Baseline Climatology of Viti Levu (Fiji) and Current Climatic Trends Melchior Mataki AIACC-SIS09...
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Transcript of Baseline Climatology of Viti Levu (Fiji) and Current Climatic Trends Melchior Mataki AIACC-SIS09...
Baseline Climatology of Viti Levu (Fiji) and Current Climatic TrendsBaseline Climatology of Viti Levu (Fiji) and Current Climatic Trends
Melchior Mataki
AIACC-SIS09
Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development (PACE-SD)The University of the South Pacific, Suva, FijiTel: (+679) 321 21 51 ; Fax: (+679) 330 91 76
Purpose of PaperPurpose of Paper
To characterize the observed behavior of surface climate at Nadi and Suva
To obtain an impression of on-going climate trends and their impact on exposure units
75% of Fiji population (~800,000), ~210,000 are in the greater Suva (capital) area
Economic activities: Agriculture-based economy with
heavy reliance on a single crop – sugar cane. Other main contributors to GDP are tourism and garment-manufacture - most of these are located in Viti levu
Land mass - 10,388km2
Dry in leeward (Nadi) 200cm annual rainfall (ARF)
Wet on windward east side(Suva) 300cm to 600cm (ARF)
Viti Levu (Fiji)Viti Levu (Fiji)
Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Stations Nadi Suva ~200km apart
Surface temperature and rainfall data 1961 - 2003 Max & Min temperature (T) Daily rainfall (RF)
Climatological StationsClimatological Stations
Baseline period (1961-1990) T & RF analysis Monthly and Annual climatological
means (normals)
Time series analysis on seasonal and annual basis
Data AnalysisData Analysis
Results & DiscussionResults & Discussion
Nadi Suva
Annual Climatological NormalsAnnual Climatological Normals
Monthly Climatological NormalsMonthly Climatological Normals
T-AnomaliesT-Anomalies
Nadi Suva
Max & Min TMax & Min T
RF AnomaliesRF Anomalies
ENSO is the key factor for variability in the Pacific climate system at interannual timescales.
El Nino and RFEl Nino and RF
SPCZ and Heavy Rainfall Events in PICs
Equatorial Indian Ocean temperatures also affect rainfall over the Pacific
• Warmer or colder sea surface temperatures (SST) affect the Earth's atmospheric circulation pattern such as to modulate the intensity of rainfall over most of Tropics.
• A phenomenon known as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been found to affect the monsoon circulation and the MJO itself is affected by the variation of the SSTs.
• The MJO can be characterized by a large-scale eastward movement of air in the upper troposphere with a period of about 20-70 days, over the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere.
Observed Sea level ChangesObserved Sea level Changes
The Island of Viti levu has a low adaptive capacity, high sensitivity to external shocks and high vulnerability to climate change
The inter-seasonal/annual variability in RF significantly affects the socio-economic activities on the island
Warming signals are already evident and there are evidences to suggest that sea level is rising
Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks
Climate variability has significant impacts in Viti levu (also other islands in the pacific) on all strata of socio-economic activity.
While climate disasters (cyclones, floods and droughts) have prime impacts, inter-annual variability continually affects agricultural production, water resources, energy and many other sectors.
Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks
Observed signals of climate change and enhanced climate variability in Viti levu call for a number of critical actions:
Island/region & sector specific adaptation strategies based on proven knowledge
Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks