Before the Bell...2021/01/26  · Industrials -0.69% -0.80% 743.3 Spot Silver (troy oz.) 0.30%...

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FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES PLEASE SEE THE DISCLOSURE PAGES AT THE END OF THIS DOCUMENT Notations: For further information on any of the topics mentioned, please contact your Financial Advisor. Unless specifically stated otherwise, comments contained in this document should not be construed as an investment opinion or recommendation of any securities mentioned. Charts depicted are from FactSet unless otherwise noted. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. Page 1 of 11 Before the Bell Morning Market Brief January 26, 2021 MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY: Anthony M. Saglimbene, Global Market Strategist Quick Take: U.S. stock futures pointing to a flattish-to-higher open; European markets are trading higher; Asia ended lower overnight; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil trading at $53.16; 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 1.05%. Are Stock Prices Overheating? Not even a full month into 2021, and the S&P 500 Index is higher by over +2.5% on a price alone basis. Over the last three months, the Index is higher by +13.4%. But note, that's just at the broadest level. Stock gains are even more impressive when you move down a layer or two. The NASDAQ Composite is up +5.8% this year and higher by +20% over the last three months. The Russell 2000 Index has surged over +9.5% in fifteen trading days and gained an eye-popping +34.8% over the previous ninety days. Interestingly, cyclical areas like Energy are leading markets higher in 2021. But Consumer Discretionary and Info Tech (the winners of 2020) are also still catching investors/traders' interest. Needless to say, the market has melted up, and we believe it's becoming harder to justify rising stock prices without a "cooling off" period from here. As the FactSet chart below highlights, not only does the S&P 500 sit well-above its 50-day and 200-day moving average, its relative strength index is currently flirting with levels close to an overbought condition (i.e., RSI levels at 70 or above). Since December, the Index has held near an overbought condition. And while that point alone isn't necessarily a reason to shy away from stocks today, it does increasingly look like prices reflect most of the positive market narrative at this point.

Transcript of Before the Bell...2021/01/26  · Industrials -0.69% -0.80% 743.3 Spot Silver (troy oz.) 0.30%...

Page 1: Before the Bell...2021/01/26  · Industrials -0.69% -0.80% 743.3 Spot Silver (troy oz.) 0.30% -3.71% 25.42 Materials -0.54% 2.23% 465.9 LME Copper (per ton) -0.35% 2.79% 7,965.50

 

FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES PLEASE SEE THE DISCLOSURE PAGES AT THE END OF THIS DOCUMENT Notations:

For further information on any of the topics mentioned, please contact your Financial Advisor. Unless specifically stated otherwise, comments contained in this document should not be construed as an investment opinion or

recommendation of any securities mentioned. Charts depicted are from FactSet unless otherwise noted. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.     Page 1 of 11  

Before the Bell Morning Market Brief

January 26, 2021

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY: Anthony M. Saglimbene, Global Market Strategist Quick Take: U.S. stock futures pointing to a flattish-to-higher open; European markets are trading higher; Asia

ended lower overnight; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil trading at $53.16; 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 1.05%.

Are Stock Prices Overheating? Not even a full month into 2021, and the S&P 500 Index is higher by over +2.5% on a price alone basis. Over the last three months, the Index is higher by +13.4%. But note, that's just at the broadest level. Stock gains are even more impressive when you move down a layer or two. The NASDAQ Composite is up +5.8% this year and higher by +20% over the last three months. The Russell 2000 Index has surged over +9.5% in fifteen trading days and gained an eye-popping +34.8% over the previous ninety days.

Interestingly, cyclical areas like Energy are leading markets higher in 2021. But Consumer Discretionary and Info Tech (the winners of 2020) are also still catching investors/traders' interest. Needless to say, the market has melted up, and we believe it's becoming harder to justify rising stock prices without a "cooling off" period from here.

As the FactSet chart below highlights, not only does the S&P 500 sit well-above its 50-day and 200-day moving average, its relative strength index is currently flirting with levels close to an overbought condition (i.e., RSI levels at 70 or above). Since December, the Index has held near an overbought condition. And while that point alone isn't necessarily a reason to shy away from stocks today, it does increasingly look like prices reflect most of the positive market narrative at this point.

