BASELINE SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS

EXERCISE

SES development using country/region storylines

Drivers

• Factors important for shaping future of your sector (for instance energy, agriculture and food security, health, coastal zone, …) over next 20 years

• Some are given (climate change, population growth)

• Others are uncertain and will vary depending upon decisions made in region (markets, agricultural policy).

Step 1: Identify Drivers to the year 2030

• Think back over last 30 years: what were the key drivers that shaped today’s situation?

• Think of next 20 years: what will be the key drivers?

• How will these key drivers interact?

• Define 4 scenarios

• Develop storyline and if possible add quantitative information.

Questions to ask Yourself when Developing Storylines

• Would globalisation slow or even begin to reverse?

• Will we see changed political entities in the future (eg. strong regionalisation or resource-based boundaries)?

• What pressure would climate change put on developing countries which are less resilient to its impacts? Will these pressures be manageable?

• How co-ordinated will the global political response to climate change be?

• What relationships might evolve between low-income countries and the rest of the world?

• What will become of overseas development aid – where will climate change fit in?

• How high will climate change sit on the political agendas of high and middle-income countries

• Will mitigation mechanisms be effective?

Examples of Questions Towards Development of Storyline for Food Security and Agriculture

• What development and investment choices will your country make in order to meet its projected food security needs?

• What mix of agricultural production and food imports is desired, and how does this mix enhance or detract from adaptation capacity, vulnerability, and food security of the country?

• Will development emphasize globalization and increased reliance on imported food? If so, what type of industrialization is desired and are the resources available to undertake that pathway?

• The questions need to be tailored depending on national circumstances.

SRES A storylines

SRES B Storylines