Retrofit and Behaviour Change A presentation by Prof. Erik Bichard, Salford University.
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Transcript of Behaviour change presentation
Behaviour Change…art or science?
Clive Bates
Director General, Sustainable Futures
Welsh Assembly Government
Contemporary challenges
Some relevant areas
Education/skills
Parenting
Post-16 participation
Adult literacy
Life skills (cooking etc)
Volunteering
Health
Teenage pregnancy
Drugs, alcohol, tobacco
Obesity
Keeping appointments
Organ donation
Prosperity
Service culture
Active job seeking
Entrepreneurship
Personal aspiration
Diversity
Environment
Transport choices
Energy efficiency
Reduce, reuse, recycle
Consumption choices
Fly-tipping
Community
Crime prevention
Anti-social behaviour
Terrorism
Social mobility
Litter / graffiti
Care / ageing
Self-care
Pension provision
Mental health
Active ageing
End-of-life choices
Behaviour change is big money
£154bn
£30bn
4
6
8
10
12
14
1977
-78
1982
-83
1987
-88
1992
-93
1997
-98
2002
-03
2007
-08
2012
-13
2017
-18
2022
-23
Projected UK health care spending
(% GDP public & private, annotations at 2002-3 prices)
£96bn 2007-8
US spent 14.6% GDP in 2002 (OECD)
% GDP
Source: Wanless, 2002 Securing Our Future Health: Taking A Long-Term View
About £220 bn over 15 years
Fully engaged
1. Use a simple model that people can remember
Encourage
Enable
Engage
Exemplify
Catalyse
1. The 4-E approach to behaviour changeTaxes & fiscal measures
Regulation & finesLeague tables
Targets / perf managementPrizes / rewards / bonuses
Preferential treatment Status recognition
Subsidies / discountsFeedback
Remove barriers to actSet defaults / opt-out vs opt-in
Form clubs / communitiesProvide information
Choose intervention timingPersonalise
Provide space / facilitiesBuild confidence
Ease/cost of access
Community/network actionDeliberative fora
Segmentation / focusSecure commitmentPersonal contacts
Role models / 'super-users'Paid/unpaid media campaignsPester power / Peer pressure
Workplace norms
Evidence baseWalk the talk & lead
Consistency across policiesSustained approach
Credibility / confidenceBenchmarking / evaluationLearning & improvement
Political consensus building
Encourage
Enable
Engage
Exemplify
Catalyse
4-E approach to behaviour changeTaxes & fiscal measures
Regulation & finesLeague tables
Targets / perf managementPrizes / rewards / bonuses
Preferential treatment Status recognition
Subsidies / discountsFeedback
Remove barriers to actSet defaults / opt-out vs opt-in
Form clubs / communitiesProvide information
Choose intervention timingPersonalise
Provide space / facilitiesBuild confidence
Ease/cost of access
Community/network actionDeliberative fora
Segmentation / focusSecure commitmentPersonal contacts
Role models / 'super-users'Paid/unpaid media campaignsPester power / Peer pressure
Workplace norms
Evidence baseWalk the talk & lead
Consistency across policiesSustained approach
Credibility / confidenceBenchmarking / evaluationLearning & improvement
Political consensus building
Some examples using the 4-E framework
• Smoking
• Drink driving
• Recycling
Smoking prevalence All > age 16 (Britain)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Encourage
Enable
Engage
Exemplify
Catalyse
Smoking and behaviour change
High excise taxesBan marketing practices
Address smuggling
(nb. Personal incentives)
NHS 'stop smoking' treatmentSmoke-free policies
Quit-linesPharmaceutical deregulation
Social marketing campaignsMore graphic warnings
Major news media assaultConstant revisiting evidence
“Denormalisation”
Smoke-free policiesClear messages from NHS
Consistent packageClear goals
Commercial arguments
A cigarette for the beginner is a symbolic act. I am no longer my mother’s child,
I’m tough, I am an adventurer, I’m not
square...
...as the force of the psychological symbolism
subsides, the pharmacological effects take over to sustain the
habit
But others forces are at work...
Dunn W. Vice President for Research and Development, Philip Norris. Why one smokes. 1968 Minnesota Trial Exhibit 3681.
