B A S I C

B A S I C

VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATiON

Amit Garg

International Climate Change Conference, JohannesburgOctober 19, 2005

Source: India’s Initial national Communication to UNFCCC

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

The Setting

India is a vast country (3.28 million sq km)

Diverse physiographical features

Himalayas, Coastal areas, northern plains, peninsular plateau and islands

Occupies 2.4% of the worlds land area but support 16.2% of the worlds human population

Dominating feature of climate is the Monsoon

Endowed with varied soils, climate, biodiversity and ecological regions

Under such diverse natural conditions, a billion people speaking different languages, following different religions, inhabiting in rural and urban areas live in harmony under a democratic system

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

V & A activity under NATCOM

Modeling of climate projections using GCMs and RCMs Projected temperature, rainfall, extreme events

Assessment of impacts and Vulnerability; different sectors Water resources Agriculture/crop production Forests and natural ecosystems Coastal zones Industry, energy and infrastructure Health; malaria

Preliminary assessment of adaptation strategies Identify constraints to V&A assessments and adaptation

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

V&A – Institutional Arrangement

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

What are the projected changes in temperature on a regional scale?

Projections of seasonal precipitation for the period 2041-60, based on the regional climate model HadRM2 Source: India’s Initial National Communication, 2002

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

What are the projected changes in precipitation on a regional scale?

Projections of seasonal precipitation for the period 2041-60, based on the regional climate model HadRM2 Source: India’s Initial National Communication, 2002

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Climate Projections: SummaryMaximum temperature: increase by 2-4°C during 2050s in regions above 25oN.

Minimum temperature: Increase up to 4oC all over the country.

May exceed 4°C over southern peninsula, northeast India and some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Bihar.

Monsoon Rainfall: marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS)

: Large changes during non-monsoon months

Number of rainy days: Decrease in the number of rainy days over a major part of the country. More in western and central part (by more than 15 days) while near foothills of Himalayas (Uttaranchal) and in northeast India the number of rainy days may increase by 5-10 days.

Extreme Rainfall events: overall increase in the rainy day intensity by 1-4 mm/day except for small areas in northwest India where the rainfall intensities decrease by 1 mm/day.

Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is projected

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

What are the projected changes in river water availability on a regional scale?

River basins of Mahi, Pennar, Sabarmati and Tapi are likely to experience constant water scarcity and shortage.

River basins of the Cauvery, Ganga, Narmada and Krishna are likely to experience seasonal or regular water stressed conditions

Source: India’s Initial National Communication, 2002

Acute physical water scarce conditions Constant water scarcities and shortage Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions Rare water shortages

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Agriculture

Agriculture productivity will be impacted due to Changes in temperature and rainfall Rise in CO2 concentration in atmosphere Occurrence of pests and disease

V&A ASSESSMENT INCLUDED;

Changes in food production with respect to rainfall Effect of increase in temperature and CO2 on simulated grain yields

(rice) Impact of climate change on productivity of irrigated wheat

National assessment based on climate impact modeling not yet feasible

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Impacts of climate change- findings

Projection of a general decrease in rice yield with increase in temperature

Wheat yield are projected to decline from 4% to 24% in different regions

- (under scenario of; CO2of 425 ppm and 2o C warming)

Doubling of CO2 & warming (3o C) accompanied with reduction in rainfall will lead to;

- reduction in yields of several dry-land crops

Loss in farm-level net revenue predicted

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

National level modeling undertaken to assess impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems;

applying the climate projections derived from HadRM2 using BIOME 3 vegetation response model

Forestry Sector

ResultsShift in forest types / boundary:

75% of grids with forests are expected experience changes in forest types

70% of Dry savannah is likely to change to Xeric Woodland

Dry moist savannah in in the North-Western parts, is likely to change to Xeric Shrub land

Moist savanna -located in North-East and parts of the Southern India is likely to be converted into Tropical Seasonal Forest

Productivity:

Increase in net primary productivity (NPP) in more than 75% of the grids with forests

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Biodiversity Climate change is projected to increase species losses, particularly due to shift in forest boundaries

Habitats of many species will move north ward from their current locations

Upward migration of plants in the Himalayas could reduce the alpine meadows and related vegetation, thus impacting the habitats of several high altitude mammals including wild sheep, goat, antelope and cattle.

Increase in precipitation over northeastern India leading to severe floods could place the wildlife in Kaziranga National Park at risk

Expected biome types under climate projections in 2050s.

Present vegetation map

Present Biome Types under CTL run

Dry savannah

Xeric Shrub land

Xeric woodland

Tropical Seasonal Forest

Boreal Evergreen

Tundra

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Natural Ecosystems

Broad preliminary national level assessment of impact of climate change on natural ecosystems (no modeling attempted)

Results

Grasslands: Under enhanced CO2 and increase in temperature, C4 species are likely to have a predominance over C3 plants.

Mangroves: Mangroves just next to the sea will be submerged due to SLR and plants with high salinity tolerance will survive

Increased glacier-melt bringing larger quantities of fresh water will favor mangrove species with least tolerance to salinity

 Coral reefs: Increase in temperature would lead to bleaching of Corals and submergence due to SLR Present distribution of natural

ecosystems in India

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Health: An OverviewImpact of climate change on incidence of malaria in India is assessed

Results

It is projected that by 2080s, malaria will penetrate elevations above 1800 meters and some coastal areas.

10% more states may offer climatic opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year with respect to the year 2000.

The transmission windows in northern states of Jammu and Kashmir and the western state of Rajasthan are likely to increase by 3 to 5 months

In the southern states, however, the window is likely to shorten by 2 to 3 months

ROURK ELA

MANDL A

CHENN AI

CARNIC OBAR

SONAP UR

KHEDA

HARDWAR HALDWANI

SHAHJA HANPUR

ALLAHA BAD

T W O p e n fo r m o nths

4-6

7-9

10-12

N.A

CARNIC OBAR

4-6

7-9

10-12

N.A

T W O p e n fo r m o nths

(a) (b)

Transmission windows of malaria in different states of India (a) in 2000 and (b) in 2080

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Adaptation Strategies Preliminary assessments made for different sectors; including

assessment of current policies and programmes in relation to vulnerability

Most technologies & measures to address current stresses are also relevant to adapt to climate change (water, forest, agriculture, etc.)

Additional technologies & measures needed to address climate impacts

Further analysis needed to identify; adaptation technologies, measures, institutions, financial needs

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Features / Limitations

Impact assessment is made using climate change projections using a single model outputs (RCM Had RM2) and single scenario (IS92a)

Uncertainty of projections of climate parameters at regional level Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts at regional

level (forests, crop production, water) Limited data availability Limited time (<12 months) and resources

PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF V&A MADE UNDER THE NATCOM PROJECT

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Future - V & A

Need for improved and reliable regional climate models and climate projections for impact assessment

Need for improved climate change impact or response models- Sectoral, Regional, & Integrated

Appropriate data generation for modeling Assessment of impacts at regional level & identification of

vulnerable regions, socio-economic systems Development of adaptation strategies Networking of institutions, capacity building, sustained research

teams Financial and institutional support neededwww.natcomindia.org