BC#Agriculture#Climate#Change#Risk&Opportunity# ... - PICS(both crops & livestock) ! Damage to...
Transcript of BC#Agriculture#Climate#Change#Risk&Opportunity# ... - PICS(both crops & livestock) ! Damage to...
BC Agriculture Climate Change Risk & Opportunity Assessment
Project Background Towards a More Resilient Agriculture Sector
Key Ac;ons
Suppor;ng Adapta;on in BC Agriculture
What is the current capacity of the industry and producers to adapt to change and variability?
What do 2020 climate scenarios mean for agricultural opera;ons in BC regions?
Some examples…
Goals
• To build understanding about the implica;ons of climate change for BC agriculture and associated risks and opportuni;es
• To evaluate the current ability of producers to manage change and challenging condi;ons
• To iden;fy thresholds in the ability of farmers and the agriculture industry in BC to adapt to projected changes, given current capacity and available resources
• To iden;fy gaps, barriers and opportuni;es for planning and adap;ng to climate change at a farm, regional, and industry-‐level
The results of this project are being applied to two new Climate Ac;on Ini;a;ve projects in 2012–2013. The On-‐Farm Adapta-on Prac-ces project will explore appropriate farm level adapta;on prac;ces for BC agriculture. The Regional Agricultural Adapta-on Strategies project will pilot a collabora;ve adapta;on planning process involving local governments and agriculture industry organiza;ons as partners. The full Risk & Opportunity Assessment report series, along with more informa;on on this and other projects of the Climate Ac;on Ini;a;ve, can be found online at www.BCAgClimateAc;on.ca For more informa;on please contact: Erica Crawford Research Associate & Adapta;on Specialist Erica@BCAgClimateAc;on.ca (778) 928-‐1462
Managing through uncertainty & challenging weather is a common element of farming life and producers have developed many ways of adap;ng. However, the scope and scale of climate change is an;cipated to exceed anything previously experienced. Pa`erns of “normal” weather will shic and the frequency of unpredictable and extreme weather events will increase. This will test the capacity of individual agricultural producers to respond through current approaches, prac;ces and technologies. This project was ini;ated by the BC Agriculture Council’s Climate Ac;on Ini;a;ve (CAI) to begin addressing the priori;es iden;fied in the BC Agriculture Climate Change Ac-on Plan. Technical support and exper;se for this project was provided by a project advisory commi`ee with representa;on from the agriculture industry, provincial and federal government agencies and academic researchers. Funding was provided by the Pacific Ins;tute for Climate Solu;ons, Agriculture and Agri-‐Food Canada, BC Ministry of Agriculture and BC Ministry of Environment. The assessment gathered perspec;ves from agricultural producers about their ability to adapt to current and projected challenges and opportuni;es, and to iden;fy approaches, tools and resources required to be`er support adapta;on. In addi;on to extensive background research, original data was collected through interviews and focus groups with producers and specialists across the province.
Enhancing the resilience of BC agriculture to climate change will involve a range of actors, including agricultural producers and industry organiza;ons, all levels of government, ci;zens and research ins;tu;ons. The extensive list of ac;ons included in the reports includes: 1. Ac;ons that support/bolster adap;ve capacity generally • Viable and sustainable farm businesses (long-‐term viability) • Increasing capacity of producer organiza;ons for strategic decision-‐
making & par;cipa;on • New entrants
2. Ac;ons to increase and improve knowledge and informa;onal resources • Research priori;es (weather and climate science, climate impacts,
farm prac;ces, pests and diseases) • Building knowledge across all actors in the system
3. Ac;ons to support integra;on of agricultural adapta;on into planning, decision making and implementa;on at all levels (farm, sector, governments) • Increasing understanding of implica;ons of decisions • Developing decision-‐making tools (modeling, processes, programs,
policies, approaches)
• What is ocen assumed to be an opportunity for agriculture in a northern climate, is in fact a great deal more complex
• Most opportuni;es have associated costs and risk (ini;al investment, trying something new) -‐ climate change doesn’t come with a guarantee
• Producers don’t always see an “opportunity” in transi;oning to new produc;on systems (first may be coming to terms with risk)
• Those who do innovate generally bear the risk and cost, while followers benefit
• May be an opportunity associated with increased apprecia;on of importance of food produc;on, local food, food security
• Producers consistently described the following changes as the most difficult to manage:
• Increased Variability • Changes to average condi-ons and to extremes • Increased Complexity • Cumula-ve impacts
• Producers emphasize the dis;nc;on between risk or opportunity associated with varia;ons on familiar condi;ons vs fundamentally new challenges (eg: ho`er temperatures vs introduc;on of new pests or diseases)
• More likely to feel driven to change due to increasing risks, than pulled by poten;al opportunity
BC Agriculture Climate Change Adaptation Risk + Opportunity Assessment Series ! Provincial Report M"#$% &'(& )*
!"#$% &.' ()**"+, -. /%, 011)%1, 2-34050-31 6 7-5%350"$ 0*7"251 .-+ 89 ":+02)$5)+%, #"1%4 -3 %;7%+5 <)4:*%35 -. +%:0-3"$ 2$0*"5% 12%3"+0-1 .-+ 5=% >?>?1
Issue Changing conditions Potential agricultural impactsIncreasing amounts and variability of precipitation
! Increased fall, winter, spring precipitation
! Increased overall precipitation
