BASINS TO WATCH · MSGBC Basin BRIDGING THE ATLANTIC GUYANA-SURINAME & MSGBC BASINS Basin Name DWC...

Dale Emrich

May 2018

BASINS TO WATCHAAPG Annual Convention & Exhibition – Salt Lake City, Utah

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INTERNAL USE ONLY

293 Discoveries Worldwide (Period from 1-Jan-2017 to 31-Mar-2018)

DISCOVERY WELLS SINCE 2017

NLA

APAC

EMEA

Mexico

Brazil

Argentina


INTERNAL USE ONLY

▪ Began with Drillinginfo’s Discovery Wells (DW) database for the world excluding the Lower U.S. 48 and Canada.

• Countries and basins were ranked by Discovery Well Count (DWC) for time period from 1/1/2017 to 3/31/2018.

▪ 91 Basins were then ranked by Sum of Magnitude Rank (SMR) for all discoveries.• Magnitude Rank is a ranking from 1-7 and is based on resource estimates where 1 is the smallest and 7 is

the largest in terms of units for Bcf/Tcf of gas and MMb of oil (liquid).

METHODOLOGY

▪ Analyzed New Field Wildcats (NFW) and success rates (DW/NFW) as well as data from “Wells To Watch – Q2 2018” Report and the Planned Wells/Surveys databases to come up with a Future Potential Score (FPS).

▪ Interviewed and consulted with Drillinginfo’s team of regional experts for the Americas, EMEA, & APAC to adjust and validate overall methodology and approach.

▪ Did not heavily consider geopolitical factors. Didn’t consider worldwide or regional supply/demand figures or company/market situations in overall analysis.

▪ This was a purely “by-the-numbers” approach using Drillinginfo databases to determine which basins were important to watch for the remainder of 2018.


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LET’S GET STARTEDTOP COUNTRIES & BASINS


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PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL DISCOVERIES SINCE 2017

Algeria12%

Egypt 11%

Colombia10%

China 7%

Pakistan 8%

TOP 5 COUNTRIES


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Algeria12%

ALGERIA

Basin Name DWC *

Ghadames (Berkine) 10Oued Mya – Moudir 10Hassi Messaoud Ridge 7

Timimoun-Ahnet 5Atchan Uplift 1Reggane 1Thiemboka Arch 1

* DWC = Discovery Well Count


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Egypt 11%

Basin Name DWC *

Red Sea 8Abu Gharadiq 6North Egypt 6

Alamein Sub (North Egypt) 4Marmarica 4Nile Delta 4Matruh 1




EGYPT


INTERNAL USE ONLY

Colombia10%



COLOMBIA

Basin Name DWC *

Llanos 20Lower Magdalena 4Caguan-Putumayo 3

Middle Magdalena 1Sinu Offshore 1



INTERNAL USE ONLY

Pakistan 8%



PAKISTAN

Basin Name DWC *

Lower Indus Platform 18Kohat-Potwar Foldbelt 3Central Indus Platform 1



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China 7%



CHINA

Basin Name DWC *

Bohai Gulf 10Pearl River Mouth 6Beibuwan 4

Song Hong 1



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OTHER AREAS TO WATCHWITHIN EMEA & APAC REGIONS


INTERNAL USE ONLY

Australia 5%

Indonesia MalaysiaVietnam

6%



INDONESIA, MALAYSIA, VIETNAM, AUSTRALIA

33 Wells, 12 Basins

Basin Name DWC *

Eromanga 13Malay 5Greater Sarawak 4

Nam Con Son 3

Perth 1Kutei 1Lariang 1

North East Java 1North Sumatra 1South Sumatra 1Tarakan 1West Natuna 1



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Norway, UK, Netherlands7%



NORWAY, UNITED KINGDOM, NETHERLANDS, EUROPE

Area Name DWC *

North Sea 12Europe 11Norwegian / Barents Sea 8

Onshore Netherlands 2


Europe4%


INTERNAL USE ONLY

BRIDGING THE ATLANTIC3 IMPORTANT BLOCKS WITH 9 DISCOVERIES (GUYANA & SENEGAL)

4 PLANNED WELLS TO WATCH (SURINAME & GAMBIA)


INTERNAL USE ONLY

MSGBC Basin

BRIDGING THE ATLANTIC

GUYANA-SURINAME & MSGBC BASINS

Basin Name DWC *

Guyana-Suriname 5MSGBC 4


Guyana-Suriname Basin

9 Wells on 3 Blocks, 2 Basins

3 Important Upcoming Suriname Wells:Kosmos – Apetina 1, Aurora 1, Anapai 1 Spud Dates H2-2018 (planned)Blocks 42 & 45

1 Important Upcoming Gambia Well: SAMO 1 Far Gambia –

Block A2Planned Spud Q3-2018


INTERNAL USE ONLY

RESOURCE ESTIMATESADDING “SUM OF MAGNITUDE RANK” INTO THE MIX

TOP 25 BASINS BY COMBINED DWC/SMR SINCE 2017 *

Basin Name (Country)DWC SMR Score -Overall Ranking

Llanos (Colombia) 1

Ghadames (Algeria) 2

Oued Mya - Moudir (Algeria) 3

Eromanga (Australia) 4

Bohai Gulf (China) 5

Lower Indus (Pakistan) 6

Hassi Messaoud Ridge (Algeria) 7

Red Sea (Egypt) 8

Guyana-Suriname (Guyana/Suriname) 9

Louisiana Coastal (US) 10

Pearl River Mouth (China) 11

Salina del Istmo (Mexico) 12

Neuquen (Argentina) 13

Abu Gharadiq (Egypt) 14

Pannonian (Hungary) 15

Malay (Malaysia) 16

Nile Delta (Egypt) 17

North Egypt (Egypt) 18

MSGBC (Mauritania/Senegal/Guinea Bissau) 19

Timimoun - Ahnet (Algeria) 20

Barents Sea Platform (Norway) 21

Lower Magdalena (Colombia) 22

Southern North Sea - Anglo Dutch (Netherlands) 23

Viking Graben (Norway) 24

Alamein Sub Basin (Egypt) 25

Algeria #2,3,7,20,68,69,89

* 91 Basins Ranked Egypt #8,14,17,18,25,30,81


INTERNAL USE ONLY

FUTURE POTENTIAL SCOREWELLS TO WATCH, PLANNED WELLS & PLANNED SURVEYS

TOP 25 BASINS (SHOWING COUNTS FOR KEY WELLS TO WATCH, PLANNED WELLS & SURVEYS) *

* 91 Basins Ranked – Average Success Rate across Top 25 Basins is approximately 55%.

DETAILED ANALYSIS COMMENTS Basin Name (Country)

DWC SMR Score - Overall Ranking

Wells To Watch Count

Planned Well Programs

Planned Surveys

FUTURE POTENTIAL SCORE (FPS)

FPS RANK

Salina del Istmo (Mexico) 12 0 57 5 62 1

Llanos (Colombia) 1 0 44 6 50 2

Yes Deepw ater Frontier Nile Delta (Egypt) 17 0 43 4 47 3

Pannonian (Hungary) 15 0 27 16 43 4

Neuquen (Argentina) 13 0 31 5 36 5

Louisiana Coastal (US) 10 0 29 0 29 6

Guyana-Suriname (Guyana/Suriname) 9 3 20 4 27 7

Yes Possible Law Changes, SH 2030 Ghadames (Algeria) 2 0 5 14 19 8

Yes Frontier / Emerging Basin MSGBC (Mauritania/Senegal/Guinea Bissau) 19 1 9 8 18 9

Red Sea (Egypt) 8 0 11 5 16 10

Abu Gharadiq (Egypt) 14 0 9 4 13 11

Viking Graben (Norw ay) 24 0 11 1 12 12

Low er Magdalena (Colombia) 22 0 8 2 10 13

Barents Sea Platform (Norw ay) 21 1 7 0 8 14

Low er Indus (Pakistan) 6 0 6 0 6 15

North Egypt (Egypt) 18 0 3 3 6 16

Malay (Malaysia) 16 0 3 1 4 17

Timimoun - Ahnet (Algeria) 20 0 1 3 4 18

Southern North Sea - Anglo Dutch (Netherlands) 23 0 0 2 2 19

Alamein Sub Basin (Egypt) 25 0 2 0 2 20

Eromanga (Australia) 4 0 2 0 2 21

Oued Mya - Moudir (Algeria) 3 0 0 0 0 22

Pearl River Mouth (China) 11 0 0 0 0 23

Hassi Messaoud Ridge (Algeria) 7 0 0 0 0 24

Bohai Gulf (China) 5 0 0 0 0 25


INTERNAL USE ONLY

A CLOSER LOOK3 KEY BASINS TO WATCH – NILE DELTA, GHADAMES, MSGBC


INTERNAL USE ONLY

Nile Delta - Egypt

KEY BASIN TO WATCH

Regional Overview Map

DWC RANK = 15THSMR RANK = 14THNFW RANK = 26THSUCCESS RATE RANK = 12THFPS RANK = 3RD

FIRST WELL IN 1923WELL COUNT (TOTAL) = 738RECENT WELL COUNT (2017 TO 20-MAY-2018) = 42

RECENT RATIO = 5.69%WELLS TO WATCH COUNT = 0ACTIVE WELLS = 4

PLANNED WELL PROGRAMS

COUNT = 43

BY THE NUMBERSZohr Discoveries

2015/2016


INTERNAL USE ONLY

Nile Delta - Egypt

KEY BASIN TO WATCH

Regional Overview Map

DWC RANKSMR RANKNFW RANKSUCCESS RATE RANKFPS RANK

FIRST WELLWELL COUNT (TOTAL)RECENT WELL COUNT (2017/Q1-18)RECENT RATIO

WELLS TO WATCH COUNTACTIVE WELLS

PLANNED WELLS COUNT

ASSET TRANSACTIONS COUNT

BY THE NUMBERSZohr

Block

Deepwater Frontier

EGAS International 2018 Bid Round –

Planned Open Date 1-June-2018

“Deepwater Frontier”