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The second FactSet chart below also shows the broader stock benchmark currently has an elevated percentage of its constituents trading above their 200-day (longer-term) trading average. Again, these two points do not make stocks unattractive, but they show that investor expectations are very high. Investors have spent several months pushing stock prices higher in anticipation that 2021 would be a solid year for economic and profit growth. In our view, there is now little room for data and corporate earnings to disappoint at these price levels. Investors would be wise to temper their expectations for further stock gains from here and without accompanying data that supports the well-understood reopening narrative. Bottom line: Stocks may need additional "unexpected" positive catalysts to push materially higher.

 

 

The third FactSet chart at the top of the next page shows that investor sentiment has started to turn more bearish as of late. Worsening virus trends, the slow rollout of vaccines, elevated weekly jobless claims, and stretched valuations could be creating a stew of worries among the retail crowd. Updates on consumer confidence (today) and a final look at January U of M sentiment readings later this week could provide added clues on how Americans view current conditions. But from a market perspective, retail investors are becoming more concerned about the stock outlook over the next three-to-six months.

It's important to note, we believe the outlook for stocks this year remains positive. Notably, longer-term investors should maintain a constructive view on the economy, market trends, and an eventual fading of virus impacts. According to our base and favorable assumptions for this year, there is room for further gains if all goes as plan.

However, more tactical investors should be more cautious at these price levels and without a period of consolidation or a brief pullback. In our view, equity prices do not reflect a slow or choppy recovery this year or the possibility that vaccination rates could remain stalled well into spring. Bottom line: If the still difficult realities of the present start to dampen the outlook for the future, stock prices could face more turbulence in the weeks and months to come.

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Asia-Pacific: Asian equities finished lower on Tuesday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped over 2.5% overnight after the People's Bank of China (PBoC) withdrew funds from the financial system. Key advisors warned that ultra-low borrowing costs and excessive liquidity were creating market bubbles, according to Bloomberg. The PBoC unexpectedly withdrew $12 billion in open market operations overnight, which caused the Hang Seng to underperform the rest of Asia. The PBoC did not provide an official comment but has said it seeks to stabilize growth and curb risks.

Europe: Markets across the region are trading higher at midday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel told her Conservative party that management of the coronavirus has "slipped out of control." She advocated for stricter curbs in Germany to prevent a new wave of the disease. In the UK, unemployment is on the rise as the year gets underway. According to the Financial Times, Britain is expected to put stricter curbs on residents traveling back to the UK from countries with new/more virulent forms of the coronavirus.

U.S.: Equity futures are pointing to a flattish-to-higher open. Here is a quick news rundown to start your morning: Securing a deal by March. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is looking to secure a COVID-19 relief

deal by mid-March, and when the last packages' unemployment benefits run out. President Biden indicated yesterday he would be willing to negotiate with lawmakers to bring down his $1.9 trillion proposal price tag. Biden also said he could support lifting the income thresholds on those Americans that would qualify for additional stimulus checks.

Janet Yellen becomes the first woman to serve as U.S. Treasury Secretary. The former Federal Reserve Chair was confirmed by the Senate 84-15 Monday evening. In a series of firsts for the Brooklyn native, Mrs. Yellen will now be responsible for supporting the economic recovery through fiscal measures instead of her long history on the monetary side. The country's tax policy, government spending, financial stability, economic sanctions, and foreign-exchange policy will fall under her leadership. As Bloomberg noted, the new Treasury Secretary will immediately face an uphill battle in helping sell President Biden's economic recovery plan. She will likely be a principal negotiator in working on a deal with lawmakers.

The "Ludicrous Index." The Bespoke Investment Group index measures highly valued companies and usually coincides with rising investor concerns regarding extended market conditions. The S&P 500 Index has soared 75% from the March lows, which has helped 79 U.S. listed companies more than double in price over the past three months. As the Financial Times noted, these companies (all worth more than $500 million) trade at a price-to-sales ratio higher than 10. This is more than 3X the ratio of the S&P 500. At the height of the dotcom bubble in 2000, 120 companies shared the same characteristics, per Bespoke. While we wouldn't necessarily compare the dotcom bubble to today, some pockets of the market look extended — to say the least.

