tromesečju 2013. godine stopa praznog prostora u poslovnim

zgradama klase A I B u Beogradu iznosila je 14%. Očekuje se dalji

pad u naredne dve godine zbog slabe ponude novoizgrađenog

kancelarijskog prostora.

Prime Rents €/m2/month

Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora €/m2/mesečno

Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, April 2013Cene zakupa i stope prinosa

Visine zakupa i stope prinosa

Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora u Beogradu ostale su

nepromenjene u prvom tromesečju 2013.godine. Cene zakupa

kancelarijskog prostora klase A na Novom Beogradu kreću se od

€14 do €16/m2/mesečno i ne očekujemo nikakve promene u

kratkoročnom periodu. Ipak, vlasnici prostora i dalje nude podsticaje

poput rent-free perioda (obično 3 meseca), dodatna parking mesta

bez naknade, učešće zakupodavca u troškovima završnih radova.

Cene zakupa za kancelarijski prostor klase B na Novom Beogradu

iznose između €9 do €13/m2/mesečno a centru grada od €10 do

€12/m2/mesečno.

Procenje se da stopa prinosa za prvoklasne kancelarijske prostore

u Beogradu iznosi 9,25%.

8.00%8.25%8.50%8.75%9.00%9.25%9.50%9.75%

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

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2010

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Q4

2010

Q1

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2011

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2011

Q1

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0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q12013


Retail Market

Supply

Although the completion of Stadium Center at Voždovac was

scheduled for the end of March, the official opening was

postponed for the the last week of April. Therefore, the shopping

centre stock in Belgrade remained unchanged over the last

quarter of 2013, at 158,700 m2 GLA. Prime shopping centre

supply in Belgrade is located in three assets, amounting to

98,000 m2 GLA. Translated into shopping centre density figures,

Belgrade remains at the lowest position of the European

shopping centre scale, with only 60 m2 GLA of retail space in

modern shopping centres per 1,000 inhabitants.

Although the scheme has been operating since Q3 2012, the

official opening of Karaburma Shopping Center (12,000 m2 GLA)

took place in March 2013. The first retailers to enter the shopping

centre are Roda supermarket, DM and Merkur. Jysk opened its

store in November 2012, and the official opening saw the

entrance of Sport Vison, Takko Fashion, Deichmann, C&A,

BigBang and Cotton4Family.

Shopping Center Stock in Belgrade (m2)

Ponuda tržnih centara u Beogradu (m2)


In 2013, we expect the completion of Stadium Center Voždovac

to push the total shopping centre stock in Belgrade to 193,700

m2. We do not expect any further new shopping centre supply to

be added to the market in 2013.

Large sized pipeline projects in Belgrade include: Delta Planet

(75,000 m2 GLA) which has already signed agreements with

hypermarket and multiplex cinema operators; Višnjička Plaza

(40,000 m2 GLA) that is negotiating with anchors and Ada Mall

(30,000 m2 GLA).

Demand

New international retailers to enter the Belgrade include: Bagatt

(Italian shoe retailer) and Desigual (a Spansh fashion brand) who

have signed up for retail space in Delta City and Ušće Shopping

Center respectively. In addition, Romanian electonics store Altex

have secured 1,800 m2 in Stadium Shopping Center. Over the

first quarter we also saw the expansion of C&A, Takko and

Deichmann that opened the stores in Karaburma shopping

center.

Total Annual Spend in € per Capita in Belgrade

Source/Izvor: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

The demand from international retailers for modern retail

schemes continues to be very strong; the main obstacle for new

entrants or retailers looking to expand is the limited supply of

modern shopping centres.

The vacancy rate in prime shopping centres is close to zero and

the majority of current vacant space is largely due to tenant mix

changes.

Rents and Yields

Prime rents and yields remained unchanged in Q1. Prime

shopping center rent for a 100 to 200 m2 retail unit stands at

€65/m2/month, while rent for such a unit on Knez Mihajlova

Street is €80/m2/month. Average rents in prime shopping centres

in Belgrade range between €27 and €29/m2/month. The prime

shopping centre yield stands at 9%.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

2,250

2,300

2009 2010 2011 2012


Maloprodajni prostori

Ponuda

Iako je završetak izgradnje Stadion centra na Voždovcu bio

planiran za kraj marta, zvanično otvaranje je odloženo za

poslednju nedelju aprila. Tako je ukupna ponuda maloprodajnog

prostora u tržnim centrima u Beogradu ostala nepromenjena u

prvom tromesečju 2013. i iznosi 158.700 m2. Maloprodajni prostor

u prvoklasnim centrima u Beogradu smešten je u tri objekta i

njegova površina iznosi 98.000 m2. Po glavi stanovnika, Beograd

nudi 60m2 modernog prodajnog prostora u tržnim centrima, zbog

čega se nalazi na najnižem mestu na evropskoj skali tržnih

centara.

Iako ovaj tržni centar radi od trećeg tromesečja 2012, tržni centar

Karaburma je zvanično otvoren u martu 2013. Zakupci koji su prvi

ušli u tržni centar su Roda supermarket, DM i Merkur. Jysk je

otvorio svoj maloprodajni prostor u novembru 2012., a sa

zvaničnim otvaranjem ušli su Sport Vision, Takko Fashion,

Deichmann, C&A, Big Bang, Cotton4Family.

Prime Shopping Center Yields

Stopa prinosa prvoklasnih tržnih centara


U 2013. se očekuje završetak Stadion centra na Voždovcu, što će

povećati ponudu tržnih centara u Beogradu na 193.700 m2. Osim

ovog projekta, u Beogradu neće biti izgrađeno novih tržnih

centara.

