Base, on average, almost precisely modeled actual outcome
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“Consider it Advisable to Launch Attack Force Immediately”[i] : A What if? Investigation and Analysis of the Battle of Midway [ i] Rear Admiral Tamon Yamaguchi, IJN, as quoted by Mitsuo Fuchida and Masatake Okumiya in Midway: The Battle that Doomed Japan (Annapolis, Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 1955), 170.
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“Consider it Advisable to Launch Attack Force Immediately” [i] : A What if? Investigation and Analysis of the Battle of Midway. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Base, on average, almost precisely modeled actual outcome
“Consider it Advisable to Launch Attack Force Immediately”[i]:
A What if? Investigation and Analysis of the Battle of Midway
[i] Rear Admiral Tamon Yamaguchi, IJN, as quoted by Mitsuo Fuchida and Masatake Okumiya in Midway: The Battle that Doomed Japan (Annapolis, Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 1955), 170.
Base, on average, almostprecisely modeled actual
outcome
02
46
810
1214
1618
USNAircraft
Carriers
IJNAircraft
Carriers
USNFighterAircraft
IJNAFFighterAircraft
USNStrike
Aircraft
History
Base Model
Beginning Number of Agents Historical Base
USN Aircraft Carriers 3 3 IJN Aircraft Carriers 4 4 USN Fighter Aircraft 41 41 IJNAF Fighter Aircraft 20 20 USN Strike Aircraft 63 63
Number of Agents Killed Historical Base
USN Aircraft Carriers 0 0 IJN Aircraft Carriers 3 2 USN Fighter Aircraft 1 6 IJNAF Fighter Aircraft 15 15 USN Strike Aircraft 14 16
USNCarriers
USNFighter
Aircraft
USNStrike
Aircraft
IJNCarriers
IJNAFFighter
Aircraft
IJNAFStrike
Aircraft
History
Base
Strike 1
Strike 2
Final Dead (Average)Historical Base Strike 1 Strike 2
USN Carriers 0 0 1 2 USN Fighter Aircraft 1 6 6 16 USN Strike Aircraft 14 16 25 24 IJN Carriers 3 2 4 4 IJNAF Fighter Aircraft 15 15 19 33 IJNAF Strike Aircraft N/A N/A 26 25
Frequency
0
2
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12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 More
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Frequency
0
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12
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 More
Frequency
Frequency
0
2
4
6
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10
12
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 More
Frequency
CV-5 SBD (1000lb)
Base Model
Strike 1
Strike 2
MinMaxStDevAvg
0.00010.0002.1883.300
110
1.9901799734.28
MinMaxStDevAvg
MinMaxStDevAvg
08
1.6449055553.22
Frequency
0
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45
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 More
Frequency
Frequency
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0
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14
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Frequency
CV-5 TBD
Base Model
Strike 1
Strike 2
MinMaxStDevAvg
MinMaxStDevAvg
MinMaxStDevAvg
4.0013.002.137.80
513
2.26319261612.02
513
1.73840179912.28
TF16 F4F (FP)
Strike 1
Strike 2
MinMaxStDevAvg
MinMaxStDevAvg
19
1.8495448973.26
Frequency
0
2
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6
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14
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18
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 More
Frequency
312
2.5726980997.56
Frequency
0
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12
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 More
Frequency
Frequency
0
5
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0 1 More
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Frequency
0
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0 1 More
Frequency
American Carriers
Strike 1
Strike 2
MinMaxStDevAvg
MinMaxStDevAvg
02
0.5424810731.46
12
0.4535573681.72
Japanese Carriers
Base Model
Strike 1
Strike 2
MinMaxStDevAvg
MinMaxStDevAvg
MinMaxStDevAvg
2.0004.0000.4682.160
24
0.6776309273.7
24
0.4819179373.82
Frequency
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10
20
30
40
50
2 3 More
Frequency
Frequency
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45
2 3 More
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Relation between Japanese Carrier dead and Japanese CAP/FP dead (low)
Relation between Japanese Carrier dead and Japanese CAP/FP dead (high)
Relation between American Fighter Aircraft Dead and Japanese Carrier Dead (High)
Relation between American Fighter Aircraft Dead and Japanese Carrier Dead (Low)
Endless number of WHAT IFs?
-Weather-Personality Conflicts (Fletcher & Spruance)-Radio Transmission Range-Lt. Tomonaga’s death-VT-3’s tardiness-Japanese carrier decks devoid of aircraft-Willingness of American pilots to face almost certain death-Ability of VF-6’s pilots (Thatch weave)-USS Yorktown’s late launch schedule-etc., etc., etc...