! Increased variability and magnitude of precipitation events
! Accumulation of moisture exceeding drainage capacity
! Water-logged soils, localized !ooding
! Lower crop productivity and quality — crop damage & losses
! Increased dif"culty planning for and managing planting and harvesting
! Changes to livestock grazing management
! Nutrient leaching, input losses
! Increased potential for regional water storage
Widespread !ooding ! Increased storminess and precipitation-driven !oodwaters
! Rising sea level
! Dike overtopping and/or dike breach
! Widespread inundation of farmland
! Crop and infrastructure damage and loss
! Relocation or loss of livestock
! Interruptions to supply lines
! Prolonged recovery time
! Salinated soils (in case of sea dike overtopping or breach)
More frequent extreme weather events
! Increased frequency of extreme heat events
! Increased storminess
! Increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events
! Reduced quality and productivity (both crops & livestock)
! Damage to plants, crops, livestock and infrastructure
! Interruption of critical supply lines (feed, inputs etc)
! Damage to regional infrastructure
! Increased risk of !ash !oods, soil erosion, landslides
! Increased awareness of importance of local food supplies (within communities)
Seasonally dry conditions (and water supply effects)
! Reduced proportion of precipitation falling as snow
! Earlier peak !ows
! Reduced runoff and soil moisture in summer
! Decreased summer precipitation
! Higher evapotranspiration rates and crop water demand
! Increased frequency of drought
! Water de"cits
! Increased productivity/quality if irrigation is possible (depending on crop and within speci"c temperature range)
! Less costly and easier to harvest (in drier conditions)
! Reduced productivity/quality if moisture is inadequate
! Water restrictions leading to reduction in management options for extreme heat, sun scalding, frost and pests
! Reduced water quality and quantity for livestock watering
! Better hay production and longer grazing season
! Migration of salt wedge further upstream on the Fraser, cutting off irrigation earlier
! Increased overall demand for water use
! Reduced soil moisture, worsened in case of successive hot and dry years
! Substantial crop/"nancial losses with consecutive years of drought
BC Agriculture Climate Change Adaptation Risk + Opportunity Assessment Series ! Provincial Report M"#$% &'(& )*
!"#$% &.' ()**"+, -. /%, 011)%1, 2-34050-31 6 7-5%350"$ 0*7"251 .-+ 89 ":+02)$5)+%, #"1%4 -3 %;7%+5 <)4:*%35 -. +%:0-3"$ 2$0*"5% 12%3"+0-1 .-+ 5=% >?>?1
Issue Changing conditions Potential agricultural impactsIncreasing amounts and variability of precipitation
! Increased fall, winter, spring precipitation
! Increased overall precipitation
! Increased variability and magnitude of precipitation events
! Accumulation of moisture exceeding drainage capacity
! Water-logged soils, localized !ooding
! Lower crop productivity and quality — crop damage & losses
! Increased dif"culty planning for and managing planting and harvesting
! Changes to livestock grazing management
! Nutrient leaching, input losses
! Increased potential for regional water storage
Widespread !ooding ! Increased storminess and precipitation-driven !oodwaters
! Rising sea level
! Dike overtopping and/or dike breach
! Widespread inundation of farmland
! Crop and infrastructure damage and loss
! Relocation or loss of livestock
! Interruptions to supply lines
! Prolonged recovery time
! Salinated soils (in case of sea dike overtopping or breach)
More frequent extreme weather events
! Increased frequency of extreme heat events
! Increased storminess
! Increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events
! Reduced quality and productivity (both crops & livestock)
! Damage to plants, crops, livestock and infrastructure
! Interruption of critical supply lines (feed, inputs etc)
! Damage to regional infrastructure
! Increased risk of !ash !oods, soil erosion, landslides
! Increased awareness of importance of local food supplies (within communities)
Seasonally dry conditions (and water supply effects)
! Reduced proportion of precipitation falling as snow
! Earlier peak !ows
! Reduced runoff and soil moisture in summer
! Decreased summer precipitation
! Higher evapotranspiration rates and crop water demand
! Increased frequency of drought
! Water de"cits
! Increased productivity/quality if irrigation is possible (depending on crop and within speci"c temperature range)
! Less costly and easier to harvest (in drier conditions)
! Reduced productivity/quality if moisture is inadequate
! Water restrictions leading to reduction in management options for extreme heat, sun scalding, frost and pests
! Reduced water quality and quantity for livestock watering
! Better hay production and longer grazing season
! Migration of salt wedge further upstream on the Fraser, cutting off irrigation earlier
! Increased overall demand for water use
! Reduced soil moisture, worsened in case of successive hot and dry years
! Substantial crop/"nancial losses with consecutive years of drought
Farm businesses struggling with marginal economic
circumstances are not likely to invest in new approaches, equipment or technologies
Management of local and regional physical resources (including land, water and infrastructure) impacts
substan;ally on agricultural adap;ve capacity
Within agricultural organiza;ons, limited financial and human
resources can lead to an “emergency response” orienta;on where
longer term planning/investments are
necessarily set aside
An aging producer popula;on limits planning horizons and strategies for long-‐term resilience
The agriculture sector is already stretched in ways
that undermine its resilience.
Adap;ve capacity varies across regions, and within and across farm types
(see reports for complete list)