Earnings Update: With roughly 14% of S&P 500 profit reports complete, Q4'20 blended earnings per share (EPS) growth has declined by 4.9% y/y on sales growth of +0.4% y/y. As a point of reference, analysts

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expected EPS to fall roughly 13% on a sales decline of 1.3% at the end of September. Like the previous two quarters, Q4 "actual" results in aggregate are surpassing expectations, which up to this point in the earnings season, has helped support stock prices.

  

WORLD CAPITAL MARKETS 1/26/2021 As of: 8:30 AM ET

Americas % chg. % YTD Value Europe (Intra-day) % chg. %YTD Value Asia/Pacific (Last Night) % chg. %YTD ValueS&P 500 0.36% 2.72% 3,855.4 DJSTOXX 50 (Europe) 1.45% 1.63% 3,604.8 Nikkei 225 (Japan) -0.96% 4.02% 28,546.2 Dow Jones -0.12% 1.24% 30,960.0 FTSE 100 (U.K.) 0.80% 3.62% 6,692.3 Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -2.55% 7.93% 29,391.3 NASDAQ Composite 0.69% 5.82% 13,636.0 DAX Index (Germany) 1.97% 1.41% 13,912.9 Korea Kospi 100 -2.14% 9.29% 3,140.3 Russell 2000 -0.25% 9.57% 2,163.3 CAC 40 (France) 1.40% 0.10% 5,549.0 Singapore STI -0.95% 3.58% 2,945.5 Brazil Bovespa -0.80% -1.38% 117,381 FTSE MIB (Italy) 1.19% -1.07% 21,994.3 Shanghai Comp. (China) -1.51% 2.77% 3,569.4 S&P/TSX Comp. (Canada) 0.34% 2.91% 17,906.0 IBEX 35 (Spain) 1.19% -0.71% 7,991.4 Bombay Sensex (India) -1.09% 1.27% 48,347.6 Mexico IPC 0.99% 2.43% 45,126.5 MOEX Index (Russia) -0.08% 3.35% 3,394.9 S&P/ASX 200 (Australia) 0.36% 3.61% 6,824.7

Global % chg. % YTD Value Developed International % chg. %YTD Value Emerging International % chg. %YTD ValueMSCI All-Country World Idx 0.21% 3.44% 668.1 MSCI EAFE -0.58% 1.89% 2,187.2 MSCI Emerging Mkts 1.25% 9.23% 1,410.2

Note: International market returns shown on a local currency basis. The equity index data shown above is on a total return basis, inclusive of div idends.

S&P 500 Sectors % chg. % YTD Value Commodities Communication Services 0.37% 2.50% 227.0 Equity Income Indices % chg. % YTD Value Futures & Spot (Intra-day) % chg. % YTD ValueConsumer Discretionary 0.31% 5.37% 1,372.4 JPM Alerian MLP Index 0.20% 8.61% 150.7 CRB Raw Industrials 0.36% 4.46% 533.49 Consumer Staples 0.91% -2.80% 675.8 FTSE NAREIT Comp. TR 0.69% 1.33% 20,528.2 NYMEX WTI Crude (p/bbl.) 0.66% 9.48% 53.12 Energy -1.06% 9.83% 314.2 DJ US Select Dividend 0.31% 4.31% 2,280.0 ICE Brent Crude (p/bbl.) 0.61% 8.53% 56.22 Financials -0.76% 2.12% 500.3 DJ Global Select Dividend 0.59% 4.38% 226.3 NYMEX Nat Gas (mmBtu) 1.77% 4.29% 2.65 Health Care 0.65% 4.31% 1,379.9 S&P Div. Aristocrats 0.22% 1.15% 3,372.1 Spot Gold (troy oz.) -0.05% -2.28% 1,855.05 Industrials -0.69% -0.80% 743.3 Spot Silver (troy oz.) 0.30% -3.71% 25.42

Materials -0.54% 2.23% 465.9 LME Copper (per ton) -0.35% 2.79% 7,965.50 Real Estate 0.82% 1.49% 231.2 Bond Indices % chg. % YTD Value LME Aluminum (per ton) 1.18% 2.37% 2,020.33 Technology 0.88% 3.02% 2,359.6 Barclays US Agg. Bond 0.22% -0.53% 2,379.4 CBOT Corn (cents p/bushel) 1.42% 7.18% 518.75 Utilities 1.95% 2.14% 325.9 Barclays HY Bond 0.00% 0.48% 2,349.3 CBOT Wheat (cents p/bushel) -0.12% 1.13% 647.75