Encourage
Enable
Engage
Exemplify
Catalyse
Smoking: from the dark side
AdvertisingRole models
Adult product definitionDuty Free
Orchestrating smugglingLightsFilters
Wide availabilityFighting smoke-free places
Aspirational sell to poor Coupons and catalogues
Coaching argumentsDistracting PRBogus science
Product placement in filmsSponsorshipNormalisation
Drink drivingReported drink drive accidents and fatalities: GB 1980-2008
1980=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Fatalities
Accidents
DFT: Reported Road Casualties Great Britain 2008: Annual Report
Encourage
Enable
Engage
Exemplify
Catalyse
Drink driving
More severe penaltiesPolice enforcement
BreathalyserSoft drinks normalisation
Taxi services & other innovations
Driver training as part of penalty
Strong sustained media campaign
Clever segmentation
30 year campaignVilification of politicians
No 'nod and wink'
Drink drivingReported drink drive accidents and fatalities: GB 1980-2008
1980=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Fatalities
Accidents
DFT: Reported Road Casualties Great Britain 2008: Annual Report
SeatbeltsCompulsory
1983
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Rise of Alcopops
ml/w
eek
per
pers
on
Drink drivingReported drink drive accidents and fatalities: GB 1980-2008
1980=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Fatalities
Accidents
DFT: Reported Road Casualties Great Britain 2008: Annual Report
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
300
400
500
600
700
800
900Decline of breath tests
Num
ber
of b
reat
h te
sts
(tho
usan
d)
Eng
land
and
Wal
es
Recycling and behaviour change
1991
-92
1992
-93
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
UK recycling rateKg per person
Encourage
Enable
Engage
Exemplify
Catalyse
Recycling and behaviour change
Landfill taxLandfill diversion targets
Infraction
Local authorities incentive structure changed
Collection servicesContainers / bags
Sorting
(difficulties remain)
Common endeavourNo free-riding
Waste Awareness
But... controversy and sensitivity
Government targetsMoney committed
SD indicatorsLong-term view (to 2025)
Organ donation
Johnson, E. J. and Goldstein, D. (2003). Do defaults save lives? Science, 302:1338–1339.
Encourage
Enable
Engage
Exemplify
Catalyse
Blood / organ donation
Payment? Default (opt out)
Blood money
Developed Transition Developing0
10
20
30
40
50
38.1
7.1
2.3
Donors per thousand population
World Health Organisation: Blood Transfusion Safety Unit 2007 data.
Paying for blood creates poor incentives
Percentage of voluntary unpaid blood donations, 2007
Contracts for exercise
Contract No contract0
20
40
60
80
100
81
31
Participation in walking programme
Williams BR, Bezner J, Chesbro SB, Leavitt R. The effect of a behavioral contract on adherence to a walking program in postmenopausal African American women. Top Geriatr Rehab.2005;21(4):332- 342.
Encourage
Enable
Engage
Exemplify
Catalyse
Contracts to create reciprocity
Solidarity with othersPeer pressure
Contract & reciprocity
Teachers Expectations affect Student Outcome
Randomly selected but labelled "High achievers"
Control group0
5
10
15
20
25
30
21
5
Proportion pupils achieving 30 point grade increase
Rosenthal, Robert & Jacobson, Lenore. Pygmalion in the classroom (1992). Expanded edition. New York: IrvingtonQuote: attributed to George W Bush
“The soft bigotry of low expectations”
Encourage
Enable
Engage
Exemplify
Catalyse
The Pygmalion Effect
Expectation setting and belief
4-E behaviour change model in use
2. Think of people as ‘human’
2. Understand human behaviourRational
all-knowing individualised
long-term utility
maximisation
MINDSPACE
MINDSPACE
Messenger: We are influenced by who communicates information
Incentives: Our responses are shaped by biases and shortcuts
Norms: We tend to do what those around us are already doing
Defaults: We ‘go with the flow’ of pre-set options
MINDSPACE
Salience: Our attention is drawn to what is novel and seems relevant to us
Priming: Our acts are often influenced by sub-conscious cues
Affect: Emotional associations can powerfully shape our actions
Commitment: We seek to be consistent with our public promises, and reciprocate acts
Ego: We act in ways that make us feel better about ourselves
The Science of Persuasion
6 weapons of influence
1.Reciprocation: You did something for me and now I owe you
2.Consistency: One thing I do or think leads to another
3.Social proof: 9 out of 10 cats prefer...
4.Liking: I will buy Tupperware from you because I like you
5.Authority: More doctors smoke Lucky Strike
6.Scarcity: Get it now, or I’ll be sorry when it’s gone
Robert Cialdini, The science of persuasion, Scientific American, 284, 76-81.
