Bd rev 102911
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Transcript of Bd rev 102911
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Blu-ray Weekly Revenue Trend (Week Ending 01/13/08 to 10/29/11)
with linear trendline
and current week level line and YTD average level line
and 4Q sales highlighted in blue and YTY comparison weeks in red
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Blu-ray Weekly Revenue Trend ($M) (week ending 1/06/08 thru 10/29/11)
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Blu-ray Revenue Trend4 per. Mov. Avg. (Blu-ray Revenue Trend)
$0
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$100
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Blu-ray Revenues 2011 vs 2010 by matching YTY weeks HMM ($M)
2011 2010
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January February March April May June July August September October November December
Blu-ray Revenues (Matched Weeks 2008 2009 2010 2011 ) $ M
2008 Blu-ray 2009 Blu-ray
2010 Blu-ray 2011 Blu-ray
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Blu-ray Quarterly Revenue Trend 2008 - 2011 (as of 10/29/11)
Cumulative Weekly HMM Published Data
Even 7 Day Mon-Sun Reporting Weeks x 13 Even 7 day Sun - Sat Reporting Week starting 12/18/10
4Q Week 4/13
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1Q 2011 vs 1Q 2010 by matching YTY weeks ($ M)
1Q 2011 1Q 2010
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2Q 2011 vs 2Q 2010 by matching YTY weeks ($ M)
2Q 2011 2Q 2010
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
3Q 2011 vs 3Q 2010 by matching YTY weeks ($ M)
3Q 2011 3Q 2010
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
4Q 2011 vs 4Q 2010 by matching YTY weeks ($ M)
4Q 2011 4Q 2010
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
1Q 2011 vs 1Q 2010 sorted by relative quarterly revenue performance ($ M)
1Q 2011 1Q 2010
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
2Q 2011 vs 2Q 2010 sorted by relative quarterly revenue performance ($ M)
2Q 2011 2Q 2010
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
3Q 2011 vs 3Q 2010 sorted by relative quarterly revenue performance ($ M)
3Q 2011 3Q 2010
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
4Q 2011 vs 4Q 2010 sorted by relative quarterly revenue performance ($ M)
4Q 2011 4Q 2010
-50.00%
0.00%
50.00%
100.00%
150.00%
200.00%
8-Jan 22-Jan 5-Feb 19-Feb 5-Mar 19-Mar 2-Apr 16-Apr 30-Apr 14-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug 3-Sep 17-Sep 1-Oct 15-Oct 29-Oct
Blu-ray YTY Change DVD YTY Change Total DVD+BD Change from Previous Year Matching Weeks
-50.00%
-30.00%
-10.00%
10.00%
30.00%
50.00%
70.00%
90.00%
8-Jan 22-Jan 5-Feb 19-Feb 5-Mar 19-Mar 2-Apr 16-Apr 30-Apr 14-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug 3-Sep 17-Sep 1-Oct 15-Oct 29-Oct
Blu-ray YTY Change DVD YTY Change Total DVD+BD Change from Previous Year Matching Weeks
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
8-Jan 22-Jan 5-Feb 19-Feb 5-Mar 19-Mar 2-Apr 16-Apr 30-Apr 14-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug 3-Sep 17-Sep 1-Oct 15-Oct 29-Oct
Blu-ray 2011 Cumulative YTD YoY Gain Trend
-22%
-20%
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
J-11 J-11 F-11 F-11 M-11 M-11 A-11 A-11 A-11 M-11 M-11 J-11 J-11 J-11 J-11 A-11 A-11 S-11 S-11 O-11 O-11 O-11
DVD+Blu-ray (OD) 2011 Cumulative YTD YoY Gain Trend
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
8-Jan 22-Jan 5-Feb 19-Feb 5-Mar 19-Mar 2-Apr 16-Apr 30-Apr 14-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug 3-Sep 17-Sep 1-Oct 15-Oct 29-Oct
Blu-ray and OD 2011 Cumulative YTD YoY Gain Trend
Cumulative YTD Blu-ray YoY Gain OD YTD Cumulative YoY Gain
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HMM Reported DVD and Blu-ray Revenue Sales Trends
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100
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600
700
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
Blu-ray and DVD Revenues Full Year (Matched Weeks 2008 2009 2010 2011)
2008 DVD 2009 DVD 2008 Blu-ray2009 Blu-ray 2010 DVD 2010 Blu-ray2010 DVD+BD 2009 DVD+BD 2011 DVD2011 Blu-ray 2011 Blu-ray+DVD
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
HMM reported DVD and Blu-ray Revenue Sales Trends
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100
200
300
400
500
600
700