Foreign Exchange (Intra-day) % chg. % YTD Value % chg. % YTD Value % chg. % YTD ValueEuro (€/$) 0.06% -0.57% 1.21 Japanese Yen ($/¥) 0.01% -0.47% 103.74 Canadian Dollar ($/C$) 0.20% 0.09% 1.27British Pound (£/$) 0.18% 0.21% 1.37 Australian Dollar (A$/$) 0.27% 0.52% 0.77 Swiss Franc ($/CHF) 0.00% -0.37% 0.89Data/Price Source: Bloomberg. Equity Index data is total return, inclusive of dividends, where applicable.

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BY THE NUMBERS: ECONOMIC ACTUALS AND FORECAST:  

ECONOMIC NEWS OUT TODAY: Economic Releases for Tuesday, January 26, 2021. All times Eastern. Consensus estimates via Bloomberg. Time Period Release Consensus Est. Actual Prior Revised to 10:00 AM JAN Consumer Confidence 89.0 88.6 Economic Perspective: Russell T. Price, CFA – Chief Economist Now we have a shortage of cars?!? This has been an economic downturn like no other. Yet another dynamic we

can add to the list of unusual circumstances is a shortage of new automobiles for sale. The situation has recently been made worse by a shortage of semiconductor chips used in the industry. The situation will likely weigh modestly in economic activity as well as add to what we believe will be building inflation pressures in the months ahead.

New auto inventories were already low prior to the pandemic. In normal periods this can be a positive as it would be a strong source of support for the manufacturing sector. But as with most non-essential industries, auto manufacturers were forced to close in the spring to stem the spread of the virus. Auto sales then rebounded much faster than did production, leading to further depletion of inventories.

Although production levels have been improving, they have barely been able to keep up with demand. Further, auto production schedules have recently been curtailed by a global shortage of semiconductors commonly used in many automobile models. Dealers will also have stronger pricing power under such conditions, leaving the sector to contribute more to consumer inflation metrics over the next several months. The chart at right is sourced from FactSet.

Over the intermediate-term, this situation is likely to: Depress manufacturing /industrial production numbers slightly Weigh on retail sales / monthly new car sales modestly Add modestly to what we already see as likely to be rising inflation pressures

By extension, the tight supply of new autos is also likely to provide upside pressure for used autos as well. According to Moody’s Analytics Used Vehicle Price Index, used car prices were a remarkable 16% higher year-over-year on average over the second half of 2020. The upward price pressure resulted from greater demand caused by people shunning public transport options as well as lower supply. In addition to the production shutdowns, fewer vehicles came off lease as many lessors chose to extend their leases or buy their vehicles given the lack of supply and a desire to avoid going into dealerships.  

Current Projections:Actual Actual Est. Est. Actual Actual Actual Actual Est. Est. Est.2018 2019 2020 2021 Q4-2019 Q1-2020 Q2-2020 Q3-2020 Q4-2020 Q1-2021 Q2-2021

Real GDP (YOY) 3.0% 2.2% -3.5% 3.8% 2.1% -5.0% -31.4% 33.1% 5.5% 2.5% 4.8%

Unemployment Rate 3.9% 3.5% 6.8% 5.0% 3.5% 4.4% 11.1% 7.9% 6.8% 6.5% 5.8%

CPI (YoY) 2.4% 1.8% 1.3% 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 0.4% 1.4% 1.3% 2.0% 3.2%

Core PCE (YoY) 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 2.5%

Sources: Historical data via FactSet. Estimates (Est.) via American Enterprise Investment Services Inc.

YoY = Year-over-year, Unemployment numbers are period ending. GDP: Gross Domestic Product; CPI: Consumer Price Index

All estimates other than GDP are period ending.

PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. Core excludes food and energy.