EGAS International 2019 Bid Round –

Planned Open Date 1-August-2019

“Deepwater Frontier”


INTERNAL USE ONLY

Nile Delta - EgyptKEY BASIN TO WATCH

TOTAL OPERATORS = 29

TOTAL BLOCKS = 104


INTERNAL USE ONLY

Ghadames (Berkine) - Algeria

KEY BASIN TO WATCH

Regional Overview MapDWC RANK = 4THSMR RANK = 2NDNFW RANK = 2ND SUCCESS RATE RANK = 20TH +FPS RANK = 8TH

FIRST WELL IN 1956WELL COUNT (TOTAL ALGERIA ONLY) = 930RECENT WELL COUNT (2017 TO 20-MAY-2018) = 52RECENT RATIO = 5.59%

WELLS TO WATCH COUNT = 0ACTIVE WELLS = 20

PLANNED WELL PROGRAMS COUNT = 5

OVERVIEW

BY THE NUMBERS


INTERNAL USE ONLY

Ghadames (Berkine) - AlgeriaKEY BASIN TO WATCH

TOTAL BLOCKS = 165

SCOUTING POINTS


SCOUTING POINTS

• 4-May-2018 Further details on Sonatrach’s new strategy and vision (SH 2030) emerge with recommendations for re-structuring the organization; CAPEX figure of $50 Billion (USD) over the next 5 years

• SH 2030 launched by new CEO Abdelmoum Ouid Kaddour in September 2017; Kaddour appointed in March 2017

• No licensing rounds since the 2014 offering in which only 4 out of 31 blocks were awarded; Since then, Sonatrach has favored one-on-one negotiations with companies; Kaddour has asserted that no fewer than 27 IOCs wish to enter Algeria

• First draft of 2005 Hydrocarbons Law amendments to be published by next July,

this is anticipated to improve the fiscal terms for companies wishing to work in Algeria


INTERNAL USE ONLY

MSGBC

KEY BASIN TO WATCH

Regional Overview MapDWC RANK = 21STSMR RANK = 11THNFW RANK = 28THSUCCESS RATE RANK = 16THFPS RANK = 9TH

FIRST WELL IN 1954WELL COUNT (TOTAL) = 267RECENT WELL COUNT (2017 TO 20-MAY-2018) = 10RECENT RATIO = 3.75%

WELLS TO WATCH COUNT = 1ACTIVE WELLS = 0

PLANNED WELL PROGRAMS COUNT = 9

OVERVIEW

BY THE NUMBERS

Atlantic Ocean

MSGBC

Guyana-

Suriname

SAMO 1 (WELLS TO WATCH) FAR GAMBIA – BLOCK A2

PLANNED SPUD Q3-2018


INTERNAL USE ONLY

MSGBCKEY BASIN TO WATCH

TOTAL BLOCKS = 118

SCOUTING POINTS


• 26-April-2018 Samo 1 on Block A2 – Stena “DrillMAX” drillship contracted by FAR to be drilled in Q3-2018

• Samo Prospect is on trend with the Senegalese SNE field and has best estimate prospective resources of 825 Mmbo with a 55% chance of success

• 1st Licensing Round in Guinea – originally planned for October 2017, delayed while Total assesses existing data under a Technical Evaluation Agreement (TEA)

• TEA signed in early October 2017 for 22 of 30 demarcated offshore Guinea blocks

• Licensing Round could take place in October 2018 once Total’s TEA expires

Thank you

28

Come for more talks:Basins to Watch – Central & South America

Robyn Marchand – Technical Advisor

Monday 21st – 915am, 3pm & 430pmTuesday 22nd – 945am & 4pm

Wednesday 23rd – 1130am

Basins to Watch – EMEA & APAC

Dale Emrich – International Product ManagerMonday 21st – 945am, 230pm & 4pm

Tuesday 22nd – 11am & 230pmWednesday 23rd – 945am

Machine Learning in Structural & Stratigraphic Geological Interpretation: Automated Tops Picking & the Release of the APE

Patrick Rutty – Sr Product Manager, TransformTuesday 22nd – 915am, 1130am, 3pm & 430pm

Wednesday 23rd – 915am & 11am

BASINS TO WATCH · MSGBC Basin BRIDGING THE ATLANTIC GUYANA-SURINAME & MSGBC BASINS Basin Name DWC...

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