J-08 F-08M-08 A-08M-08 J-08 J-08 A-08 S-08O-08 N-08D-08 J-09 F-09M-09 A-09M-09 J-09 J-09 A-09 S-09O-09 N-09D-09 J-10 F-10M-10 A-10M-10 J-10 J-10 A-10 S-10O-10 N-10D-10 J-11 F-11M-11 A-11M-11 J-11 J-11 A-11 S-11O-11
DVD Revenues
Blu-ray Revenues ($M) (overlaid & non stacked)
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DVD Revenues (stacked on top of Blu-ray) Blu-ray Revenues (stacked under DVD)
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J-08F-08M-08A-08M-08J-08J-08A-08S-08O-08N-08D-08J-09F-09M-09A-09M-09J-09J-09A-09S-09O-09N-09D-09J-10F-10M-10A-10M-10J-10J-10A-10S-10O-10N-10D-10J-11F-11M-11A-11M-11J-11J-11A-11S-11O-11
Blu-ray Revenues DVD Revenues
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100
200
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400
500
600
700
J-08F-08M-08A-08M-08J-08J-08A-08S-08O-08N-08D-08J-09F-09M-09A-09M-09J-09J-09A-09S-09O-09N-09D-09J-10F-10M-10A-10M-10J-10J-10A-10S-10O-10N-10D-10J-11F-11M-11A-11M-11J-11J-11A-11S-11O-11
Blu-ray Revenues
DVD Revenues
DVD+BD Revenues
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1400
1600
1800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
Cumulative Blu-ray Revenues (Matched Weeks) ($ M)
2008 2009 2010 2011
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2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
Cumulative Blu-ray and DVD Revenues (Matched Weeks)
2008 DVD 2009 DVD 2008 Blu-ray
2009 Blu-ray 2010 DVD 2010 Blu-ray
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
Cumulative Blu-ray and DVD Revenues (Matched Weeks)
2008 DVD 2008 Blu-ray 2008 DVD+BD 2009 DVD
2009 Blu-ray 2009 DVD+BD 2010 DVD 2010 Blu-ray
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
Dual Axis Cumulative Blu-ray and DVD Revenues Axis Scale Adjusted to Match DVD and Blu-ray 2008 Seasonal Trend
(Compares Succesive Blu-ray Seasonal Sales Acceleration Rates to DVD )
2008 Blu-ray 2009 Blu-ray
2010 Blu-ray 2011 Blu-ray
2008 DVD 2009 DVD
2010 DVD 2011 DVD
Blu-ray $ M
DVD $ M
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
J-08 M-08 M-08 J-08 S-08 N-08 J-09 M-09 M-09 J-09 S-09 N-09 J-10 M-10 M-10 J-10 S-10 N-10 J-11 M-11 M-11 J-11 S-11
Cumulative Blu-ray Sell Through Revenues $M
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
E1Q2008
E2Q2008
E3Q2008
E4Q2008
E1Q2009
E2Q2009
E3Q2009
E4Q2009
E1Q2010
E2Q2010
E3Q2010
4QTD2010
E1Q2011
E2Q2011
E3Q2011
4QTD2011
Blu-ray Revenue Marketshare by Quarter 2008-2011 (HMM published data (weighted average per quarter)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
E1Q2008
E2Q2008
E3Q2008
E4Q2008
E1Q2009
E2Q2009
E3Q2009
E4Q2009
E1Q2010
E2Q2010
E3Q2010
4QTD2010
E1Q2011
E2Q2011
E3Q2011
4QTD2011
Blu-ray Top 20 Sellers Unit Marketshare by Quarter 2008-2011 (HMM published data (non weighted average)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
J-08F-08M-08A-08M-08J-08J-08A-08S-08O-08N-08D-08J-09F-09M-09A-09M-09J-09J-09A-09S-09O-09N-09D-09J-10F-10M-10A-10M-10J-10J-10A-10S-10O-10N-10D-10J-11F-11M-11A-11M-11J-11J-11A-11S-11O-11
Blu-ray Revenue Market Share (BD/(BD+DVD) REVENUE)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
2008 2009
2010 2011
Blu-Ray Revenue Share Percentage (BD / (BD+DVD))
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
J-08 F-08M-08 A-08M-08 J-08 J-08 A-08 S-08 O-08 N-08 D-08 J-09 F-09M-09 A-09M-09 J-09 J-09 A-09 S-09 O-09 N-09 D-09 J-10 F-10M-10 A-10M-10 J-10 J-10 A-10 S-10 O-10 N-10 D-10 J-11 F-11M-11 A-11M-11 J-11 J-11 A-11 S-11 O-11
BD Top 20 Sellers Unit % - Blu-ray Unit Marketshareof All Titles on Top 20 Sellers Chart
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
Top 20 Sellers 2010 BD Unit% Top 20 Sellers 2009 BD% After 7/19/09
Total Market Blu-ray Unit Marketshare % Top 20 Sellers BD% 2011
BD Top 20 Sellers Unit % - Blu-ray Unit Marketshare Of All Titles on Top 20 Sellers List - YTY Comparison
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
J-08 M-08 M-08 J-08 S-08 N-08 J-09 M-09 M-09 J-09 S-09 N-09 J-10 M-10 M-10 J-10 S-10 N-10 J-11 M-11 M-11 J-11 S-11
DVD and Blu-ray Format Revenue Share by Week
Blu-ray Contribution DVD Contribution Source: Nielsen Videoscan first alert and Home Media Magazine Research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
J-08 M-08 M-08 J-08 S-08 N-08 J-09 M-09 M-09 J-09 S-09 N-09 J-10 M-10 M-10 J-10 S-10 N-10 J-11 M-11 M-11 J-11 S-11
DVD and Blu-ray Format Nielsen Videoscan Top 20 Unit Share by Week