Full-year Quarterly

Last Updated: January 7, 2021

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FIXED INCOME NEWS & VIEWS: Brian M. Erickson, CFA, Fixed Income Research & Strategy 2020 Took a Toll on Lower Rated Corporate Credits The overall credit quality of the speculative-grade corporate market deteriorated meaningfully through 2020.

Companies borrowed to increase liquidity and to buy time to navigate the pandemic closures and disruption of demand. Unfortunately, while buying time, raising cash by issuing debt comes with a hang-over; more leverage and higher debt service.

Leading up to last year, companies had already taken on more debt, attracted by low borrowing costs and the attractive boost to equity returns. When a company can borrow at two or three percent and buy back shares, its optimal capital structure dictates higher leverage. While leverage proves shareholder-friendly, it eliminates the opportunity to borrow in the future and further limits a company's ability to respond to competitive dynamics. As a result, credit rating agencies take this into account through lower ratings, which imply a greater chance of default.

Across speculative-grade or non-investment grade issuers, the share of the lowest-rated companies steadily increased since 2012. Companies rated Caa1 or lower by Moody’s Investors Service had one in six probability of default in one year and a one in four chance of default over two years between 1994 and 2019 on a dollar-weighted basis. The share of Caa2 or lower-rated companies rose from the mid-teens in 2012 to 38% at the end of 2020. The risk of high yield across the board increased, and prospects for further defaults remain high.

We believe U.S. default rates likely top 10% in our Base Scenario, with global defaults peaking in the 8-10% range. Further stimulus, as proposed by President Biden, likely delays defaults rather than avoids them entirely. Should congress pass yet another round of spending, we would anticipate business failures and restructurings peak around 9% and remain above Moody’s 4% long-term average.

Finally, the pandemic impact differed significantly from industry to industry. The chart below from Moody’s shows the most impacted sectors in red and less-impacted sectors in green. The vertical access shows the portion of the industry facing default between March and December 2020, with Oil & Gas leading with approximately 22% of the sector defaulting. The horizontal access reflects each sector's share rated Caa2 or lower ahead of the March market sell-off. The pandemic’s impact leveled an uneven impact across industries that we believe a selective or active approach may be more successful in navigating.

See chart on next page… What we recommend: We noted through 2020 how larger, more diversified companies with investment-grade ratings

retained the financial flexibility to use debt to push out maturities and to adjust businesses for evolving consumer and business demand through pandemic disruptions. We believe high-quality corporates with strong market positions and considerable financial flexibility were then and are now positioned to take advantage of shifting demand and thrive. As a result, we remain tactically (6 to 12-month timeframe) Overweight Investment Grade Corporate Bonds.

Within High Yield Bond and the Bank loan sector, we recommend a highly active approach and believe investors look to managers that take a more measured risk in the space. With yields compressed, now is not the time to be all-in on the riskiest parts of the segment. Also, simply passively buying the sector not only comes with much greater risk today, if our default forecast proves on-point, High Yield Bonds may also underperform Investment Grade Corporate Bonds after considering defaults.

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Sources: American Enterprise Investment Services Inc and Moody’s.

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Ameriprise Investment Research Group Ameriprise Financial 1441 West Long Lake Road, Suite 250, Troy, MI 48098 [email protected] For additional information or to locate your nearest branch office, visit ameriprise.com RESEARCH & DUE DILIGENCE LEADER

Lyle B. Schonberger - Vice President Business Unit Compliance Liaison (BUCL) Jeff Carlson, CLU, ChFC – Sr. Manager Investment Research Coordinator Kimberly K. Shores Sr. Administrative Assistant Jillian Willis STRATEGISTS Chief Market Strategist David M. Joy – Vice President Global Market Strategist Anthony M. Saglimbene – Vice President

Thomas Crandall, CFA, CMT, CAIA – Sr. Director, Asset Allocation Cedric Buermann Jr., CFA – Analyst – Quantitative, Asset Allocation

Gaurav Sawhney – Research Analyst

Amit Tiwari – Sr. Research Associate Chief Economist Russell T. Price, CFA – Vice President Retirement Research Jay C. Untiedt, CFA, CAIA, RICP – Vice President EQUITY RESEARCH Equity Research Director Justin H. Burgin – Vice President