Some “biases” in real behaviour
• Loss aversion
• Recency
• Peak experience
• Herding
• Heuristics
• Omission
• Habit
• Confirmation
• Hyperbolic discounting
It's illogical Captain...
List of cognitive human “biases”Behaviour & Decision-making
Probability & belief Social
Bandwagon effectBase rate fallacyBias blind spotChoice-supportive biasConfirmation biasCongruence biasContrast effectDéformation professionnelleDenomination effectDistinction biasEndowment effectExperimenter's Extraordinarity biasFocusing effectFramingHyperbolic discountingIllusion of controlImpact biasInformation biasInterloper effectIrrational escalationJust-world phenomenonLoss aversionMere exposure effectMoney illusionMoral credential effectNeed for ClosureNegativity biasNeglect of probabilityNormalcy biasNot Invented HereOmission biasOutcome biasPlanning fallacyPost-purchase rationalizationPseudocertainty effectReactanceRestraint biasSelective perceptionSemmelweis reflexStatus quo biasVon Restorff effectWishful thinkingZero-risk bias
Ambiguity effectAnchoring effectAttentional biasAuthority biasAvailability heuristicAvailability cascadeBelief biasClustering illusionCapability biasConjunction fallacyDisposition effectGambler's fallacyHawthorne effectHindsight biasIllusory correlationLudic fallacyNeglect of prior base rates effectObserver-expectancy effectOptimism biasOstrich effectOverconfidence effectPositive outcome biasPareidoliaPrimacy effectRecency effectDisregard of regression toward the mean.Selection biasStereotypingSubadditivity effectSubjective validationTelescoping effectTexas sharpshooter fallacyWell travelled road effectConsistency biasCryptomnesiaEgocentric biasFalse memoryHindsight biasReminiscence bumpRosy retrospectionSelf-serving biasSuggestibility
Actor-observer biasEgocentric biasForer effectFalse consensus effectFundamental attribution errorHalo effectHerd instinctIllusion of asymmetric insightIllusion of transparencyIllusory superiorityIngroup biasJust-world phenomenonNotational biasOutgroup homogeneity biasProjection biasSelf-serving biasSelf-fulfilling prophecySystem justificationTrait ascription biasUltimate attribution error
For more information Wikipedia search:
“List of cognitive biases”
3. Understand the population
3. Understand the population
Use segmentation
Able to act
5: Cautious participants I do a couple of things to help the environment. I’d really like to do more, well as long as I saw others were. 14%
2: Waste watchers‘Waste not, want not’ that’s important, you should live life thinking about what you are doing and using. 12%
1: Positive greensI think it’s important that I do as much as I can to limit my impact on the environment. 18%
3: Concerned consumersI think I do more than a lot of people. Still, going away is important, I’d find that hard to give up..well I wouldn’t, so carbon off-setting would make me feel better. 14%
4: Sideline supportersI think climate change is a big problem for us. I know I don’t think much about how much water or electricity I use, and I forget to turn things off..I’d like to do a bit more. 14%
7: Honestly disengagedMaybe there’ll be an environmental disaster, maybe not. Makes no difference to me, I’m just living life the way I want to. 18%
6: Stalled startersI don’t know much about climate change. I can’t afford a car so I use public transport.. I’d like a car though. 10%
Willing to act
4. Be careful with the relationship between citizen and state
4: Establish the case for intervention
“The only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilised community, against his will, is to prevent harm to others. His own good, either physical or moral, is not a sufficient warrant”.
But… Children? Addiction? Influence of background? Mental illness? Collective costs? Regret...?
From soft paternalism to regulation
Health impacts
Unregulated addiction
Hooking kids
Passive smoking - public
Passive smoking - workers
Private impacts
Public (external) impacts
5. Adopt a learning approach
4+2 Es approach to behaviour change
Encourage
Enable
Engage
Exemplify
CatalyseExplore Evaluate
5. Culture change: self-sustaining behaviour
Summary
1. Four-E behaviour-change modelEncourageEnableEngageExemplify
2. Understand real behaviour
3. Segment and personalise
4. Judge public acceptability (which changes)
5. Experiment and evaluate
Reading up...
Thaler & Sustein Mark Earls Robert Cialdini Dan Ariely
Reading up...
Government communications
Government Social Research
Institute for Government
& Cabinet Office
Cabinet Office