Veliki projekti koji su planirani u Beogradu su: Delta Planet

(75.000 m2) koji već ima potpisan ugovor o zakupu sa

hipermarketom i bioskopom, Višnjička Plaza (40.000 m2) koja

pregovara sa ankorima i Ada Mall (30.000 m2).

Potražnja

Novi brendovi koji su se na tržištu pojavili su Bagatt, italijanski

modni brend za obuću i Desigual, španski modni brend, koji su

zakupili lokale u tržnom centru Delta City, odnosno Ušću. Takođe,

rumunski brend Altex je obezbedio maloprodajni prostor od 1.800

m2 u Stadion Centru . Tokom prvog tromsečja primetili smo

ekspanziju brendova poput C&A ,Takko Fashion i Deichmann koji

su otvorili lokale u tržnom centru Karaburma.

Prime rents €/m2/month

Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora €/m2/mesečno


Potražnja stranih brendova za modernim prodajnim prostorom je i

dalje snažna; glavna prepreka brendovima koji nisu prisutni na

tržištu ili već postojećim koji žele da prošire svoju mrežu jeste

nedovoljna ponuda maloprodajnog prostora u modernim tržnim

centrima. Stopa nepopunjenog prostora u tržnim centrima je

skoro jednaka nuli a prazne lokale koje posetioci vide su samo

naizgled prazni, zbog promene zakupaca.

Visine zakupa i stope prinosa

Zakupi i stope prinosa prvoklasnih prostora ostali su nepromenjeni

u prvom tromesečju 2013.godine. Visina zakupa prvoklasnog

maloprodajnog prostora površine od 100 do 200 m2 u modernim

tržnim centrima iznosi €65/m2/mesečno, dok se isti takav prostor u

Knez Mihajlovoj ulici može iznajmiti za €80/m2/mesecno.

Prosečne visine zakupa u prvoklasnim tržnim centrima u

Beogradu kreću se od €27 do €29/m2/mesečno. Stopa prinosa za

prvoklasne tržne centre iznosi 9%.

8.75%

9.00%

9.25%

9.50%

9.75%

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High Street Shopping Centers


Market Practice

Leasing Market Practice

Lease length

• Average lease length is 5 years, 3 – 5 years are common in

the city centre and 5 (rarely 7) years on the outskirts

• In a few cases longer leases can be agreed

• 3 year break options are becoming more common

Payment Terms

• Rents are quoted in € and paid monthly in advance in either €

or RSD according to the exchange rate on the day of the

payment

Rental Deposit

• It is common to agree on a cash deposit or bank guarantee

equal to 3 months rent for all types of premises (office, retail

and industrial)

• Indexation is annually in line with European CPI

Other Charges

• Service and energy charges (Utilities and direct consumption

are paid separately)(offices and industrial)

• Service charges and marketing costs (retail)

Insurance

• The landlord covers costs of building insurance (recovered by

service charges). The tenant covers insurance of own

premises, contents and civil liabilities

Incentives

• Offered by the landlords in form of 3 month rent free period, fit-

out contributions and free of charge additional parking space

Tržišna praksa zakupa prostora

Dužina zakupa

• Prosečna dužina zakupa je 5 godina - uglavnom se prostori u

centru grada zakupljuju na 3 – 5 godina, a na periferiji na 5

(retko 7 godina)

• U malom broju slučajeva se vrši zakup prostora na duži period

• Sve su češće mogućnosti raskida ugovora nakon 3 godine

Uslovi plaćanja

• Cene zakupa se navode u € a plaćaju se mesečno unapred ili u

€ ili u RSD prema valutnom kursu na dan plaćanja

Depozit

• Praksa je da se depozit plaća u kešu ili bankarskom garancijom

u iznosu od tri mesečne rente za sve vrste prostora

(kancelarijski, maloprodajni i industrijski)

• Indeksacija se vrši godišnje i usklađena je sa evropskim rastom

potrošačkih cena

Ostali troškovi

• Troškovi usluga i potrošnje električne energije (troškovi

održavanja i direktne potrošnje plaćaju se posebno)

(kancelarijski i industrijski prostori)

• Troškovi usluga i marketinga (maloprodajni prostori)

Osiguranje

• Vlasnik prostora pokriva troškove osiguranja zgrade (naplaćuje

se od naknade za troškove usluga). Zakupac plaća osiguranje

za sopstvene prostorije, pokretnu imovinu i civilna lica

Podsticaji

• Vlasnici prostora prilikom izdavanja mogu davati i podsticaje u

vidu izdavanja prostora na period od 3 meseca bez naknade,

uređenja prostora o sopstvenom trošku ili dodatna parking

mesta gratis

Jones Lang LaSalle offices

Belgrade

Bulevar Mihajla Pupina 6, 11070 Novi Beograd

Serbia

+ 381 11 22 00 101

+ 381 11 22 00 102

Contacts

Jens Moller Madsen

Managing Director SEE

Jones Lang LaSalle

Croatia

+385 1 4826 114

[email protected]

www.joneslanglasalle.com

Andrew Peirson

Managing Director

Jones Lang LaSalle

Serbia

+381 11 22 00 103

[email protected]


Sonja Janković

Research Analyst

Jones Lang LaSalle

Serbia

+381 11 22 00 110

[email protected]


Belgrade City Report Q1 2013

OnPoint reports from Jones Lang LaSalle include quarterly and annual highlights of real estate activity, performance and specialised

surveys and forecasts that uncover emerging trends.


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