Blu-ray Contribution DVD Contribution Source: Nielsen Videoscan first alert and Home Media Magazine Research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan
-08
Feb
-08
Mar
-08
Ap
r-0
8
May
-08
Jun
-08
Jul-
08
Au
g-0
8
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
No
v-0
8
De
c-0
8
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Ap
r-0
9
May
-09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-0
9
De
c-0
9
Jan
-10
Feb
-10
Mar
-10
Ap
r-1
0
May
-10
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-1
0
Sep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Ap
r-1
1
May
-11
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Au
g-1
1
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
No
v-1
1
Blu-ray Revenue vs Top 20 Sellers Unit Marketshare Growth 2008-2011
Blu-ray Revenue Share (New Pie Chart Since 7/19/09)
Blu-ray Top 20 Sellers Unit % (Old Pie Chart before 7/12/09)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11
Blu-ray Revenue vs Top 20 Sellers Unit Marketshare Growth 2009-2011
Blu-ray Revenue Share Blu-ray Top 20 Sellers Unit Marketshare %
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11
Blu-ray revenue vs Top 20 Sellers Unit Marketshare Growth 2010-2011
Blu-ray Revenue Share Blu-ray Top 20 Sellers Unit Marketshare %
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-11 Jan-11 Feb-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 May-11 May-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Oct-11 Oct-11
Blu-ray revenue vs Top 20 Sellers Unit Marketshare Growth 2011
Blu-ray Revenue Share Blu-ray Top 20 Sellers Unit Marketshare %
-
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010
DVD New Release Revenue Trends 2007- 2010 Top 100 DVD Titles The-Numbers
-
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010
New Release Revenue Trends 2007 - 2011
80% of Blu-ray Total Sell Through Revenues (HMM)
DVD New Release Revenues (Top 100 Titles The-Numbers)
-
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010
New Release Revenue Trends 2007- 2011
DVD New Release Revenues (Top 100 Titles The-Numbers)Blu-ray Total Sell Through Revenues (HMM)
-
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Q1-Q3)*2 (Q1-Q3 2011)
DVD New Release Revenue Trends 2007- 2011 Top 100 DVD Titles (The-Numbers)
(500,000,000)
500,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,500,000,000
4,500,000,000
5,500,000,000
6,500,000,000
7,500,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Q1-Q3)*2 (Q1-Q3 2011)
80% of Blu-ray Revenue Trends 2007 - 2011 (Assumed New Release Revenue Contribution)
-
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Q1-Q3)*2 (Q1-Q3 2011)
New Release Revenue Trends 2007 - 2011
80% of Blu-ray Total Sell Through Revenues (HMM)
DVD New Release Revenues (Top 100 Titles The-Numbers)
-
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Q1-Q3)*2 (Q1-Q3 2011)
New Release Revenue Trends 2007 - 2011
DVD New Release Revenues (Top 100 Titles The-Numbers)80% of Blu-ray Total Sell Through Revenues (HMM)
-
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Q1-Q3)*2 (Q1-Q3 2011)
DVD New Release Revenue Trends 2007- 2011 Top 100 DVD Titles The-Numbers
-
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Q1-Q3)*2 (Q1-Q3 2011)
Total Blu-ray Sell Through Revenue Trends 2007 - 2011
-
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Q1-Q3)*2 (Q1-Q3 2011)
New Release Revenue Trends 2007- 2011
DVD New Release Revenues (Top 100 Titles The-Numbers)Blu-ray Total Sell Through Revenues (HMM)
-
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Q1-Q3)*2 (Q1-Q3 2011)
New Release Revenue Trends 2007 - 2011
Blu-ray Total Sell Through Revenues (HMM)DVD New Release Revenues (Top 100 Titles The-Numbers)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Blu-ray Quarterly Revenue Trend 2008 - 2011 (as of 10/22/11)
Cumulative Weekly HMM Published Data
Even 7 Day Mon-Sun Reporting Weeks x 13 Even 7 day Sun - Sat Reporting Week starting 12/18/10
4Q Week 3/13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Blu-ray Quarterly Revenue Trend 2008 - 2011 (as of 10/22/11)
Cumulative Weekly HMM Published Data
Even 7 Day Mon-Sun Reporting Weeks x 13 Even 7 day Sun - Sat Reporting Week starting 12/18/10
4Q Week 3/13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Blu-ray Quarterly Revenue Trend 2008 - 2011 (as of 10/31/11)
Rentrak / DEG Data by Quarter