Consumer Goods and Services Patrick S. Diedrickson, CFA – Director

Energy/Utilities William Foley, ASIP – Director

Financial Services/REITs Lori Wilking-Przekop – Sr Director

Health Care Daniel Garofalo – Director

Industrials/Materials Frederick M. Schultz – Director

Technology/Telecommunication Open

MANAGER RESEARCH

Michael V. Jastrow, CFA – Vice President

Mark Phelps, CFA – Director – Multi-Asset Solutions ETFs, CEFs, UITs Jeffrey R. Lindell, CFA – Director

James P. Johnson, CFA, CFP® – Sr Analyst Alternatives Justin E. Bell, CFA – Vice President – Head of Quantitative Research and Alternatives

Kay S. Nachampassak – Director - Alternatives Quantitative Research Kurt J. Merkle, CFA, CFP®, CAIA – Sr Director

Peter W. LaFontaine – Sr Analyst

David Hauge, CFA – Analyst

Blake Hockert – Sr Associate

Bishnu Dhar – Sr Research Analyst

Parveen Vedi – Sr Research Associate

Darakshan Ali – Research Process Trainee Equities Christine A. Pederson, CAIA, CIMA – Sr Director – Growth Equity, Infrastructure & REIT

Benjamin L. Becker, CFA – Director – International/Global Equity

Cynthia Tupy, CFA – Director – Value and Equity Income Equity

Alex Zachman, CFA – Analyst – Core Equity Fixed Income Steven T. Pope, CFA, CFP® – Sr Director – Non-Core Fixed Income

Douglas D. Noah, CFA – Sr Analyst – Core Taxable & Tax-Exempt Fixed Income

FIXED INCOME RESEARCH & STRATEGY

Fixed Income Research Brian M. Erickson, CFA – Vice President High Yield and Investment Grade Credit Jon Kyle Cartwright – Sr. Director

Stephen Tufo – Director

RETIREMENT RESEARCH

Jay C. Untiedt, CFA, CAIA, RICP – Vice President

Nidhi Khandelwal – Director

Matt Morgan – Sr. Manager

 

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The content in this report is authored by American Enterprise Investment Services Inc. (“AEIS”) and distributed by Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC (“AFS”) to financial advisors and clients of AFS. AEIS and AFS are affiliates and subsidiaries of Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Both AEIS and AFS are member firms registered with FINRA and are subject to the objectivity safeguards and disclosure requirements relating to research analysts and the publication and distribution of research reports. The “Important Disclosures” below relate to the AEIS research analyst(s) that prepared this publication. The “Disclosures of Possible Conflicts of Interest” section, where applicable, relates to the conflicts of interest of each of AEIS and AFS, their affiliates and their research analysts, as applicable, with respect to the subject companies mentioned in the report. Each of AEIS and AFS have implemented policies and procedures reasonably designed to ensure that its employees involved in the preparation, content and distribution of research reports, including dually registered employees, do not influence the objectivity or timing of the publication of research report content. All research policies, coverage decisions, compensation, hiring and other personnel decisions with respect to research analysts are made by AEIS, which is operationally independent of AFS. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES As of December 31, 2020 The views expressed regarding the company(ies) and sector(s) featured in this publication reflect the personal views of the research analyst(s) authoring the publication. Further, no part of research analyst compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this publication. A part of a research analyst’s compensation may be based upon overall firm revenue and profitability, of which investment banking, sales and trading, and principal trading are components. No part of a research analyst’s compensation is based on a specific investment banking transaction, nor is it based on sales, trading, or principal trading. A research analyst may have visited the material operations of one or more of the subject companies mentioned in this research report. No payment was received for the related travel costs. Additional information and current research disclosures on individual companies mentioned in this research report are available on our website at ameriprise.com/legal/disclosures in the Additional Ameriprise research disclosures section, or through your Ameriprise financial advisor. You may also submit a written request to Ameriprise Financial, Inc., 1441 West Long Lake Road, Troy MI, 48098. Independent third-party research on individual companies is available to clients at ameriprise.com/research-market-insights. SEC filings may be viewed at sec.gov. Tactical asset class recommendations mentioned in this report reflect The Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee’s general view of the financial markets, as of the date of the report, based on then current conditions. Our tactical recommendations may differ materially from what is presented in a customized long-term financial plan or portfolio strategy. You should view our recommendations in conjunction with a broader long-term portfolio strategy. Not all products, services, or asset classes mentioned in this report may be available for sale at Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Please consult with your financial advisor. Diversification and Asset Allocation do not assure a profit or protect against loss. RISK FACTORS Dividend and interest payments are not guaranteed. The amount of dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce or eliminate dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer. Should a company be unable to pay interest

