Baseline Area Analysis

Presentation to Steering Group

May 20

Presentation Structure

• Starting point

• Approach

• Assessment framework and measures

• Some findings

Starting PointThe Ferries Review is to:

"identify where changes and improvements to ferry services can enable the creation of

dynamic and growing economies for our island and remote rural communities.”

This requires identification of specific islands/mainland areas with economies with

such potential

Approach

TABLE 1.1: STRAND A: INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY AND COMPETITIVENESS: MEASURES

Ref

Measure Description

Basis Measure Data Sources

Data Issues/Availability

A1 Companies of Scale

HIE Operating Plan-secure businesses of greater scale

Number of HIE key account companies % of business units with 25+ employees

HIEABI-2007

HIE analysis limited geographically due to data confidentialityABI analysis limited to higher geographies due to data confidentiality. No trend analysis due to changes in survey method

A2 Presence of Key Sectors

GES: Supportive Business Environment-policy focus on a number of key sectors with high growth potential

% of island/area employment in each of the six key sectors: * Creative Industries* Energy* Financial and Business Services* Food & Drink (including agriculture & fisheries)* Life Sciences* Tourism

ABI-20072001 Census

ABI analysis limited to higher geographies due to data confidentiality. No trend analysis due to changes in survey methodNo data available for either Energy or Life Sciences due to mismatch between sectoral definitions and ABI definitionsABI and Census data are not comparable due to differences in definitionsCensus data for food & drink relate to agriculture and fisheries and the data for tourism relate to hotels & restaurants

A3 Presence of Third Sector

GES: Supportive Business Environment-increase the number of highly successful, competitive businesses

Number of HIE key account social enterprises

HIE Analysis limited geographically due to data confidentiality

Ref

Measure Description

Basis Measure Data Sources

Data Issues/Availability

A4 Export Activity

GES: Supportive Business Environment-pursuit of opportunities outside of Scotland

Value of exports Global Connections Survey

Data only available at HIE area office level

A5 New Business Start-Ups

GES: Scotland's performance in Enterprise identified as one of the reasons for Scotland’s poor productivity

Number of start ups per 1,000

population

Committee of Scottish Clearing Bankers: New Business Statistics

Data only available at HIE area office level

A6 UHI HE Activity

HIE Operating Plan: UHI to be capable of transforming the economic, academic and demographic profile of communities

Number of registered HE students

UHI Data not available for some smaller geographies

A7 Educational Qualifications-Secondary School Attainment

GES: Learning, Skills and Well-being- the skills required to contribute to the wider economy.

% of the S4 year group from two years previously achieving 3+ Awards at SCQF level 6 (Higher) or better

Scottish Government

Data only available at local authority level

A8 Workforce Qualifications

GES: Learning, Skills and Well-being-a skilled and educated workforce is essential to building our comparative advantage

Proportion of working age adults with SCQF level 4 qualifications or below

Annual Population

Survey

Data only available at local authority level due to confidentiality and low sample sizes

TABLE 1.2: STRAND B: INCREASE POPULATION: MEASURES

Ref

Measure

Description

Measure Data Sources Data Issues/Availability

B1 Absolute Levels and Trends

% change 1971-2001% change 2001-2007

Censuses-1971-2001 GRO(S) estimates-post 2001

Census data not available for areas with very small populationsGRO data not available for areas with smaller populations. Some areas’ data combined with those of other areas

B2 Age Average (median) age 2001 Census Data not available for some areas with very small populations

B3 Age Structur

e

% of population aged 20-44

2001 CensusGRO(S) estimates-post 2001

Census data not available for areas with very small populationsGRO data not available for areas with smaller populations. Some areas’ data combined with those of other areas

TABLE 1.3: STRAND C: REDUCE REGIONAL DISPARITY: MEASURES

Ref

Measure Description

Basis Measure Data Sources

Data Issues/Availability

C1 GVA GES: Key measure of relative performance

GVA per capita ONS Data only available for some HIE area office levels

C2 Income GES: Differences in income across Scotland act as a drag on our economic performance and potential

