BCI Horizon Scan 2016 Results

Patrick Alcantara DBCI

Senior Research Associate

Business Continuity Institute (BCI)

Ian Farrer MBCI

Director, Business Risk & Resilience

Pearson

Identify near-term threats

on the radar of BC practitioners worldwide

Benchmark horizon scanning activity

Look out for trends that may influence

businesses in the medium- and long-term

Today’s agenda

The headlines

• Cyber attacks (85%) remain the top threat practitioners are concerned

about. However, concerns over physical incidents rise significantly this year

with acts of terrorism and security incidents at fourth and fifth respectively.

• The use of the Internet for malicious attacks (83%), growing influence of

social media (63%) and the loss of a key employee (56%) are the top three

trends.

• A slight increase in organizations reporting greater BC investment is

reported (23% to 24%). A majority of organizations report ISO 22301 as a

framework for BCM implementation (51%).

About the BCI Horizon Scan 2015 Survey

568 74organizations countries

Top threats to businesses worldwide

1. Cyber attack (85%)

2. Data breach (80%)

3. Unplanned IT & telecom outages (77%)

4. Acts of terrorism (55%)

5. Security incident (55%)

* Ranking was based on number of respondents answering

‘extremely concerned’ or ‘concerned’ to a threat

Tracking threats

• Respondents ‘extremely

concerned’ about this

threat materialising rise

from 43% to 48%

#1

Cyber threats

(unchanged at 1st)

Tracking threats

• Concern over this threat

rises from 74% to 80% this

year

• Recent cases like TalkTalk’s

show how data breaches

can also cause reputational

damage

Data breach

(3rd to 2nd)

1

Tracking threats

• Drops from second (81%) to

third (77%) this year

• In second place in Asia,

MENA regions

• Top threat for healthcare

and education sectors

Unplanned IT and

telecom outages

(2nd to 3rd)

1

Tracking threats

• One of the biggest gainers

in this year’s survey

• Coincides with greater

concern over physical

security threats

Acts of terrorism

(10th to 4th)

6

Tracking threats

• Practitioners who are

‘extremely concerned’

about vandalism or theft

rises from 12% to 17%

1

Security incidents

(6th to 5th)

Tracking threats

• Appears in the top 10 for

the first time since the

survey began

5

Availability of key

talents or skills

(14th to 9th)

Tracking threats

• Almost three-quarters of

organizations (74%) report

at least 1 disruption/year*

• 14% claim losses of at least

€1 million*

2

Supply chain disruption

(5th to 7th)*BCI Supply Chain Resilience Report 2015

Tracking threats

5

Human illness

(8th to 13th)

1

Fire

(10th to 11th)

Top 5 trends

Trends ranked 6th to 10th

6. Potential emergence of global pandemic (48%)

7. Increasing supply chain complexity (47%)

8. Political change (42%)

9. Changing consumer attitudes and behaviour (36%)

10.Energy security/climate change/social unrest (29%)

Further analysis

• Sub-Saharan Africa: Growing potential for social unrest (1st)

• Central and Latin America (CALA): Political change (1st)

• Middle East & North Africa (MENA): Loss of key employee

(1st)

• Asia: Potential emergence of a global pandemic (2nd)

Further analysis

• Manufacturing: Increasing supply chain complexity (1st)

• Health and social care: Emergence of a global pandemic

(1st)

• Finance and IT/telecommunications: New regulations and

increased regulatory scrutiny (3rd)

• Education: Political change (3rd)

Conducting trend analysis

70% of organisations conduct trend analysis to better

understand threats, a slight decline from 73% last year.

Use of trend analysis in informing BCM

A third (33%) DO NOT use trend analysis to guide

BCM programmes, a figure unchanged from last year’s.

Level of BC investment

There is a slight increase in organizations reporting

more investments in BC (23% to 24%).

Use of ISO 22301 in BCM implementation

A majority of organizations report using ISO 22301

as a framework for BCM implementation.

Key takeaways

• Cyber issues continue to dominate the threat landscape

although physical security incidents are seen as a growing

concern for many professionals.

Key takeaways

• The ‘human factor’ (i.e. skills shortage, loss of key

employees) clearly impacts on business performance and

requires a strategic response.

Key takeaways

• Access to important data (e.g. trend analysis results)

remains a barrier for many organizations which impairs

resilience. This strengthens the case for breaking down silos

and encouraging engagement among management

disciplines which build overall resilience.

011 8372 3079

patrick.alcantara@thebci.org

http://uk.linkedin.com/in/patrickalcantara/en

Patrick Alcantara DBCI

020 7010 2466

ian.farrer@pearson.com

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/ian-farrer-acma-mba-llm-7946a513

Ian Farrer MBCI

019 0881 4945

carla.whyte@bsigroup.com

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/carla-whyte-60018025

Carla Whyte

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