on a timely basis a default may occur and interruption or reduction of interest and principal occur. Investments in a narrowly focused sector may exhibit higher volatility than investments with broader objectives and is subject to market risk and economic risk. Income Risk: We note that dividends are declared solely at the discretion of the companies’ boards of directors. Dividend cuts or eliminations will likely negatively impact underlying company valuations. Published dividend yields are calculated before fees and taxes. Dividends paid by foreign companies to ADR holders may be subject to a withholding tax which could adversely affect the realized dividend yield. In certain circumstances, investors in ADR shares have the option to receive dividends in the form of cash payments, rights shares or ADR shares. Each form of dividend payment will have different tax consequences and therefore generate a different yield. In some instances, ADR holders are eligible to reclaim a portion of the withholding tax. International investing involves increased risk and volatility due to political and economic instability, currency fluctuations, and differences in financial reporting and accounting standards and oversight. Risks are particularly significant in emerging markets. Market Risk: Equity markets in general could sustain significant volatility due to several factors. As we have seen recently, both economic and geopolitical issues could have a material impact on this model portfolio and the equity market as a whole. Quantitative Strategy Risk: Stock selection and portfolio maintenance strategies based on quantitative analytics carry a unique set of risks. Quantitative strategies rely on comprehensive, accurate and thorough historical data. The Ameriprise Investment Research Group utilizes current and historical data provided by third-party data vendors. Material errors in database construction and maintenance could have an adverse effect on quantitative research and the resulting stock selection strategies. PRODUCT RISK DISCLOSURES Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value. For additional information on individual ETFs, see available third-party research which provides additional investment highlights. SEC filings may be viewed at sec.gov

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All fixed income securities are subject to a series of risks which may include, but are not limited to: interest rate risk, call risk, refunding risk, default risk, inflations risk, liquidity risk and event risk. Please review these risks with your financial advisor to better understand how these risks may affect your investment choices. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities. This means you may lose money if you sell a bond prior to maturity as a result of interest rate or other market movement. Any information relating to the income or capital gains tax treatment of financial instruments or strategies discussed herein is not intended to provide specific tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. A real estate investment trust or REIT is a company that owns and operates income-producing real estate. In addition, some REITs participate in the financing of real estate. To qualify as a REIT, a company must: I) invest at least 75% of its total assets in real estate assets, II) generate at least 75% of its gross income from real property or interest, and III) pay at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders in the form of distributions. A company that qualifies as a REIT is permitted to deduct the distributions paid to shareholders from its corporate taxes. Consequently, many REITs target to payout at least 100% of taxable income, resulting in virtually no corporate taxes. An investment in a REIT is subject to many of the same risks as a direct investment in real estate including, but not limited to: Illiquidity and valuation complexities, redemption restrictions, distribution and diversification limits, tax consequences, fees, defaults by borrowers or tenants, market saturation, balloon payments, refinancing, bankruptcy, decreases in market rates for rents and other economic, political, or regulatory occurrences affecting the real estate industry. Ratings are provided by Moody’s Investors Services and Standard & Poor’s. Non-Investment grade securities, commonly known as "high-yield" or "junk" bonds, are historically subject to greater risk of default, including the loss of principal and interest, than higher-rated bonds, which may result in greater price volatility than experienced with a higher-rated issue. Securities offered through AFSI may not be suitable for all investors. Consult with your financial advisor for more information regarding the suitability of a particular investment. For further information on fixed income securities please refer to FINRA’s Smart Bond Investing at FINRA.org, MSRB’s Electronic Municipal Market Access at emma.msrb.org, or Investing in Bonds at investinginbonds.com. Alternative investments cover a broad range of strategies and structures designed to be low or non-correlated to traditional equity and fixed-income markets with a long-term expectation of illiquidity. Alternative investments involve substantial risks