Household income per capita

CACI Estimates not available for some areas with very small populations. Results expressed in terms of four quartiles across the islands/areas covered in the baseline analysis

C3 Unemployment

HIE Operating Plan: Extending the high participation rate-unemployment is more acute in peripheral and island areas

Claimant unemployment rateNumber of claimant unemployed of over 6 months duration as a % of total number of claimant unemployed

NOMIS and GRO(S)

Due to data unavailability, rates calculated as % of all men aged 16-64 and all women aged 16-59, rather than as a % of economically active in those age groups. Thus rates shown are not comparable to published official rates. Analysis limited to higher geographies due to data availability

C4 Narrow Economic Base

HIE Operating Plan: Widen the employment base

% of employment in three largest categoriesPublic sector employment as a % of total employment

2001 Census ABI-2007

Categories used are based on SIC 1 digit codesABI analysis limited to higher geographies due to data confidentiality. No trend analysis due to changes in survey methodABI and Census data are not comparable due to differences in definitions used

Findings

Islands/Areas With Strong Concentration in Key Sectors

Financial & Business ServicesBute Lewis

Food & Drink Islay & Jura

Barra & VatersayLismore

Eday

Creative Industries LewisSkye

Tourism Arran

Mull & IonaColonsay

Iona

New Business Starts Per 1,000 Population: 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Argyll & TheIslands

Lochaber,Skye & Wester

Ross

OuterHebrides

Orkney Shetland

Milan and Shetland -

Equidistant from London

Islands/AreasRelatively Dependent on Public Sector Employment

Islands/Areas With Relatively High Unemployment

The G8: Largest Islands/Areas By Population: 2007

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Shetland

Orkney

Lewis

Cowal

Kintyre

Skye

Bute

Arran

The Wee 8: Smallest Islands/Areas By Population:

2001

0 20 40 60 80 100

Fetlar

Flotta

Skerries

North Ronaldsay

Fair Isle

Eigg

Papa Westray

Easdale

1971-2001: Population Change By Number of Islands/Areas

-9

-8-7

-6

-5

-4-3

-2

-1

01

2

3

45

6

Argyll & Clyde Highland Outer Hebrides Orkney Shetland

Main Losers and Gainers: Population Change (%):1971-

2001

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Bressay

Ardn

amurchan

Luing

Ardg

our

Arran Mull

Skye

Skerr

ies

Harris &

Scalp

ayEd

ay Unst

Gigh

a

Papa

Westra

y

North

Ron

aldsay

Population Change 2001-2007:

Argyll &Clyde

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

CowalKintyreButeArranIslay, Jura & Colonsay Mull & IonaCumbraeColl & Tiree

2001=100

Population Change 2001-2007:

Outer Hebrides

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

LewisNorth Uist & BenbeculaHarris & ScalpaySouth Uist & EriskayBarra & Vatersay

2001=100

Population Change 2001-2007:

Orkney

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Orkney North Ronaldsay, Sanday & Stronsay Westray, Papa Westray & Eday Shapinsay, Rousay, Egilsay & Wyre

2001=100

Average Age of Resident: 2001

Under 40Whalsay (36)Fair Isle (37)

Small Isles (38)Shetland (39)

Over 50 Lismore (57)Cumbrae (54)

North Ronaldsay (53)Easdale (51)

Change in Percentage of Population Aged 20-44:

Shetland

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Shetland Unst & Fetlar Whalsay & Skerries Yell

Average Per Capita Household Income

First QuartileArdnamurchan

BressayColl

CowalEasdaleFetlarJura

MorvernPapa Westray

ShetlandYell

Fourth QuartileCannaEgilsay

EiggFlotta

LismoreMuck

North RonaldsayRum

SandayShapinsayStronsay

Wyre