and are more volatile than traditional investments, making them more suitable for investors with an above-average tolerance for risk. Growth securities, at times, may not perform as well as value securities or the stock market in general and may be out of favor with investors. Value securities may be unprofitable if the market fails to recognize their intrinsic worth or the portfolio manager misgauged that worth. DEFINITIONS OF TERMS Agency – Agency bonds are issued by Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE), but are NOT direct obligations of the U.S. government. Common GSE’s are the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. (Freddie Mac) Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB). Beta: A measure of the risk arising from exposure to general market movements as opposed to company-specific factors. Betas in this report, unless otherwise noted, use the S&P 500 as the market benchmark and result from calculations over historic periods. A beta below 1.0, for example, can suggest the equity has tended to move with lower volatility than the broader market or, due to company-specific factors, has had higher volatility but generally low correlations with the overall market. Corporate Bonds – Are debt instruments issued by a private corporation. Non-Investment grade securities, commonly known as “high-yield” or “junk” bonds, are historically subject to greater risk of default, including the loss of principal and interest, than higher-rated bonds, which may result in greater price volatility than experienced with a higher-rated issue. Mortgage Backed Securities – Bonds are subject to prepayment risk. Yield and average lives shown consider prepayment assumptions that may not be met. Changes in payments may significantly affect yield and average life. Please contact your financial advisor for information on CMOs and how they react to different market conditions. Municipal Bonds – Interest income may be subject to state and/or local income taxes and/or the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Municipal securities subject to AMT assume a “nontaxable” status for yield calculations. Certain municipal bond income may be subject to federal income tax and are identified as “taxable”. Gains on sales/redemptions of municipal bonds may be taxed as capital gains. If the bonds are insured, the insurance pertains to the timely payment of principal (at maturity) and interest by the insurer of the underlying securities and not to the price of the bond, which will fluctuate prior to maturity. The guarantees are backed by the claims-paying ability of the listed insurance company. Treasury Securities – There is no guarantee as to the market value of these securities if they are sold prior to maturity or redemption. Price/Book: A financial ratio used to compare a company’s market share price, as of a certain date, to its book value per

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share. Book value relates to the accounting value of assets and liabilities in a company’s balance sheet. It is generally not a direct reflection of future earnings prospects or hard to value intangibles, such as brand, that could help generate those earnings. Price/Earnings: An equity valuation multiple calculated by dividing the market share price, as of a certain date, by earnings per share. Trailing P/E uses the share price divided by the past four-quarters’ earnings per share. Forward P/E uses the share price as of a certain date divided by the consensus estimate of the future four-quarters’ EPS. Price/Sales: An equity valuation multiple calculated by dividing the market share price, as of a certain date, by the company’s sales per share over the most recent year. INDEX DEFINITIONS An index is a statistical composite that is not managed. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Definitions of individual indices mentioned in this report are available on our website at ameriprise.com/legal/disclosures in the Additional Ameriprise research disclosures section, or through your Ameriprise financial advisor. DISCLAIMER SECTION Except for the historical information contained herein, certain matters in this report are forward-looking statements or projections that are dependent upon certain risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to, such factors and considerations as general market volatility, global economic and geopolitical impacts, fiscal and monetary policy, liquidity, the level of interest rates, historical sector performance relationships as they relate to the business and economic cycle, consumer preferences, foreign currency exchange rates, litigation risk, competitive positioning, the ability to successfully integrate acquisitions, the ability to develop and commercialize new products and services, legislative risks, the pricing environment for products and services, and compliance with various local, state, and federal health care laws. See latest third-party research reports and updates for risks pertaining to a particular security. This summary is based upon financial information and statistical data obtained from sources deemed reliable, but in no way is warranted by Ameriprise Financial, Inc. as to accuracy or completeness. This is not a solicitation by Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC of any order to buy or sell securities. This summary is based exclusively on an analysis of general current market conditions, rather than the appropriateness of a specific proposed securities transaction. We will not advise you as to any change in figures or our views. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investment products are not federally or FDIC-insured, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by any financial institution, and involve investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value.

Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC and its affiliates do not offer tax or legal advice. Consumers should consult with their tax advisor or attorney regarding their specific situation. Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC. Member FINRA and SIPC.